DraftKings NFL: Week 16 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 16 slate includes 11 games and features Detroit-Chicago as the matchup with the highest total and biggest DFS implications. For the Lions, Jahmyr Gibbs will be massive chalk with David Montgomery out injured while on the Bears side, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen have been left underpriced. Of course, it's never mandatory to roster a Bear on such a big slate with plenty of other good spots to consider. As always, I've highlighted the best value for cash games and some of my favorite ideas for tournaments. Good luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Jahmyr Gibbs at CHI ($7,500)

With David Montgomery (knee) out and the Lions' offense in a prime spot against the Bears, it's no wonder Gibbs projects as the best point-per-dollar value on the slate. He averaged 23 touches for 132 yards in the three games that Montgomery missed last season. He's coming off two touchdowns and 28 fantasy points against the Bills last week. All signs point to him being overwhelming chalky and that just solidifies him as a lock for cash games. 

• WR DJ Moore vs. DET ($5,700)

There's a plethora amount of mid-range value at WR this week. I could've highlighted any of 10 players and felt OK about it. I just wanted to note that no one really stands out because there are too many stellar options and someone like Moore is far from a lock with so much opportunity cost. Nevertheless, he averages seven catches per game in his last five and is underpriced for that type of volume. Consider that through Week 9, he'd never been priced below $6,500. Keenan Allen ($5,300) projects similarly well with the Bears in a favorable spot against a banged-up and below-average Lions pass defense. Both he and Moore had big games when these teams met three weeks ago on Thanksgiving. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Anthony Richardson vs. TEN ($5,400)

QB Michael Penix vs. NYG ($4,500)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. NYG ($8,100)

RB Chase Brown vs. CLE  ($7,700)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs at CHI ($7,500)

RB James Conner at CAR ($7,100)

RB Chuba Hubbard vs. ARI ($6,800)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. CLE ($8,500)

WR Puka Nacua at NYJ ($8,000)

WR Davante Adams vs. LAR ($7,100)

WR Brian Thomas at LV ($6,300)

WR Malik Nabers at ATL ($6,100)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. MIN ($6,000)

WR Jauan Jennings at MIA ($5,900)

WR Jakobi Meyers vs. JAX ($5,800)

WR DJ Moore vs. DET ($5,700)

WR Keenan Allen vs. DET ($5,300)

TE Trey McBride at CAR ($6,200)

TE Brenton Strange at LV ($3,500)

D/ST Buffalo Bills vs. NE ($3,600)

D/ST Indianapolis Colts vs. TEN ($3,000)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. JAX ($2,700)

D/ST New York Giants at ATL ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Detroit Lions (27.25) at Chicago Bears (20.75)

Lions

The major news of the slate is the absence of David Montgomery (knee). I mentioned at the top how Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500) projects as the top point-per-dollar value and he'll be overwhelmingly popular as result. Fading him would be an easy way to get leverage but so would including him in a game stack. Without Montgomery, we could see the Lions employ a more pass-heavy approach and Jared Goff ($6,800) has proven plenty capable of handling that. Last week, I wrote about how I usually avoid rostering him and he responded with a slate-breaking 44 fantasy points after throwing for a whopping 494 yards and five touchdowns against the Bills. I'm backing off that stance so long as Montgomery is out. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900) is coming off 14 catches on 18 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown. He finally saw big volume as Detroit played catchup and he should be in line for a few extra targets. Same goes for Jameson Williams ($5,500) and Sam LaPorta ($4,700), who've both shown promise in recent weeks. Williams salary is down LaPorta is coming off his best game of the season. None will be overly popular either, which is always nice. 

Bears

At this point its difficult to be inspired by the Bears' offense, but at least the matchup is favorable. The Lions' defense has allowed the second-most catches and third-most yards to WRs. It's also decimated by injuries. These teams met three weeks ago on Thanksgiving and Caleb Williams ($5,500) was the chalky quarterback. He struggled mightily in the first half but rebounded to score 26 fantasy points after throwing for three TDs. We could see a similar script Sunday with Chicago likely playing catchup. DJ Moore ($5,700) caught eight of 16 targets for 97 yards and a score in that Thanksgiving matchup while Keenan Allen ($5,300) caught five balls for 86 yards and two TDs. They'll be the popular options while few will roster Rome Odunze ($5,100), who's shown flashes this season, including a two-touchdown game against the 49ers two weeks ago. He makes sense as a leverage option in the larger-field GPPs, but I'd probably stick to Moore or Allen in single-entry. 

• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + RB Gibbs + WR Williams or TE LaPorta + WR Moore
• Favorite Bears Stack: QB Williams + RB Gibbs + WR Moore or WR Allen +/- TE LaPorta

Los Angeles Rams (25.25) at New York Jets (22.25)

Rams

Fresh off nine days rest, the Rams travel to New York to face a Jets team allowing more than 28 points per game in their last five. Matthew Stafford ($5,800) has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of the last eight games. Puka Nacua ($8,000) is the overall WR2 in that span. He's been as good as any WR in the league since returning from injury and is expected to come in about as popular as Ja'Marr Chase ($8,500). Cooper Kupp ($6,500) is coming off a donut but the gap in salary between him and Nacua has never been wider. Prior to that zero, he'd put up 20-plus in three of his last four. He also won't be popular at all, which makes him one on the better leverage options on the slate.

Jets

I wasn't sure if he still had it in him but Aaron Rodgers ($5,600) is coming off his first 30-fantasy point game as a Jet after he threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns against the jaguars last week. Sunday's matchup should be another favorable one as the Rams' defense has allowed the third-most yards per attempt and fifth-most 20-plus yards completions. Davante Adams ($7,100) has had a lot of those recently, including last week when he exploded for nine catches, 198 yards and two scores. It was his second straight nine-catch game and he's drawn double-digit targets in five of his last six. Garrett Wilson's ($6,600) production has been somewhat down as a result, but that just means he won't be popular and would offer leverage. It's a similar situation to Nacua and Kupp. Breece Hall ($6,100) is his cheapest this season, but he's had just 11 and 12 touches in the last two games. Viable in large-field GPPs but far down my list of RBs this week. 

• Favorite Rams Stack: QB Stafford + WR Nacua or WR Kupp + WR Adams or WR Wilson
• Favorite Jets Stack: QB Rodgers + WR Adams or WR Wilson + WR Nacua or WR Kupp 

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase or WR Tee Higgins +/- RB Jerome Ford

QB Sam Darnold + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or WR DK Metcalf

QB Brock Purdy + WR Jauan Jennings or WR Deebo Samuel + WR Tyreek Hill or TE Jonnu Smith

QB Kyler Murray + WR Jalen Coker + TE Trey McBride or WR Marvin Harrison

QB Geno Smith + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or WR DK Metcalf

QB Anthony Richardson + WR Michael Pittman or WR Josh Downs + WR Calvin Ridley or TE Chigoziem Okonkwo

QB Mac Jones + WR Brian Thomas and/or TE Brenton Strange + WR Jakobi Meyeres or TE Brock Bowers

QB Aiden O'Connell + WR Brian Thomas or TE Brenton Strange + WR Jakobi Meyers and/or TE Brock Bowers

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson + RB Chase Brown and/or WR Ja'Marr Chase

QB Michael Penix + WR Malik Nabers + WR Drake London or TE Kyle Pitts

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Bijan Robinson vs. NYG ($8,100)

With Michael Penix making his first career start, we could see Atlanta rely more on the running game. It's a great spot against the Giants, who remain without All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. I wouldn't be surprised to see Robinson more involved in the passing game either as the Falcons should manufacture some high-percentage completions for Penix. Leverage is the final selling point, with most of the ownership in that range expected on Gibbs and Brown, Robinson becomes a great way to differentiate. Pairing him with Malik Nabers makes for an appealing skinny stack. 

• TE Trey McBride at CAR ($6,200)

The narrative of McBride being held without a receiving touchdown this season on 89 catches for 938 yards has been beaten to death, but he was stopped at the 1-yard line again last week. Despite that, he still topped 14 fantasy points for the fourth consecutive game as he continues to see a massive target share, averaging more than 12 per game in that span. Sunday's matchup against Carolina is as good as it gets on paper. No team has allowed more fantasy points to TEs than the Panthers. You'd think this has to be the week he finally finds the end zone. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Chuba Hubbard vs. ARI ($6,800)

Last week, Hubbard was the most popular running back as Carolina were home favorites for the first time in two years against a porous Cowboys defense. He couldn't get anything going and finished with 14 touches for 49 yards. He projects well again this week despite a tougher matchup against Arizona. The Cardinals play slow and are sizable favorites, neither of which favor Hubbard seeing big volume. His salary has climbed to a season-high and to a point where he needs to be compared with the elite options at the position. All of whom are playing for favorites with higher implied point totals and more likely to hit a ceiling. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Malik Nabers at ATL ($6,100)

Despite 10 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown last week against the Ravens, Nabers' salary inexplicably continues to fall. He's now $1,500 cheaper than he was in Week 10 and have about as favorable a matchup as you could ask for, inside the dome in Atlanta. The Falcons have struggled against the pass and No. 1 WRs all season due to an inability to cover and create pressure. The Giants also get Drew Lock back, which may not sound like much but he's a clear upgrade to Tommy DeVito when it comes to Nabers' upside. He's coming off his first TD since Week 3 and this looks like a great spot to build on that, especially with Penix making his first start on the other side. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Anthony Richardson vs. TEN ($5,400)

QB Mac Jones at LV ($5,200)

QB Aidan O'Connell vs. JAX ($5,100)

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson at CIN ($4,800)

RB Jerome Ford at CIN ($5,600)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. DET ($5,600)

RB Tyrone Tracy at ATL ($5,500)

WR Josh Downs vs. TEN ($4,900)

WR Jalen Coker vs. ARI ($4,200)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. ATL ($4,100)

WR David Moore vs. ARI ($3,600)

TE Brenton Strange at LV ($3,500)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo at IND ($3,400)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Jaylen Waddle vs. SF 

Waddle is doubtful after injuring his knee last week. His absence could mean a bump in target share for Tyreek Hill ($6,900), who would offer nice leverage in GPPs as he won't be overly popular. Malik Washington ($3,700) caught five passes for 52 yards after stepping in for Waddle and would be expected to fill the void again. Jonnu Smith ($5,500) should continue to see an expanded role as well. 

Weather

• As temps get colder and weather becomes more of factor, dome games and warmer climates become more appealing to target for game stacks. I don't see anything specific to worry about, but I'll be checking forecasts Sunday and won't be going out of my way to roster QBs/WRs playing in temps below 20 degrees or in wind/precipitation.