East Coast Offense

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Week 18

I hate the 17-game season. It provides no benefit except to the NFL's revenues, it overtaxes the players and is likely to increase injuries and diminish the quality of play in the playoffs. It also makes every team have a disparate number of home/road games and undermines the import of season-long records, which now have to be adjusted to per-game basis. If someone were to throw 56 TD passes, he'd have the cosmetic record, but still be behind Peyton Manning's 2013 pace. It also screws up our standards for evaluating player performance which were calibrated to a 16-game slate -- things like 100-catch seasons, 1,000-yard rushers or 5,000-yard passers don't mean what they used to. It's all cost and no benefit for anyone not directly profiting from it.  

MVP Race

The NFL MVP race is interesting this year as there is no clear-cut favorite. Tom Brady will probably have north of 40 TD passes, but his YPA is 7.4, and the NFL average is 7.2. Kyler Murray has been the most efficient quarterback (8.9 YPA) and he's on the team with the best record, but he's missed three games. Matthew Stafford (8.2 YPA, 30:9 TD/INT) is in the running, but the Rams might be the five seed, and we can stick a fork in Josh Allen (7-5 record, 7.3 YPA.) Aaron Rodgers (9-2, 23:4 TD:INT, 7.7 YPA) would be my pick, but "immunization-gate" will probably cost him with voters. That the Patriots beat the Bills with Mac Jones attempting only three passes closes the door on the rookie's unlikely bid even if the Patriots hold onto the top seed in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes (7.1 YPA) hasn't played at an MVP level, either, and Dak Prescott (7.6 YPA, 23:8 TD:INT, no rushing stats these days) is a long shot. 

Two non-QBs deserve consideration -- Jonathan Taylor (5.6 YPC, 1,684 YFS) is lapping the field in scrimmage yards (second is Cooper Kupp with 1,361.) Speaking of whom, Kupp has the receiving triple crown (100-1,366-11) by a good margin. The QB is always the MVP if you compare him to league average at the position, but someone else can win if you consider it an award for the player who differentiates himself the most. Also, keep in mind, none of the QBs is having a modern-QB MVP-worthy year. Last year Rodgers had a 48:5 TD/INT ratio, two years ago Lamar Jackson went 36:6 in 15 games with 1,206 rushing yards, and three years ago Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards and 50 TDs, with 8.8 YPA. There's no QB remotely close to that level this year, opening the door for Taylor, or the long shot Kupp. 

While my pick would be Rodgers, my guesses are Murray, Brady, Taylor, in that order. (I realize the books have Brady as a heavy favorite, but Murray and his team have had the better season so far.) If I could get better than 60:1 on Kupp, I'd take it, though. 

Week 14 Sporcle

Apropos of George Kittle's 181-yard outburst Sunday, can you name every tight end in NFL history who has had a 175-yard receiving game?

Guessing The Lines

At first glance, I'm on the Vikings and Broncos, with a small lean on the Buccaneers, though of course I reserve the right to change my mind in Beating The Book. 

Week 13 Observations

• Damien Harris (10-111-1) was the star of the game, thanks to a 64-yard TD run in the first quarter. When you stack the box, it's bad news if the runner does break through. Unfortunately, Harris hurt his hamstring late in the first half and aggravated it in the third quarter.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (24-78-0) looked good despite the inefficiency, as he ran hard into the teeth of stacked boxes all night. If Harris is out for any duration, Stevenson could be a big factor in the fantasy playoffs.
• Josh Allen usually had time to throw, but rarely had anywhere to go with the ball, and windy conditions didn't help.The Patriots pass defense is again the best in the league, and they severely limited
• Stefon Diggs (7-4-51-0) did about as well as one could expect against that defense with that wind. Be happy with the 9.1 PPR points as it could have been worse.
• Teddy Bridgewater is a backup QB, not a starter
• Javonte Williams (23-102-0, 9-6-76-1) is a monster. He'll be a first-round pick in drafts next year.
• Patrick Mahomes wasn't especially accurate. His receivers didn't help with some drops, but touch on short passes isn't his forte. The Chiefs defense looks good, but forcing Brett Favre to be Drew Brees is not ideal. The offense still hasn't hit its stride.
• The Pete Carroll Seahawks are hilarious. Only he tries a 56-yard FG with Jason Myers that had no chance, and only he goes on fourth-and-short late when a FG puts them up two scores, gets the first down and then loses the ball on a fumble a few plays later. The Seahawks won anyway, but their games are always so bizarre.
• Jimmy Garoppolo throws a nice ball, but he had two senseless picks that turned the game.
• Elijah Mitchell (22-66-1, 3-3-18-0) was a workhorse again, despite leaving the game briefly with a head injury.
• George Kittle (12-9-181-2) had a monster game, and it was about time. It's odd the team can never get more than one of its star pass catchers going at the same time.
• Adrian Peterson (11-16-1) might score a TD for every team in the NFL before it's done, but he's beyond washed up. Rashaad Penny (10-35-0, 1-1-27-0) looked pretty spry. He just needs to stay healthy for more than 10 minutes.
• Russell Wilson is still not himself. I wonder if we'll ever see the real version in 2021.
• The Ravens went for two against the Steelers and lost as Lamar Jackson missed an open Mark Andrews at the goal line. I'm not against it – late in the year when players are banged up, you don't want to play an extra period if you can avoid it.
• Diontae Johnson (11-8-105-2) started slowly and dropped a would-be TD on a perfectly thrown deep ball from Ben Roethlisberger. But he always gets his, and after Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson, has a good case for WR4.
• Speaking of Kupp, another 10-8-129-1 game keeps up his historic pace.
• Sony Michel (24-121-1, 4-3-8-0) was the workhorse in Darrell Henderson's absence. Expect a timeshare at least going forward.
• Trevor Lawrence is in a bad system, with terrible receivers and a bad coach, but he himself has shown almost nothing. Usually, there are a least some sparks of greatness for a prospect of his stature.
• Antonio Gibson (23-88-0, 6-5-23-1) has been the bell cow many had expected the last two weeks.
• With Kenyan Drake breaking his ankle, Josh Jacobs (13-52-1, 9-9-38-0) saw a huge workload as a receiver, but Jalen Richard should be back eventually.
• Jonathan Taylor (32-143-2) is no longer yielding carries to scrubs while games are still in doubt.
• Gardner Minshew got it done for us, and he'll go into the pantheon of heroes for the Team of Destiny that includes Justin Tucker, Cordarrelle Patterson, Thomas Morstead and Nick Folk, among others.
• Dallas Goedert (6-6-105-2) got a boost from Minshew, but then again, it might have just been the Jets defense that left him wide open on two deep throws.
• Miles Sanders (24-120-0, 3-3-22-0) looked great before aggravating an ankle injury in the second half. Kenneth Gainwell (12-54-1, 5-5-33-0) put up nice numbers, but looked shaky on a couple juggled passes.
• Zach Wilson looked credible in the first half then did nothing in the second. At least he showed a spark, which is more than I can say for Lawrence.
• Elijah Moore (12-6-77-1) is the Jets' WR1 by a mile now. Corey Davis aggravated his groin injury during the game too.
• I can't sugarcoat it – the Mike Glennon Giants are a doormat. I'm not sure they'd be favored on a neutral field against anyone.
• Saquon Barkley (11-55-0, 9-6-19) looked okay, but it's hard to see any down-the-stretch ceiling in this offense, especially with Daniel Jones out indefinitely. (They do get a soft Chargers run defense next week, but don't get too excited.)
• The Dolphins, who started 1-7, are in the playoff hunt. They're the poor man's Patriots.
• I started Jared Goff over Matt Ryan at the last minute in an important league. My reasoning was that "Goff" is a contraction of "Go off." Not only did he do so, but he beat the Vikings on a heroic last-second TD pass, knocking five people out of the Circa Survivor pool.
• Justin Jefferson (1-4-0, 14-11-182-1) was the second-round receiver to draft among the seemingly interchangeable DeAndre Hopkins-Calvin Ridley-A.J. Brown-DK Metcalf-Stefon Diggs tier.
• I get the Chargers and Bengals wrong almost every week.
• Ja'Marr Chase (8-5-52-0) dropped a perfectly thrown deep ball and has cratered after a blazing start. Six weeks ago, he was the second coming of Jerry Rice, and now Tee Higgins (14-9-138-1) is the clear No. 1 on the team.
• I'm too lazy to check, but I have to be 1-11 against the spread on the Cardinals. I always doubt them, and they always deliver, except when I backed them at home against the Packers.
• Kyler Murray's 10 carries and two rushing touchdowns are a sign he's back to full health. When Murray runs, he's QB1.
• The Buccaneers, who once had too many mouths to feed, now have a narrow tree: Leonard Fournette (13-44-0, 8-7-48-1), Chris Godwin (1-9-0, 17-15-143-0), Mike Evans (10-7-99-0) and Rob Gronkowski (8-4-58-2.) That's it. No one else got more than one catch or carry.
• Cordarrelle MVPatterson (13-78-0, 5-3-18) gets it done against everyone. What a waste teams didn't use him in the offense earlier in his career.
• Taysom Hill threw four picks and tossed some other passes into the turf, but he was under pressure all game and looked great as a runner. He's a top 10-ish QB for the stretch run, especially when weather affects the more pass-dependent QBs.
• Mark Ingram (10-28-0, 2-1–2-0) looked okay, but his best run was called back on a hold.
• Deonte Harris ( 8-4-96-1) is dangerous with the ball in space, but it's impossible to predict who will get the targets for the Saints.
• Dak Prescott is no longer a mobile quarterback. He made some nice throws into tight windows, but the ceiling isn't what it was.
• Tony Pollard (7-71-1, 4-2-3-0) had a 58-yard TD run, but otherwise was stuffed along with Ezekiel Elliott (13-45-0, 3-2-2-0.)
• CeeDee Lamb (13-7-89-0, 1-33-0) was the only Cowboys receiver of note, though Michael Gallup (9-5-36-1) made a nice TD grab on a fade to the corner.
• It was amazing how many chances the Saints had to cover the six-point spread until the game-sealing pick-six.