East Coast Offense: Does It Scale?

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Does It Scale?

The question is often asked of businesses that solve a local problem that might not have broader application, because different scales often require different solutions. That might seem self-evident, but when we analyze what works in sports, for example, we sometimes seem to ignore that distinction. 

To take an example, teams qualify for the playoffs by winning a certain percentage of their regular season games. Regular season games include contests against the weakest, average and strongest teams, and it could be the case the most reliable way of consistently winning 60-65 percent of them is to create rosters and schemes designed to clean up against the league's worst teams, be above average against the average teams and win at least one third of the time against the top ones. Conversely, you could imagine a team that was a bigger problem even for the best teams, but that was also more vulnerable to upsets from lesser teams due to its volatile style and personnel. 

But most analytic models simply look at a team's performance, adjust for strength of schedule and spit out a result. In other words, every opponent is only quantitatively different and adjustable, rather than qualitatively different, i.e, a challenge of a different scale. It's assumed therefore if you do better against the weaklings, you'll do better against anyone. But it strikes me as plausible that optimizing for beating weak teams might not be the same as optimizing for beating strong ones. That, given the salary cap constraints and otherwise finite resources, you often have to choose your style and personnel for one or other. 

To pull this out of the abstract and cite some concrete examples, the early 2000s Oakland A's made the playoffs almost every year with their "Moneyball" strategy that emphasized on-base percentage and power over defense and contact. But they always got bounced early in the playoffs. Maybe it was just a small sample run of bad luck. But it also might have been that when you get to the postseason, you face mostly good pitching staffs, rotations shorten, you rarely see the soft underbelly of middle relievers, and suddenly your beer-league-softball-style team isn't drawing walks, and they're failing to make enough contact to generate base hits. It might be that the optimal strategy for beating the average pitching staff didn't scale well to the postseason. The Darryl Morey Rockets shot a million threes and were in the playoffs every year, but maybe that too is great on average, but breaks down in seven-game series against the league's top teams. (These examples are speculation, of course, as there are many reasons you could cite as to why those perennially good regular season teams never broke through.)

With respect to the NFL, I look at playoff teams like the Colts and Browns and see squads that don't scale. Probably the Steelers too. For starters, they have statues at quarterback (well, Baker Mayfield tries to scramble, but not very effectively.) Luckily they all have good offensive lines, but better defenses will get through, and then what? The ability to read a defense pre-snap, call audibles and have ideas of what to do if the protection breaks down will help, but if your quarterback lacks arm strength, mobility and the ability to throw on the run, there's only so much you can do in even moderately adverse conditions. 

Teams with elite defenses can overcome this -- have your limited QB check it down or throw it away, punt, live to fight another day. But given 2020 rules where playing defense is borderline illegal, such a scenario is harder to come by. The best case is to have an offense with a playmaking QB and skill players, and a defense that gets heat on the opposing QB often enough. 

I could be wrong about the specifics too -- maybe Philip Rivers' dink and dunk to the backs and tight ends with occasional shot-puts deep will work now that he has an elite offensive line and Jonathan Taylor looks like the guy we thought he was when the Colts drafted him. Maybe Nick Chubb will bludgeon people and make Mayfield's play action effective enough. The NFL will often surprise you. But while I'd give the Colts a better chance of beating a weak team than the Titans, I'd give the Titans a better chance to win against a top one like the Saints or Chiefs. 

(The Saints are an odd case because they have one of the best defenses in the league, and while Drew Brees (if healthy) falls into the Rivers/Roethlisberger category, in Sean Payton's system and with Alvin Kamara doing so much after-the-catch work on checkdowns, maybe he's so efficient, he can scale without the arm or legs. The GOATS -- Peyton Mannings, peak Tom Bradys and peak Brees' -- will always have a puncher's chance, even if they lack some of the nearly-essential 2020 QB skills. Then again, last year's version of Brees got bounced by the Vikings in the first round.)

Week 15 Sporcle Quiz

Apropos of Davante Adams' 14 TD catches in 11 games (a 20 TD pace over 16 games), can you name all the players to catch 16 or more TDs in a single season?

Guessing The Lines

I don't mind being far apart from the market, but I had a brain freeze when I guessed the Indy-Houston line would be 13! I forgot only two weeks ago the Texans had the ball at the two-yard line in the closing minutes, going for the win. In any event, I especially like the Broncos and Eagles, and I'm surprised the Football Team is getting so many points at home. 

Week 14 Observations

• The Steelers dink and dunk passing game and inability to run won't be enough against good teams. Their defense is good, but it's not all-time good.
• Josh Allen struggled early but found himself in the second half, mainly by targeting Stefon Diggs (14-10-130-1.) The Bills are the second best team in the AFC and have a puncher's chance against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
• Brandon Aiyuk (16-10-119) should be the only game in town now that Deebo Samuel is hurt again. Get your 2021 49ers futures now for when those two and George Kittle are on the field at the same time.
• The Giants really blew it, beating the Football Team in overtime last year in Week 16. Instead of Andrew Thomas, they would have had Chase Young.
• Without Julio Jones, Matt Ryan is just a guy. And the best Falcons pass play of the day was by Russell Gage, who threw a perfect 39-yard TD to Calvin Ridley.
• Justin Herbert still passes the eye test, and the Falcons defense has improved, but Herbert's last five games by YPA are: 5.8, 7.5, 6.1, 3.9 and 5.5. And the 7.5 was a home game against the Jets.
• Eagles-Saints announcer Daryl Johnston must have been shrooming. How else could he seriously claim Doug Pederson has a tough call to make between Jalen Hurts, who played flawlessly in his first start against one of the league's best defenses, and Carson Wentz, the league leader in sacks, fumbles and picks? It goes to show when you're an insider like Johnston, and presumably friendly with players, coaches and front office people, how skewed and divorced from common sense your views can become. Now multiply that by 1000, and consider the information we get from plugged-in corporate media about politics and foreign affairs.
• Hurts was decisive, got rid of the ball when he had to, threw no picks and took no sacks. His only blemish was a late fumble as the Eagles were running out the clock. He's already the best healthy QB in the NFC East by a mile.
• Taysom Hill wasn't bad – even if he missed a couple open throws – and finally got Alvin Kamara (11-50-1, 10-7-44-0) involved. That's good news for Kamara owners because Drew Brees might not be back until Week 16.
• There's not much to say about Packers-Lions. That game went almost exactly how you'd expect it to go, though Marvin Jones got jobbed of a great 40-something-yard sideline catch just outside the end zone.
• The Jets are hilarious, missing three of four field goals, all from inside 45 yards. (They're hilarious for other reasons, too, obviously.)
• Jonathan Taylor (20-150-2, 2-2-15) crushed it for me in the consolation round of the NFFC Primetime, as did a now healthy T.Y. Hilton (7-5-86-2.)
• The Raiders defense is terrible, arguably the worst in the league.
• Josh Jacobs jokingly posted on Instagram that he wasn't playing Sunday, only to suit up, start and handle his usual workload. Given how seriously people take fantasy football (and how much money changes hands when you include DFS), that's playing with fire.
• Is Derrick Henry (26-215-2, 2-2-7) especially good in December (fantasy playoffs), or is it just a scheduling coincidence the last three years?
• Gardner Minshew is younger and obviously better than Mike Glennon. Odd he was held out even though his thumb had healed.
• I didn't catch much of the Carolina-Denver game, but Mike Davis (two TDs, five catches, 93 total yards) was a difference-maker in Round 1 and has a nice matchup against the Packers next week if Christian McCaffrey is still out.
• Dan Bailey not only missed a 46-yard field-goal attempt and a 54-yarder, but also a 36-yarder and an extra point. And while there's no shame in missing a 54-yard try, the kick was laughably bad, as though he were aiming for an alternate set of uprights 30 yards to the right. This year had been the golden era of NFL kicking too – until the last two weeks.
• Dalvin Cook (22-102-1, 4-2-8) didn't have a problem against one of the league's top two run defenses.
• Tom Brady missed two wide open throws, one to Chris Godwin and one to Rob Gronkowski, but settled down in the final three quarters. There's nothing wrong with his arm, but something still isn't tight in the Buccaneers' passing game.
• Like Jonathan Taylor, Ronald Jones (18-80-1, 1-1-3-0) has finally established himself as the lead back beyond all doubt. In fact, Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch, with LeSean McCoy's of all corpses, handling the change of pace duties. Fournette is pushing into Trent Richardson territory.
• Daniel Jones (hamstring) probably shouldn't have suited up, and maybe his performance had something to do with that. But he regressed badly, holding the ball way too long and fumbling three times (losing one.) There's decent chance the Giants will be looking for a new quarterback this offseason.
• Dion Lewis fumbled a kick return, though it's not his fault Bruce Lee was on the coverage team (the defender karate-kicked the ball out of his hands, something that was missed by the officials.)
• The Giants defense actually played well, holding the Cardinals to 4.9 YPP, but the offense hung it out to dry too many times. The Cardinals had a 38:22 time-of-possession advantage.
• Kyler Murray was okay, but nothing special. He hurt the Giants a couple times with his scrambling for first downs and made one great throw in the face of a blitz to Dan Arnold for a TD.
• Patrick Mahomes threw three picks, took three sacks, and it still took a furious comeback and last-minute field goal for the Dolphins even to cover a 7.5 point spread at home.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire (16-32-0, 6-5-59) finally got work in the passing game. Le'Veon Bell (2-21-0, 3-2-14) was a minor factor.
• The Dolphins have lost all their skill players and even most of the backups. Their leading rusher was DeAndre Washington, their leading receivers Lynn Bowden (9-7-82-0) and Mack Hollins (9-5-66-0) after Mike Gesicki (6-5-65-2) and DeVante Parker (2-0-0) left with injuries.
• Another player back from the dead, A.J. Green (7-6-62-1) scored points from the waiver wire, but Gio Bernard was benched for a half after losing a fumble for the first time since 2013. A real coach like Zac Taylor makes sure Bernard isn't suddenly getting lax about ball security.
• Andy Dalton got his revenge, but he didn't need to do much, attempting only 23 passes.
• The Bears, who were actually underdogs, destroyed the Texans. Even the great Deshaun Watson needs pass protection and competent wide receivers. Even Mitchell Trubisky (revenge game for being unfavorably compared to Watson ahead of whom he was drafted) can light it up against a terrible defense.
• Lamar Jackson missed some open receivers, notably Mark Andrews for an easy would-be long TD that Jackson overthrew. He also slipped several times on the muddy field, resulting in four sacks and costing him opportunities to run or throw. Still, Jackson went 9-124-2 on the ground, didn't turn the ball over and cashed in big when it counted most. The Ravens are still dangerous, even if their defense is average at best right now.
• Gus Edwards (7-49-2, 1-1-4-0) ran with more vision and purpose than J.K. Dobbins (13-53-1), and Mark Ingram didn't see a single touch.
• Mark Andrews got involved late and should have had a long TD.
• Baker Mayfield (343 yards, two TDs, 23 rush yards, one rush TD), made one bad mistake, a near pick-six that resulted in a Ravens TD. Otherwise, he was pretty good, though he scrambles too much for someone that slow. I'd like to have seen them run more early on, but Mayfield had to throw once they got down 34-20.
• Nick Chubb (17-82-2, 2-2-21-0) ran hard, but he's under-utilized. He should get the Derrick Henry treatment, and he's a better pass catcher than Henry. They did line Chubb out wide a couple times, too. Kareem Hunt (6-33-1, 7-6-77-1) is a good player too, but he's not the early-down hammer Chubb is.
• Donovan Peoples-Jones (5-3-74) had his second straight strong game. He looks like a player to me, and Rashard Higgins (10-6-68-1) isn't bad, either. It would be cool to see this team with a healthy Odell Beckham, but with those two and Jarvis Landry (9-6-52), their receivers aren't bad.
• Landry, by the way, threw another nice pass, a 12-yard completion to Chubb. He's 4-of-4 this year, and would definitely have been an upgrade over the Denver QBs a couple weeks ago. (Not sure he's better than Russell Gage though.)
• Justin Tucker is the greatest kicker of all time, and it's not especially close. In fact, I don't think there's another NFL player at any position who separates himself from the pack by such a wide margin. (I realize Jerry Rice's career numbers separate him for the WR pack, but that's mostly due to longevity.) And it's not just that Tucker made the 55-yard game winner – it's that you knew he'd make it ahead of time and that the kick was never in doubt.