East Coast Offense: Entitlement

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Entitlement 

I wrote several drafts of this section earlier, none of which satisfied me. Two were diatribes about the inability of some probabilistic forecasters to take the L when events they deemed improbable occurred, and one was more amazement about Dalton Del Don and I surviving every week by the narrowest of margins in the $6M Circa contest. But I've discussed both things at length before, so I'll just add something that occurred to me today as I was walking across town to get a long-overdue haircut:

I haven't enjoyed an NFL season this much since 2000. This is in part because I've let go, to an extent, of probability-based entitlement and also because I've improved my forecasting process (it seems.) The former might actually have something to do with the latter. Embracing what is over what should be always makes observations more acute and less distorted. I've also tried to recreate what fueled my good ATS seasons in 1999-2000, when I'd go over the games with my brother on the phone twice a week before writing up the column. It wasn't that he was providing the picks (neither of us even watched all the games as we didn't have Sunday Ticket), but that being forced to go over them several times with gaps in between allowed me to get clear on them. One mistake I've made since is focusing too much on "process," i.e, some method or other, or using more data, when the real process is letting my unconscious brain just sit on it until the answers come. Nothing's perfect, of course, but that's okay -- it's good to let go of process-based-entitlement too. 

Week 9 Sporcle Quiz

Can you name all the running backs with 100 rushes, 20 catches and eight or more games to average 5.0 YPC and 8.0 YPT?

Guessing The Lines

At first glance, I'm on the Cowboys, Ravens, Dolphins and Giants, but of course I reserve the right to change my mind in Beating The Book. 

Week 8 Observations

• Patrick Mahomes is all dink and dunk these days, and his rhythm is off. He's not even that accurate, and scrambling around to buy a check-down doesn't have the same payoff as doing it for a 50-yard TD. He also kept snapping the ball with 15 seconds left on the play clock during the team's final drive, leaving the Giants with extra time on their final drive (not that it mattered.) But this iteration of the Chiefs offense has been solved.
• Tyreek Hill (18-12-94-1) is the only player who resembles his glory-days self. He caught passes thrown behind him and escaped tackles for extra yards and first downs.
• Travis Kelce (7-4-27-0) lost a fumble and didn't look in sync. It's far easier to gash the defenses for deep-intermediate plays when everything's wide open. Now the field looks smaller and tighter. Kelce is still the top TE for now, but he's not the difference maker he was last year.
• Darrel Williams (13-49-0, 6-6-61-0) has the role we thought would go to Clyde Edwards-Helaire – pass-catching and third-down back. But Edwards-Helaire never played with check-down Mahomes, and Williams is competent enough to keep the third-down role even after CEH returns. Derrick Gore (11-48-1) also ran hard and scored the TD.
• Daniel Jones shows flashes, but as much as I love the guy's tenacity and toughness, I don't think he'll going to make it. I hope I'm wrong, but I see him as a high-end backup for the next decade. The Giants should draft a QB in 2022.
• Devontae Booker (15-60-0, 6-5-65-0) was the only Giants skill player of note. He's a solid backup, but Saquon Barkley would have broken off a couple big plays with the holes Booker had.
• Sterling Shepard got hurt again. He's a quality route runner and has good hands, but he rarely stays healthy for long. Kadarius Toney came back from his ankle injury, but left the game with some other ailment briefly. Hopefully, he can hold up, because there's no doubt about the talent.
• The Cowboys are so much better than the Vikings, the disparity in quarterback and the venue simply didn't matter.
• Cedrick Wilson throws a nice ball -- he's a better passer than anyone the Jets have had since Joe Namath.
• The Vikings took away the run and the occasional deep ball, but happily conceded the first down on 3rd-and-long all day.
• The Jaguars are so bad they don't even target their receivers in a blowout loss. I don't understand the purpose of that team. They made Geno Smith look like Drew Brees.
• The Patriots (4-4) almost always get better as the season goes on. Justin Herbert had nowhere to go with the ball for most of the day. I'm getting a 2001 vibe from New England.
• Tom Brady pulled a Rivers™ on the penultimate drive, throwing the game-sealing pick six and effectively destroying his chances of making the Hall of Fame. Through eight games, Brady is on pace for 5,300 passing yards and 50 TDs in a 16-game season, and I think the team will do what it can to get him Peyton Manning's single-season records.
• Trevor Siemian seemed to have evolved since we last saw him, doing his best Alex Smith impression. Jameis Winston looks like he might be done for the year, which means Taysom Hill is probably the QB, once he gets unconcussed.
• The Saints are 5-2 with wins over the Packers and Buccaneers, but losses to the Giants and Panthers.
• I keep taking the points with the Football Team, and they keep costing me. Red-zone offense is a thing apparently, and they don't have it. They were gifted one last chance at the end when Melvin Gordon fumbled, but Taylor Heinicke threw a fourth-down Hail Mary way out of the back of the end zone. God forbid you throw it into a crowd, and the defense intercepts it.
• If you faded the Bengals in Survivor, you can thank me for making the Jets win possible:

Not everyone can tell the difference between an intentional quantum-reality splitting reverse jinx and a bad hot take, but I knew the risk when making the post.

• Remember Jets fans, even if Mike White turns out to be better than Zach Wilson, stats Twitter can assure you Wilson was still a better pick than, say, Kyle Pitts because Wilson's a quarterback. And no amount of subsequent performance by either player can possibly change that because that would be engaging in results-oriented thinking!
• Seriously, though, White and the Jets showed up to play from the opening kickoff. Even after the early turnovers and missed field goal, they didn't let up for a second. I thought it was a letdown spot for the Bengals because they had just beaten up on the Ravens, but I didn't think the Jets had it in them to sustain competitiveness for 60 minutes.
• If White plays well against Indy next week, the Jets can always trade Wilson to the Panthers (who desperately need a QB) for a 2, 4 and 6.
• Michael Carter (15-77-1, 14-9-95-0) was worth the six or seventh round pick you spent on him, that is, if you didn't drop him in the meantime.
• Ja'Marr Chase (9-3-32-1) was averaging 14.8 yards per target, but now is down to 13.1 (still absurd.)
• The one SuperContest pick we lost was the Colts. Carson Wentz looks healthy, he's moving well, and there's nothing wrong with his arm, but he's playing hero too often and not hitting the easy checkdown. The game-losing overtime pick was a case in point -- he had Jonathan Taylor wide open in the flat, but elected to throw into coverage instead.

• Jonathan Taylor (16-70-1, 4-3-52-0) produces almost every week, but Wentz and the Colts are still underusing him.
• Only injuries could stop AJ Brown (11-10-155-1) from being a top-five wideout, and he's healthy enough for now.
• Derrick Henry (28-68-0) seemed to hurt his ankle early in the game, but played through it. It's only two inefficient games, so it's probably noise, but at some point the workload catches up to everyone. (Note: As it turns out, Henry is now out for the year after breaking his foot.)
• Who knew Miles Sanders' absence would be bad for Kenneth Gainwell? Actually Gainwell saw 13 carries, but had only 27 yards, and didn't get a target.
• The Eagles -3.5 should have been my best bet -- it was obviously too many points on the road against a strong-for-0-7 Lions squad, so in reality it was too few. Luckily, I had the Panthers, so it didn't matter.
• The Steelers are hilarious, getting their kicker destroyed on a fake field goal and having to go for it the rest of the game.
• It's a tough economy, but Najee Harris (26-91-1, 3-3-29-0) isn't hurting for work.
• Justin Fields (10-103-1, 27-19-175-1) finally looked like an NFL quarterback. Allen Robinson (4-3-21-0) wasn't in on it, though.
• Elijah Mitchell (18-137-1) was the correct FAAB all-in six weeks ago, only the payoff was delayed due to a stringer and the team's bye week.
• Deebo Samuel (9-6-171-0) is still the No. 1, but Brandon Aiyuk (7-4-45-0, 2-pt conversion) is relevant again.
• Josh Allen always gets his, even in a low-scoring game where it looked otherwise for three quarters.
• I feel bad dumping on poor Sam Darnold for four years, and then he takes a concussion to pick up a key first down to keep my best bet streak alive. It was awfully strange rooting both for Darnold and the Jets yesterday, and I'll be rooting for the Chiefs tonight. Real man gets his soul dirty, apparently.
• Kyler Murray, despite 8.3 YPA, looked shaky. He was indecisive, didn't do a good job escaping the rush and missed a wide open Christian Kirk on a downfield throw. He also sprained his ankle late in the game.
• The running backs didn't see a lot of touches, but they scored all three touchdowns. This offense spreads the ball around, especially with Hopkins playing hurt most of the year. James Conner (5-22-2) now has eight rushing TDs, second in the league, and two fewer than Derrick Henry.
• A.J. Green is like Larry Fitzgerald at the end of the line – he can still catch the ball, but there's no explosion or upside when he does. The Cardinals really missed Hopkins, who played only a few snaps.
• Ertz made a couple key catches. He still looks like the player he was a couple years ago and is probably usable most weeks.
• Aaron Rodgers averaged 5.0 yards per passing attempt, but seemed in control for most of the game, despite missing Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard.
• AJ Dillon (16-78-0) played like Derrick Henry. He would not go down on first or second contact and bulldozed his way to a key fourth-down conversion.
• Aaron Jones (15-59-1, 11-7-51-0) was less efficient than Dillon, but also brute-forced his way into some first downs and his TD.
• Randall Cobb (5-3-15-2) had 16.5 fantasy points on 15 receiving yards.
• Maybe the Thursday night short rest was to blame, but what a clunker in a game between 7-0 and 6-1 teams.