East Coast Offense: No Superstar QBs

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

No Superstar QBs

The NFL is a QB-driven league. Teams with the top QBs consistently make the playoffs, and teams without them pay dearly for the chance to acquire one through free agency or the draft. But this year has been odd in that the top QBs have not separated from the pack quite as much as in previous years. The difference between Patrick Mahomes, and say, Kirk Cousins has been basically zero. The MVP race, usually a contest between top quarterbacks, has legitimately opened up to Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp, both of whom have lapped the field at their positions by a far greater margin than the quarterbacks.

Let's take a look at some numbers:

2021

2020

2019

2018

I've sorted by Profootball-Reference's adjusted net yards per passing attempt which includes sacks and interceptions, but we can look at other metrics too. This year, the top ANY/A QB is Matthew Stafford at 8.05, and no other quarterback is above 8.0. Contrast that with the previous three years where there were always at least three 8.0+ QBs, and in 2019 five, all with better per-play numbers than Stafford. 

If you don't like ANY/A, use QBR. Tom Brady leads with 67.6 this year, but there were players in the 70s and 80s all three previous seasons.  Kyler Murray had 8.9 YPA (heading into Monday night), but on only 271 attempts, as he's missed three games. Stafford is the only QB with more than 8.0 YPA on MVP-level volume. 

Bottom line, there is no one close to having Rodgers' 2020, Lamar Jackson's 2019 (which included 1200 rushing yards) or Patrick Mahomes' 2018. A quarterback (likely Tom Brady, though Stafford made a push Monday night) will probably win the award, but as I wrote last week, Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor are in the conversation. 

Week 15 Sporcle

Apropos of George Kittle's second monster game in a row, can you name all the tight ends since 1970 with 300 receiving yards over a two-game span?

Real Week 15 Sporcle

Apropos of Cooper Kupp's otherworldly consistency, can you name the receivers who have had at least 13 straight games with 64 or more receiving yards? What about all the wideouts with at least nine games of 92 yards?

Guessing The Lines

At first glance, I'm on the Dolphins, Saints and Bears. I have a big discrepancy in the Cardinals-Lions, but I made that line yesterday before the Cardinals lost to the Rams. I like taking a good team off a loss against a bad team. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind in Beating The Book. 

Week 14 Observations

• Matthew Stafford looked sharp – he moved well in the pocket, bought time, made several accurate deep throws down the field and didn't turn it over. He's a dark horse in the MVP race still.
• Sony Michel (20-79-0, 1-0-0-0) ran hard and well – in fact the player he reminded me of this game was Nick Chubb.
• Another dark horse MVP candidate is Cooper Kupp (15-13-123-1) who already has 113 catches and 1,489 yards with four games to play! Michael Thomas' catch record (149) is at risk, and even Calvin Johnson's yardage record (1,964) is not out of reach.
• Odell Beckham (7-6-77-1) looked good, and it seems like he's now fully integrated into the offense.
• Kyler Murray is the QB1 when he runs. Josh Allen is his only competition.
• James Conner (13-31-2, 9-9-94) is a touchdown machine. He now has 16 total with four games to play. He looked great as a receiver too, though Chase Edmonds could cut into that role next week.
• DeAndre Hopkins (12-5-54-0) hasn't gotten on track this year. In fact his season high in receiving yards is only 87. A.J. Green (10-7-102-0) is still relevant, even with Hopkins healthy.
• Tom Brady's having a good year, but Aaron Rodgers deserves the MVP. Everything is so smooth, and he doesn't make mistakes.
• AJ Dillon (15-71-0) is in a full-fledged timeshare with Aaron Jones (5-35-1, 3-3-30-1), though Jones got both touchdowns.
• Davante Adams (13-10-121-2) could never match last year's insane pace, but he's been worthy of a top-five pick.
• Justin Fields passes the eye test for me. He's at least Jalen Hurts, and there's upside above that, despite the sloppiness.
• Every team needs a Jakeem Grant – it's odd the Dolphins let him go.
• The 4th-and-1 punt down 11 with 11 minutes left in the game by Matt Nagy was abominable. What did you think would happen when Rodgers got the ball?
• The Bills were down 24-3, and I had written them off as no better than the pretenders in the NFC North. But they showed me something with the second-half rally even though they came up short in overtime.
• Josh Allen is the QB1 now, though he has competition in Kyler Murray if Murray keeps using his legs.
• Ja'Marr Chase (8-5-77-2) finally showed a glimpse of the guy from the season's first six weeks.
• Joe Burrow is either throwing deep balls or getting sacked. The Bengals need an alternative besides running it.
• George Kittle (15-13-151-1) had another monster game, and he sealed it in overtime with a highlight-reel catch. He's 27-22-332-3 over the last two weeks. Easy TE1 when healthy.
• Deebo Samuel (8-37-1, 1-1-22-0) was mostly a running back. Bizarre the Niners can't get Samuel and Kittle involved in the same game.
• The Mike Glennon Giants are the 32nd-best offense in the NFL.
• Saquon Barkley (16-64-0, 3-3-31-1) got his points, but it was in garbage time. Between the injuries and the offense around him, it's hard to know if he's still the same player.
• Kyle Rudolph (2-2-66-0) isn't an option for fantasy, but he pulled a Mark Bavaro on a first-quarter catch, carrying several Chargers for 10 yards, so he deserves a mention.
• Melvin Gordon (24-111-2) is still good and will have a role no matter how great Javonte Williams (15-73-1, 2-1-10-1) is. Williams never goes down on first contact.
• Rashaad Penny (16-137-2, 1-1-1-0) has always looked good on the rare occasion he's been healthy. He could be one of those late-season league winners (or he could get hurt in the first quarter of your playoff game when you use him.)
• Tyler Lockett (9-5-142-1) has been so much better than DK Metcalf (8-4-43-0) this year. Metcalf did have a couple opportunities taken away on penalties though.
• I made the Panthers -2.5 my best bet, but Cam Newton was just so sloppy with the ball. I'm not sure whether it was him or the center, but every snap seemed like a fumble risk. After starting off 9-0, I'm now 9-5.
• It's amazing the Cowboys let the Team back into the game. Dallas has more talent than almost anyone in the league, now that their defensive linemen Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence are back, but I don't trust them.
• Cam Sims (4-3-69-1) always makes plays when he gets a shot, but for some reason, the Team buried him this year.
• Terry McLaurin didn't have the courtesy to get concussed after producing some points.
• Taysom Hill is a beast for fantasy. He's almost what Cam Newton was. Alvin Kamara (27-120-1, 5-4-25-0) is back.
• Hunter Renfrow (14-13-117-1) had a nice game, but that team has checked out.
• The Chiefs are doing it on defense, and Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are giving way to short passes and the running game.
• The Jaguars are so inept offensively, it's unwatchable. Is Trevor Lawrence even good? He looks like Mike Glennon.
• I don't know how the Browns blew the cover. Baker Mayfield threw one senseless pick, but you'd think they'd run the ball with a lead and Lamar Jackson hurt.
• Mark Andrews (11-11-115-1) is the TE1 now, ahead of Travis Kelce.
• Ben Roethlisberger is retiring after the season, but he looked pretty good over the last 25 minutes. The team's offensive line finally gave him a little protection, and his receivers made plays.
• Najee Harris (20-94-1, 3-3-10-1) turned what looked like a dud into a monster game. He also took a run that looked like a stuff and turned it into a key first down. I don't know what his ceiling is behind a better offense line, but the floor is high.
• Diontae Johnson (1-7-0, 10-5-76-0, 2pt conversion) always gets his. He had a few end zone targets that were near misses, and caught another two-point conversion attempt, but couldn't get into the end zone.
• Chase Claypool (9-8-93-0) redeemed himself after a penalty and a near-fumble, making tough contested catches. His ceiling would be higher on a team that could protect its quarterback long enough for deep plays to develop, though.
• Kirk Cousins made some nice throws, but you can't throw picks in situations when all you need to do is run clock and punt. That said, Cousins has only five picks all year.
• Dalvin Cook (27-205-2, 3-1-17-0) had the kind of monster game that makes you not check your opponents' lineups for fear you're going against him. He had massive holes through which to run all night and hit them at 100 mph. If the shoulder were bothering him, it was not apparent.
• Justin Jefferson (15-7-79-1) looked like he would have a massive game – most of his production came in the first quarter, but the Steelers shut him down in the second half. K.J. Osborne (9-3-83-1) paid off for you, but it was all on one long TD.
• It looked dire for Greg Joseph when he missed a 53-yard FG and a PAT, but he got you three more FGs and three more PATs after that.