East Coast Offense: Team Of Destiny

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Team Of Destiny

Last week, our $6M Circa Survivor entry sailed through with the Cowboys. It seems obvious in retrospect, but they were only eight-point favorites, the same as the Steelers and 2.5-points less than the Cardinals, our other two choices. With the Ravens and Buccaneers also losing, the pool is down to 172 people, giving us an equity share of $34,884, from a starting point of $1,000. Of course, we're less than halfway through -- to go from 4000 to 172 is only like winning a 23-man pool. We still have to win the 172-person version starting in Week 11!

But for the Team Of Destiny that won on Tom Brady's last minute game-winning drive Week 1, Lamar Jackson's 4th-and-19 conversion and Justin Tucker's 66-yarder off the crossbar in Week 3, the Patriots coming back from a 22-9 deficit in the the second half Week 5, dodging the Bengals landmine in Week 8 while scraping by with the Chiefs, dodging the Cowboys landmine in Week 9 while winning with the four-point-favored Dolphins, and avoiding the two other plausible choices that lost last week with the Cowboys, it's not a big ask. 

I'm not sure yet who we're taking this week -- we will decide tomorrow during the podcast -- after I look at the numbers in the Survivor column. But we'll continue the process that's gotten us to this point. I don't expect it to be as smooth as Week 10 very often, as we've used up most of the league's top teams, and we have to pick games on Thanksgiving and Christmas Day (or the Thursday game Week 16.) 

As for the best-bet streak, it's dead. I foolishly took the Raiders, thinking they'd bounce back, especially after the underperforming Chiefs were gifted a win in the Jordan Love game. But it was precisely the opposite as the Chiefs seemed to adjust to their streak of being solved offensively, and the Raiders were sloppy and unprepared. Reading the ebbs and flows is more art than science, and maybe I forced one. Making a mistake is okay, though as long as I don't commit the cardinal sin: succumbing to the math. The probability calculations will kill you as they set "realistic" expectations and circumscribe the limits of what you can achieve. Never believe the odds unless you're gambling on dice, cards or coins. Lose because you screwed up, never because "this is unsustainable, regression inevitable." In the latter case, you've lost before you ever placed the bet. 

Week 11 Sporcle 

Apropos of Cooper Kupp's historic 10-game run, can you name every receiver to average more than 23 PPR points per game for a full season?

Guessing The Lines

I was way off on Seahawks-Cardinals, and Kyler Murray might not even play, Russell Wilson (at least some version of him) is back, and the game is in Seattle. Just an odd line to me. I'm also surprised the Chargers are such big favorites over the Steelers, as these strike me as roughly equal teams, and there might be more Steelers fans in the stands. Finally, I like the Colts, Browns, Jaguars, Bears and Giants at first glance too. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind in Beating The Book.

Week 10 Observations

• Jimmy Garoppolo played well. He didn't turn it over, took only one sack and made good throws into tight windows. Of course, it helps when you're playing with a lead all game, and your team is able to run the ball 42 times. But Trey Lance isn't taking over in the near term.
• Deebo Samuel (5-36-1, 5-5-97-1) is a monster. He catches everything thrown his way, breaks tackles, has good vision and even lines up in the backfield.
• George Kittle (7-5-50-1) was involved early, but wasn't needed much in the second half. He looks healthy though. Brandon Aiyuk (4-3-26-0) had a quiet day, but be patient, as he's a freak athlete who should get his.
• Elijah Mitchell (27-91-0) ran hard, but often got stuffed near the line of scrimmage. The workload was great, but Jeff Wilson (10-28-0) also got carries, and Mitchell doesn't catch a lot of passes.
• Matthew Stafford had another forgettable game. He's a good quarterback, but the narrative might have been a bit overblown, given his merely good, but not great work in Detroit. His receivers did him no favors though with five drops, his first interception was partly due to miscommunication with newly signed Odell Beckham and his second (a pick-six) was off Tyler Higbee's hands.
• Darrell Henderson (5-31-0, 6-4-10-0) didn't see much work in the blowout loss, in part due to a suspected concussion that cost him some snaps.
• Odell Beckham had a bit role. It doesn't seem like Van Jefferson is really a No. 2, so Beckham should get a bigger shot after the bye.
• Cooper Kupp (13-11-122-0) had a slow start, but always produces, and garbage time was good to him. He on pace for a 186-136-1826-16 season, which equals 412.6 PPR points, or 26.16 per game, tied for third all time with Jerry Rice who scored 22 TDs in 12 games that year. The only players ahead of him are Wes Chandler in the strike-shortened 1982 season, and only by .02 PPG and Elroy Hirsch in 1951, by only 0.3 PPG.
• The Chiefs looked more like the team we've known from the last several seasons. Patrick Mahomes actually missed a few open throws but still went for 406 and five. Travis Kelce (10-8-119-0) and Tyreek Hill (10-7-83-2) did what they usually do. There weren't a ton of downfield completions, but Mahomes had chances, and the team punished the Raiders with underneath plays.
• The Raiders didn't show up. I had had a good feel for the ebbs and flows through nine weeks, but I flat misread this one. Their punt on 4th-and-5 from their own 37, down 20, with 12 minutes left was pathetic too.
• Bryan Edwards (4-3-88-1) had a good game, but after getting zeroes a week ago, I can't imagined he was used much.
• Rusty Wilson simply couldn't get the ball to his wideouts. The Seahawks defense is better than it was earlier in the year, though.
• Aaron Jones looks likely to miss some time, making AJ Dillon (21-66-2, 2-62-2) a top-12 back in the interim. Dillon isn't terrible as a pass catcher, either.
• Jalen Hurts made some nice downfield throws to DeVonta Smith (6-4-66-2), but the Eagles are a running team now.
• Sometimes the Chargers offense looks like the Chiefs of two years ago, and other times Justin Herbert can't find a receiver to save his life, and I don't have an explanation for the stark variance.
• Mike Williams (6-4-33) looked like Michael Thomas with more size and speed for a month and has disappeared since.
• Brandon Staley kicked a cowardly 24-yard field goal from the six yard line with 4:40 left, down 10. While you need a FG and a TD to tie, two TDs wins it. Moreover, scoring the TD allows you to kick a long FG to tie, instead of throwing a Hail Mary if you're running out of time 35 yards out. Of course, it didn't matter anyway because the Chargers defense couldn't get a fourth-down stop.
• Dalvin Cook (24-94-1, 5-3-24-0) was himself despite the allegations hanging over him.
• It was bizarre the Cardinals were double-digit favorites with Colt McCoy, last week's anomalous showing, notwithstanding.
• Christian McCaffrey (13-95-0, 10-10-66-0) left the game briefly, but is more or less back to his dominant backfield share, and keep in mind this was a blowout from the start.
• None of the QBs want to win MVP, apparently, not even Tom Brady.
• Antonio Gibson (24-64-2, 2-2-14) had his best game of the year while facing one of the league's top run defenses. Maybe he's finally healthy.
• I needed the Steelers to go down in Survivor, so I was rooting for the Lions, but Jared Goff is so bad, I tweeted: "Lions, just take the T!" (Lots of people take Ws and are urged to take Ls, but advocacy for the T is rare.)
• DeAndre Swift (33-130-0, 6-3-5-0) saw Najee Harris' (26-105-0, 4-4-28-0) workload and raised.
• Ryan Santoso's 48-yard overtime field goal attempt was so bad, the announcers speculated it had been blocked.
• Mike White, aka "White Lotus", threw four picks and gave way to Joe Flacco late. We might see Zach Wilson again in Week 11. Remember, though, no matter what happens with Zach Wilson going forward, he was a great pick because of "process."
• Stefon Diggs (13-8-162-1) had 13 targets. The next highest receiver had three.
• The Patriots are really looking like the 2001 version now.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (20-100-2, 5-4-14-0) is likely to be a headache for Damien Harris (concussion) owners going forward.
• D'Ernest Johnson (19-99-0, 8-7-58-0) can play, but the rest of the offense was awful. The pass catchers and quarterback are not startable.
• The Jaguars actually had a chance to win this game on the final drive, but Trevor Lawrence looks lost. Their defense looked fairly stout for the second week in a row.
• Jonathan Taylor (12-116-1, 8-6-10) ran roughshod over the Jaguars early but got stuffed for the entire second half.
• I took the Titans minus 3, because it was a good "value", but I knew instinctively it was a mistake and should have changed it.
• The Titans missed Derrick Henry, though the Saints defense is stout against almost everyone.
• Trevor Siemian played well enough, maybe Taysom Hill won't take his job after all.
• As I mentioned, I had the Cowboys in my Survivor pools and didn't have to sweat much, but there's not a whole lot one can take out of a blowout like this.
• Tua Tagovailoa came on in relief of Jacoby Brissett, though I'm not sure it would have mattered in this game. Tua gives the Dolphins more upside though in games where their defense isn't dominating.
• Albert Wilson (2-19-0, 5-4-87-0) has always been a player. He's been injured a lot and never has a huge role, though.
• Jaylen Waddle (6-4-61-0) didn't do much, but after the game, Ravens corner Marlon Humphrey sent this tweet:

• Mike Gesicki (7-0-0-0) will get his, just a bad game for him.
• The Dolphins bottled up Lamar Jackson (5.5 YPA, one TD, one pick, four sacks, 39 rush yards), by disguising their blitzes and getting heat on him all game. They did the same thing to Tyrod Taylor last week too.
• Devonta Freeman (10-35-0, 4-3-23) was the only back with more than three carries.
• Rashod Bateman (8-6-80-0) isn't as fast as Marquise Brown (13-6-37-0) but seems more trustworthy. Mark Andrews (8-6-63-1) was the only Raven worth using this game.
• Devin Duvernay (4-4-28-0) is a player – best punt returner in the league and also a serviceable third wideout. Sammy Watkins graced the game with one catch and a soul-crushing fumble six.
• I watched the 40-minute edited version of the game, and the editor must have been drunk. There were about five plays cut off mid-stream, and important calls (like on the fumble-six) missed too. I've never seen it edited so sloppily, but actually it didn't detract much from the watching experience.
• It was upsetting to see Justin Tucker miss a 48-yard field goal. Not only do I have him in a couple leagues, but his near-infallibility is one of the pillars of my belief system.