Exploiting the Matchups: A Golden Opportunity

One week to go and what feels like 188 injured stars later and we're finally faced with the last week of the 2017 campaign. If you're still alive, you likely were carried by one or more of a half-dozen stud running backs and maybe one of the three truly consistent pass catchers. Perhaps you made all the right start decisions and earned this more than those opponents that simply rode Todd Gurley, a Saints tailback or DeAndre Hopkins to get this far. Either way, if you're playing in the last week of the regular season, you're still a few crucial decisions away from a title.

Maybe more than any week on the fantasy calendar, opportunity is king in Week 17. Teams rest players, injuries open doors to unlikely heroes and motivations run the gamut from "get me the bleep to the offseason" to "let's do this" for teams in do-or-die games for their playoff lives. My recipe for success in the final stanza is this: ride hot hands, take advantage of extreme matchups (a.k.a. feed on injury-depleted defenses) and stick with whatever top players you own that are playing for something of value – a playoff spot/seeding, a contract or a shot at future redemption, for example.

After all, for many teams this week is like the preseason but with fatter game checks. That means it's a time for nobodies to prove themselves in games that don't matter. So, set the lineups, relax, and ring in the New Year with one final, glorious day of fantasy before we can all more calmly enjoy the real-life playoffs.

With that in mind, let's forgo any additional introduction for some playoff predictions, in no particular order:

1. The Ravens ride their defense and Alex Collins to the fifth seed in the AFC, only to get burned repeatedly by Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in a first-round dud.

2. After a Saints win locks Carolina into the No. 5 seed in the NFC, the Panthers have to go cross country to visit a Rams team whose offensive firepower dwarfs theirs. Cam Newton can't save the day against the league's MVP.

3. Julio Jones carries Atlanta to the last spot in the NFC playoffs and put Russell Wilson on the couch in January for the first time in his career.

4. Half an Antonio Brown is still better than 81 percent of the league's receivers, but that's just not enough to overcome a Jaguars defense that ratchets things up another level for a divisional-round playoff rampage that runs through the "Steel City."

5. Like it's a birthright, the Patriots discard Alex Smith's best season and advance to the AFC title game behind big performances from Rob Gronkowski and, more importantly, Dion Lewis.

6. New Orleans hosts the Falcons for the second time in three weeks and overwhelms them with a heaping dose of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, who combine for nearly 250 scrimmage yards in a game that isn't close.

7. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates do their thing against the Raiders, hooking up for two scores to secure the last spot in the AFC playoff race and make Sean McDermott eat a Nathan Peterman five-interception karma sandwich when the Bills miss the playoffs for the 18th straight year, this time because of a tiebreaker.

8. The Eagles predictably miss Carson Wentz too much and are not smart enough to adjust with a ground-heavy approach led by Jay Ajayi.

9. Case Keenum outduels Drew Brees to get revenge for "Bountygate" and bests Jared Goff to get revenge for himself, dispatching his former team to give the Vikings a home-field Super Bowl.

10. The Bolts get to be the last team in and the first team out in the AFC. Traveling 3,000 plus miles to Jacksonville barely looks worth it when Leonard Fournette shakes off a sore ankle to start stiff arming the Jags to the Super Bowl with 100-plus yards and two rushing scores.

11. Blake Bortles outclasses Tom Brady in the mother of all shockers to leave football fans and pundits everywhere dumbfounded.

12. The world braces for a smash-mouth, defense-dominated Super Bowl, only to be treated with a thrilling gem that finds Keenum looking like the second coming of Brees. The Vikes host their first Lombardi.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are players you wouldn't roll out every week while Downgrades are generally lineup mainstays for whom you might want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins, WAS at NYG

This is mostly a reminder not to overthink things. The Giants have allowed a league-high 32 touchdown passes by quarterbacks and are one of three defenses that have let signal callers top 4,000 yards through the air. Cousins has made chicken salad out of chicken excrement for most of the year (he has 10 games producing multiple scores), and with no ground game to lean on, he'll continue doing more of the same in his final chance to make a "pay me" statement to the Redskins and the rest of the league.

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at LAR

The Rams are not a pushover defense. But then again, they're also nowhere near the level of a Jacksonville unit that Garoppolo just tore up for 242 yards and three total touchdowns while completing 70.0 percent of his throws and taking just one sack. Already grasping a complex Kyle Shanahan offense, Garoppolo has produced an eye-popping 8.7 yards per attempt while averaging 312.5 passing yards in four starts. Locked in as either the No. 3 or 4 seed, the Rams have already announced they'll be resting Aaron Donald, and it's possible many of their other defensive starters are also held out or pulled early.

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. GB

The Green Bay Packers did not stop Case Keenum last week. The cold did. That and the blowout nature of the game. A depleted and outclassed Green Bay defense allowed 13 passing touchdowns and 269.2 passing yards per game in its previous four contests, including a three-score outing by DeShone Kizer. Fortunately for Stafford, he won't suffer the same fate Keenum did while playing in the cushy, temperature-controlled confines of Ford Field. And given the similarly poor state of the Lions defense – one that allowed the Bengals to roll up 26 points last week – the game flow should stay fantasy-friendly.

Blake Bortles, JAC at TEN

With the Titans secondary missing two of its top three corners against the Rams, the league's 25th-ranked pass defense followed up a 381-yard pasting at the hands of Jimmy Garoppolo by allowing Jared Goff to come into their stadium and sling it for 301 and four scores. Meanwhile, Bortles has thrown for 1,285 yards in the last four weeks, with three games of more than 300 yards and multiple scores, all while posting a robust 9.1 yards per attempt. While Tennessee fights for its playoff life, Bortles will be doing his best to extinguish it with players like Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook testing the secondary all day.

Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. HOU

Brissett's best game of the season came early November against a Houston team that has now has allowed 32 total touchdowns to opposing QBs, good for the second most in the league. The Texans also are tied with Indy as the most generous pass defense on a per-play basis, with both surrendering 8.2 yards per attempt. Brissett is one of the key contributors to that ignominious stat, as he burned Houston for 10.3 YPA in the first meeting while registering his only game of the season with over 300 passing yards and multiple TDs. With T.Y. Hilton – who did most of the damage in that contest – coming off his strongest showing since then with 100 yards against a good Baltimore secondary, Brissett is poised to likewise have his best performance in nearly two months.

Running Back

Jamaal Williams, GB at DET

A second Aaron Jones MCL injury has Williams perfectly set up for a big close to a season in which Packers tailbacks were one of the few silver linings in an otherwise crushing campaign. The Lions have gone 13 straight games allowing a touchdown to a running back – including Williams himself – and are fresh off a toasting by Giovani Bernard, who racked up 168 scrimmage yards and a score last week. Williams, in more comfortable conditions than last week's freezing weather that stalled both offenses, should thrive against a thin Detroit front seven that even let Doug Martin score earlier this month.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. JAC

One of Henry's three biggest rushing performances of the season came in a Week 2 stampeding of Jacksonville (14/92/1 stat line), and with DeMarco Murray suffering from an MCL injury, the second-year back is set up for a chance to repeat that effort. Of course, the addition of Marcell Dareus has greatly improved the Jaguars' ability to stuff the run, but with the playoffs clinched and a week removed from Carlos Hyde, Matt Breida and the Niners finding plenty of success on the ground, perhaps the Jags are softening a bit to preserve their bodies for meaningful action. Either way, Henry is a battering ram with a career mark of 4.6 yards per carry and appears destined to see 15-20 opportunities in a must-win for Tennessee. He demands to be in the RB2 conversation this week.

Wayne Gallman, NYG vs. WAS

Leapfrogging a worn-down Orleans Darkwa in the pecking order the last few weeks, Gallman has racked up 49 touches in three games while being particularly active as a receiver (at least six catches and 40 receiving yards in all three). Offering duality as a runner and receiver, he's averaged 76.7 yards per game over the last three and gets to square off with a depleted Redskins defense missing top tackler Zach Brown (knee/Achilles). With Brown sidelined the past two weeks, opposing tailbacks piled up 357 scrimmage yards against Washington.

Malcolm Brown, LAR vs. SF

With Todd Gurley ruled out, Brown is in line to make his first career start, facing a 49ers defense that's allowed 153 scrimmage yards per game to opposing tailbacks. Brown has received double-digit carries in three blowout wins over the last two months and averaged 4.2 per carry on those opportunities. With a 227-pound frame that can move in the 4.5 range in the 40-yard-dash, Brown possesses the physical traits that once upon a time had him ranked as the top high school running back in the country. His upside may be unknown, especially with the Rams also resting Jared Goff and some key offensive linemen, but with a prime audition opportunity he should have a safe floor based on sheer volume alone.

Wide Receiver

Golden Tate, DET vs. GB

In his three previous seasons in Detroit, Tate has reached the 90-catch mark every time. With just three grabs in consecutive games, however, his streak is in jeopardy as he enters the final week with 85 receptions. Seeing as the Packers are missing Kevin King (shoulder/IR) and Quinten Rollins (Achilles/IR) and played a game each within the last two weeks without the services of Davon House (shoulder) and Damarious Randall (knee), it feels like a safe bet that Tate – who racked up seven catches and a season-high 113 yards in the first meeting with Green Bay – will get the five catches he needs, perhaps also posting his third 1,000-yard effort in four years as a Lion (he's sitting 101 yards shy).

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. HOU

The last time Hilton faced the Texans' hapless pass defense, he took a blow torch to them for 175 yards and two touchdowns. Since that black mark on the Houston secondary's resume, they have not fared much better. In the last two games alone, four different receivers have scored against them and four have posted at least 60 yards. Coming off his fourth 100-yard effort of the season, the boom-or-bust Hilton is finally poised for consecutive games with double-digit points.

Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, WAS at NYG

The last two slot receivers the Giants faced, Nelson Agholor and Larry Fitzgerald, both had at least seven catches and a touchdown. And those two were catching passes from the likes of Nick Foles and Drew Stanton, respectively. Before that, Cole Beasley and Rod Smith of the Cowboys ripped off huge gains of 54 and 81 yards, respectively. Crowder, who has scored in consecutive games, has a benefit those others did not in the form of Kirk Cousins. Facing a Giants defense that he scorched for a career-high 141 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between these teams, Crowder should close an otherwise disappointing season on a high note. Doctson, meanwhile, is coming off a career-high 13 targets versus Denver and has now scored or reached 80 yards in four of his last six games. With six red-zone targets in the last two weeks, he's a solid dart throw for anyone scrambling at receiver.

Michael Clark, GB at DET

You can't teach 6-foot-6 size and you darn sure can't stop it if it's deployed properly. Clark, an undrafted rookie who made his debut last week, hasn't played enough to truly show that, but he should get every opportunity this week. Davante Adams (head) and Jordy Nelson (shoulder) will almost certainly be out, and even Geronimo Allison could be sidelined by an illness. Clark, who saw nine (mostly inaccurate) targets last week in the freezing cold of Lambeau field, should fare better in the perfect conditions of Detroit's dome turf. Against a Lions defense that's allowed the seventh most yards to wideouts, DFS players and desperate weekly title contenders could find a steal here.

Tight End

Antonio Gates, LAC vs. OAK

In the six quarters and change since Hunter Henry suffered a lacerated kidney, Gates has produced two touchdowns. Without Henry altogether last week for the first time all season, the future Hall of Famer even led the Chargers in receiving with 81 yards on eight targets. Given his chemistry with Philip Rivers as well as the favorable matchup against a defense that's allowed a league-high 66.1 yards per game to tight ends, the 15-year vet is in a good spot to remain productive in a must-win game for the Chargers.

Demetrius Harris, KC at DEN

Talk about having to trust your gut. Harris has only one score this season – the first Chiefs touchdown of the year in Week 1 – and has more games in which he didn't catch a pass than he did. But he draws a Broncos defense that has allowed the second most yards to tight ends, and he should see a heavy workload for the second straight week. Why he saw seven targets last week when Kansas City was not resting anyone is a bit of a mystery, but with Patrick Mahomes replacing Alex Smith this week and the likelihood that Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill see limited action, the door is wide open for a backup like Harris to step into a featured role. Mahomes' live arm and fearlessness could lead to some big plays and perhaps a bookend score for Harris to close the regular season.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Jameis Winston, TB vs. NO

The last quarterback to throw for over 300 yards against the Saints when they faced a full 60 minutes of Marshon Lattimore was Matthew Stafford way back in Week 6, and he did so because New Orleans held a 35-point lead less than midway through the third quarter. Stafford required over 50 pass attempts, of which he completed less than half while also throwing three interceptions. Winston, currently on a run in which he's completed 72 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards and eight touchdowns in four games, is about to get a reminder how tough it is to produce on this Saints defense. When he played them the first time around, Winston got off to a very slow start before a shoulder injury knocked him out at halftime with just 67 yards. Without O.J. Howard (ankle) and DeSean Jackson (ankle) this time around, the Bucs' aerial attack will be suddenly grounded.

Drew Brees, NO at TB

After sucking it up for 11 games, the Buccaneers' pass defense has done a somewhat remarkable 180 in December. Despite losing all four games they've played this month in finishes that came down to the wire, Tampa's 32nd-ranked pass defense has held those four opponents to a combined 837 yards and two touchdowns through the air. Although Brees presents a bigger test than the likes of Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and Brett Hundley, it bears reminding that the Saints' passing numbers have been deflated all year, so Brees could certainly produce just a ho-hum stat line against a defense that's quietly changing its tune. After all, in the seven games since he last played the Bucs (and carved them up for 263 yards and two scores at 9.7 YPA), Brees has manufactured just one 300-yard game and produced multiple touchdowns in less than half his appearances.

Cam Newton, CAR at ATL

Newton's legs are his only hope for a good fantasy day. His No. 1 wide receiver is struggling with a shoulder injury inhibiting his play, and the cupboard is mostly bare beyond Devin Funchess. In a must-win for Atlanta, the Falcons defense will almost certainly spy Newton and make him beat them with his arm – something he's rarely been able to do to opponents this season. In the last 10 games, Newton has thrown one or zero touchdown passes an alarming seven times. If Atlanta can contain his rushing ability, it will be a long day for the Panthers offense.

Running Back

Jordan Howard, CHI at MIN

In four of the last five games Howard has generated just 125 rushing yards on 52 carries (2.4 YPC). In the contest sandwiched smack in the middle of this terrible run of inefficiency he blasted the woeful Bengals for 147 and two scores. And he did find the end zone twice last week despite going for 44 yards on 22 carries against the Browns. So, there's definite risk to sitting him. However, Sunday's matchup against a Vikings defense that's yet to clinch the NO. 2 seed in the NFC warrants doing just that. Minnesota has allowed the third fewest rushing yards to opposing tailbacks and the fewest touchdowns to the position (tied with Carolina for eight allowed).

Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. CAR

Freeman has fumbled four times in the last three games, including twice at the goal line. He was also stuffed last week on a 4th-and-goal. Despite all those miscues he remains the lead back for the Falcons and one of the premier running back talents in the league. This week, however, the sum of those errors may encourage Atlanta to turn to Tevin Coleman more often with their playoff hopes on the line – at least in the red zone. Given that possibility and the strength of the Carolina run defense, which has held lead backs to a combined 95 yards on 32 carries the past three weeks, Freeman may not be the best bet for any championships on the line.

Jonathan Stewart, CAR at ATL

Stewart's hot streak appears to officially be over. After tallying five touchdowns and 284 yards on the ground in four games, he's managed just 46 on 18 carries over the last two weeks. That now gives him four games in the last seven in which he failed to rush for over 30 yards, including an 11-carry, 21-yard effort (1.9 YPC) in the first meeting with Atlanta. With so much speed on defense, the Falcons can corral and gang-tackle the lumbering Stewart before he gets his momentum rolling downhill. That team speed is a big part of the reason the Falcons are tied for the third fewest rushing scores allowed to tailbacks (six).

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill, KC at DEN

Hill has managed fewer than for catches just twice all year, and one of those came in the first meeting with Denver. This time the Chiefs will travel to the Mile-High City with their rookie quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, making his regular-season debut. With the decision to start Mahomes, it's clear Andy Reid is not concerned about winning this contest, making it unlikely Hill plays the entire game. So, deciding to stick with Hill is essentially betting that Mahomes connects with him on a first-half bomb against a tough group of cornerbacks. Otherwise, there's little chance Hill produces in a manner consistent with his first 1,000-yard season.

Robby Anderson, NYJ at NE

Anderson has not tallied better than 51 yards in three games without Josh McCown (hand) playing the full contest. And now Anderson is missing practice due to illness and has to face a New England defense that's allowed only two 100-yard receivers since Oct. 1. As if that weren't enough, he also has to deal with the threat of a Christian Hackenberg sighting in the second half. In other words, Anderson's season ended four weeks ago as far as fantasy owners are concerned.

Devin Funchess, CAR at ATL

After posting a combined 30 yards versus two of the friendliest defenses in the league to opposing wide receivers, it seems safe to say that Funchess' shoulder injury is significantly impacting his performance. With a shoulder impairment, getting off jams, running fluid routes and, of course, securing the catch become much bigger chores. Given those limitations and the tight coverage Funchess will face from the crafty Desmond Trufant, this matchup is quickly shaping up as one that will feature Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey in the passing game instead of Carolina's top wideout.

Tight End

Jesse James, PIT vs. CLE

The Browns are one of only two defenses to have allowed double-digit touchdowns to tight ends, and James himself owns two of those from a Week 1 meeting in Cleveland. Despite all that, he can't be trusted this week. Vance McDonald was brand new to the Steelers way back in that first game, but as we saw in their last outing, there's no telling which tight end will be featured for Pittsburgh. A week after getting entrusted to make a game-winning play versus New England (which many would argue James did make), he saw just one target in an equally ripe matchup with Houston.