Exploiting the Matchups: Cam and Co. Get Sainted

Perhaps I spoke too soon.

After a Week 1 that saw the total points scored in the league drop from an average of 22.7 per team for the last four Week 1's (2013-2016) to 20.2 points per team (a full 2.5 point drop!), I immediately chalked the lack of fantasy action up to an anomaly and told everyone not to worry. Then somehow Week 2 found teams actually go backwards to a 20.1-point average.

The repeat of offensive ineptitude got me thinking about the root of the issue and here's what I've decided: its circumstantial randomness. If we really want to point fingers, we can blame injuries to offensive glue guys like Andrew Luck (shoulder), David Johnson (wrist), Julian Edelman (knee), Cameron Meredith (knee), Allen Robinson (knee) and Sam Bradford (knee). But injuries happen every year, even early on, which is why I'm still calling randomness and reminding everyone to stay the course. Sure, certain critical injuries have had a snowball effect on some teams and changed their offenses for the worse – heck, just ask anyone still holding out hope for T.Y. Hilton to return to stardom. But no matter how much a key player getting hurt can have a ripple effect for one team, the NFL mantra "next man up" remains perhaps its greatest truism. And once those next guys up really get their feet wet, scoring will return to normal levels and balance out. Just ask those who rostered Jay Ajayi last year when Arian Foster predictably went down, or those who invested in the next all-purpose stud with Foster-like traits, Kareem Hunt, when Spencer Ware tore up his knee in August. Though points were tough to find through two weeks, that won't remain the case with guys like Hunt and others yet to be determined re-writing our perceptions.

I've written it before in this column in the early stages of a football season and it remains just as true today: trust in talent. Many of your top picks that have not yet produced as expected eventually will break out of the funk. Of course, some won't, but trusting the eye test early in the year can go a long way towards securing useful replacements and not making hasty moves to trade low. Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey and Terrelle Pryor are names that come to mind of talents that crush the eye test and are simply too gifted to not pay out big fantasy days sooner rather than later. Be patient with your talent and the league in general, even if fewer points require extra beers to keep the next Sunday or two as exciting as it should be.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are players you wouldn't roll out every week while Downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you might want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Cam Newton, CAR vs. NO

Newton has been a shell of his 2015 MVP form so far. His arm strength is simply not 100 percent back after offseason shoulder surgery, and he's missing even more throws than usual. But that all stops for one week. The Saints defense is a disgrace. Granted, they've thus far played two eminently accurate quarterbacks with a glut of weapons at their disposal, but anytime you're giving up an average of 396.5 yards and three touchdowns per game through the air, something is fundamentally broken. Fantasy owners will love this matchup all year and despite Newton's struggles this week is no different. Even without Greg Olsen (foot), "Super Cam" will come out of the phone booth to save the fantasy weekend.

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYG

The Giants can at times have a stifling defense, so ostensibly this should not be a good matchup for Wentz. And yet, because New York is such a good defense, it is. The name of the game here is volume. The Giants defense will have little trouble shutting down a Philly ground game that is practically non-existent, just like the Redskins and Chiefs had little trouble doing. When that happens, Wentz, who has over 300 yards and multiple scores in both games this year, will be airing it out a ton (he's not tied for third in pass attempts for nothing, after all).

DeShone Kizer, CLE at IND

The Colts defense has been bad for years. Without their best player, shutdown corner Vontae Davis, who is week-to-week with a groin injury, they're downright dreadful. They allowed the noodle arms of both Jared Goff and Carson Palmer to throw for over 300 yards and a score against them while netting a combined 9.8 YPA, and now they may allow Kizer to produce his first 300-yard game. The rookie was awful last week, but the circumstances were about as bad as they get. He was facing a frenetic, confusing Ravens defense, battling a migraine, and top wideouts Corey Coleman and Kenny Britt combined for just 11 receiving yards. Even without Coleman, who just landed on IR with a broken hand, Kizer is a promising option in two-QB and superflex leagues against the Ponies (that's right, they're too soft for a name like the Colts).

Jay Cutler, MIA at NYJ

Cutler was crisp in his Dolphins debut despite visiting a Chargers defense with one of the best pass-rushing duos in the league in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Loaded with a diverse group of receiving weapons and a battering ram of a running back to set up play-action, Cutler only figures to improve on that start against a Jets defense with a thin secondary and a front seven that has an aversion to tackling. Translation: the broadcaster-in-waiting makes for a sneaky DFS option and is a high-upside plug-and-play for two-QB and superflex formats.

Running Back

Ameer Abdullah, DET vs. ATL

Facing a beastly Giants defensive line, Abdullah ran with pop and determination while gaining 86 yards on 17 carries. With the beefy Dontari Poe and Grady Jarrett in the middle, Atlanta's defensive front is no slouch either, and their linebackers certainly have the speed to close on ball carries, but this matchup still drips with promise for Detroit's clear feature back. Only the Patriots have allowed more fantasy points to opposing tailbacks, and three different runners have already posted double-digit fantasy days against the Falcons. Given that Atlanta has allowed a league-high 19 receptions to tailbacks, Theo Riddick also has flex appeal in this contest (especially in PPR leagues), but for Abdullah, who has at least 17 touches in both games thus far and has out-touched Riddick 35 to 19, there's RB1 upside this week.

Jonathan Stewart, Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. NO

Though the Panthers' passing attack gets a big boost this week from a hapless Saints secondary, with Olsen out it will be both logical and easy for Carolina to also lean a bit more heavily on its ground game. The Saints have allowed the second-most yards to opposing running backs (and the most receiving yards to the position) and are about to get a heavy dose of Carolina's thunder and lightning duo so that the Panthers can keep Newton's jersey clean and Drew Brees on the sidelines.

Chris Thompson, WAS vs. OAK

Arguably the Redskins' most dynamic offensive weapon, Thompson has turned just 13 touches into three touchdowns. Now the explosive multi-purpose back could match or best that number of opportunities in one game, with Robert Kelley suffering from a rib injury and rookie Samaje Perine yet to showcase the efficiency or receiving ability it takes to consistently move the chains. With an Oakland offense on tap that can rack up points in a hurry, Thompson's number could be called often in a no-huddle, comeback effort. Given that Matt Forte and rookie Elijah McGuire combined for 127 yards on 20 touches in last week's loss to the Raiders, Thompson, who is averaging 12.5 yards per touch, looks like a safe source of yardage.

Chris Johnson, ARI vs. DAL

So much for Kerwynn Williams having any value in the absence of David Johnson. The elder Johnson is not exactly the spry burner he once was, but he's still a crafty runner with some juice left in the tank, as evidenced by his 11-44-0 rushing line compared to Williams' 9-22-0 against the Colts. The Cardinals will need to control the ball to have any chance against the Cowboys this week, and pounding a fresh Johnson at a Dallas front seven allergic to tackling is the best way to accomplish that. It sure worked for the Broncos, and if C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles can gash Dallas for 164 yards on 34 carries (4.8 YPC), then Johnson should be able to squeeze out close to triple digits on the ground.

Wide Receiver

Terrelle Pryor, WAS vs. OAK

The Raiders' back seven has already allowed four different players to tally at least 64 yards, and last week they let Jermaine Kearse look more like his opponent, Michael Crabtree, than a career No. 3 receiver. Pryor may have only seen four targets last week, but that partially was the result of a ground-heavy approach against a mediocre team. Kirk Cousins threw just 27 passes and opted for underneath matchups instead of challenging the Rams' corners. Oakland's high-powered offense won't let him get away with so few attempts this week, and as documented, their corners are not about to scare away a quarterback.

Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, CAR vs. NO

As streaming options go, Funchess may be among the best receivers this week. Neither of these wideouts was needed to easily get past San Francisco in Week 1, but when called upon last week to be the top two targets for Newton, they combined for 145 yards with Benjamin's 77 leading the way. With a Brees-led offense able to keep things competitive, and no Olsen to gobble up targets, these twin towers may be needed even more to move the chains and convert red-zone opportunities in the best matchup they'll see all season.

Jermaine Kearse, NYJ vs. MIA

Kearse is that trusty, veteran target that Josh McCown feels most confident in moving the chains and even taking shots to because of his strong hands and ability to win contested catches in traffic – evidenced by his team-leading 15 targets, six first downs and two touchdowns. By no means is he on this level in terms of route running and chemistry with his quarterback, but Kearse is quickly becoming Gang Green's poor man's version of Keenan Allen. In case you missed it, Allen pulled in nine of 10 targets for 100 yards versus the Dolphins just last week, exploiting their lack of talent and depth in the back seven.

J.J. Nelson, ARI vs. DAL

Three words for you: Let. It. Ride. With or without John Brown in the lineup, the effortlessly fast Nelson is clearly a favorite target of Carson Palmer. Nelson has caught five passes in each of the first two games and scored in both while showing a versatility that debunks the common misconception he's little more than a deep threat. In Week 1, his longest catch went for 14 yards and his score came from the 1-yard line. His encore was quite the opposite as he averaged 24.0 yards per catch and hauled in a 45-yard bomb for his second touchdown of the year. Now Nelson gets to pit his speed and acceleration against a depleted group of Dallas corners that saw a similarly-skilled Emmanuel Sanders turn six grabs into two TDs last week.

Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, MIN vs. TB

Of course anyone's perception of Minnesota's top receiving duo is going to change if Sam Bradford is able to suit up, but even with Case Keenum under center these two should not be forgotten. Diggs is easily a top-20 talent at the position and Thielen remains among the most underrated receivers in the league. The Buccaneers are a bend but don't break defense that thrives on flying to the ball and wrapping up, not necessarily preventing the catch. Case in point: catching passes from Mike Glennon, the trio of Kendall Wright, Deonte Thompson and Josh Bellamy combined to snag 15 ball for 177 yards and a score against Tampa. Split those numbers between Diggs and Thielen and you could have two quality flexes.

Tight End

Jack Doyle, IND vs. CLE

Through two games the Browns have allowed a whopping 19 catches to tight ends, which have translated to 162 yards and two touchdowns – and that's against the likes of Jesse James and Benjamin Watson. Doyle flashed instant chemistry with Jacoby Brissett last week (eight catches on as many targets for 79 yards), and as the inexperienced passer's security blanket, Doyle is poised to build on that performance versus a group that's yet to figure out what a tight end does or how to stop one.

Jason Witten, DAL at AZ

The math on this one is pretty simple. Follow the targets. Through two games Witten is tied with Antonio Brown for third in the league at 22. Mr. Reliable may move glacially, but he still owns the middle of the field, and against a Cardinals defense that starts a rookie and the 35-year-old Karlos Dansby at inside linebacker, Witten should continue the hottest start he's had since 2011 when he posted back-to-back 100-yard games to begin the year.

Benjamin Watson, BAL vs. JAC (in London)

It looks like Joe Flacco may have found his new Dennis Pitta. He could never stay healthy, but whenever Pitta made it on to the field he was instantly Flacco's best friend and security blanket. In 39 games dating back to 2012, Pitta averaged 6.8 targets per game, hauling in an average of 4.7. Watson, despite being roughly 175 in tight end years, is a marvel of an athlete. Sculpted like Terry Crews, the veteran could feast on a Jaguars defense that just allowed 92 yards and two scores to Titans tight ends. Watson had eight grabs for 91 yards as Flacco's go-to last week.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. SEA

Before Aaron Rodgers lost his left tackle for all of Week 2 and Jordy Nelson for most of it, the Seahawks' ferocious defense still limited the most complete quarterback in football to one touchdown while also picking him off once. Mariota, who is breaking in a handful of new receiving weapons, has one passing score in two games and even on that toss – a tight end screen – the receiver made a big play to find pay dirt. Drafted as a top-10 quarterback in many leagues, Mariota has yet to play like one, and he's certainly facing an uphill climb to produce like one this week.

Jameis Winston, TB at MIN

Winston has the physical tools and the surrounding talent to produce high-end fantasy numbers most weeks, but this does not look like one of those weeks. The Vikings defense is loaded, and if Bradford is able to bounce back and play without many limitations, the offense will even be able to help their defense out by possessing the ball more and avoiding turnovers. Either way, don't expect Winston, who only completed 60 percet of his passes for 6.8 YPA against the Bears at home, to fair much better than Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger, who combined for just three scores and were both held below 300 yards by Mike Zimmer's well-coached, well-stocked defense.

Drew Brees, NO at CAR

A New Orleans rushing attack that has generated just 141 yards in two games has provided no support to Brees, and that doesn't figure to change against a stacked Carolina front seven that just completely shut down LeSean McCoy (12 carries for nine yards). With all the focus on limiting Brees and with the Saints still missing Willie Snead (suspension) for one more week, this performance figures to closely resemble the superstar's disappointing road trip to Minnesota in Week 1.

Running Back

LeSean McCoy, BUF vs. DEN
Somehow the Bills' offense is even more of a train wreck than the Jets' O right now. Tyrod Taylor has yet to jell with his new receivers, left tackle Cordy Glenn has an ankle injury, and even McCoy, their one dependable weapon, is banged up and coming off a dreadful performance – 12 carries, nine yards. Facing a loaded Denver defense that just turned Ezekiel Elliott into a ghost, this Buffalo offense could end up waiving the white flag.

C.J. Anderson, DEN at BUF

Anderson is coming off a monster performance and he's not someone you're going to bench regardless of the matchup right now, but he is someone that you should lower expectations for and whom you may want to think twice about for daily play. The Bills' front seven is certainly not as soft as the Cowboys group he just trampled, and Denver just lost left tackle Garett Bolles to a high-ankle sprain. Anderson should receive enough touches to overcome a defense that's held opposing backs to 2.4 yards per carry, but his performance figures to better resemble Week 1 when he produced solid yardage without any of last week's splash.

Lamar Miller, HOU at NE

Miller could have a major case of the Donta's this week. New England's top linebacker Dont'a Hightower is practicing in a limited fashion, and if he returns from his knee injury he's an instant and substantial upgrade to New England's ability to defend the run. Meanwhile, Houston rookie big back D'Onta Foreman flashed some nifty footwork and quickness for a player of his size while stealing 12 carries from Miller last week. With another rookie under center in Deshaun Watson and an ultra-thin receiving corps rivaled by only the Jets' in its lack of talent, Miller will be hard-pressed to produce like a top-20 tailback when Bill Belichick is intent on stacking up against the run and forcing an inaccurate and inexperienced passer to challenge his talented secondary.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper, OAK at WAS

A lopsided win over the Jets didn't require Derek Carr to throw more than 28 times, but Cooper, despite the soft matchup with a bad New York secondary, managed only 33 yards on five targets while Michael Crabtree cashed in three touchdowns. The same old story from the last two years reared its ugly head for Cooper owners when Carr showed more trust in Crabtree's ability to win contested throws with the end zone in sight. Betting on that being any different when Josh Norman will be sticking Cooper seems overly optimistic at best.

Odell Beckham, NYG at PHI

Unless Beckham houses a short slant, he's probably not going to produce a quality start for his owners this week. Playing on a sore ankle it's going to be more difficult for him to get quick separation and maintain it for any routes beyond 10 yards. The real issue, however, is the same one that kept Eli Manning from consistently moving the ball against an average Lions defense. Bottom line is this: the Giants offensive line against the Eagles devastating front four will not leave Manning with the time to hit his star wideout for any chunk yardage.

Mike Evans, TB at MIN

Just like Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas the last two weeks, you're probably not benching Evans. But don't be surprised when this is the week Winston tries to break in all his new toys and spread the ball elsewhere. Xavier Rhodes is the most underrated lockdown corner in football, and that point was made especially clear when he limited the pair of Brown and Thomas to a combined 10 catches for 110 yards at a paltry 5.8 YPT. And those guys are catching passes from future Hall of Famers.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. TB

The Buccaneers could be without standout linebacker Kwon Alexander (hamstring) in this one, but rookie Kendell Beckwith is almost equally rangy and instinctive, and Rudolph could be without Bradford again. In a week where so many top tight ends are out or banged up, any quality starter is an option. Rudolph certainly qualifies as that, but the strength of the Tampa Bay defense is its loaded linebacker corps led by Alexander and Lavonte David. They just held Bears tight ends to 4.2 YPT on 10 looks, so while Rudolph will be among the most talented healthy options this week, there are others with more upside.