Exploiting the Matchups: Week 1 Start/Sit

At long freaking last, it's here. For me, the top events on the football calendar are as follows:

1. The NFL Draft
2. The Max Power Fantasy Football Draft (favorite home league, Simpsons themed, 11th Year)
3. Week 1 of the regular season, when we finally get real football after twiddling thumbs for seven months
4. Week 17 of the regular season, when I can finally have a life again and sleep after the ceaseless, unrelenting (but rewarding) five-month grind of writing, watching and writing
5. The Super Bowl

So, with No. 3 on the list about to be checked off, it's time to kick off year number five of writing Exploiting the Matchups in my eighth year with RotoWire. And after penning this generally boring Week 1 preamble a few times now, a stark realization has hit me.

Week 1 is the crapshoot of all crapshoots.

Seriously. Just like any other year, there's veterans coming back from injury with uncertainty, rookies and other young up-and-comers with little-to-no sample size, and a slew of coaching and defensive personnel changes to shuffle the deck and create total blackjack-esque unpredictability.
So, where I would normally tell you some type of strategy tip for your lineup, I'm going to instead simply suggest that you play the guys you want to root for in the matchups that seem advantageous. If calls are close, go with your gut. You can't win or lose your season in the first week, so the real strategy play is to drink beer, eat tailgate food and watch as much of the carnage as you can. It should be glorious.

Instead of elaborating further on Week 1 strategy, let's take a peek at the players on whom I'm counting to win me some leagues this year:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes
RB: Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Royce Freeman, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, Sony Michel, Jordan Wilkins
WR: Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Corey Davis, Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins, Anthony Miller, Will Fuller, Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin
TE: Jimmy Graham, Trey Burton, Jack Doyle, O.J. Howard

And guys I'm disappointed I did not get anywhere include, in no particular order:

Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake, Tarik Cohen, Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Robby Anderson, John Ross, Evan Engram

In other news, if you're reading this and haven't followed me on Twitter yet, that sucks.
Please do. I'm finally trying to up my Twitter game before I blink and hit my 10-year anniversary with RotoWire. I've set a goal of 5,000 followers by Nov. 4 on my football events list. Give me a follow @Hoover_L_A and maybe you'll learn about my adventures starting up several Vampire leagues, of which I'll do my best to blog about weekly in the RotoWire blog section.

OK, so let's get on with the reason you're here. If you're not familiar with it, here's the essential premise of Exploiting the Matchups: The "upgrades" are players who are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set up to raise their production, and the "downgrades" are players you're usually not benching but for whom you may want to consider replacements.

This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide some perspective you may not have considered to help make those tough decisions less tough and more effectively remove your brain from those "no-brainer" choices.

Whether it's defensive challenges, shootout probabilities, key injuries, location, weather, etc. – basically anything that might impact a guy's value – I'll focus each week on a handful of players at each skill position to show who is at an advantage or disadvantage based on the matchups, accounting for all factors.

Now that you get the idea, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Philip Rivers, LAC vs. KC

It's a done deal. Rivers is going to go off in Week 1 now that he has his trusted sidekick Antonio Gates back in the fold. Okay, so maybe a 38-year-old tight end whose opening-week involvement is unclear may not be not the clincher, but still, it's hard not to have confidence in Rivers this week. The Chiefs defense is awfully thin in the secondary with Eric Berry coming back from a torn Achilles and Kendall Fuller – primarily a slot corner in Washington – now their No. 1 cover corner with Marcus Peters joining the Rams. With tailbacks who can catch, a fully healthy Mike Williams snagging jump balls like alley-oops and an elite do-everything wideout in Keenan Allen, Rivers should start the year red-hot.

Andy Dalton, CIN at IND

The Colts gave up 8.0 YPA in 2017 (good for a share of the highest average) and notched the second-fewest sacks in the league with 25. So naturally, they thought it best to ditch their top two corners (Vontae Davis and Rashaan Melvin) and 40 percent of their sack production. Dalton struggled out of the gate last year but closed with 14 touchdown tosses in the final eight games. The healthy returns of John Ross and Tyler Eifert, plus a more confident Tyler Boyd, will allow Dalton to just let it rip behind an improved line against a defense that is going to get sliced and diced all season.

Patrick Mahomes, KC at LAC

See Rivers, Philip. While the Chiefs are struggling to slow the Chargers on the other side of the ball, Mahomes will be forced to wing it plenty in a potential shootout. Sure, the Chargers boast a far better secondary with Pro Football Focus darlings Casey Heyward and Desmond King rocking the number one and 10 PFF grades in 2017 for coverage, but that didn't prevent Tyreek Hill from twice burning them for TDs of at least 30 yards last year. With a stud runner like Kareem Hunt to soften the back seven and set up play action and a legit Robin to Hill's Batman in Sammy Watkins, Mahomes' cannon should go off a few times in an explosive contest.

RB

Derrick Henry, TEN at MIA

The Titans' freight train of a running back will be more than happy to open his season against a defense that lost Ndamukong Suh and will now start essentially two rookies at linebacker – 2017 second-round pick Raekwon McMillan, who missed his rookie year with a torn ACL, and this year's third-round pick, Jerome Baker, a featherweight of a backer at 215 pounds. So, timeshare or not, Henry is poised for a big day against a Dolphins defense that rosters just one player over 315 pounds. When they're already tired from Tennessee's more up-tempo attack, the 247-pound Henry will simply be too much of a load for them to handle.

Carlos Hyde, CLE vs. PIT

Sure, the emotional loss of Ryan Shazier may have been reflected in Pittsburgh's meltdown defending running backs late last year, but the fact is the loss was felt in far more than an emotional way. With Vince Williams the main replacement for Shazier, the Steelers went on to allow an eye-popping 875 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns to opposing backfields in five games (counting playoffs). That free-for-all of yards and scores included a two-score day for Javorius Allen, a 108-yard rushing effort by Alfred Blue and 77 scrimmage yards and a score for T.J. Yeldon on just eight touches. Hyde, who looked quick, physical and highly motivated in the preseason should feast on this defense after their only "upgrade" to the linebacking corps was signing Jon Bostic away from the Colts to join his fourth team in as many years.

Chris Carson, SEA at DEN

Although Rashaad Penny will play in the season opener less than four weeks after breaking a finger on his left hand, the backfield touches still figure to be dominated by Carson, who was already firmly ahead of the rookie in the backfield pecking order before the injury. While the matchup with a Denver defense that allowed the fewest yards per carry in the league in 2017 at 3.3 is less than advantageous, it's still hard to bench a physical runner like Carson when he may be staring 20 touches in the face. After all, the Seahawks have a major dearth of weapons to whom they can spread it around, so someone has to answer the bell.

Jordan Wilkins, IND vs. CIN

Here's the skinny: Wilkins was an underappreciated talent entering the 2018 NFL Draft – 6.5 YPC in the SEC, including a 100-yard effort versus Alabama – and after a strong preseason, he'll start behind a Quenton Nelson-led offensive line while a bum hamstring sidelines Marlon Mack. So not only will he get the bulk of the carries for an offense which should make huge strides on the ground (seriously, Nelson is the league's next dominant lineman), but Wilkins will also get the joy of facing a Bengals defense sans their best run defender. Vontaze Burfict will start another year on suspension, and in five of the six games Cincinnati was without him in 2017, they allowed an average of 140.2 rushing yards to opposing backfields and five ground scores. For comparison, they gave up just 98.6 yards per game with him.

Tarik Cohen, CHI at GB

Only seven teams allowed more receptions and only 10 teams allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Packers did in 2017. And that was with eight-year vet Morgan Burnett (now in Pittsburgh) playing 12 games at safety. Those struggles defending tailbacks coming out of the backfield were likely a large factor in the decision to trade up and draft Oren Burks in the third round of this year's draft to line up next to Blake Martinez, who is a step slow in coverage. With Burks sidelined or limited from a separated shoulder, expect Matt Nagy to exploit Green Bay's lack of linebacker speed with the super shifty Cohen who figures to be a larger part of Chicago's offense after snagging 53 passes as a rookie.

WR

Mike Williams, LAC vs. KC

Williams stands 6 -4, 220 pounds with over 33-inch arms. The Chiefs don't have a cornerback taller than 5-11 that has played a snap in an NFL regular-season game. After the Chargers drafted Williams in the top 10 of the 2017 draft and waited patiently for him to return to full strength during an injury-marred rookie year, they are eager to see him do exactly what he did to Seattle in the preseason when he Randy Mossed a defensive back on a jump ball TD. And it's safe to imagine Philip Rivers – who didn't throw that one to him – is dying to test out that new weapon against the undersized and overmatched KC corners.

Will Fuller, HOU at NE

One of the under-the-radar chess matches of Week 1 will be Bill O'Brien scheming to open deep shots to Fuller and Bill Belichick positioning his guys to prevent them. Working against the elder Bill, however, is that Fuller holds the ace. None of the New England corners can run with Fuller's sub-4.3 speed, which is especially an issue when their safeties have to be focused on the whereabouts of DeAndre Hopkins. And even if Belichick can successfully prevent a Fuller home run, it will be awfully tough to contain that speed all afternoon in what could resemble the 2017 shootout that served as Deshaun Watson's coming-out party.

John Ross, CIN at IND

Let's not overthink this one. If at all in need of a big flex performance, Ross is as good a swing-for-the-fences option as you might find. Indy's top four cornerbacks probably couldn't crack a 4.5 40 time on their best days. While Malik Hooker will be preoccupied with A.J. Green, Ross is a near mortal lock to get behind the defense a few times. With his world-class speed, it only takes one play to equal a good start.

Kelvin Benjamin, BUF at BAL

One man's trash is another man's treasure. Sure, the Ravens led the league in interceptions in 2017 and were top-10 in yards and touchdowns allowed through the air. And yes, the Bills will be playing in their house starting a second-year pro who completed 49.0 percent of his passes as a rookie for a pitiful 5.1 YPA and averaged an interception on more than 10 percent of his throws. So yeah, there's potential for a lot of trash. But for the fantasy owner dumpster-diving for flex help, Benjamin could be treasure. The Ravens are down top corner Jimmy Smith – Pro Football Focus' 12th-best cover corner in 2017 – due to a suspension. When Smith missed four games last December, the Ravens pass defense suffered, giving up 272.3 yards per game (compared to 194.3 in the other 12 contests) and six of the 18 passing scores they relented on the season. And that was against a crop of passers that included DeShone Kizer, Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton. While everyone is throwing intense shade at Nathan Peterman, don't forget those numbers – or the four catches, 59 yards and a score he connected with Benjamin for in one preseason drive – when looking for a flex.

Quincy Enunwa, NYJ at DET

The Jets will be visiting the Lions with a rookie quarterback under center looking to make quick, rhythm throws whenever possible. When Sam Darnold does this, he figures to lock eyes with Enunwa. The Detroit defense allowed 14.1 yards per catch and eight touchdowns to tight ends in 2017, and while Enunwa is no tight end by title, he's essentially the de facto version of one in Gang Green's offense. At 6-2, 225 pounds, he's a beast of a receiver with strong hands to snatch the ball in traffic and the quickness to burn linebackers from the slot – much like a tight end. With Jermaine Kearse suffering from an abdomen injury, don't expect him to be robbing Enunwa of any snaps or targets as the veteran starts his comeback campaign as the Jets' likely top target.

Tyler Lockett, SEA at DEN

With Doug Baldwin fighting through a sore knee and stud slot corner Chris Harris likely shadowing him most of the day, Lockett figures to be in line for an unusually large target share as the clear No. 2 receiver for Seattle. Given that the depleted Seahawks defense could struggle to contain a restocked Broncos offense, Russell Wilson may have to uncork a few of his beautiful deep balls to the lightning-fast Lockett in a come from behind effort. If that's the case, the typically boom-or-bust wideout could start the year off with a bang.

TE

Eric Ebron, IND vs. CIN

In Andrew Luck's last two full seasons, he threw a combined 30 touchdowns to his tight ends, with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen each snagging eight in 2014 and Allen and Jack Doyle catching at least five apiece in 2016. That spells deep-league utility with TE1 upside every week for Ebron, who happens to have more career catches than everyone in an Indy uniform except T.Y. Hilton, including 102 more than No. 2 wideout Ryan Grant. After catching all nine targets for 70 yards and Luck's only touchdown in the preseason, Ebron is poised for a strong start against a Bengals defense that gave up the ninth-most yards to opposing tight ends last year.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, JAC at NYG

Blake Bortles threw 24 touchdown passes in 2017 (counting playoffs), and exactly one-third of those went to a tight end, including six to the man Seferian-Jenkins replaced as the team's No. 1: Marcedes Lewis. Although the Giants defense could look significantly different with a new scheme led by a new coordinator, it's still featuring many of the same pieces that were a part of a unit that gave up a league-high 13 scores to tight ends in 2017. With a big body like Seferian-Jenkins in the red zone, that trend could carry over into a new year.

DOWNGRADE

Russell Wilson, SEA at DEN

Despite being the fourth-most-sacked quarterback in 2017, Wilson led the league in touchdown passes and generally turned in an MVP-caliber campaign. He did that aerial damage, however, with a healthy Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson scoring nearly half the 34 touchdowns he threw. The latter two are gone, of course, and the former is battling a knee injury. A run-heavy approach may limit Wilson early in the contest, and when he eventually does have to open up the pass attack, the pursuit from Von Miller and fifth overall pick Bradley Chubb figure to cap his upside while he struggles to find open receivers.

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at MIN

Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it shouldn't be said. Garoppolo was fantastic to close out 2017 on a high note for the Niners, but now defensive coordinators have plenty of tape on him, and the Vikings have plenty of talent to neutralize what he does well. With a tight end that could be limited from injury and a backfield that might not contribute much to the passing game, Jimmy GQ is poised to look uncharacteristically ugly this week.

Matt Ryan, ATL at PHI

The Eagles finished 2017 with 38 sacks despite last year's first-round pick, defensive end Derek Barnett, playing less than half the snaps. They then decided to add veterans Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata to an already loaded defensive line during the offseason. Moreover, it's looking progressively more and more like last year's second-round pick, cornerback Sidney Jones, has Pro Bowl upside in the secondary. Considering these developments, it looks like a Philly defense that was among the 10 stingiest to opposing QBs in terms of fantasy points is going to make Ryan's 2018 season start the way his 2017 finished – going eight straight games without producing multiple touchdowns (counting playoffs).

RB

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. JAC

Let's face it: You're not going to bench Barkley. He cost you a first-round draft pick, and he's the ultra sexy future superstar running back making his regular-season debut. But reality suggests you should give it serious consideration or at least adjust your lineup to offset for modest expectations. In seven games before the Jaguars traded for the beefy, space-eating Marcel Dareus they allowed 599 rushing yards to opposing No. 1 tailbacks at a generous 5.5 YPC. After adding the big guy to their lineup? Top running backs tallied just 419 ground yards in nine contests at a paltry 2.9 YPC. And sure, Dareus is less than 100 percent right now with a pectoral injury. But then again, Barkley took just four preseason carries before a sore hamstring shelved him, too.

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. SF

The Vikings should be able to comfortably win with stout defense and Kirk Cousins' precision passing, so why would they overexert their franchise tailback in his first extended action coming off a torn ACL? Cook saw just two carries the entire preseason, Minnesota is likely without starting center Pat Elflein (ankle) and left tackle Riley Reiff is fighting his own ankle issue. With potential for some blocking struggles and a lighter workload to begin with, plus the fully capable Latavius Murray sharing the ball, Cook's floor and ceiling figure to be deflated this week.

Jordan Howard, CHI at GB

This works in concert with the Tarik Cohen Upgrade note. It sure helps to be able to run the ball to beat Aaron Rodgers and Co., but unfortunately the Packers defense is built to defend the run. Green Bay limited tailbacks to 3.9 YPC in 2017 – one of only nine teams to give up fewer than 4.0 YPC – as they were led in the front seven by league-leading tackler Blake Martinez and beefcakes Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark. In two games against them, Howard failed to post better than 54 yards on the ground despite seeing at least 15 carries in both meetings. Now the Packers should boast an even better run defense with the additions of Muhammad Wilkerson and Antonio Morrison (the thumper that led the quietly effective Colts run defense in tackles).

Alfred Morris, SF at MIN

Generally speaking, the leading rusher in a Kyle Shanahan offense is a good thing to have in fantasy. And most weeks that guy is a no-brainer start. This isn't one of those weeks, of course. The Vikings were the stingiest defense in the league to tailbacks last season, allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position – and that was before they added Sheldon Richardson to a beastly defensive line. With Matt Breida in the mix also clouding Morris' potential usage, it's best to play the wait-and-see game with this backfield for a week.

WR

Odell Beckham, NYG vs. JAC

Just because it's obvious doesn't make it any less true. Beckham is by all accounts 100 percent healthy after a broken ankle cost him all but four games in 2017, but he's yet to suit up in the preseason, so there could be some rust to shake off in Week 1. With Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and the Jaguars pass rush coming to town, he couldn't pick a worse week to need to find his rhythm. Jacksonville's elite pass defense didn't relent 100 receiving yards to anyone not named Antonio Brown in the 2017 regular season and held DeAndre Hopkins to a miserable 4.7 YPT in two meetings over a whopping 29 targets. Benching Beckham – who certainly cost you a first- or high second-round pick – may seem unfathomable, but it also may be the difference between winning and losing a week. At the least, swinging big at the flex spot is advisable if you're starting Beckham.

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. CIN

Andrew Luck doesn't appear to have his long ball ready just yet, which could be damning for Hilton given that he'll line up across from William Jackson. The No. 4 best cover man in 2017 according to Pro Football Focus allowed a putrid 34.9 percent of targets he faced to be caught and gave up zero touchdowns (for comparison's sake, Jalen Ramsey allowed a 51.1 percent completion rate on his targets). Jackson is largely to credit for the Bengals holding Antonio Brown to 166 yards on 25 targets over two games (6.6 YPT), and unless Luck can connect with Hilton for a big gain or two, the career 9.0 YPT wideout is going to see his numbers suffer.

Mike Evans, TB at NO

Throw out the Ryan Fitzpatrick factor. Evans actually averaged 88.3 yards per game in the three contests in which he and Fitzpatrick played the majority in 2017. No, the reason to avoid Evans has nothing to do with his own offense in fact. Marshon Lattimore was so good in his rookie season that he held Evans to 68 yards on 19 targets over two meetings. With Marcus Williams also emerging as a legit playmaker at safety for the Saints, the bottom basement floor simply doesn't make Evans' modest ceiling worth chasing against this defense.

Amari Cooper, OAK vs. LAR

Cooper squared off with Aqib Talib five times facing the Broncos over the last three seasons, and in those meetings he caught 11 of 29 targets for 104 yards, including games of zero, nine and nine yards. Talib is now with the loaded Rams defense that will visit Oakland on Monday night. The end.

TE

George Kittle, SF at MIN

Since there's a fair chance you drafted the trendy breakout tight end as your starter at the position, it feels necessary to include him here despite a separated shoulder that cost him nearly the entire preseason. Even if Kittle plays, dealing with a Vikings back seven captained by 2017 first-team All-Pro Harrison Smith will be quite the chore. After all, there's a reason no defense gave up fewer fantasy points to tight ends last year than Minnesota.

O.J. Howard, TB at NO

After coming on strong to close out his rookie campaign (at least 50 yards or a score in four of his last five outings), Howard looks to be building towards a big sophomore season. Realizing his immense potential might wait a week to get off the ground, however. Led by rookie safety Marcus Williams, who graded out as Pro Football Focus' eighth-best safety in coverage (despite his playoff gaffe versus Stefon Diggs), the Saints allowed the fewest catches and yards to tight ends. Howard himself logged only one grab for six yards in his lone appearance against them, and while it would be hard to not improve on that, hoping for much more against one of the league's most balanced defenses might be wishful thinking.