Exploiting the Matchups: Week 1 Start/Sit and Streamers

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Updated on September 10, 2022 1:47PM EST

Welcome back to Exploiting the Matchups, our classic start/sit article with a dash of spice. The players highlighted will mostly be the types found in tough lineup decisions in leagues with 10 or 12 teams, though we also include some stuff for deeper leagues and DFS, including a lengthy list of Week 1 streamers at the bottom of the article.

If you've been around here for a while you might notice a minor change this year — the inclusion of specific players that should be started (or not) over the guy being discussed. We still show start percentages from Yahoo, and this secondary addition helps add more context.

When we say Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be started this week, we mean over guys like AJ Dillon and Damien Harris, not over third/fourth-round picks like Ezekiel Elliott and Travis Etienne. You probably already know this, but it can still be useful to see the range a player is in and which guys are considered viable alternatives.

Hopefully the new addition can help you with those tough start/sit decisions. If not, go ahead and drop them in the comments below. I may not respond right away, but I'll make sure to answer them all by Saturday morning, once final injury reports have come out. Just remember to mention whether your league is PPR, half or standard scoring; it often makes a big difference among players that are ranked close together (and it's also my pet peeve when people don't it....

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Russell Wilson (vs. SEA) — 23% started

Start Over — Joe Burrow (vs. PIT) / Dak Prescott (vs. TB)

We'll ignore the narrative, as it's hard to say whether Wilson or his old team is more likely to benefit from familiarity and/or the desire for revenge. What we do know is that Wilson is much better equipped to make good on any John Wick-type desires. He's a top-10 quarterback playing behind a solid offensive line, with a trio of talented, young wide receivers and one of the best backfield duos in the league. Seattle's defense, on the other hand, finished 26th in DVOA against the pass last year and now has worst-in-the-league potential without future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner (now playing for the division-rival Rams).

Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (at DET), Kyler Murray (vs. KC), Jameis Winston (at ATL)

Running Backs 👍

Elijah Mitchell (at CHI) — 82% started

Start Over — Cam Akers (vs. BUF) / Dameon Pierce (vs. IND) / David Montgomery (vs. SF)

Mitchell's presumed lack of receiving work should be less of a problem than usual this week with the Niners tied as the biggest favorite (-7) on the season-opening slate. With Wednesday's injury report confirming he's moved past the summer hamstring injury, Mitchell can be fired up as a rock-solid RB2 with a projection of 15-plus carries. He averaged 87.5 rushing yards per game last year, fifth most in the NFL.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (at ARI) — 53% started

Start Over — AJ Dillon (at MIN) / Breece Hall (vs. BAL) / Josh Jacobs (at LAC)

Most of the attention this summer focused on Ronald Jones and Isiah Pacheco, neither of whom mounted a serious challenge for the starting job. That's not to say Edwards-Helaire will be a workhorse, but he's still the starter and can reasonably be projected for 12-16 touches in a game with the highest over/under of the week. While the Cardinals defense played well for much of last season, it faded badly down the stretch and then lost three starters this offseason (OLB Chandler Jones, ILB Jordan Hicks, DT Corey Peters) without signing or drafting comparable replacements.

Other Good Matchups: Javonte Williams + Melvin Gordon (at SEA), Antonio Gibson (vs. JAX), Miles Sanders (at DET), Mike Davis (at NYJ)

Wide Receivers 👍

Marquise Brown (vs. KC) — 62% started

Start Over — DK Metcalf (vs. DEN) / Adam Thielen (vs. GB)

The Chiefs defense always seems to be better than it looks on paper pre-season, but they're really testing things this year with the lack of premium talent behind interior wrecker Chris Jones. It's not just the Chiefs who figure to score a bunch of points in this likely shootout, and while Brown has his flaws, he's the obvious top receiver in Arizona until DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension. The former Raven figures to run most of his routes against rookie corner Trent McDuffie and third-year man L'Jarius Sneed, a duo that could end up being quite good but hasn't proven it yet.

Editor's Note: Cardinals WR Rondale Moore (hamstring) was ruled out Friday, further reducing the competition for targets.

DeVonta Smith (at DET) — 27% started

Start Over — Hunter Renfrow (at LAC) / Brandon Aiyuk (at CHI) / Chris Godwin (at DAL)

The Lions didn't do much to fix their brutal secondary this offseason, instead focusing on the offense and front seven while counting on internal progress and a couple budget signings to bring about improvement on the back end (they spent about $4.5 million on S DeShon Elliott and nickel corner Mike Hughes). Five or six targets might be enough to do the trick for Smith in this matchup, as it's a favorable draw for any and all Eagles, facing a Detroit defense with zero star power and minimal upside beyond rookie Aidan Hutchinson.

Other Good Matchups: Michael Pittman (at HOU), A.J. Brown (at DET), JuJu Smith-Schuster + Marquez Valdes-Scantling + Mecole Hardman (at ARI), Christian Kirk (at WAS), Jarvis Landry (vs. ATL), Rondale Moore + A.J. Green (vs. KC)

Tight Ends 👍

Pat Freiermuth (at CIN) — 33% started

Start Over — David Njoku (at CAR) / Albert Okwuegbunam (at SEA)

The lack of competition at his position in Pittsburgh makes Freiermuth one of the favorites to lead tight ends in snaps this season, and his target share could further benefit if WR Diontae Johnson (shoulder) is absent or limited. Based on his comments this week, Johnson may end up playing but is unlikely to be pain-free by Sunday. The Bengals don't have a bad defense by any means, but they did allow the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends last year while ranking 24th in DVOA defending the position. Consider it an average-to-above-average matchup, with Johnson's shoulder injury being the larger factor.

Other Good Matchups: Dallas Goedert (at DET), Zach Ertz (vs. KC), Mo Alie-Cox (at HOU), Gerald Everett (vs. LV)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Kirk Cousins (vs. GB) — 23% started

Start Instead — Derek Carr (at LAC) / Trey Lance (at CHI)

The Vikings' implied total of 22.75 points ranks 20th among all teams this week, even though they have a good offense and start the season at home. It's a low number at first glance but makes more sense when we look at Green Bay's defensive depth chart — one with no glaring holes now that top corner Jaire Alexander is back healthy after an injury-marred 2021. The other issue is the Packers offense, which ranked dead last in pace the past two seasons and may now run the ball even more in the absence of WR Davante Adams. Overall volume tends to be an issue for Green Bay's opponents, with the defense finishing bottom 10 in snaps each of the past three years.

Other Tough Matchups: Justin Fields (vs. SF), Mac Jones (at MIA)

Running Backs 👎

Cam Akers (vs. BUF) — 80% started

Start Instead — Travis Etienne at WAS / Elijah Mitchell at CHI / Chase Edmonds vs. NE

The appeal of drafting Akers is his shot at being used as a three-down workhorse in one of the better offenses in the league — the type of situation where a merely good RB can produce the stats typically reserved for top players. But it doesn't look like Akers will have that type of role, at least not initially, with reports out of camp consistently suggesting he and Darrell Henderson have split first-team reps. Akers is the favorite to have a larger share of that, fair enough, but even 60-70 percent of the workload might not be enough for a big game against Buffalo's stout defense, a unit that allowed the sixth fewest points to RBs last year.

I also wonder if rookie Kyren Williams could get involved. Sean McVay really seems to like him, though it's probably a down-the-road thing, not a Week 1 thing. Williams did miss all of camp after breaking his foot this spring. Mostly I just want to mention him because he's become one of my favorite endgame picks and I know some people still have drafts or auctions coming up. Give Williams a look if you're mining for RB magic outside the top-200 picks.

AJ Dillon (at MIN) — 64% started

Start Instead — Antonio Gibson (vs. JAX) / Clyde Edwards-Helaire (at ARI) / Chase Edmonds (vs. NE)

The Minnesota defense endured a tough 2021, but opponent-adjusted metrics like DVOA (9th vs. the run) at least paint a more favorable picture than the raw stats (2,222 rushing yards, 15 TDs), in large part because the Vikes got toasted by some top run offenses (CLE, SF, BAL) but mostly held their own otherwise. They then made big changes in the offseason, switching from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 under a new coaching staff and later swapping out DT Michael Pierce for DL Harrison Phillips, LB Anthony Barr for OLB Za'Darius Smith and LB Nick Vigil for LB Jordan Hicks. Only the last move is an indisputable upgrade, but it nonetheless creates a strong front seven on paper, featuring five quality starters (Phillips, Smith, Hicks, LB Eric Kendricks, DT Dalvin Tomlinson) and one legit star (EDGE Danielle Hunter).

The bigger issue for Dillon, of course, is the presence of Aaron Jones. Part of Dillon's value is based on his sky-high ceiling if Jones misses time; which means there are probably some guys drafted after Dillon who should be started over him so long as Jones is on the field. Both have a great matchup around the corner in Week 2 when the Packers host the Bears on Sunday Night Football.

Other Tough Matchups: David Montgomery (vs. SF), Ezekiel Elliott + Tony Pollard (vs. TB), Dameon Pierce (vs. IND), Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. NO)

Wide Receivers 👎

Brandin Cooks (vs. IND) — 60% started

Start Instead — Gabriel Davis (at LAR) / Michael Thomas (at ATL) / Marquise Brown (vs. KC)

The Colts held Cooks to 137 yards and no TDs on 19 targets last year, and they may be even tougher on him after signing a supposedly rejuvenated Stephen Gilmore, who figures to have shadowing opportunities under Gus Bradley. Indy's new defensive coordinator often put Casey Hayward in shadow coverage against top receivers during his time with both the Chargers and Raiders, finding success more often than not. And even if Gilmore doesn't shadow, the Colts have an above-average No. 2 corner in Kenny Moore, who also plays the slot in nickel packages.

Amari Cooper (at CAR) — 34% started

Start Instead — Darnell Mooney (vs. SF) / DeVonta Smith (at DET) / Christian Kirk (at WAS)

The Panthers don't have a dominant secondary by any means, but they do have an impressive pass rush led by first-round picks Brian Burns and Derrick Brown, while the Browns are quarterbacked by a statue who holds onto the ball too long yet doesn't take many deep shots. Plus, both teams likely will want to run a lot in this matchup, with the running backs far better than the QBs on both sides and Cleveland's interior defense an obvious weakness on paper. It could be a low-volume game for both QBs, negating Cooper's lofty target share projection in an offense that lacks other receiving weapons.

Other Tough Matchups: Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. PHI), Drake London (vs. NO), Corey Davis (vs. BAL)

Tight Ends 👎

Cole Kmet (vs. SF) — 41% started

Start Instead — Pat Freiermuth (at CIN) / Zach Ertz (vs. KC, if he plays)

In one sense, this matchup might work in Kmet's favor, with San Francisco's formidable pass rush potentially encouraging the Bears to throw more short passes. The problem is that Kmet will be guarded by one of the league's better LB groups on many of his routes, and he hasn't yet shown much ability to make an impact downfield or after the catch. He also hasn't done much near the goal line, to say the least, and that's unlikely to change Sunday with the Bears having the lowest implied total (17) of Week 1. I'd take the 'over' on that number, for what it's worth, but there's no question the Niners defense is significantly better than the Bears offense.

Other Tough Matchups: Kyle Pitts (vs. NO), Tyler Higbee (vs. BUF)