Exploiting the Matchups: Week 11 Start/Sit

Just like any fantasy enthusiast, I listen to podcasts occasionally to help fill me in on news that I might otherwise miss and hear different takes on players. A trivia question from Wednesday's "The Fantasy Record" podcast with Brad Evans and Brandon Funston gave me an immediate flashback to what I personally feel was the best introduction I ever wrote for this column.

The question (paraphrasing): What player piled up a monstrous 37/201/4 line four years ago tomorrow (11/16/2014)?

First clue: He played for four teams, including Miami twice. Second clue: a one-time Sports Illustrated cover boy. Third clue: Notre Dame alum. Final clue: Super Bowl champion.

As a proud Notre Dame alum myself, I immediately new the answer when I heard the stat line, and just like that, this week's introduction was written.

An anomaly of a performance by New England's fourth-string running back, Jonas Gray, a thumping of the Colts on Sunday Night Football remains my favorite fantasy football memory and a topic of conversation to this day in my Simpsons-themed Max Power keeper league. That performance brought my older brother back from a huge deficit to beat my now brother-in-law and gave him an unexpected bright spot in an otherwise awful season that finished 5-11. Yes, his team was that messy that he started Gray (also, as a Notre Dame fan, he knew Gray was talented, though bias may have had a teensy influence).

And that shocking comeback inspired these exact words in the following week's introduction:

[Referring to Gray's epic effort] "It set the stage for an extremely important fantasy lesson that gets lost in the November dusk of long football seasons. With playoffs looming, those teams humbled by bad picks, bad injuries and general misfortune typically lose focus and return to a boring life that is anything but fantasy. They quit making moves and throw in the proverbial towel. Gray authored a demonstrative chapter on why you should NEVER STOP TRYING."

In that league, that year, that's exactly what my brother did with a team destined to be a loser. He wheeled, he dealed and, eventually, he added two picks in the following draft's top four overall. He didn't win a title the next year, but he established a keeper core that helped him to a 2016 championship. All because he didn't get overly discouraged and kept competing every week.

Not all of us play in keeper leagues. Not all of us still have our trade deadline in front of us. And not all of us care enough to compete every week. But for those of us who do, keep pushing, keep grinding and win whenever we can, even if just to play the spoiler -- just like Gray, who never gave up and ended his brief two-year career with an SI cover, a Super Bowl XLIX ring and one hell of a story.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier -- or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB at NYG

Fitzpatrick's magic touch was temperamental last week, but he still managed to throw for 406 yards at 9.9 YPA and scramble for 35 on the ground. Sure, he threw two picks and no scores, but the effort marked his fourth 400-yard outing in just five full games. The interceptions will likely happen, but they'll be offset by gaudy yardage numbers and, more often than not, big touchdown output: He has racked up 17 in the equivalent of 18 of his 24 quarters played, with three four-score performances. Facing a Giants defense that let Nick Mullens throw for 250 and a score with pretty much just George Kittle, Marquise Goodwin and Matt Breida at his disposal, Fitz will go full magic once again.

Marcus Mariota, TEN at IND

The Mariota that generated a lot of buzz after a big second season is back. That guy logged an eight-game streak with multiple touchdown passes, in which he piled up 23 total scores while throwing only three interceptions. He's back. He nearly beat the Chargers going into his bye week, and he has led four scoring drives in consecutive wins coming out of it. In that three-game stretch, he completed 71.8 percent of his passes, netted 8.3 YPA and totaled six touchdowns against one interception. Oh, and he logged 91 yards with his legs and added a 21-yard catch for good measure. The Matt LaFleur offense is finally awake and just in time for a potential shootout with a rising division rival that just allowed Blake Bortles to pitch it for 320 yards and two scores.

Dak Prescott, DAL at ATL

Don't overthink this. Prescott's recent play is reminiscent of his 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. He's generated multiple scores in four straight and five of his last six games, with four of those contests including 240-plus passing yards. He's added a rushing score to his production in three of the last four. The Falcons have allowed all but two quarterbacks they've faced to reach at least 399 yards passing or three scores through the air, including the surgically efficient 216 yards at 10.8 YPA and three TDs rookie Baker Mayfield just burned them for.

Eli Manning, NYG vs. TB

Sure, it's been a less than exciting season for Manning and the Giants offense. The veteran has had one cement foot in the football grave for a long time now, but surprisingly Monday night marked his first game all year below 224 yards passing. Fortunately, he offset the dip in yardage with his first three touchdown effort of the season. Very quietly he'd averaged 330.5 yards in the previous four games, with none below 281. There's simply been a dearth of touchdowns. But a Buccaneers team that has allowed a league-high 23 passing scores can fix that. With Tampa Bay's miserable defense suffering another setback with Lavonte David's sprained MCL, count on the most complete game of Manning's season as the proud signal caller clings to his job for dear life.

RB

Alex Collins, BAL vs. CIN

Collins has managed to save his mediocre yardage production through nine games by generating seven touchdowns on only 122 touches. In fact, he's been a solid-floor, low-ceiling play nearly every week with only one game without a score AND below 66 scrimmage yards. The problem is that he also has produced 75 yards or better just once, with 90 coming way back in Week 2. Fortunately, for any owners that have been patiently waiting for a big day, they'll finally be paid off this Sunday. The new-look Bungles will be coming to town, and it really doesn't matter who is under center for the Ravens – they will run the ball a lot with great success. The Saints are not the best measuring stick, to be sure, but Cincy just allowed 324 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns to their running backs. Collins should be Riverdancing all the way to his first 100-yard day, and likely with his eighth score.

Doug Martin, OAK at ARI

With six teams on bye eliminating a bunch of flex-worthy tailbacks, Martin becomes an obvious option. In three games as a starter Martin has averaged 15 touches for 83.3 scrimmage yards and has not been a victim of game script, as he even generated 69 yards in a blowout versus the 49ers. Given the Arizona struggles on offense, this should be a more tightly contested game, giving Martin more opportunities to cross the 100-yard threshold and perhaps find the end zone for the first time this season. After all, the Cardinals have given up at least 90 scrimmage yards to a running back in all but one game and have allowed 13 touchdowns to the position (second most in the league).

Derrick Henry, TEN at IND

The yards have not been there. All. Season. Long. Henry's season high is 65 yards, which he registered in London in Week 7, but he's managed at least 56 in five of nine contests, and more importantly, the Titans are finally using him for what he's built for – a red-zone hammer. The 247-pound, chiseled tailback that resembles a character out of the Marvel universe has made a 1-yard touchdown plunge in three straight games and added a 10-yard walk-in last week for good measure after softening the Patriots' tired defense with five straight fourth-quarter runs. The Colts may have had more damage done to them by running backs in the passing game this season, but let's not confuse their smallish front seven for a tough run defense. Indy has allowed five running backs to register at least 60 scrimmage yards during their three-game win streak. Henry and his fresh thoroughbred legs are about to add another name to that list while he rides a three-game streak of his own.

Peyton Barber, TB at NYG

In seven games with Damon Harrison manning the middle of their defensive line, Big Blue was solid against the run, giving up just 83.4 rushing yards per game to tailbacks. In the two outings since they traded the man known simply as "Snacks," Adrian Peterson and Matt Breida gashed the Giants for over 100 yards and a score on the ground, with each averaging at least 5.7 YPC and also adding a score as a receiver. Barber has been inconsistent all year with more downs than ups, but he has generated at least 66 yards in three of his last five games, with TDs in two of them and has double-digit carries in each. This week he could finally give Tampa Bay a serious running threat.

WR

Corey Davis, TEN at IND

The Colts defense looks good versus wide receivers on paper -- and on paper alone. A cursory closer inspection will unveil why: They played the Redskins, Jets, Bills, Raiders, Jaguars and the Eagles without Alshon Jeffery. The three best wideouts they faced – A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Gordon – combined for 311 yards and three TDs on 18 catches. Each one of them had at least 50 yards and a score. Davis, coming off the second-best game of his career with 125 and a score despite seeing Stephon Gilmore in coverage, is rounding a corner in conjunction with Marcus Mariota's weekly improvement. What's more, he's getting to be a target hog again. Mariota has attempted fewer than 30 passes in consecutive games, but Davis has seen 10 targets in each, for a whopping 37.7 percent target share. When Tennessee is forced to throw a bit more to keep pace with a Colts offense that's scored at least 29 in five of its last six, Davis will get fed again.

Anthony Miller, CHI vs. MIN

When the Bears can't run on the Vikings' third-ranked run defense with an underperforming Jordan Howard and Allen Robinson is being smothered in coverage by Xavier Rhodes, Chicago's rookie wideout will step up. Coming off a breakthrough performance and major confidence booster with 122 yards and a score on five grabs, Miller is going to abuse slot corner Mackensie Alexander. Per Pro Football Focus, the 1.71 yards per coverage snap Alexander has given up when defending the slot is the fourth-highest mark among corners with at least 150 coverage snaps in the slot.

Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. TB

Shepard saved his fantasy day versus the Niners with a 27-yard run and his clutch game-winning touchdown grab. He was otherwise a ghost with just three targets and nine yards receiving. That's the exception to the rule, however, as he'd seen at least seven targets in the six games prior with at least 75 yards in four of them. Facing a Tampa Bay defense that's tied for the most TDs allowed to wideouts, Shepard's impact should spike again.

Demaryius Thomas, HOU at WAS

Among the 24 teams that have already had their bye week, the Redskins are one of only three to have allowed wide receivers to pile up at least 125 catches, 1,750 yards and 10 touchdowns (the Saints and Bengals being the others). The list of wideouts who have reached at least 70 yards against them runs 13 deep and includes the likes of Chris Godwin, Michael Gallup, Allen Hurns, Cameron Meredith and Tre'Quan Smith, all of whom registered season highs in not just yards but also catches against Washington. Thomas, who caught all three of his targets for 61 yards in his debut as a Texan, is poised to improve on that coming out of the team's bye week.

Golden Tate, PHI at NO

The Saints have allowed over 227.0 yards per game and 10.0 YPT to wide receivers – crazy numbers, for sure – and have given up a league-high 16 touchdowns to them as well. Basically, every week against New Orleans, especially in New Orleans, sets up as a passing smorgasbord for their opponents. And sure, that means Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz will probably be going off in this game. But there's going to be plenty of meat on the bone in a battle that might feature about as much defense as the Saints vs. Rams 45-35 shootout did. And for all the problems the Eagles have been experiencing as a team, Carson Wentz and the aerial attack are not one of them. Tate saw four targets on 18 snaps less than two weeks after arriving in Philly. That's a target on 22.2 percent of his snaps. If his snaps double in a pass-heavy contest and that percentage remains, he could see upwards of eight targets. With Tate's exceptional ability after the catch, if he sees that kind of volume facing slot corner turnstile P.J. Williams, big numbers will follow.

John Brown/Willie Snead/Michael Crabtree, BAL vs. CIN

In an Exploiting the Matchups first, three wideouts are worth highlighting as streaming options in the same game. It's a Russian roulette risk, to be sure, but after seeing 11 different pass catchers reach at least 68 yards in the last four games against the Bengals (with seven touchdowns among them), it feels like a safe bet one or more of this threesome will achieve similar feats, regardless of who is under center for the Ravens coming out of their bye week. Brown and Crabtree have the lowest floors, as neither has topped 32 yards in the past two games, but the former torched the Saints in Week 7 for 7/134/1 while the latter went for at least five grabs and 66 yards in three straight from Weeks 5-7. Snead, meanwhile, has at least seven targets in six straight and at least 54 yards in five of those contests. He has the opposite problem of his teammates, however, as he's all floor and no ceiling (no scores since Week 1 and a season-high of 60 yards). If someone craves a home run, Brown is the pick; to just get on base, bunt with Snead or Crabtree.

TE

Evan Engram, NYG vs. TB

No defense has allowed more than the 74.3 yards per game Tampa Bay has given up to tight ends. Although Engram has been slowly working his way back into form after an MCL injury, he's still garnered an average of six targets in his three games since returning and has registered at least 46 yards or a score the last two weeks. Now the hyper-athletic tight end whose season has suffered because of an MCL sprain stands to benefit as much as any Giant because of a sprained MCL on the other side of the ball, as rangy Bucs linebacker Lavonte David is suffering from one. Already down Kwon Alexander (knee), Tampa's epically porous pass defense is going to be even more of a sieve than usual in the middle of the field.

Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI vs. OAK

As with everything else, the Raiders have decided to stop defending tight ends. Having lost five straight games by at least two touchdowns, Jon Gruden has clearly, completely lost this team. As a byproduct, the free-for-all against them has led to six tight end TDs in their last six games – good for the third most in the league allowed to the position for the season. Seals-Jones has not taken the step many thought he would after flashing skills as a rookie last year, but he is coming off a season-high nine targets last week, and his athleticism is going to continue to be featured by new offensive coordinator and former league quarterback Byron Leftwich, particularly with fellow second-year pass catcher Chad Williams sidelined by an ankle injury.

DOWNGRADE

Aaron Rodgers, GB at SEA

There are a lot of factors at play here. Rodgers' performance has not been as sharp as usual, his weapons lack experience, and he's playing a relatively good defense that knows him well on a short week in a venue that's arguably the league's toughest to play. Yikes. The real killer, however, is going to be game flow. The Seahawks' offense leads the league in rushing yards per game and has won the time-of-possession battle in seven straight contests. The Packers, meanwhile, also want to run the ball to better extend drives and balance and offense that sorely lacked it all year before Aaron Jones exploded last Sunday. When both teams are running it down each other's throats (they both give up at least 4.5 YPC), Rodgers won't be throwing it much. Considering Rodgers has only one game of three scores since Week 1 and two above 300 yards, fantasy players can find better options than this gimpy superstar.

Kirk Cousins, MIN at CHI

Khalil Mack. With the quarterback landscape being what it is, sometimes that's all that's needed to make that tough starter decision. If faced with picking between two good players (and let's be real, Cousins is good, not great), do you really want to play the one going against a game-wrecker of Mack's caliber? After sacking Matthew Stafford twice last week, the Bears' MVP seemingly has returned to full strength. Although Cousins has some arguments for him – namely Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs – let's not lose sight of the fact that the latter is playing through a painful rib injury and that Thielen alone won't carry Cousins to any top weeks. With the Bears offense playing a high level, don't be surprised if Minnesota tries to control the clock with a ground-heavy approach that also limits how much Mack can impact the game. Hence, even if he's not disrupting Cousins' timing or forcing him into mistakes, he can still hurt his fantasy day by discouraging the Vikings from throwing altogether. Game. Wrecker.

Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN

See Cousins, Kirk. As game-wreckers come, beyond Mack a certain Broncos linebacker is not far behind. Von Miller has been chasing Rivers for years and has sacked him 15 times in 14 career meetings. Now Miller has a running mate in rookie Bradley Chubb who has eight sacks in his first nine games. This duo will make it tougher than usual for Rivers to attain the elite efficiency he's required in recent weeks to be productive. While Rivers has thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game this year, he's done so in the past five contests despite not throwing more than 27 times in any of them. The bookend rushers will make it more difficult to average 10.6 YPA, lowering his high-floor, low-ceiling profile lower – especially when the Chargers lean on their electric backfield to gash a defense giving up 4.9 YPC to opposing tailbacks.

RB

Marlon Mack, IND vs. TEN

In the two games leading up to Indianapolis' bye week, Mack was fed a hefty 48 touches, with 27 coming in Week 8 despite entering the game with an ankle injury. Yet, despite playing with a lead for all but about seven and a half minutes of action versus Jacksonville, Mack saw only 14 touches. Without his usual chunk gains, the slashing second-year runner posted fewer than 93 scrimmage yards for the first time since returning from a hamstring injury that cost him four games. Facing a Titans defense that has held Ezekiel Elliott, Sony Michel and James White to a combined 169 yards and no scores on 38 touches the past two weeks (4.3 yards per touch), Mack could struggle again despite the surging Colts offense.

Joe Mixon, CIN at BAL

In Cincinnati's last three losses, Mixon has not topped 15 touches or 85 scrimmage yards, with a low of 51 yards in a blowout at the hands of Kansas City, and the Chiefs have allowed more fantasy points (PPR scoring) to running backs than any defense in football. The Ravens, conversely, have allowed the fewest points to opposing tailbacks, including holding Mixon out of the end zone in a Week 2 contest in which Mixon fought through a knee issue. His yardage didn't suffer too much in that contest because a Bengals lead allowed him to accumulate 21 carries, but given the state of Cincinnati's dead-last defense -- which is giving up over 450.0 yards per game on average – Mixon will have difficulty getting too much volume. He'll need to score the way Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara did in recent weeks versus Baltimore (that prolific pair totaled only 131 combined yards). The likely absence of A.J. Green will limit Cincinnati's ability to balance the offense, though, and the Bengals aren't likely to visit the red zone much, if at all.

Mark Ingram, NO vs. PHI

After exploding for the second time this season, Ingram will be heading right back into hiding. The Eagles have given up the second-fewest touchdowns to opposing running backs and have been particularly stingy on the ground (save for the beating they took by Ezekiel Elliott last week). Only the Saints themselves have allowed fewer rushing yards to tailbacks, so expect more of the Alvin Kamara show in the passing game as Drew Brees surgically removes the heart from a depleted Philadelphia secondary. Ingram will be involved primarily for the tough yardage, and if he's lucky, he'll save an underwhelming day with a score. The problem is, that's also been Kamara's job this year. Dude has six rushing scores the last four weeks and 11 on the season.

WR

Mike Evans, TB at NYG

The devastating connection Evans and Ryan Fitzpatrick shared in Weeks 1-3 and the second half of the Bengals game has fizzled out the past two Sundays. Evans followed up a putrid game versus Carolina (10 targets, ONE CATCH, 16 yards) with just three grabs for 51 yards, giving him less than 60 yards and no scores in four of his last six games. Facing a Giants defense that's quietly given up the fewest touchdowns and eighth-fewest yards to wide receivers, Evans looks like a boom-or-bust option that could break a starting lineup.

Tyler Boyd, CIN at BAL

Boyd's Week 2 breakout performance that jumpstarted what should be his first 1,000-yard campaign came against the division rival Ravens he'll visit this week. But the 91 yards he produced that night remain the single-game high that Baltimore has allowed to anyone. They've twice held Antonio Brown below 70 yards since then. Michael Thomas failed to hit that mark, too. With A.J. Green (toe) likely sidelined, Boyd is the de facto No. 1 target for the Bengals. Yet in his first game without Green at the center of a defense's attention, he managed only 65 yards against a Saints secondary that's given up over 2,000 yards to wide receivers in nine games. Traveling to Baltimore to face the Ravens coming out of their bye week, Boyd is downright unstartable.

Allen Robinson, CHI vs. MIN

In Week 10, Robinson proved himself fully healthy in the first monster game he's had since his breakout 2015 campaign. He's now scored in the last three games for which he's been at full strength. In the Bears' explosive pass attack, the second stanza for his first season in Chicago could be huge. But it will likely take a one-week hiatus with the Vikings coming to town. The best three receivers to tangle with Minnesota corner Xavier Rhodes – Davante Adams, Alshon Jeffery and Michael Thomas – all failed to hit the century mark and generated a combined 15 catches, 184 yards and one score (belonging to Adams in Week 2). Once upon a time, Robinson might have been considered on a level equal to or above this trio, but now, he still has much to prove that he's deserving of such consideration.