Exploiting the Matchups: Week 14 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Updated on December 5, 2024 5:16PM EST

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Sam Darnold (vs. ATL) — 53% started

Start Over — Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NYJ), Jared Goff (vs. GB), Jordan Love (at DET)

Darnold rebounded from his mid-season swoon with three straight games of at least 235 passing yards and two TDs the past three weeks, pushing him back up to QB10 in per-game fantasy scoring (18.1). He's topped 15 points in all but two games and 17 points in all but three, lingering in that 17-24 range with remarkable consistency. That's right where we should find him this weekend, playing a home game indoors against a subpar defense. The Falcons have allowed the seventh most fantasy points per game to QBs and the fifth most EPA per dropback (0.07). They have six fewer sacks (15) than any other team and the highest opponent completion percentage (71.6), showing us what a lousy version of bend-but-don't-break looks like.

Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (vs. CAR), Baker Mayfield (vs. LV), Sam Darnold (vs. ATL), Will Levis (vs. JAX), Drew Lock (vs. NO), Derek Carr (at NYG), Aidan O'Connell (at TB)

Running Backs 👍

Tony Pollard (vs. JAX) — 65% started

Start Over — Chuba Hubbard (at PHI), D'Andre Swift

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Sam Darnold (vs. ATL) — 53% started

Start Over — Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NYJ), Jared Goff (vs. GB), Jordan Love (at DET)

Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (vs. CAR), Baker Mayfield (vs. LV), Sam Darnold (vs. ATL), Will Levis (vs. JAX), Drew Lock (vs. NO), Derek Carr (at NYG), Aidan O'Connell (at TB)

Running Backs 👍

Tony Pollard (vs. JAX) — 65% started

Start Over — Chuba Hubbard (at PHI), D'Andre Swift (at SF), Najee Harris (vs. CLE)

Pollard has been surprisingly steady when the Titans don't get blown out, scoring at least 15.2 PPR points in all six of their contests that haven't been multi-score defeats. This week comes with minimal risk of a blowout loss, playing at home against a team with a sitting-duck head coach and Mac Jones as the starting quarterback. Jacksonville also has one of the worst defenses in the league, ranking bottom five in fantasy points allowed to every position, including the second most PPR points surrendered to RBs.

Tyrone Tracy (vs. NO) — 56% started

Start Over — Isiah Pacheco (vs. LAC), Nick Chubb (at PIT), D'Andre Swift (at SF)

Lost fumbles in the previous two games (Weeks 10, 12) didn't cost Tracy playing time in a Thanksgiving loss at Dallas, where he handled 71 percent snap share and 12 of the 20 RB opportunities. You'd like to see a larger share of the touches, but it's possible that part will come around this week, especially if Tracy starts off hot against a Saints defense that's allowed a league-worst 5.5 YPC to running backs from Week 3 onward. While other aspects of the team have been inconsistent since a fluky, 2-0 start, the Saints' run defense has been consistently bad, giving up season highs for rushing yards to everyone from Kyren Williams and Bijan Robinson to Javonte Williams and Sean Tucker.

Other Good Matchups: Saquon Barkley (vs. CAR), Alvin Kamara (at NYG), Bucky Irving & Rachaad White (vs. LV), Rico Dowdle (vs. CIN), Tyrone Tracy (vs. NO)

Wide Receivers 👍

Jakobi Meyers (at LV) — 63% started

Start Over — Jayden Reed (at DET), Marvin Harrison (vs. SEA), DJ Moore (at SF)

Meyers has flirted with WR1 status since missing Weeks 7-8 with an ankle injury, averaging 10.0 targets, 80.6 receiving yards and 16.5 PPR points over the last five games. The version of Tampa Bay's defense he'll face Sunday may be better than what we saw for much of the season, but injuries continue to plague a secondary that was below average even at full strength. In other words, this is a perfect spot for both Meyers and Brock Bowers to pile up points while chasing a deficit.

Jerry Jeudy (at PIT) — 45% started
Jauan Jennings (vs. CHI) — 45% started

Start Over — Reed, Harrison, Moore, Hopkins, Waddle, Cooper, Samuel, Shakir, Thomas, Addison, Allen and more

These guys actually have tough matchups, or at least not good ones, but I'm breaking out of this article's mold to remind people that Jeudy and Jennings have displayed runs of production (and volume) that put them well ahead of some bigger-name, struggling WRs like Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel, Amari Cooper and Michael Pittman. In four games since San Francisco's Week 9 bye, Jennings ranks sixth in the league in target share (32.4 percent), with as many as targets (34) as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle combined. In three games since Cleveland's Week 10 bye, Jeudy has a 23.3 percent target share and leads the NFL in receiving yards (462), air yards (427) and YAC (191), despite playing one of those three contests in bad weather. We can argue all we want about how much the volume is earned vs. given, but either way it'll likely be there for Jennings and Jeudy over the season's final five weeks.

Other Good Matchups: Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison (vs. ATL), Drake London (at MIN), Calvin Ridley & Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (vs. JAX), Malik Nabers & Darius Slayton (vs. NO), Tre Tucker (at TB)

Tight Ends 👍

Cade Otton (vs. LV) — 51% started

Start Over — Kyle Pitts (at MIN), Pat Freiermuth (vs. CLE), Jake Ferguson (vs. CIN)

While he may never again match his three-game run of production Weeks 7-9, there's a nice opportunity looming for Otton to get a bunch of targets against a bad defense. Bucs RB Bucky Irving (hip) and WR Mike Evans (hamstring/calf) both got banged up during the OT win over Carolina on Sunday, potentially making Otton more of a priority relative to the past couple games. And it's not like his volume has been awful since Evans returned; Otton has 10 targets in two games, but he's caught just five of them for 40 yards.

Other Good Matchups: Brock Bowers (at TB), Pat Freiermuth (vs. CLE), Mike Gesicki (at DAL), Chigoziem Okonkwo (vs. JAX), Grant Calcaterra (vs. CAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Geno Smith (at ARZ) — 21% started

Start Instead — Caleb Williams (at SF), Russell Wilson (vs. CLE), Matthew Stafford (vs. BUF)

The Cardinals got the best of Smith two weeks ago and lost anyway, with a game that many projected as a shootout instead ending at 16-6 (in favor of Seattle) after just one TD on offense. The rematch will be higher-scoring, but perhaps not drastically so, as both teams seem to have hit their stride on defense after struggling through rough patches in September/October. The over/under (44.5) is much lower than what we saw two weeks ago, and this time with Seattle as a 2.5/3-point underdog instead of a pick'em or one-point 'dog.

Other Tough Matchups: Jordan Love (at DET), Geno Smith (at ARZ), Bryce Young (at PHI), Jameis Winston (at PIT)

Running Backs 👎

Chuba Hubbard (at PHI) — 61% started

Start Instead — Rico Dowdle (vs. CIN), Isaac Guerendo (vs. CHI), Tyrone Tracy (vs. NO)

The Eagles may defend the pass better than the run, but they've nonetheless been a brutal matchup for RBs, with general defensive dominance being a limiting factor on both overall rushing volume and goal-line carries. They've yet to allow an individual RB performance with multiple TDs, or more than 17.6 PPR points or 97 rushing yards, and only two players (Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara) have taken more than 16 carries against the Eagles defense. Don't expect Hubbard to make it a trio, playing as a double-digit underdog on the road after yielding one-third of the RB carries (six of 18) to Jonathon Brooks in Sunday's loss to Tampa Bay. Concerns here pertain to both volume and efficiency.

Jaylen Warren (vs. CLE) — 33% started

Start Instead — Travis Etienne (at TEN), Isiah Pacheco (vs. LAC), Nick Chubb (at PIT)

Warren's four best PPR scores of the year have come in the four games since Pittsburgh's Week 10 bye, including a season-high 15.4 points when the Steelers faced the Browns in the snow two weeks ago. It's enough to make Warren playable in deep leagues or as a desperation bye-week replacement, but don't get any big ideas like viewing him as a reliable RB2 for fantasy. He got just three carries and 38 percent of snaps in a 44-38 win at Cincinnati on Sunday, not only taking a backseat to Najee Harris but also losing a bunch of backup work to Cordarrelle Patterson (15% snaps, three carries, three targets). Warren's workload floor is lower than his recent production suggests, and he'll be up against a solid Cleveland defense that's allowing the seventh fewest PPR points to running backs.

Other Tough Matchups: Bijan Robinson (at MIN), Nick Chubb (at PIT), Gus Edwards (at KC), Tyler Allgeier (at MIN)

Wide Receivers 👎

Davante Adams & Garrett Wilson (at MIA) — 72/75% started

Start Instead — Jakobi Meyers (at TB), Ladd McConkey (at KC), Malik Nabers (vs. NO)

DK Metcalf, Marvin Harrison, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are the only wide receivers that have topped 63 receiving yards against the Dolphins this season, with Nacua being the only one since Week 5 to draw more than seven targets. Miami's Jalen Ramsey-led secondary has remained strong even when hit by injuries, and there's some chance the other starting cornerbacks will return this Sunday, after both Kendall Fuller (concussion) and Kader Kohou (back) managed limited practice participation to start the week. FWIW, Adams is averaging 9.7 targets but only 12.9 PPR points since joining the Jets, putting him closer to WR3 status than to his familiar WR1 turf. Wilson has been just marginally better, averaging 8.5 targets and 13.6 PPR points since the Jets traded for Wilson. Both should be treated as mid-to-low WR2s in a tough matchup this week, making them benchable in shallow leagues (or for teams that are absolutely stacked at the position).

Deebo Samuel (vs. CHI) — 57% started

Start Instead — DeAndre Hopkins (vs. LAC), Jerry Jeudy (at PIT), Jauan Jennings (vs. CHI)

Christian McCaffrey's departure from the San Francisco offense helps everyone else, definitively lowering the RB target share and arguably reducing the expected volume of rush attempts. The problem is that Samuel already had plenty of chances to benefit from this same situation and ended up taking a backseat to Jauan Jennings and/or George Kittle more often than not. The 49ers surely will have designed touches for Samuel, but earning additional targets (including downfield looks) will be a challenge, as he's not especially good at getting open and will be up against a solid Bears secondary. Maybe he'll break that one big play or score a TD on the ground (remember those?); if not, there's serious risk of another 5-30-0 type stat line.

Other Tough Matchups: Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle (vs. NYJ), Puka Nacua (vs. BUF), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at ARZ), Adam Thielen, David Moore & Xavier Legette (at PHI), Quentin Johnston (at KC)

Tight Ends 👎

Tucker Kraft (at DET) — 37% started

Start Instead — T.J. Hockenson (vs. ATL), Evan Engram (at TEN), Cade Otton (vs. LV)

Averaging 4.1 targets per game, Kraft is highly dependent on touchdowns and big plays, with last week being just the second time all season that he's caught more than four passes. A Week 9 matchup with the Lions helped him get a bit more volume than usual (six targets), but that led to just four catches for 34 yards against a tough defense that's shut down TEs all season long. No team has allowed fewer yards or PPR points to the position, and only Denver has been stingier in terms of yards per target (5.2 vs. 5.6). Some of that is due to facing a lot of teams with average or subpar tight ends, but the Lions also have shut down Trey McBride (3-25-0 in Week 3), Jake Ferguson (3-11-0 in Week 6) and Evan Engram (5-28-0 in Week 11). In fact, Seahawks backup AJ Barner is the only tight end with a TD or double-digit PPR points against Detroit this year.