Exploiting the Matchups: Week 16 Start/Sit

I've written this column for five years now. When it's come to championship week, I've written some variation of advising those of us fortunate enough to be playing for one to seek opportunity over talent and beer over stress.

Those tough decisions are certainly magnified by the stakes, but the stress of making them shouldn't displace the joy of being here, in the moment, to watch it all unfold. Few get to be so lucky. And for that stress, I can help. I have a tiebreaker system of sorts to make things easier, sort of like playing "by the book" in blackjack.

It goes like this:

1. Opportunity (who has the clearest path to catches/runs/throws)
2. Talent (who wins the eye-test award, has proven production)
3. Matchup (weigh much lighter, with only consideration for extreme good/bad)

On the last note, I'll add that weather should be considered this time of year for outdoor venues, but it doesn't look like any blizzards will be getting in the way of fantasy production.

Finally, I'm adding one piece to the above formula that in years past I personally have not considered enough in some instances, and often it's applied to selecting a team defense as well: What is a team playing for?

When looking at the matchups and trying to attack extremely friendly defenses, consider also if a team is already on vacation mentally because of how a disappointing season has unfolded. Typically, these teams will really phone it in when on the road, and more often than not, an opposing backfield benefits most, or a top wide receiver or tight end that's not really being challenged in the first half.

The quarterback can sometimes get the shaft if things quickly turn into a blowout. The best example of a scenario like this developing this week is Jacksonville. A statistically tough defense that's gotten no help from its offense and gone down with the ship in what was supposed to be its year. The Jags are in Miami of all places—not somewhere young athletes go and stay focused and business-oriented. I would not be surprised if they sleepwalk through this game against an opponent still chasing playoff aspirations.

So, with the formula right in front of you, let the math make the decision. If the math gets fuzzy, as math often gets when imbibing the spiked eggnog, go with your gut and keep right on downing drinks until that decision feels good and merry.

Above all else, soak up that exhilarating feeling of playing for all the marbles. The opportunity doesn't come nearly as often as we'd like.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier – or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Drew Brees, NO vs. PIT

Fear not, faithful Brees owners. If you're still alive for a fantasy championship, it's not because of this future Hall of Famer. But if you want to bring home a title, don't you dare bench him. The pesky home/road splits for Brees are not uncharted territory, and his recent nosedive appears to be little more than that. During three straight road trips, the star passer has thrown for a measly 531 yards and two touchdowns combined while also tossing a pick in each game. His past three performances in the cushy confines of his home dome, however, saw Brees tally 880 yards (at exactly 10.0 YPA) and a whopping 12 touchdowns through the air, with four in each contest. And in the two in which he threw at least 30 times, he went for at least 346 yards passing. The Steelers have the kind of talent on the offensive side of the ball to make him have to throw it 30-plus times.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. CIN

Mayfield made it clear after Cleveland's last meeting with Cincinnati that there was some extra incentive to sticking it to his AFC North and in-state rivals. Hue Jackson's presence on the opposite sideline obviously rubs Mayfield the wrong way, and after torching the Bengals for a season-best four touchdown passes on the road, one can only imagine he'll do everything in his power to do likewise when Jackson returns to "The Dawg Pound." With the rookie touchdown pass record and unfathomably even the playoffs still within reach, expect Mayfield to wake up feeling his most dangerous on Sunday morning. Against a defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, that could spell one heck of an encore for the No. 1 overall draft pick.

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI at SF

Touchdowns: 30. Interceptions: 2. It really doesn't get too much friendlier than that. Fresh off a home win over a surging Seattle team, the 49ers have enough tools on offense to make this a contest, so don't fear Trubisky packing up the circus by halftime and leaving town. He'll need to make plays, and the numbers don't lie. San Francisco allows quarterbacks to make a hell of a lot more plays against them than they make against quarterbacks.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. TB

Have no fear: The Bucs are here. Tampa Bay's recent string of box score, mirage success defending the pass can be attributed to a three-game homestand (which included a visit from Cam Newton's geriatric shoulder) and a meeting with Lamar Jackson's legs last Sunday. They'll be in "Jerry World" this week where Prescott will remind everyone why Tampa Bay has allowed 30 passing scores (second-most) and are allowing a league-high 111.1 passer rating.

Josh Johnson, WAS at TEN

Amazingly, despite being down to the Giants 40-0 just five quarters of action ago, the Redskins are still alive in the wild card hunt and could even win the NFC East should the sky happen to fall. Johnson and his poise under pressure have been a big part of that. His two furious touchdown drives in the fourth quarter versus New York served as a crash course in the offense and against one of the toughest pass defenses in the league he managed to lead two scoring drives again in the fourth, this time to beat Jacksonville, while going for 151 with his arm and 49 with his legs. The Titans' matchup is less then ideal, other than the fact that Johnson will almost certainly be playing from behind. For a signal caller who does so much damage with his deft scrambling ability (94 yards and a score on the ground in less than six quarters), the more dropbacks the merrier. For those in two-quarterback or superflex formats, Johnson can be that surprise package nestled deep underneath the tree.

RB

Jamaal Williams, GB at NYJ

Only three defenses entered Week 15 having allowed fewer than the 108.1 scrimmage yards per game Chicago had surrendered to running backs. Then the ho-hum Williams stepped in for an injured Aaron Jones (knee) to post the most scrimmage yards he's collected in nearly a calendar year. In fact, the 97 yards he managed on 16 touches are tied for the fourth-most yards the Bears have given up to the position this season, and his 10-yard rushing score made him only the third tailback to run one in against their fearsome front seven. Now with Jones on injured reserve, Williams gets to be the bell cow. When he served in that role last season, he registered three straight games with at least 113 scrimmage yards and a score – all of which came with Brett Hundley under center. So, although the Jets have been solid defending running backs, the likely volume is too good to ignore. The one thing owners should not ignore, however, is Williams' practice status leading to the contest, as a toe injury has limited him. If he logs a full practice or gets removed from the injury report, all things are go. If he's a game-time decision and plays, weigh the risk versus the rest of your roster. He'd likely grit it out, but waiver-add newcomer Kapri Bibbs might also be a bigger factor than expected just days after joining the team.

Kalen Ballage, MIA vs. JAX

Ballage entered last Sunday's contest with an invisible eight carries for 11 yards, but after a Frank Gore season-ending ankle injury opened the door of opportunity, Ballage and his 4.46-speed answered. A hole opened between the center and right guard and that was it, Ballage went untouched. While Kenyan Drake also offers the same explosive ability, he does so with 25 fewer pounds. A somewhat similarly built back with long speed demolished the tackle-averse Jaguars defense the last time they went on the road, and another could break off some chunk gains when the Dolphins – with playoff hopes diminishing – decides to see what they have in their fourth-round draft pick with tantalizing physical traits.

Elijah McGuire, NYJ vs. GB

It's all about the volume. With no other threat in the Jets' backfield, McGuire has registered at least 17 carries and three catches in consecutive games. And while he has not been a model of efficiency with this work (2.9 YPC), he's managed at least 70 scrimmage yards and a score in each. Meanwhile, the Packers have scored just 17 points in four of their past seven games. Translation: expect a low-scoring, run-heavy game versus a Green Bay defense that's allowed 4.5 YPC to opposing tailbacks.

Dave Williams, JAX at MIA

It's the season of giving, and with Leonard Fournette possibly dealing with a foot injury and the train wreck that is the Jaguars' season looking like that epic scene from The Fugitive, Jacksonville will likely be giving Williams more of a chance. They know what Carlos Hyde is, and he was likely a rental anyways given Fournette's shaky health early this year. T.J. Yeldon is also likely exiting next year when his rookie deal is done. The Jaguars know what these two offer, but what they don't know is if the 6-0, 229-pound Williams can emerge as their No. 2 rusher next year. The seventh-round rookie pick of the Broncos offers the size Tom Coughlin prefers in his running backs and he ran a 4.52 at Arkansas' pro day after notching 10 scores on 127 touches in his final year as a role player in the SEC. After turning five carries into 32 yards last week (6.4 YPC), he likely whet the appetite of a coaching staff desperate to see something positive end this miserable year. Williams' fresh legs pounding a Miami front seven that's allowed the third-most ground yards to opposing running backs and an average of 167.8 scrimmage yards to the position could be the missing link to a desperate (or fearless) title seeker.

John Kelly, LAR at ARI

Here's the book on Kelly: hard to wrap up in a phone booth with excellent contact balance and start/stop ability; angry runner with nice vision and plus burst; natural receiver. The way he runs is reminiscent of a similarly built late-round pick from more than a decade ago who faced a situation that feels familiar. In 2007, the Super Bowl bound Giants lost second-stringer Derrick Ward to an injury in December. In a snowy Week 16 game played on coincidentally the same date as this Sunday's contests, Ahmad Bradshaw, a seventh-round rookie depth back who entered the contest with just six carries, proceeded to rip off 151 yards and a long score on 17 totes. By no means is this projecting Kelly for that kind of day, but with Todd Gurley nursing knee inflammation and the Rams capable of beating up a Cardinals offense dead-last in yards and points, don't be surprised if Kelly steps into a big role in the second half. He's really more of a desperation play for anyone who survived last week with an injury-riddled roster, but with him knowing far more of the offense than newcomer C.J. Anderson, don't be shocked if Sean McVay calls on his fresh legs.

WR

Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs. HOU

Jeffery's last three games playing with Nick Foles dating back to last year's playoffs include 21 targets, 16 catches, 318 yards and three touchdowns. He has at least 160 yards or a score in each and two grabs of at least 50 yards. And in two of those contests, he faced stiff coverage from Aqib Talib (last week) and Xavier Rhodes (NFC Championship). The Texans are fresh off allowing another long-limbed boundary receiver in Robby Anderson to go 11/7/96/1 on them and have struggled mightily of late versus opposing No. 1 wide receivers. In the past four games, they've given up a combined 26 grabs, 492 yards and two scores to an opponents' lead receiver. Jeffery looks primed for another big day, especially since the Texans have only allowed running backs to average 66.4 ground yards per game. Translation: expect the Eagles to be pass heavy.

Robby Anderson, NYJ vs. GB

Missing in action for nearly all of the first 10 games he played in, the real Anderson has finally decided to show up just in time for the fantasy playoffs. The former undrafted receiver who had a mini-breakout in Year 2, including a five-game touchdown streak, has taken a step back amid a season impacted by hamstring and ankle ailments. However, as one of the few starting skill players left standing for Gang Green, Anderson has stepped up the past two weeks, flashing his trademark speed while notching consecutive games with at least 75 yards and a score. After seeing 18 targets in those games (nearly 25 percent of his season total), Anderson is poised to hurt a Packers secondary that itself has often been M.I.A. this year. They're tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to wideouts, so that streak Anderson has started up figures to make it to Week 17.

Mike Williams & Tyrell Williams, LAC vs. BAL

The latest news out of Charger Land is that Keenan Allen is likely to suit up and try fighting through the hip pointer injury that forced him out of last week's game without a catch and opened the door for the younger of the Williamses to dominate. That didn't leave Tyrell, the speedier of the two, out in the cold, however. In fact, while Mike was doing all the scoring, the four-year vet who runs like a gazelle was busy leading the team in targets (12) and posting 71 yards. Both are high-upside, swing-for-the-fences plays, as Tyrell can make one's week with one catch given his ability to get behind a defense, while his younger, slower counterpart has emerged as one of the best jump-ball weapons in the league. Mike is a touchdown maker, with three scores of at least 30 yards on go-up-and-get-it bombs and another six inside the red zone. So, although Allen appears likely to ding one of their upsides a bit – more likely Tyrell than Mike – and the matchup is less than promising, in a one-week season when it's win-or-go-home, these 6-foot-4 skyscrapers offer the upside to capture championships, opponent be damned.

Antonio Callaway, CLE vs. CIN

Fantasy players are often rewarded when a disappointing player who finally starts trending upward gets the chance to play a soft opponent. It takes some of the edge off that bitter pill of starting him. Callaway is a great example this week. The rookie wideout has largely struggled to realize his tremendous potential but his play has improved since Thanksgiving – at least 84 yards or a score in three of four contests, including 62 and a TD against the same pathetic Bengals' defense the Browns will welcome Sunday. Cincinnati has given up the 10th-most yards to opposing wideouts, and that's even after getting the benefit of drawing the lackluster receiving corps of the Ravens, Broncos and Raiders in their past five games.

TE

Evan Engram, NYG at IND

Don't overthink this. Few tight ends offer the big-play ability Engram's blazing 4.42-speed provides, and it's showed in recent weeks. Heading to Indy with a three-game streak with at least 66 yards, including chunk gains of 39 and 54, don't sleep on the Giants' best solution in the passing game for the absence of Odell Beckham Jr. Engram is finally back to full health after an early-season knee injury sapped his potential. He saw 12 targets last week against a Tennessee defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points (PPR scoring) to opposing tight ends. The Colts, meanwhile, have surrendered the most yards to the position (72.6 per game).

Matt LaCosse, DEN at OAK

The fantasy position has grown so desperate for options beyond the top six tight ends that LaCosse, a third-year man with three catches coming into the season, looks palatable after tallying 10 grabs for 133 yards over the last six games. On a Broncos squad desperate for pass catchers to step up, LaCosse does have at least 43 yards or a score in two of his last four games. Of course, he managed just three yards combined in the other two, but let's ignore that and concentrate on the fact that Monday night, in the final game that will decide many Super Bowls, LaCosse has the chance to be a hero going against a Raiders defense that is third in yards allowed and tied for first in touchdowns allowed to tight ends.

Jimmy Graham, GB at NYJ

Like most tight ends, Graham has a rock-bottom floor. Unlike most tight ends, Graham is playing in an offense that has almost no one else to throw to and a Hall of Fame quarterback, so there's room for hope. When Randall Cobb likely sits out with a concussion and with Aaron Jones landed on IR, Aaron Rodgers will have at his disposal Pro Bowler Davante Adams and a slew of rookies -- and Graham, the guy who can help move the sticks for the Packers and perhaps find the end zone. He's done little of both in the season's second half but is just three weeks removed from catching eight balls for 50 yards. That kind of day would be a dream in PPR and passable in standard – still, as with LaCosse, the risk-reward setup is not for the faint of heart.

DOWNGRADE

Jared Goff, LAR at ARI

'Tis obvious, no? The Cardinals are top-10 in yards per game (211.5) and touchdowns (19) allowed through the air and are tied for seventh in sacks (41). Goff, meanwhile, has played like hot garbage in the face of heavy pressure (sacked or hit 26 times) over the past three weeks since the Rams' bye. In that span, he's managed a measly 726 yards at 5.6 YPA with six interceptions and only one score which came against an exploitable Lions secondary. In a game that can be comfortably won with defense and a platoon rushing attack, how can one justify pinning fantasy title hopes on Goff?

Tom Brady, NE vs. BUF

Where's the upshot in playing Brady against a Bills defense giving up the fewest passing yards in the league? Buffalo is one of two defenses to hold "Tom Terrific" out of the end zone entirely this season and since that goose egg Brady has registered just one or no touchdowns in four of six contests, giving him only eight total TD passes in the last seven games. The yards have been there – he's averaged 300.4 in this span – but with the floor presumably lowered against a loaded secondary there's more risk than reward in this one, particularly without Josh Gordon.

Aaron Rodgers, GB at NYJ

The Jets are largely a middle-of-the-road pass defense. There's little they do better or worse than most, except when it comes to an opponent's completion percentage. They've given up the fourth-lowest completion percentage in the league (61.9 percent). Chalk that one up to Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams' leadership and personal tenacity getting the most out of a mediocre secondary. Coincidentally, gimping around on a bad knee most of the season and throwing to a mish-mash of pass catchers besides Davante Adams has led to the second-worst completion rate of Rodgers' career – at 61.8 percent, nearly exactly what the Jets allow. With Aaron Jones (knee) on IR and Randall Cobb likely out with a concussion, Rodgers is still left to depend on a bunch of inexperienced youngsters in addition to the glacially slow Jimmy Graham and Adams. Now he'll do it with a tender groin muscle, too. Expect more of the same struggles that have led to Rodgers tallying just one 300-yard game since the team's Week 7 bye and no three-score performances.

RB

Leonard Fournette, JAX at MIA

Pride, maybe? Yeah, maybe that's what could fuel Fournette to a good game this week. Beyond a competitive pride, it's hard to see what else will get him there. Even in a good matchup against a 31st-ranked Dolphins run defense that was just shredded by Dalvin Cook, the second-year Jaguars workhorse is in too much danger of disappearing. After racking up 80 touches, 358 yards and five touchdowns in the first three contests he played after returning from a persistent hamstring injury, he's followed up a one-game suspension with just 30 combined touches the past two weeks. With a defense that's lacking its usual gusto and Cody Kessler under center scaring absolutely nobody, Fournette is facing an uphill battle against bad game scripts and defenses with all 11 sets of eyes on him. Plus, beyond having to be concerned with his actual performance, there's this tiny little issue of him getting only a single second-half carry in a one-score game last week. So, with the Dolphins fighting desperately for a still attainable wild card spot, don't count on Fournette being the guy to stand in their way -- even if he's actually given the chance to do so.

David Johnson, ARI vs. LAR

Johnson's rushing performance has been slipping for weeks after topping the century mark for the only time this season in a 25-carry effort against the lowly Raiders. In the four weeks since, he's averaged no better than 3.7 YPC and seen that mark trickle down each week. He only saved a 33-yard rushing effort last Sunday by grabbing a season-long reception of 40 yards and managing to plunge into the end zone from one yard out. It was his first touchdown since Week 10. Although he's facing a Rams defense that's been lenient on opposing rushers in recent weeks, this is a "get right" game for a Super Bowl contender that's been playing a bit punch-drunk of late. Johnson's numbers will continue to suffer as a result.

Tevin Coleman, ATL at CAR

Can he be trusted? The Panthers have faced a who's who of running backs this season and have allowed just one – way back in Week 2 – to top the century mark. Coincidentally, and maybe to the detriment of this argument, that man was Coleman, who did it on only 16 carries. But they've also held the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, James Conner, Chris Carson, Nick Chubb, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara all to fewer than 70 rushing yards. Meanwhile, although Coleman is fresh off gashing the Cardinals for 145 yards on 11 carries, he also ran for a pitiful 14 yards on 14 carries between two games within the last month. I must note that his eye-popping performance against Arizona came in a game the Falcons led by 19 at halftime, and he still saw only 11 carries. In fact, Coleman has exceeded 11 carries only once since September and has not had a 20-touch game since he registered exactly that many against the Panthers in their first go-round.

WR

Stefon Diggs, MIN at DET

Diggs has been far from a consistent commodity this season. Six of his 13 games have resulted in fewer than 50 receiving yards while the other seven have topped 75 yards. The numbers are often correlated with his target volume, but even with big targets, he doesn't always produce. He combined for 25 targets against the Bills and Jets and inexplicably posted a combined 50 yards. The anemic 17 yards on 10 targets against Buffalo can be explained by his opponent. Tre'Davious White is having an All-Pro season, and another stinker – three catches for 33 yards versus the Cardinals – gets credited to Patrick Peterson. Now he'll face off with another All-Pro caliber corner in Darius Slay. He missed the first meeting with Detroit due to injury, but after Diggs displayed such a low floor against other top cover men, his owners may be wishing he missed this one as well, just so they were forced to play someone else.

Allen Robinson, CHI at SF

The 49ers lead the league in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. They've given up 22 of them so far, but only one (per Pro Football Focus) has been allowed by revitalized vet Richard Sherman, whom Robinson can anticipate seeing in coverage most often Sunday. For a guy who's reached 80 yards once all season and is fourth on his team in touchdown receptions, don't be fooled by the name brand and mirage matchup.

Golden Tate, PHI vs. HOU

Not sure how one can feel good about Tate heading into a must-win situation. Sure, he caught all five of his targets from Nick Foles last week, but he still has just 50 yards total the past two games and only one productive effort out of six in an Eagles uniform. While he may be a veteran with a history for making splash plays after the catch, Tate is still highly likely to be Foles' third look at best behind Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz, with whom he has a strong rapport. With his upside being a trip to the end zone, the safe bet is to bench Philly's new guy against a Houston defense that's allowed the sixth fewest touchdown receptions to wideouts.