Exploiting the Matchups: Week 17 Start/Sit and Streamers

Good luck to everyone who has championship matchups this week! It looks like weather won't be much of a factor this time around, with last week's mess followed by unseasonably warm weather for the Midwest and East Coast this weekend. Even the game in Green Bay is expected to be sunny with not much wind and temperatures in the 20s or 30s. Games played in New England, New York and Philadelphia are expected to have similarly calm weather, and with potential for temperatures to reach the 50s.

We do have some level of concern about starters being rested on teams with little to play for, but that mostly seems to apply to the Thursday game and the Titans did us the favor of listing their key guys as 'doubtful' or 'out'. Jags coach Doug Pederson, on the other hand, said he'll play everyone who is able to play, hoping to secure a 9-8 season rather than sneaking in at 8-9 with a loss to the Texans followed by a win over the Titans (there's also a highly unlikely scenario in which the reverse happens and the Jags sneak in as a wild card). With all that in mind, it's still possible Pederson plays some guys less than usual or has a quick hook with his stars if the game isn't close.

Other major notes this week include Colt McCoy returning from concussion protocol to take back Arizona's starting job and Derek Carr being benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham even though the Raiders technically are still alive in the playoff hunt (albeit with realistic odds below 1 percent). The Carr benching makes San Francisco a huge favorite over Las Vegas and leaves the Raiders as one of 11 teams with an implied total of 19 points or lower based on Week 17 betting lines. In other words, it might be another low-scoring week by modern standards even though weather isn't likely to be a factor.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 

Quarterbacks 👍

Jared Goff (vs. CHI) — 52% started

Start Over — Geno Smith (vs. NYJ), Kirk Cousins (at GB), Tom Brady (at CAR)

Goff is ninth among QBs in cumulative scoring and 13th on a per-game basis, with a strong start and strong finish helping him overcome an unproductive mid-season stretch that saw the Lions deal with a slew of injuries to pass catchers (in addition to trading away T.J. Hockenson). They're not the only NFC North team that lost key pieces, and Sunday's opponent has been particularly vulnerable on defense since trading away LB Roquan Smith and EDGE Robert Quinn earlier this fall. Playing indoors and against a weak opponent, the Lions have the No. 1 implied total (29) for Week 17 in a game with the largest over/under (52). Look for Goff to top 20 fantasy points for a fourth time in five weeks.

Other Good Matchups: Dak Prescott (vs. TEN), Justin Fields (at DET), Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIN), Brock Purdy (at LV), Colt McCoy (at ATL), Davis Mills (vs. JAX)

Running Backs 👍

Isiah Pacheco (vs. DEN) — 60% started

Start Over — Devin Singletary (at CIN), J.K. Dobbins (vs. PIT)

While Jerick McKinnon has been far more productive in recent weeks thanks to his receiving work, Pacheco is still getting most of KC's carries and has 13 or more in seven straight games (with at least 59 rushing yards in each contest). He should top those numbers again this week, perhaps adding a TD, with the Chiefs favored by 12.5 points over a Broncos team that ranks fourth in pass-defense DVOA and 22nd in run-defense DVOA. Even with the recent lull in fantasy production, it'd be wise to start the Chiefs' rookie over other timeshare backs who project to be in closer and/or lower-scoring contests.

Jamaal Williams (vs. CHI) — 42% started

Start Over — Latavius Murray (at KC), Zonovan Knight (at SEA), Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. ARZ)

Williams has perhaps gone from overvalued to undervalued, hitting the type of cold stretch that's all but inevitable for such a TD-dependent player. The good news, as mentioned above, is that the Lions have the largest implied total of Week 17 against a Bears defense that Williams put up 59 yards and a TD against Week 10. While other backs offer more upside, especially in PPR leagues, Williams at least is back on the map as a low-end RB2 or FLEX despite failing to score a TD (or reach 40 yards) in each of his past three games.

Note:  I'm also a big fan of Atlanta's Tyler Allgeier this week (check out Backfield Breakdown below to see how his role expanded in the loss to Baltimore last weekend).

Other Good Matchups: Ezekiel Elliott (vs. TEN), D'Andre Swift & Jamaal Williams (vs. CHI), Tyler Allgeier (vs. ARZ), Brian Robinson (vs. CLE), Michael Carter (at SEA), Joshua Kelley (vs. LAR)

Wide Receivers 👍

Brandon Aiyuk (at LV) — 54% started

Start Over — Gabe Davis (at CIN), DJ Moore (at TB), Michael Pittman (at NYG)

Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have been the stars with Deebo Samuel (knee) sidelined and Brock Purdy under center. Not that we should expect that to change, but the Raiders might be bad enough to accommodate three big games with Aiyuk getting in on the fun. He caught five of seven targets for 81 yards against Washington last week and needs only 145 yards over the final two weeks against two bad defenses to reach 1,000 for the first time. Even if the 49ers don't care about that, they'd be wise to feed their temporary No. 1 receiver (assuming Samuel is out again) against a defense ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass and 24th in NY/A allowed (6.6).

Allen Lazard (vs. MIN) — 32% started

Start Over — Donovan Peoples-Jones (at WAS), Darius Slayton (vs. IND), Adam Thielen (at GB)

It's been almost two months since Lazard reached 70 yards or scored a touchdown, while rookie Christian Watson has scored eight times (including one rush) in the same six-game stretch despite seeing only four more targets (41-37) than the veteran. This could be a big week for either of them, or perhaps even Romeo Doubs, depending on how things play out with the hip injury that held Watson out of the second half on Christmas Day against Miami. 

With Watson absent for half of the game, Lazard tied his season high of 11 targets and Doubs also saw six looks while playing more than 80 percent of snaps after halftime. Watson is still the one to start if he plays, but if he doesn't it'll mainly be Lazard, Doubs and Randall Cobb taking aim at a Minnesota defense that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 24th in DVOA against the pass.

Other Good Matchups: Amon-Ra St. Brown & DJ Chark (vs. CHI), Drake London (vs. ARZ), Jakobi Meyers (vs. MIA), Marquise Brown (at ATL), Richie James (vs. IND) Romeo Doubs & Randall Cobb (vs. MIN)

Tight Ends 👍

Cole Kmet (at DET)— % started

Start Over — Darren Waller (vs. SF), Gerald Everett (vs. LAR), Greg Dulcich (at KC)

As much as I've never been a fan of his, Kmet is at the very least a competent player — and one with three or more catches for 27 or more yards in seven straight games, averaging 5.9 targets in that stretch. He's the de facto No. 1 receiver with WRs Darnell Mooney (ankle) and now Chase Claypool (knee) sidelined, leading all TEs over the past seven games with 25.8 percent target share (16th among all players for Weeks 9-16). Kmet should see at least a handful of looks this Sunday, playing indoors against a Detroit defense that's given up the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends, including Kmet's career-best 4-74-2 receiving line back in Week 10.

Other Good Matchups: Evan Engram (at HOU), Tyler Conklin (at SEA)

Sit/Downgrade 

Quarterbacks 👎

Geno Smith (vs. NYJ) — 44% started

Start Instead — Trevor Lawrence (at HOU), Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIN)

I don't agree with the Jets being two-point favorites here, even with Mike White back in action, but there's no question their defense is difficult to pass on. Gang Green ranks fifth in NY/A allowed (5.5), sixth in DVOA against the pass and 10th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. In fact, the only quarterbacks to reach 20 points against the Jets this season are Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen — and even they have merely posted scores right around their season averages. 

Smith isn't of that caliber, of course, and he's looked oddly panicky the past few weeks for someone who played such calm, efficient football for the first two-thirds of the season. Maybe he picks it back up with Tyler Lockett potentially returning from a hand injury and the Seahawks getting a nice homefield/travel advantage, but a matchup with this Jets defense is challenging nonetheless. Expect a mediocre game in the range of 14-18 fantasy points.

Other Tough Matchups: Kirk Cousins (at GB), Teddy Bridgewater (at NE), Jarrett Stidham (vs. LV), Andy Dalton (vs. PHI), Malik Willis (vs. DAL)

Running Backs 👎

Devin Singletary (at CIN) — 49% started

Start Instead — David Montgomery (at DET), Leonard Fournette (vs. CAR), Cam Akers (at LAC)

Coming off his best rushing game (12-106-1) and second-best fantasy score (20.5 PPR points) of the season, Singletary nonetheless comes with significant risk now that James Cook (who also had a big game last week) is established as an important part of the Buffalo offense. And while his snap shares did tick back up to 60 and 58 percent the past two weeks, Singletary still isn't in his range from Weeks 6-12 when he handled 72-to-86 percent in each game. 

The new, lower floor was spotted three weeks ago against the Jets (43 yards, no TD) and may show up again this Monday against a Bengals defense that's given up the eighth fewest fantasy points to RBs while ranking 14th in run-defense DVOA and ninth in YPC allowed (4.2). There's also the matter of both teams in the Monday night game being pass-first (and second) in terms of philosophy/mentality, meaning we're highly unlikely to see a repeat of last week's workload split between QB Josh Allen and the running backs from a bad-weather game against a bad Chicago defense.

Latavius Murray (at KC) — 35% started

Start Instead — Tyler Allgeier (vs. ARZ), Raheem Mostert (at NE), Brian Robinson (vs. CLE)

The Chiefs don't defend the run especially well, but this matchup brings clear danger of what happened to Murray against the same team three weeks ago and then again this past Sunday against the Rams. He took eight carries for 32 yards and eight carries for 34 yards in those two games where the Broncos fell behind big early, sandwiched around a 24-130-1 rushing line in a win over Arizona. You can guess which result is more likely with the Broncos massive underdogs this week... even more so now that Chase Edmonds (42 percent) snap share is back from IR to handle some of Denver's carries and probably most of the RB targets.

Other Tough Matchups: Kenneth Walker (vs. NYJ), Hassan Haskins (vs. DAL), Kareem Hunt (at WAS), Samaje Perine (vs. BUF)

Wide Receivers 👎

Terry McLaurin (vs. CLE) — 65% started

Start Instead — Garrett Wilson (at SEA), Mike Williams (vs. LAR), Amari Cooper (at WAS)

I'm not sure how much of McLaurin's midseason uptick in production was about the switch from Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke vs. how much it was about OC Scott Turner making more of an effort to get McLaurin the ball. Maybe we find out these next couple weeks, but I'm definitely nervous given that he's seen only 15.7 percent of the Wentz targets this season while Curtis Samuel has accounted for 21.9 percent. That stat is part of why both Wentz and Turner should be fired this offseason, wild-card spot or not. 

As for this week, Turner likely will feature RB Brian Robinson against a Browns team ranked 15th in pass-defense DVOA and 30th in run-defense DVOA. Only seven teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to WRs, in part because opponents find it easier to run on Cleveland's banged-up LB corps and subpar interior D-line. That's the case even more so now that top corner Denzel Ward is playing well again, allowing only 218 yards into his coverage (31.1 per game, per PFF) in seven games since he missed Weeks 6-9 with a concussion. Prior to his absence, Ward gave up 293 yards in five games (59.6 yards per), which was more than he'd allowed over the final 13 games of last season.

Adam Thielen (at GB) — 47% started

Start Instead — Gabe Davis (at CIN), DJ Moore (at TB), Zay Jones (at HOU)

Thielen has dropped from Option B to Option C, as detailed in Target Breakdown earlier this week, and now he'll face a Packers defense that presents a challenge even if top corner Jaire Alexander shadows Justin Jefferson. The Packers also have Rasul Douglas (graded 27th among CBs by PFF) and a surprise breakout player in 25-year-old slot corner/return specialist Keisean Nixon. No wonder they've given up the sixth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, ranking eighth in pass-defense DVOA but dead last in run-defense DVOA. 

Other Tough Matchups: Davante Adams & Mack Hollins (vs. SF);DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett & Marquise Goodwin (vs. NYJ); Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed (vs. PHI), Isaiah McKenzie (at CIN)

Tight Ends 👎

Darren Waller (at SF) — 40% started

Start Instead — David Njoku (at WAS), Cole Kmet (at DET), Dallas Goedert (vs. NO)

Whatever his faults, Derek Carr is almost certainly a lot better than Jarrett Stidham, a 2019 fourth-round pick who has two TDs and four INTs on 61 career pass attempts. And that's only the third problem for Waller, who played only 49 and 40 percent of snaps his first two games back from IR and now faces a dominant Niners defense with arguably the best middle-of-the-field coverage in the league thanks to LBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga. Waller's success with his limited playing time the past two weeks might seem to beg for more work over the final two games, but we can't assume that's the case when the Raiders have already sent a strong signal that they're trying to evaluate young talent and regroup for next year.

Other Tough Matchups: Pat Freiermuth (at BAL), Juwan Johnson (at PHI)

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (40-66 percent rostered)

QB Gardner Minshew (vs. NO)

QB Daniel Jones (vs. IND)

QB Brock Purdy (at LV)

RB Tyler Allgeier (vs. ARZ)

RB Zack Moss (at NYG)

RB James Cook (at CIN)

RB Hassan Haskins (vs. DAL)

WR Zay Jones (at HOU)

WR DJ Chark (vs. CHI)

TE Noah Fant (vs. NYJ)

K Graham Gano (vs. IND)

D/ST Giants (vs. IND)

For Medium-depth Leagues (16-39 percent rostered)

QB Mike White (at SEA)

RB Chuba Hubbard (at TB)

RB Khalil Herbert (at DET)

RB Kenneth Gainwell (vs. NO)

WR Jahan Dotson (vs. CLE)

WR Richie James (vs. IND)

TE Tyler Conklin (at SEA)

K Jake Elliott (vs. NO)

D/ST Browns (at WAS)

For Deep Leagues (0-15 percent rostered)

QB Carson Wentz (vs. CLE)

RB Joshua Kelley (vs. LAR)

RB JaMycal Hasty (at HOU)

WR Rashid Shaheed (at PHI)

WR Greg Dortch (at ATL)

WR Chris Moore (vs. JAX)

WR Isaiah Hodgins (vs. IND)

TE Daniel Bellinger (vs. IND)

K Riley Patterson (at HOU)

D/ST Lions (vs. CHI)