Exploiting the Matchups: Week 5 Start/Sit

You can't play defense, and you can't predict injuries.

Sometimes, no matter how well you choose your lineup, no matter how clearly you project the best matchups, you still lose. The randomness kicks in and kicks your butt.

That was the prevailing theme of my Week 4, which included six losses when my team either laid an egg due largely to multiple injuries (get well soon, Leonard Fournette, Sammy Watkins and O.J. Howard) or in which I faced the highest- or second-highest-scoring team when I was second or third. In fact, I lost one matchup where I finished third in scoring (by a longshot) despite losing Fournette and Howard early and Will Fuller when he still had plenty more to offer.

These things are bound to happen. I had three undefeated teams fall because of this. And yet, my Week 4 was BY FAR the best week I've had for fantasy. Sometimes it only takes winning that one league to make your week, and that was exactly what happened to me in several others happened to my opponent in my favorite league – my Vampire league.

Last Friday I blogged about how Jared Goff positioned my Vampire to eat. Playing the top ranked team, my Count Chocula squad went off, racking up the highest single-week score of the season while my opponent fell just a tad short with the week's third-best score. The result: Count Chocula is now 2-2 and has stolen Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara, with the Todd Gurley team on tap for an epic showdown.

So, don't ever forget to look at the silver lining. It's there in every week if you stay active and make the decisions you feel best help your team win the next matchup. I won just two leagues last week, but it still was one of the better fantasy experiences I've enjoyed in a long time.

Just keep playing. After all, I robbed Kamara off the No. 1 team, and that owner is now tasked with trying to adjust and stay on top without his best player. Things happen pretty fast, but you can always adjust and compete. Now let's get on to the flex options I may use in the week I steal Gurley!

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier -- or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Blake Bortles, JAX at KC

Bortles will again be without Leonard Fournette, which means the brunt of the chain-moving and finishing in the red zone will fall on him. Versus the Chiefs, this is the ideal setup for a streaming quarterback. In two of his last three contests, Bortles has thrown it for at least 376 yards with multiple touchdowns. Kansas City and one of the league's friendliest secondaries will be a welcome sight.

Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR

Wilson has failed to reach 225 yards since he fell just shy of 300 in Week 1, but he played two of those games without Doug Baldwin. And what's more, he's yet to face an opponent that's been even remotely explosive offensively. The Rams will force Wilson to air it out, and without cornerback Aqib Talib (ankle) on the boundary, his path to production is far less impeded – just look at the 400-plus yards and three touchdowns Kirk Cousins threw last week against this defense. Additionally, against the great interior pass rush led by Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, Wilson may finally pull his ace out by producing chunk gains with his legs.

Alex Smith, WAS at NO

Smith has yet to truly air it out in a Redskins uniform, but the Saints are going to challenge him to do so. New Orleans' offense is averaging 34.3 points per game, while its defense is allowing opposing passers to go on no-strings-attached shopping sprees through their secondary. They've given up a 74.6 percent completion percentage, 9.64 YPA and a friendly 11:1 TD:INT. Although Smith's weapons may not be remotely close to the level of the Tampa Bay and Atlanta offenses that shredded New Orleans, he boasts a slightly more unique blend of targets with mismatch nightmares Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson. Also, his ability to combine pinpoint passing with deft scrambling ability will create a new problem for a defense that's full of them.

Derek Carr, OAK at LAC

He has not been racking up touchdowns or the wins, so it's mostly flown under the radar that Carr is having a bounce-back season. The Raiders' precision passer sits fourth in yards (343.3 per game) and completion percentage (71.0) and is seventh in yards per attempt with easily a career-best 8.12 YPA. Carr has piled up 782 yards the last two weeks, and that volume was building off a remarkable performance versus Denver in which he completed 29 of 32 attempts (90.6 percent). With a meeting on tap against a Chargers defense that has given up at least 245 passing yards in every game (Josh Allen set the floor) and just allowed C.J. Beathard to pitch it for 298 yards and two scores, Carr is poised to keep the big numbers coming.

Josh Rosen, ARZ at SF

Let's go deep! Well, I mean two-quarterback-league deep. Rosen is a pinpoint passer who managed to play a clean game versus a Seattle defense that had generated seven interceptions in its first three outings. Rosen didn't even take more than one early sack and made Chad Williams look good on a couple of occasions. Although he has a group of wildly unproven weapons outside of Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, Rosen has the arm talent to make chicken salad out of, well, you know. He won't set the world on fire with Mike McCoy's frustratingly conservative play-calling, but facing a 49ers defense that's allowed multiple passing scores in every game, including three TDs in three straight, Rosen offers a good floor in two-quarterback and superflex formats.

RB

Aaron Jones, GB at DET

If not for Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery clouding Jones' path to touches, he'd be a top-10 lock at the running back position this week. On just 19 touches, Jones has three gains of at least 17 yards, is averaging 6.8 yards per touch and has the only touchdown by a Packers tailback. His special blend of vision, balance and burst should be featured early and often against a Lions defense that's given up an average of 208.8 scrimmage yards per game and 6.1 YPC to opposing running backs.

Derrick Henry, TEN at BUF

It's "put up or shut up" time for Mr. Henry. Unless Buffalo pulls a second shocker and storms out to a big lead like they did two weeks ago in Minnesota, Henry should bust loose on the ground. He has two games with 18 carries, but he got lost a little – as expected – versus the Eagles in a contest that forced Tennessee to rely on the precision passing of Marcus Mariota. That shouldn't be the case this week against a Bills team that has faced at least a two-touchdown deficit for all but 38 seconds of the second halves of their three losses. In those contests tailbacks piled up 443 scrimmage yards and five total rushing touchdowns.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. OAK

In the last three weeks, the Raiders have given up gains of 53, 74, 63 and 41 yards (the latter three going for touchdowns) to three players that combined the ability to cut sharply and burst upfield while leaving defenders grabbing at air. Yes, one of those was wide receiver Albert Wilson, but it was on a jet sweep. And yes, that means a monster day could be coming from Melvin Gordon, too. But Ekeler is the speedier of the two tailbacks and a perpetual big play waiting to happen as both a runner and receiver. Expect the Chargers to make a concerted effort to get him the ball in space and do their best to replicate some of the back-breaking home runs Oakland has allowed recently.

Alfred Blue, HOU vs. DAL

This is intended mostly to get Blue on the radar. Lamar Miller has a fairly decisive hold of the Texans backfield when healthy, but he missed the fourth quarter and overtime in last week's win versus Indianapolis and has been limited at practice so far this week with what's being called a chest injury. If it turns out to be significant enough to limit or sideline him this week, Blue has notable upside. Deshaun Watson will steer a high-powered offense against a Cowboys D that's allowed at least 95 scrimmage yards or a touchdown to a tailback in every game. Moreover, Blue has a history of producing when given a significant workload. In 13 career games with at least 16 carries (including playoffs), the big veteran back has produced six touchdowns and six efforts with at least 99 rushing yards, while failing to register a minimum of 75 scrimmage yards in just two of those.

Corey Grant, JAX at KC

In the last two weeks alone, the Chiefs have allowed four different tailbacks to rush for at least 67 yards, with three finding paydirt and the group collectively averaging 6.7 YPC. Their front seven simply does not fill running lanes fast enough or wrap up consistently when they do. And while this means a second straight big week could be coming for T.J. Yeldon, it also means Grant could generate flex-worthy numbers. Primarily a deep-league and PPR consideration, Grant offers a speedy complement out of the backfield and a receiving threat that Jacksonville may need this week more than they have previously, as they've yet to face a deficit of more than a field goal.

WR

Jamison Crowder, WAS at NO

Not only is Crowder the healthiest of Washington's top three wideouts, but he's also the one most likely to see either P.J. Williams or Ken Crawley in coverage while Marshon Lattimore remains on the perimeter checking either Paul Richardson (shoulder) or Josh Doctson (heel). With Williams and Crawley both acting like turnstiles in coverage (seriously, they've allowed a combined seven TDs to wideouts), Crowder should build off his latest performance before the Redskins' bye week (4/39/1) and continue the trend of quick-twitch, technically sound route runners to torch these two (Calvin Ridley and Sterling Shepard combined for 17 catches, 223 yards and four TDs the last two weeks).

Mohamed Sanu, ATL at PIT

Can you say shootout? A mostly decimated Falcons back seven has been a major culprit in the defense allowing at least 335 yards and three touchdowns passing to three straight quarterbacks. When things are no different versus Ben Roethlisberger and Co., expect one of the weekend's top duels to take place. Matt Ryan has averaged 355.0 yards during this stretch while tossing 10 touchdowns. Calvin Ridley's emergence has only further served to make defenses forget about Sanu, who has quietly produced at least 111 yards or a score in consecutive games while seeing 16 targets. His dependability and play strength will be counted on again in possibly the highest-scoring game of Week 5.

Keelan Cole & Dede Westbrook, JAX at KC

A quiet couple of weeks for Cole really should be of no concern. Versus the Titans, he led the team with nine targets, but the offense struggled against one of the league's up-and-coming defenses, which ranks sixth in points allowed (18.3) and pass yards allowed (242.8) per game. Cole's talent is not in question, as he displayed it in a masterful Week 2 performance versus New England and in leading the team in receiving as an undrafted rookie last year. Westbrook is certainly not far behind him in ability, however, and is coming off career highs in yards (130) and targets (13). While Donte Moncrief is also in the mix to steal some looks, it's this explosive duo that figures to benefit most from a Chiefs defense that has allowed 343.0 passing yards per game.

Taywan Taylor, TEN at BUF

Taylor represents a quality floor after turning nine targets into seven grabs and 77 yards in Tennessee's first game minus the scorned Rishard Matthews. As the now clear Robin to Corey Davis' Batman, Taylor should see little to no attention from metrics darling Tre'Davious White, who has limited many No. 1 wide receivers while No. 2's facing Buffalo have gone for at least 80 yards or a score in every contest.

TE

Ricky Seals-Jones, ARZ at SF

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The tight end position was absolutely decimated with injuries in the first quarter of the season, so with a myriad of options lost to injury – and Trey Burton and Cameron Brate on bye – Seals-Jones is an attractive option despite the fact that he has just 123 yards through four games. The focus should instead be on the fact that 87 of those and his only touchdown have come in the last two weeks with Seals-Jones presenting one of the few field-stretching options for the Cardinals. With three grabs of at least 21 yards, he's a high-upside play versus a 49ers defense that has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game.

Tyler Kroft, CIN vs. MIA

Kroft, a towering target at 6-6, proved himself to be a more than adequate red zone weapon last year when he stepped in for an injured Tyler Eifert and provided seven scores. So although he's a bit boom-or-bust, with Eifert out for the year again, Kroft will slide in to start against a Miami defense that's fared well enough against known products for whom they gameplanned, like Rob Gronkowski and Jared Cook, but allowed the likes of no-name tight ends Luke Stocker, Chris Herndon and Eric Tomlinson to tally a combined 91 yards in Weeks 1 and 2.

DOWNGRADE

Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. JAX

Mahomes looked mortal for three quarters in Denver. The Jaguars' relentless pass rush and sticky secondary will prove that he is when he faces them short-handed with Sammy Watkins battling a hammy issue. Look for the Chiefs to employ heavy doses of Kareem Hunt in an effort to save their susceptible defense from getting the offense back into a double-digit, fourth-quarter deficit. If you have Mahomes, you're likely starting him, but for daily fantasy action, it's best to look elsewhere.

Marcus Mariota, TEN at BUF

Let's not overreact too strongly to Mariota's terrific performance against a good Philadelphia defense. While the Eagles' front four can disrupt a backfield as well as anyone's, their secondary is still a major work in progress, and it will have some rough weeks. Buffalo's secondary, however, is their biggest strength led by Tre'Davious White and Jordan Poyer. Combined with more disguised blitzes the past couple games, the Bills pass defense has greatly stepped up from a poor start. After giving up three passing scores in the first two games, Buffalo proceeded to limit Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers to a touchdown apiece while picking off each once – and this while the pair combined for 95 attempts and each fell shy of 300 yards. Those improvements coupled with the homefield energy should help Buffalo bring Mariota back down to Earth.

Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. DAL

This equation is quite simple. The Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes, and Watson has a terrible offensive line and holds the ball too long. Will Fuller may be active but after leaving last week with his hamstring issue popping back up, he's certainly less than 100 percent. It didn't impact Watson's numbers, in large part because Fuller caught a touchdown before exiting and the Colts were unprepared for the Keke Coutee emergence. With some tape on the rookie, the Cowboys won't suffer the same fate. They'll be prepared to defend the limited weapons Houston possesses, including a marquee matchup of DeAndre Hopkins versus Byron Jones. All these factors could equal a frustrating night for Watson.

RB

Dalvin Cook, MIN at PHI

This really shouldn't require much explanation. Before he can be trusted, Cook needs to prove he's fully healthy or at least can be effective despite his injured hamstring. That he's also facing the Eagles' top-ranked run defense – one that's giving up an average of just 40 rushing yards per game to opposing tailbacks – is all the more reason to take a wait-and-see approach with the Vikings' star.

Carlos Hyde, CLE vs. BAL

Only three defenses have allowed fewer scrimmage yards to opposing running backs than the Ravens, who have limited tailbacks to 88.0 yards per contest at just 3.9 yards per touch. And this stinginess is not for a lack of talent in their opponents. So far, they've faced a healthy LeSean McCoy, Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard, Royce Freeman and James Conner, with only Freeman finding the end zone. For Hyde, who's averaged just 3.4 YPC and been a strong producer because of sheer volume, his fantasy value could be tied to finding the end zone in a tough matchup that almost certainly will see him cede extra carries to Nick Chubb after the rookie's dynamic 105-yard effort last week on only three totes.

Adrian Peterson, WAS at NO

Peterson would no doubt love nothing more than to stick it to the team that didn't give him what he believed to be a fair shot last year, but he faces a stiff challenge to do so. The strength of the Saints defense this season has been in its front seven, which has limited opposing tailbacks to a measly 3.0 YPC. In the last three weeks they've held talented runners in Saquon Barkley, Tevin Coleman and Carlos Hyde to a combined 120 yards on 41 carries, so unless Peterson gets the chance at a one-yard touchdown like Hyde and Barkley did, his return to New Orleans could be underwhelming – especially on a sprained ankle.

WR

Tyreek Hill, KC vs. JAX

Hill has been quiet the last couple weeks with exactly 56 scrimmage yards in each and no scores, and his production versus Denver is particularly troubling, as he saw 13 targets and had nine catches to generate that disappointing output. With Sammy Watkins fighting a hamstring injury and the duo of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye on the other side for a loaded Jaguars defense, it could be more of the same for one of the game's most dynamic weapons.

Devin Funchess, CAR vs. NYG

Funchess may not be a top-notch wideout, but he's definitely in the high-end WR3 discussion and is coming off consecutive games with at least 77 yards or a score. Plus, he'll be fresh coming off the early bye week. Despite the positives, he faces an uphill battle for flex-worthy numbers. The Giants have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and have limited DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas to a combined 133 yards on 14 targets over their last two outings.

A.J. Green, CIN vs. MIA

Xavien Howard and Minkah Fitzpatrick have quietly allowed less than a 50 percent catch rate on the 36 targets they've faced (per Pro Football Focus), and the duo is emerging as one of the top cornerback tandems in the league. While slot receivers like Jordy Nelson and Quincy Enunwa have had good days against the Dolphins secondary, No. 1 outside wideouts have struggled versus the sticky coverage of Howard and Fitzpatrick. Corey Davis and Amari Cooper combined for just 79 yards on 18 targets. Meanwhile, Green has been relatively touchdown-dependent so far. Granted he's scored five in four games, though he's yet to post a 100-yard day and trails Tyler Boyd in targets, catches and yards. If he fails to find the end zone this week, he could be in for a disappointing day versus the up-and-coming Dolphins corners.

TE

Travis Kelce, KC vs. JAX

Kelce has racked up at least 114 yards or a score in his last three outings after a silent Week 1, garnering double-digit targets in each contest and tallying three total TDs. He's established himself as the undisputed No. 1 tight end in the league and should remain such as long as Rob Gronkowski isn't fully healthy (ankle) and Zach Ertz is not catching touchdowns. There's absolutely zero chance a Kelce owner is not starting him this week. Of course, that does not ensure that he'll be his usually productive self. Kelce was held to six yards on six targets in Week 1, and he'll face the same Jaguars defense that held a healthy Gronk to 15 yards on four looks in Week 2 despite the Patriots losing by multiple scores from start to finish. This is not really a "don't start Kelce or adjust your lineup for higher upside elsewhere" type of downgrade. This says not to pay the sticker price in daily fantasy cash games when there are high-upside, inexpensive options that can be found.