Exploiting the Matchups: Week 7 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Updated on October 19, 2023 1:51PM EST

I'm not really one to complain about injuries and pretend it's some interesting or new thing when we inevitably get a multi-week stretch with a bunch of injuries that impact fantasy. This season actually has been better than most in terms of the season-ending stuff like ACL and Achilles' tears, though you might feel otherwise if you drafted Nick Chubb, Aaron Rodgers and Mike Williams.

The thinned-out player pool this week has more to do with six teams being on bye, which is augmented by injury absences as well as value dips due to teammate injuries. As the writer of a matchups column, I've sometimes wondered about the general framework for thinking about matchups.

Does DJ Moore have a good matchup this week because he's facing a middling Raiders defense with a weak secondary? You could make the argument, but it doesn't feel right to me even if it's in accordance with someone's technical definition of 'matchup'. A broader outlook shows Moore being less valuable than usual even if the opponent is weak, as he'll be catching passes from undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent. Not that Justin Fields (hand) is any Joe Montana, but he's almost certainly better than his backup and probably by a sizable margin.

So then... Do I list Moore as a matchup 'downgrade' this week? To me, that also doesn't quite feel right. His value is down, but it's due to team context rather than the matchup. I also don't think I'm really helping readers if I use article space to point out super-obvious stuff like a starting QB injury being bad news for his receivers (I guess that's kind of what I'm doing no... whatever).

My general approach has been to focus on aspects of the player's opponent that make the matchup favorable or unfavorable, whilst also weaving in some of the other stuff that might come into play (teammate injuries, role changes, weather, etc.) and make a guy more/less likely than usual to have a strong fantasy performance. That's the approach I'm sticking with this week, even though most of us are in situations where we'll just have to start whoever is healthy, playing and usually gets decent volume.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Geno Smith (vs. ARI) — 40% started

Start Over — Brock Purdy (at MIN), Kirk Cousins (vs. SF), Trevor Lawrence (at NO)

Smith has been better in real life than for fantasy this year, with only five touchdowns and 42 rushing yards through five games in an offense that's seen Kenneth Walker score six of the 11 touchdowns (all 11 coming in the red zone). A home game against the Cardinals should work out well for both Smith and Walker, as Arizona has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to QBs and third most to RBs while yielding the second most yards per drive (37). It's a bad defense in the first place and likely will be missing starting defensive backs Jalen Thompson (hamstring) and Antonio Hamilton (hamstring) this week, with even a potential Budda Baker (hamstring) return unlikely to make much difference.

Other Good Matchups: Lamar Jackson (vs. DET), Daniel Jones (neck, vs. WAS)

Running Backs 👍

Brian Robinson (at NYG) — 70% started

Start Over — Alexander Mattison (vs. SF), James Cook (at NE), Jerome Ford (at IND)

The Giants have allowed at least 100 yards to running backs every week this season, equating to the third most yards overall (796) and fourth most per carry (5.1). That probably shouldn't be the case given how much they've invested in the D-line trio of Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams and A'Shawn Robinson, but the trend is strong enough that we can't ignore it. (A'Shawn) Robinson barely plays at this point, just nine snaps the past two games, and Williams has yet to record a tackle for loss and is averaging his fewest tackles per game (3.0) since 2018.

It all sets up nicely for (Brian) Robinson, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Commanders run more than usual given that Sam Howell has struggled against blitzes (5.5 net yards per dropback, 27th) and is facing a defense with the fourth highest blitz rate (38.1 percent). I wouldn't worry too much about Robinson's lack of carries the past two weeks, as the loss to Chicago featured extreme negative game script and the win over Atlanta saw the Commanders run only 50 plays. He should rebound this week with at least a dozen carries and solid efficiency.

D'Onta Foreman (vs. LV) — 22% started

Start Over — Gus Edwards (vs. DET), Jaylen Warren (at LAR), Ezekiel Elliott (vs. BUF)

With Roschon Johnson (concussion) missing another practice Wednesday, it increasingly appears likely Foreman will get another shot as Chicago's lead runner, after taking 15 carries for 65 yards on 60 percent snap share in the 19-13 loss to Minnesota last week. And as much as Tyson Bagent threatens to hold the entire offense back, Foreman should see the ball early and often against a Raiders defense that's given up the 13th most fantasy points to RBs (23.1 PPR per game) and ninth most yards per carry (4.3) despite facing a soft schedule of backs so far. The Raiders have played Denver, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles (without Austin Ekeler), Green Bay (without Aaron Jones) and New England.

Other Good Matchups: Kenneth Walker (vs. ARI), Isiah Pacheco (vs. LAC), Aaron Jones (hamstring, at DEN), Jaleel McLaughlin (vs. GB), Latavius Murray (at NE)

Wide Receivers 👍

Zay Flowers (vs. DET) — 56% started

Start Over — Marquise Brown (at SEA), Gabe Davis (at NE), Jakobi Meyers (at CHI)

Flowers has at least four targets and 50 total yards each week this season and has consistently handled a near-every-down role while Baltimore's other WRs have often rotated. He and Mark Andrews are the far-and-away top options for Lamar Jackson, who should throw more passes than usual against a Lions team that's put up a ton of points and been excellent at stopping the run. Detroit also has done solid work against the pass, but coverage over the middle has been a weak point and Flowers is used all over the field (30 percent slot rate, 43 percent of targets over the middle - per PFF).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 16% started

Start Over — Elijah Moore (at IND), Jameson Williams (at BAL), Kadarius Toney (vs. LAC)

The rookie finally had an efficient receiving line last week against Cincinnati — 4-48-0 on five targets — and now faces an Arizona defense that's among the worst in the league. This also looks like an excellent individual-level matchup, with Cardinals slot guardian Antonio Hamilton (groin) making an early exit Week 6 and now missing practice leading up to the Week 7 game*. JSN has taken 64.7 percent of his snaps from the slot this year, and he's the healthiest Seattle receiver this week with both DK Metcalf (hip) and Tyler Lockett (hamstring) on the injury report.

*S Jalen Thompson opened the year as Arizona's slot guy, but he missed Week 6 with a hamstring injury and also missed practice Wednesday/Thursday.

Other Good Matchups: Brandon Aiyuk (at MIN), DeVonta Smith (vs. MIA), Tyler Lockett (vs. ARI), Romeo Doubs (at DEN), Tutu Atwell (vs. PIT)

Tight Ends 👍

Luke Musgrave (at DEN) — 12% started

Start Over — Tyler Higbee (vs. PIT), Michael Mayer (at CHI), Zach Ertz (at SEA)

Musgrave's stats don't look great because he hasn't scored a TD and left one game in the first half with a concussion, but he's otherwise played at least 69 percent of snaps in each contest while averaging 5.4 targets and 39.5 yards. The Broncos, meanwhile, have given up a league-high 16.8 PPR points per game and 10.3 YPT to tight ends, continuing to struggle against the position despite showing some overall defensive improvement the past few weeks.

Other Good Matchups: Mark Andrews (vs. DET), Darren Waller (vs. WAS)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Kirk Cousins (vs. SF) — 43% started

Start Instead — Jared Goff (at BAL), Matthew Stafford (vs. PIT), Brock Purdy (at MIN)

A matchup with San Francisco is always tough, and in this case the outlook is even worse than most of us instinctively think. The Niners defense appears healthier than the Vikings offense, with the only starter that missed Week 6 (LB Dre Greenlaw - hamstring) potentially back on the field this coming Monday after managing a limited practice last Friday. The Vikings, of course, won't have WR Justin Jefferson, whose presence for the first five games coincided with Minnesota having the third highest pass rate over expectation (+3.6 percent) in the league.

The number dipped to +0.2% this past Sunday in a win over the Bears; not exactly a monumental change, but at least a hint in the logical direction of calling more run plays while Jefferson is sidelined. A game that once might've had shootout potential now seems much more likely to be low-scoring, given the possibility of 49ers stars Deebo Samuel (ribs), Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Trent Williams (high ankle) all sitting out in addition to JJ.

Other Tough Matchups: Trevor Lawrence (at NO), Sam Howell (at NYG), Gardner Minshew (vs. CLE)

Running Backs 👎

Jonathan Taylor (vs. CLE) — 76% started

Start Instead — Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. BUF), Brian Robinson (at NYG)

Even if his share of the Indy backfield work increases again, Taylor isn't in the best position to make good on his touches. He's managed only 37 yards on 14 carries so far and now faces a Cleveland defense that's given up only 3.5 YPC (5th), 79.0 rushing yards per game (4th) and 16.1 PPR points to running backs (8th). There is some chance of LB Anthony Walker missing a #RevengeGame due to a concussion, but that would still leave the Browns with Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Sione Takitaki at linebacker — a better duo than most teams can field at full strength. On top of that, there's some chance of Zack Moss maintaining one-third to half of the backfield work — at least for another week or two — given that JT has yet to get rolling.

Gus Edwards (vs. DET) — 29% started

Start Instead — Zach Evans (vs. PIT), Najee Harris (at LAR)

Edwards has yet to run for more than 62 yards in a game this year and now faces a Detroit defense that's yet to allow more than 43 to any individual running back. No team has allowed fewer PPR points to the position (12.1) and only Seattle has a better mark for YPC against (2.7, compared to 3.1 for Detroit). The floor here is incredibly low, as Edwards isn't likely to be efficient and always comes with the risk of losing more work to Justice Hill if he gets off to a slow start or the Ravens simply want to pass more.

Other Tough Matchups: Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (at TB), Rachaad White (vs. ATL), Zack Moss (vs. CLE)

Wide Receivers 👎

Marquise Brown (at SEA) — 62% started

Start Instead — Chris Godwin (vs. ATL), Jordan Addison (vs. SF), Terry McLaurin (at NYG)

While no team has allowed more fantasy points to WRs this season, Seattle has done much better recently after giving up a ton of catches to the Rams, Lions and Panthers over the first three weeks. It was probably just a matter of time in any case, as the Seahawks have 2022 rookie sensation Riq Woolen pairing up with fifth overall pick Devon Witherspoon at cornerback. Woolen hasn't been as good as he was last year, but Witherspoon and Tre Brown both hold top-20 PFF grades at the position and have combined to allow only 27 catches on 51 targets. Also note that Seattle is a respectable 13th in YPT allowed (7.8) to wide receivers; the production has largely been volume-based, and a lot of it came against S Julian Love (who dropped to 44% snap share last week with Jamal Adams back in the lineup).

Courtland Sutton (vs. GB) — 29% started

Start Instead — Michael Thomas (vs. JAX), Joshua Palmer (at KC), Jerry Jeudy (vs. GB)

There's not much to like about Denver's offense in general, but Jerry Jeudy at least has the relative advantage given that he's spent 60 percent of his time in the slot, where Green Bay mostly uses Keisan Nixon (better known as a return specialist). Sutton will see more of the Packers' excellent perimeter corners, Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, making him unlikely to continue the TD-fueled production. Sutton has just 14 targets over his past three games, and with Jeudy you at least get some potential for the Broncos to force-feed him ahead of a potential trade. Which isn't to say I want to start Jeudy... it's more that I definitely, definitely don't want to use Sutton this week.

Other Tough Matchups: Michael Pittman & Josh Downs (vs. CLE), Josh Reynolds (at BAL)

Tight Ends 👎

Tyler Higbee (vs. PIT) — 23% started

Start Instead — Jonnu Smith (at TB), Michael Mayer (at CHI)

Higbee is already trending down with six targets in two games since Cooper Kupp returned from injured reserve, and the veteran TE could do more pass-blocking than usual this week against a Pittsburgh defense that has two excellent edge rushers (T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith) and the seventh-highest blitz rate (36.0 percent). The Steelers have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, despite facing George Kittle, David Njoku, Dalton Schultz and Mark Andrews through five games. Higbee is unlikely to be the one to break the trend.