This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (OVER 54.5) (-110)
What a matchup of teams that came through for us last week! The Bengals rode their defense and kicker "Money Mac" Evan McPherson to victory over the Titans last week and now look to keep the momentum going as they head to Arrowhead. What can I say about the EPIC Chiefs/Bills contest that hasn't already been said? Perhaps the only unique thing I can say is KC was my NFL Playoffs GOY selection for my clients and I'm very happy with the miraculous result! Both defenses have to be exhausted coming into this game for very different reasons. Cincy's D balled out in holding down the vaunted Tennessee run game while the KC D had to run all over the field to try to stop Josh Allen and Gabriel Davis. This number is actually smaller than last week's BUF/KC game and these teams put up 65 points in their Week 17 game and that was with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill at less than 100%. Both teams should be able to move the ball on the other and I don't foresee many empty possessions coming from the offensive talent and reliable kickers on display in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs 
(-7.5) (-104) vs. Cincinnati Bengals 
In this round, winners cover spreads at a very high clip and, for some of the reasons listed above, I think the Chiefs win relatively comfortably. At some point, Cincinnati's O-Line issues and, by extension, the number of hits Joe Burrow takes are going to catch up. So too will the collective inexperience compared to Kansas City. History says the winner covers and I don't see the Chiefs losing this game.
San Francisco 49ers 
(+3.5) (-114) at Los Angeles Rams 
Perhaps the final "real vs. fraud" game of the year. Kyle Shanahan has Sean McVay's number for many reasons and, I'm probably one of the few people to say this, but I trust Jimmy Garoppolo over Matthew Stafford as well. The Niners are masterful at disguising and motioning both their offense and defense pre-snap, which has neutralized Aaron Donald on one side and the Rams' creative offense on the other. San Francisco's secondary does scare me, especially with Cooper Kupp on the docket, but its overall defense is playing at such a high level that I trust what they have going on. I called a KC/SF Super Bowl to start the playoffs and I see nothing but support for that now.
Other Bets
Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow to have 300+ passing yards each (+360)
I know, I know, you get it……I think the Bengals/Chiefs game is going to be high-scoring. Does anyone disagree? If so, feel free to move along from this bet. But if you do agree, and the game plays out as I see it, the Chiefs will get out to and maintain a decent lead, but will also be pushed by the Bengals throughout. The only way Cincinnati is going to push the Chiefs is with chunk plays out of the passing game, where Kansas City is susceptible. I think this is a very attainable outcome and the value is worth a play.
C.J. Uzomah receiving yards (UNDER 35.5) (-114)
Taking into account what I said above, those chunk plays will have to come from their big-play receivers on the outside, not Uzomah. This number is a bit inflated by some of his big regular season games, but a closer look shows those big games have come in games when the Bengals were either even or had a lead. If you believe the Chiefs will win and get out to a lead, then this play is for you.
Jimmy Garoppolo passing yards (OVER 226.5) (-114)
I believe this number is WAY off due to Jimmy's last two games. One was in arctic conditions last week in Green Bay and the other was a game that was basically a blowout for 80% of the game until weird things happened down the stretch in Dallas. It isn't going to be arctic in LA nor do I think this game will be a blowout. Taking those games out of the equation, Jimmy G hasn't gone under this number since Week 11. Since George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have been healthy, Jimmy has thrived. When these teams played in Week 18 in what was basically a playoff game for SF, Jimmy threw for 316. I envision something similar again this week.
PAST RESULTS
Last week: 3-3, -0.3 units
Nailed the games, failed the props. Getting closer to a breakout week…..let's do it!
Overall: 24-30, -7.89 units
