This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The wise Scott Jenstad recently reminded me that if you're going to bet a parlay then you should also bet each individual line just in case all but one hits. That would have been very helpful for the Week 11 Tickets, which were successful overall but could have been huge. The Jets and Chargers delivered for us, with Denzel Mims going over 46.5 receiving yards (finishing with 71), Keenan Allen going over 80.5 (he had 145), and the Chargers won for a +381 return. Our Taysom Hill three-way parlay hit as well, as he went over 169.5 passing yards (he had 223) and scored a rushing touchdown in the Saints' win over the Falcons, giving us a solid +490 hit. Good times.
Our two other parlays came up short, as Dalvin Cook scored a touchdown, Justin Jefferson went over 58.5 receiving yards (finishing with 86), Amari Cooper went over 59.5 yards (he had 81), but the Vikings moneyline killed the +581 parlay, losing 31-28. Finally, the Chiefs' did a solid job defensively against Josh Jacobs, holding him under 65.5 rushing yards in their win. All in all, there were 12 individual bets included and the only ones that didn't hit were the Vikings moneyline and Jacobs going over his rushing total. Not bad if you bet each individual prop in addition to the parlays.
Hopefully we can keep it up for Week 12, one that has been pretty significantly affected by various COVID-19 issues, including a twice-postponed Steelers-Ravens game that is now scheduled for Tuesday.
Justin Jefferson over 74.5 receiving yards, Dalvin Cook over 24.5 receiving yards and DJ Moore over 59.5 receiving yards (+595)
Jefferson has one of the higher receiving yards projections for the weekend, as the Vikings will be without No. 1 wide receiver Adam Thielen, who leads the team in targets. However, it's Jefferson who leads them in receiving yards thanks to five games over 74.5 this season, including each of his last two when he had 135 and 86, respectively. Meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed the third-most receptions to running backs this season, while Cook has gone over 24.5 in three of his last four. Finally, Moore continues to be overlooked by many despite having at least 93 yards in five of his last seven while facing a Vikings defense that's allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to wide receivers. If you just want to use the wide receivers in this game, that bet pays +250, and adding a Cook anytime touchdown to the trio brings it to +843. Cook is supposed to dominate in this one, but his rushing yards prop of 110.5 seems steep even though he's gone over that five times this season, including three of his last four (the one down game in that latest stretch was also his only game this season without a touchdown).
Wayne Gallman over 55.5 rushing yards, Evan Engram over 36.5 receiving yards and Giants moneyline (+362)
Gallman continues to be the Giants' primary running back, and while he has only gone over 55.5 rushing yards once this season (two weeks ago against Football Team), he now faces a Bengals defense that's allowed a league-high 5.24 yards per carry, resulting in the fourth-most rushing yards given up on the 12th-most rushing attempts. Meanwhile, only four teams have allowed more receiving yards to tight ends, which plays well for Engram, who went over 39.5 in three of his last four. And finally, we'll go a little safer with the Giants moneyline given they haven't been good this season, so asking them to cover a 6.0-point spread feels like a tall task.
Mike Evans over 50.5 receiving yards, Chris Godwin over 58.5 receiving yards and Antonio Brown over 57.5 receiving yards (+610)
The recent addition of Brown has certainly mixed the Tampa Bay passing game up a little bit, but these lines feel a bit off given that quarterback Tom Brady's passing yards prop is 287.5. The 56.5-point total in this game is the highest of Week 12, and there are plenty of indications that Brady will have to throw the ball enough to keep the Buccaneers close to the Chiefs. The matchup isn't great, as Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this season, but these three could presumably all hit their overs while combining for fewer than 170 yards. If you think this game is just an offensive yards explosion, adding in Travis Kelce over 77.5 receiving yards and Tyreek Hill over 74.5 brings you to a ridiculous +2627, though you also have to recognize that it's a completely ridiculous bet.
Nyheim Hines over 47.5 rushing yards and over 28.5 receiving yards (+261)
Hines and Jordan Wilkins are expected to get bigger workloads Sunday against the Titans after Jonathan Taylor was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The timing works out well for Hines, who had his best game of the season against this same Titans defense in Week 10, rushing 12 times for 70 yards and a touchdown while also catching five of six targets for 45 yards and another score. It's worth noting that it was the only time this season he's gone over 47.5 rushing yards, though he's gone over the 28.5 receiving yards five times, including three of his last four. The Titans have been fairly good against running backs this season, but Hines doesn't really have to have a huge game for this one to work. If you're nervous that Wilkins will end up with all the rushing work, combining Hines' receiving yards prop and Wilkins over 41.5 rushing yards pays +251.
