This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Week 12 Tickets weren't as fruitful as the week prior, but there were still some successful hits for those who individually bet the props instead of just sticking to the parlays. For example, despite scoring two touchdowns, Justin Jefferson didn't go over 74.5 yards (finishing with 70) and Dalvin Cook came up four yards short of going over 24.5 receiving yards. However, DJ Moore went over 59.5 (finishing with 61), so it wasn't a total loss if you separated the bets out.
As a Jets fan it's never fun to cheer for the Giants, but when you have a parlay with Wayne Gallman over 55.5 rushing yards, Evan Engram over 36.5 receiving yards and the Giants moneyline hit at +362 then I guess I can accept it. It helped make up for the Buccaneers' receivers basically putting up eggs, with Mike Evans failing to go over 50.5 receiving yards by finishing with 50, Antonio Brown not coming close to going over 57.5 (he had 11, oops) while Chris Godwin went over 58.5 by ending with 97. Finally, Nyheim Hines' rushing prop of 47.5 had no chance of going over with the Colts down 35-14 at the half, though he had no trouble going over 28.5 receiving yards.
So, some hits and some misses, which is going to happen every week (at least we hope there are hits!). Let's see what Week 13 brings, one that didn't have a Thursday game but will have at least one on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.
Corey Davis over 57.5 receiving yards, Nick Chubb over 83.5 rushing yards and Derrick Henry anytime touchdown (+394)
Amazingly, the Browns vs. Titans game has the highest total of the week, so surely there are yards to be accumulated and touchdowns to be scored. Davis hasn't gotten huge volume lately, but he's still gone over 57.5 in four of his last five games, including each of his last three. He's not the No. 1 option for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but Davis runs enough long routes that he doesn't need 10 catches to get to his yardage prop. Meanwhile, Chubb leads the league in yards per carry among players with at least 100 rushing attempts, but it's not like he's being used sparingly, getting at least 19 carries in five of six games, including each of his last three, all of which were rushing games over 110. The Derrick Henry rushing prop of 100.5 feels a bit high (which is hilarious to think after he's broken that three games in a row), so instead we'll take the anytime touchdown at -340.
Kirk Cousins over 259.5 passing yards, Justin Jefferson over 68.5 receiving yards, Adam Thielen over 72.5 receiving yards (+355), Dalvin Cook anytime touchdowns and Vikings moneyline (+656)
Is this over-doing it? Probably. I originally considered only Cousins and the two wide receivers but did what everyone probably shouldn't do and added the Cook touchdown at -380 and the Vikings moneyline at -500 to boost the payout. Is this a rookie move? Yes, but it's also not stopping me. This game has one of the highest totals of Week 13 and the Vikings are 10.5-point favorites, with plenty of fireworks expected from their offense. There is plenty of optimism for Cook, whose rushing prop is 108.5, but we're going to take the passing route against a Jaguars defense that's allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers and the third-most passing yards this season. Cousins has gone over 259.5 in four of his last six games, including each of his last three, while the Jaguars have allowed more than 259.5 in six of their last eight. With Thielen and Jefferson his top two targets, there's plenty of upside for them to cruise over their prop lines.
Chris Carson over 58.5 rushing yards, Tyler Lockett over 63.5 receiving yards and Seahawks moneyline (+299)
The Seahawks are 10.5-point home favorites against a Giants defense that has been decent against the run and has looked great statistically against the pass lately, though that's because they played Carson Wentz and Brandon Allen. Seattle obviously presents a significantly different situation, and with the expectation that DK Metcalf will be shadowed by James Bradberry, Tyler Lockett should be able to take advantage and help him go over 63.5 receiving yards for the seventh time this season. Additionally, Carson should be getting a fuller workload after being eased in last week, especially after head coach Pete Carroll said he wants his run/pass split to be closer than it's been. Covering the 10.5-point spread is far from a slam dunk, so we'll add in the Seahawks win to help boost the payout.
Nelson Agholor over 40.5 receiving yards, Hunter Renfrow over 38.5 receiving yards, Breshad Perriman over 48.5 receiving yards (+589)
Every wide receiver in this game has an upgrade in this week's Corner Report, which has to make us look at the Raiders' pass catchers at first because only two teams allowed more receiving yards to wide receivers than the Jets through 11 games. It's worth mentioning that tight end Darren Waller is actually the Raiders' top pass catcher, but it's really wide receivers who have destroyed the Jets this year. Agholor and Renfrow aren't high-volume receivers, but their props are low enough given their matchups. Meanwhile, Perriman was targeted eight times last week by Sam Darnold, and if the Jets fall behind (they are 8.0-point underdogs), you figure they'll have to throw more to catch up.
