This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Week 16 Tickets weren't as fun as we hoped, but we did get a solid +373 win thanks to the Bears beating the Jaguars while David Montgomery went over 78.5 rushing yards (he had 95) and Mitchell Trubisky had more than 237.5 passing yards (finishing with 265). Unfortunately, that was the best we could do, as Kyler Murray easily went over 44.5 rushing yards but DeAndre Hopkins failed to reach 83.5 and they lost anyway. Tyreek Hill hurt us again, as he failed to go over 78.5 receiving yards, which killed the +600 parlay with Travis Kelce and Calvin Ridley going over (they both did).
And the Browns were a hot mess against the Jets, though that parlay may have been tossed out anyway because Rashard Higgins was ruled out after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, though Austin Hooper easily went over 25.5 receiving yards.
We jump into the final week of the regular season with a ton of questions around the NFL, highlighted by the Saints going into their last game with no running backs because Alvin Kamara tested positive for COVID and all the other active RBs were close contacts. However, the show must go on!
Aaron Jones over 63.5 rushing yards, David Montgomery over 25.5 receiving yards and Packers moneyline (+349)
There is a slight concern that the Packers won't go all-out because they have already clinched the AFC North and the Bears need a win to make the playoffs, but the rivalry between the two teams, and the fact that the Packers will clinch a first-round bye with a win has me confident they'll be okay. Jones comes in with more than 63.5 rushing yards in five straight games, and while he's facing a defense that's allowed the 14th-most rushing yards to running backs this season on the 13th-lowest yards per carry, his usage is high enough to get there. Meanwhile, only two teams have allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Packers, while Montgomery has gone over 25.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games.
Darren Waller over 61.5 receiving yards and Noah Fant over 48.5 receiving yards (+239)
We have a fun tight end stack in this game, as Waller is the clear top receiver for the Raiders and Fant has really come on of late with 20 targets in the past two games, racking up 68 and 65 receiving yards, respectively. Meanwhile, Waller has gone over 61.5 in five of his last six games, including each of the last four (three were over 110) and now faces the team that's allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to tight ends. Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, so theoretically there could be some concern they don't play all the way through, but both tight ends are capable of big plays that could make their props attainable early on. If you want to piggy back off of our Staff Picks, adding Broncos +2.5 brings the prop to +563.
Jonathan Taylor over 85.5 rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown, Zach Pascal over 37.5 receiving yards, Colts moneyline (+393)
The Jaguars have been abysmal against running backs this season, allowing the third-most rushing yards and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns, while Taylor has taken over the Colts' backfield, rushing for more than 75 yards in four of the last five games and scoring five touchdowns in the past three games (with at least one in each). Meanwhile, Pascal has seen more work recently, with six targets in each of the past two games, helping him to 79 and 64 receiving yards, respectively, and he's now facing a defense that's allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Justin Jefferson over 75.5 receiving yards, Adam Thielen over 67.5 receiving yards, D'Andre Swift over 59.5 rushing yards (+562)
The Lions have been absolutely horrific, allowing the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers, which sets up very well for the Vikings, who have one of the best one-two wideout duos in the league. Jefferson has gone over 75.5 yards in five of his last seven games, while Thielen has gone over 67.5 in three of his last five. With Dalvin Cook out, the team could rely on Alexander Mattison, but throwing the ball to their excellent receivers seems like a more viable path. The potential game script doesn't really work in Swift's favor, but the Vikings have allowed the sixth-msot rushing yards to running backs this season, including 64 on 13 carries to Swift in Week 9.
