Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Drafting from Slots 1-3

I'm kicking off this year's four-part series on strategy by draft position, starting with the coveted 1-3 spots. The middle part of the first round also looks rather attractive this year, but it's still better to be up at the top, in part because a pick at/near the turn allows us to make selections in Rounds 2/4/6/8/etc. with a good idea of what will be available at the subsequent pick (Rounds 3/5/7/9/etc.). 

My strategy below is based on what one might consider a "normal" 12-team fantasy league. This isn't intended for superflex, TE premium or anything else like that, but I will make note of some possible differences between PPR and non-PPR scoring. There are still going to be massive differences from league to league, of course, so I won't necessarily assume the WR-crazed drafting approach that has taken a firm hold among so-called experts and in high-stakes leagues.

It helps a lot if you know ahead of time what type of competition you're facing and what to expect in terms of prioritization of positions. My "home" league tends to have drafts that look pretty similar to ADP data from expert, high-stakes and best-ball leagues, but that's probably not the case for a lot of people. 

The general trend is that leagues with less-experienced or lower-volume drafters tend to see QBs and RBs drafted earlier and WRs drafted later, e.g., Saquon Barkley might be a first-round pick and Josh Allen a second-rounder, which is basically never happening these days in best-ball lobbies or high-stakes leagues. If you're not sure where your league falls, one decent proxy to help with expectations is knowing how many other leagues most of your competitors are participating in. 

If most are playing in only one or two leagues, there's a good chance starting RBs will tend to go fairly early and people will want to fill out starting lineups before selecting backups. If most of your opponents are playing in a lot of leagues, there's a better chance you'll see "zero RB" teams or other strategies that entail seemingly imbalanced rosters through the first 6-8 rounds.

Round 1

There essentially are two paths we can set out on here, and if we're picking second or third there may not be any choice involved. Option A is Christian McCaffrey, the consensus 1.01 in RotoWire's roundtable rankings. Option B is a superstar WR, which for me means Tyreek Hill / CeeDee Lamb, in that order. I'm not going to fight you if you prefer Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson or even Breece Hall, but the smarter play is starting off with the guys that don't have QB concerns (re: JJ) and have already turned in monstrous, A++ fantasy seasons (something Chase and Hall haven't done... yet). 

Rounds 2-3

This range contains picks 22-27, which for me is still too early to draft a premium QB or TE, including the two guys (Josh Allen, Travis Kelce) that recently produced seasons commensurate with top-20 value. Let's break this down into McCaffrey teams vs. teams that started with a WR. ( Just pretend you're a CMC team ff you plan to ignore my prior advice and draft Breece the Beast with a top-three pick.)

McCaffrey Path

In PPR leagues, or even half-PPR, I'm almost always taking two WRs here if I drafted McCaffrey in the first round. It's worth making an exception if Jonathan Taylor or Jahmyr Gibbs is available — which they probably won't be — and I've personally dabbled in taking Saquon Barkley at the 2/3 turn (but kind of regret it upon further reflection). There are a lot of different WRs one might consider here, as my projections/valuations for 2024 have smaller-than-usual gaps between the players with ADPs in Round 2 and those in, say, Round 4.

Nico Collins, Drake London and Chris Olave will probably be gone, but I recommend drafting them if that's an option. Typical picks around the 2/3 turn include Cooper Kupp, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Malik Nabers, DK Metcalf and DeVonta Smith. Of that group, Kupp offers the highest ceiling but is also a lot older than all of the other guys (and missed 13 games over the past two seasons). 

Aiyuk, Samuel and Nabers are the ones I'm avoiding, mostly due to sketchy target-volume projections. Smith and Metcalf are the two that have sneaky upside due to offensive coordinator changes, even though they mostly seem like safe, boring picks after previously failing to take that "next step" (without having obvious excuses like horrible QB play or injuries).

Keep in mind that we don't need to shoot for the moon here. Teams combining McCaffrey with starting lineups that were otherwise solid but unspectacular won an awful lot of championships in four of the past six seasons. I'm generally a shoot-for-the-moon guy and thus lean toward Kupp, especially in full-PPR leagues, but a lot of people prefer safer picks early on and then mining for upside after Round 6 or so.

First-Round-WR Path

There's nothing inherently wrong with a triple-WR start, but it usually feels better from a flexibility standpoint if we have at least one RB heading toward Round 4 and beyond. It stinks if we have to pass up incredible value later on in the draft because we already loaded up heavy at one position in the early rounds and are left with glaring needs elsewhere (this is somewhat less true in leagues that tend to have a lot of trades).

In "standard"-scoring leagues with no reward for receptions, there's a solid argument to double up on RBs at the 2-3 turn if you can lock down two of Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry and De'Von Achane. I actually have Isiah Pacheco ranked in that same tier, but most would say the 2-3 turn is too early for him.

Rounds 4-5

We're now at picks 46-51, a range where I'm usually drafting veteran WRs like Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin and Tee Higgins, or else TEs Trey McBride and Mark Andrews. Other possible options include QBs Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes or RBs Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs.

We're deep enough into things that there's going to be major differences from draft to draft in terms of what's available. Generally speaking, I like the QBs and RBs in the middle rounds (6-10) more than the WRs and TEs this year, which tends to point me toward guys like McLaurin, Allen and McBride at the 4-5 turn even though I'm generally optimistic about Jackson, Mahomes, Etienne and Jacobs.

My ideal team through five rounds is a so-called Hero RB build, featuring a legitimate RB1 (preferably McCaffrey or Breece, but Kyren/Achane/Henry will do), three WRs and one premium guy at QB or TE. For what it's worth, I'm more willing to use early picks on both QB and TE in leagues with weaker competition where it'll be easier to fill out WR3 and FLEX spots with late-round picks, waiver additions, trades, etc. Against tougher competition, I'm more worried about getting left behind at wide receiver and will only do a light-WR build if the value at other positions is absolutely smacking me in the face (e.g. Pacheco and Jalen Hurts falling to the 4-5 turn).

Rounds 6-7

At this point, picks 70-75, our strategy has almost nothing to do with draft position and everything to do with the decisions that we and our league-mates have already made. For what it's worth, perhaps not much, my most common selections here in best ball drafts have been WRs Rome Odunze, Jordan Addison (pre-arrest), DeAndre Hopkins and Ladd McConkey.

Other good options worth jumping on if they're still available include QB C.J. Stroud, RB Alvin Kamara, RB Kenneth Walker and TE George Kittle. I also like Kyler Murray or James Conner, and wouldn't hesitate to draft both if my QB and RB2 slots are still open (even if I already took McBride at the 4-5 turn).

A lot of people will want to come out of Round 7 having drafted one QB, two RBs, three WRs and one TE, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with taking our third RB before our third WR or our fourth WR before our second RB if that's where the value lies, especially in leagues with FLEX spots and half/full-PPR scoring. 

A 'Hero RB' build at this point might look like 1 QB, 1 RB, 4 WRs, 1 TE, with the intention then being to load up on RBs in Rounds 8-13. As previously mentioned, I'm a big fan of this approach, especially when starting off with a premium RB1 like McCaffrey, Hall or Bijan Robinson.

Rounds 8-9

We're now at picks 94-99, likely choosing between low-end TE1s, low-end QB1s, RB3 types with major timeshare concerns, or WRs facing various questions about talent/volume/QB. If we don't have a TE yet, this is where we can draft Brock Bowers as a ceiling play or David Njoku as a floor pick. QB options may include Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love and Jayden Daniels, but I'm more inclined to continue waiting if I missed out on the Top 7 already (Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, Jackson, Richardson, Stroud, Murray).

For RBs, this is a good spot to pick up Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris or D'Andre Swift if they slip below ADP, while guys I'm willing to "reach" a bit for include Devin Singletary and Tyjae Spears. Other sensible picks include Raheem Mostert, Jonathon Brooks, Zack Moss and Tony Pollard. For wide receivers, it feels like there's usually a big drop-off right before this where the last guys with ceilings beyond fantasy-WR3 status are already gone, but I can see making an exception for Jameson Williams or Curtis Samuel. The other guy I'll definitely consider is Addison, who has dropped a couple rounds since his DWI arrest. But really, I've mostly been drafting RBs or Bowers here.

Rounds 10-11

With picks 118-123, this is a good time to draft a QB if we haven't already, with possible options including hyper-talented players like Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence who offer some scrambling upside but come with team-context concerns. I prefer those guys to the efficient "scheme merchants", i.e., Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa.... unless Brock Purdy is still available (he had 144 rushing yards and two TDs last year, plus his passing efficiency was a whole level above Tua and Goff's).

If we've already drafted a starting QB earlier, this is probably the place to take swings on upside at RB and/or WR. He might sound boring, but Ezekiel Elliott offers a real ceiling due to the possibility of playing a ton of snaps in a good offense. He's been my favorite pick at this spot so far, and it's generally a range where RBs seem like the best value. Other good choices include Javonte Williams, Chase Brown, Austin Ekeler and Gus Edwards.

This is probably earlier than we need to draft Dontayvion Wicks or Josh Downs in a lot of leagues, but they're the WRs I currently like most in this range. I'm less enthusiastic about guys like Brandin Cooks or Rashid Shaheed, as they're secure in starting roles but aren't likely to see a ton of passes and probably aren't suited to huge target shares even if the WR1 ahead of them gets injured. Jerry Jeudy, for all his disappointment, seems like a better upside bet if you're targeting a No. 2 wide receiver who probably needs the WR1 ahead of him to be injured in order to crush his ADP.

For tight ends, this tends to be kind of a dead zone. I like Pat Freiermuth and don't hate Dallas Goedert, but we've probably seen enough of both to know that a high-end TE1 season simply isn't happening. I don't think I've drafted a TE at the 10-11 turn even once in all my best-ball escapades this offseason; I take Freiermuth quite a bit, just not this early.

Rounds 12-13

We've come to picks 142-147, which may represent the last chance to build depth or take swings at upside before it's time to fill out the roster with a kicker and defense. My strategy here is always to shoot for the moon in leagues that only draft 14-16 rounds, as it should be easy enough to find mediocrity on waivers. This is where we want fun picks, not boring ones. That often means drafting a young RB who has shown signs of talent but lacks a secure role, e.g., Jaleel McLaughlin, Ray Davis, Kimani Vidal, J.K. Dobbins.

Rounds 14-15

This is where we're taking a kicker and D/ST in a typical fantasy league. I won't really get into strategy there, as you can simply look at the RW rankings and projections that I work on throughout the offseason. The only thing I'll note is that the Chargers have the most-favorable-looking schedule Weeks 1-3, making them a good choice in the final round if we plan to stream defenses anyway (in which case you should also check out my Streaming Defenses article, posted every Tuesday morning from the beginning of September through Week 18).

Some leagues won't force us to draft a kicker and D/ST, in which case it could make more sense to "squat" on a backup RB, especially if we're drafting well before the season begins. The thinking is that guys like Elijah Mitchell and Tyler Allgeier (or even Khalil Herbert and Dameon Pierce) are one summer injury away from an instant value spike, whereas a kicker or defense lacks that that possibility. We'll obviously need a kicker and defense for Week 1, but it's fine to pick them up based on matchups early in September.