Football is the ultimate team sport, as most plays require most if not all 11 players on the field for your team to execute their specialized roles to find success. Given that context, it's no surprise that players are significantly affected by changes in teammates, especially at the skill positions that fantasy football managers care about most. When looking at how next team odds for free agents influence player projections, it's important to examine not only the free agents themselves and their likely replacements but also their potential new teammates.
Before we dive into some of the potential landing spots for some of the biggest names in fantasy football that could be on the move this offseason, let's take a quick peek back at last offseason and examine how narratives around top free-agent moves, trades, and their second-order effects impacted player projections. Some notable names that changed teams in the offseason included Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook moving from Green Bay and Minnesota, respectively, to the Jets, as well as DeAndre Hopkins hopping over from Arizona to Tennessee. Shortly before Rodgers signed with the Jets, New York added former Packers wide receiver Allen Lazard, who had a 14th-round ADP in 2023 due largely to his success catching passes from Rodgers in 2022. Had Rodgers not come to New York, Lazard would have gone undrafted in most formats, so it's no surprise he failed to live up to his ADP after Rodgers got injured in his Jets debut. Cook backed up Breece Hall in New York, but the biggest ADP move resulting from Cook's change in teams was that of Alexander Mattison, who went in the sixth/seventh round as the new RB1 in Minnesota. Hopkins finished with a sixth-round ADP in Tennessee, but he was speculatively going a round or two higher in drafts earlier in the offseason before he locked himself into Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis as his quarterback options.
The 2024 offseason could lead to substantial changes in the NFL's running back landscape via free agency, while a mix of free agents, draft prospects and possible trades are poised to change numerous teams' quarterback contexts, which will also influence pass catchers. Here's a look at the top rumored landing spots for a few of the biggest names available this offseason, based on next-team odds from leading sportsbooks such as DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kirk Cousins
Top next team odds: Vikings (-200), Falcons (+300)
Cousins is the best veteran QB available, assuming all goes well with his recovery from a torn Achilles. The Vikings are hoping to re-sign him, but if he winds up in Atlanta, that would be a massive boon to TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London. Pitts and London have underperformed statistically since being top-10 selections in the 2022 and 2023 NFL Drafts, respectively, but poor QB play has factored heavily into that underperformance. The addition of Cousins would theoretically solve that issue. Both talented pass catchers had eighth-round ADPs last season but would likely slide up a couple of rounds if Cousins comes to Atlanta. Justin Jefferson proved he can produce regardless of who starts under center for the Vikings, so Cousins' landing spot probably won't affect the star WR's fantasy stock much.
Justin Fields
Top next team odds: Falcons (-130), Steelers (+330)
The Bears are notably third at +600, suggesting Chicago's likely to move Fields. On a related note, Caleb Williams has overwhelming -1500 odds to be drafted first overall, so it's just a matter of whether the Bears hold onto that pick or trade it to allow another team to select the QB out of USC. If the Falcons miss out on Cousins, trading for Fields would be another way to improve the team's QB situation, though it's unclear how much Atlanta's pass catchers would benefit from the addition of a QB who has shown much more promise with his legs than his arm. Fields to Pittsburgh wouldn't move the needle much for that team's top weapons such as George Pickens or Diontae Johnson, either. Given the chemistry Fields showed with DJ Moore in Chicago last season, going from Fields to the unproven Williams may not be much of a step up for Moore, even if the Bears' passing game as a whole is likely to get better.
Derrick Henry
Top next team odds: Ravens (+125), Cowboys (+550)
The Ravens are the clear favorites to land Henry now that his time in Tennessee is up. Henry's departure should open up the lead role in the Titans' backfield for 2023 fifth-round draft pick Tyjae Spears, who had 838 scrimmage yards as a rookie. Baltimore loves its backfield timeshares, and QB Lamar Jackson does much of his damage on the ground as well, so Henry would be in for a massive downtick in workload after leading the league in carries in four of the last five years. Both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are set to hit the open market, but Baltimore still has Justice Hill and explosive rookie Keaton Mitchell at RB, though Mitchell is recovering from a torn ACL. Henry's days as a top-20 fantasy pick are likely behind him at age 30.
Saquon Barkley
Top next team odds: Giants (-150), Texans (+275)
If Saquon leaves, the Giants will almost certainly sign another RB to lead their backfield, so there isn't a clear beneficiary on their roster for that scenario. This point is likely moot since New York is favored to retain the star RB's services, but if he lands in Houston, Barkley would replace fellow pending free agent Devin Singletary atop the depth chart, above Dameon Pierce. Regardless of where he plays, Barkley's unlikely to fall past the early second round if healthy.
Mike Evans
Top next team odds: Buccaneers (+150), Texans (+300)
Both Evans and QB Baker Mayfield are free agents, though the most likely scenario is that both return to Tampa Bay. Houston would be an intriguing destination for Evans, as his ability to create separation downfield and make contested catches in tight would pair perfectly with QB C.J. Stroud's mix of arm strength and accuracy. If the Texans sign Evans, it could mean a decrease in targets for Nico Collins. After Evans posted his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard season in 2023, his 2024 ADP is likely to climb from his eighth-round 2023 valuation no matter where the veteran wideout ends up.
Honorable Mentions
Other big names who could potentially change teams in the 2023 offseason, with varying degrees of likelihood of moving and ripple effects include QB Russell Wilson, QB Baker Mayfield, RB Austin Ekeler, RB Josh Jacobs, RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Pittman, WR Tee Higgins, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Marquise Brown and TE Dalton Schultz. Most of these players' current teams lack obvious contingency plans and could look for outside help if they don't re-sign, but the Raiders have a replacement ready for Jacobs in Zamir White, who rushed for 397 yards in the last four games of 2023. Notable skill players expected to be drafted soon after Williams in the 2024 NFL Draft include UNC QB Drake Maye, LSU QB Jayden Daniels, Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy, Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU WR Malik Nabers, Washington WR Rome Odunze, and Georgia TE Brock Bowers.
