Fielkow's Law: Deflategate's Not Over Yet

U.S. District Court Judge Richard M. Berman on Thursday -- exactly one week before the start of the NFL season -- vacated the NFL's four-game suspension of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, but that doesn't necessarily mean Brady's fantasy owners can rest easy just yet.

Judge Berman's decision was predicated on a number of factors, including a finding that there were serious deficiencies with the way NFL Commissioner Rodger Goodell disciplined Brady. "Notice" is an essential due process requirement in arbitration proceedings, and Judge Berman determined Brady did not have sufficient notice of the accusations against him and for what he was being punished. Judge Berman also found that Goodell's arbitration hearing was fundamentally unfair to Brady, because Goodell prevented Brady's attorney from cross-examining crucial witnesses and inspect important documents.¹

The obvious result of the court's ruling is that Brady is eligible to play immediately. The NFL appealed the ruling to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, but, according to reports, it will not seek an injunction, or "stay," of Judge Berman's order that would force Brady to serve his suspension while the appeal is pending. As such, Brady will suit up when the Patriots take the field Week 1 against the Steelers. If you drafted Brady with hopes of that outcome -- kudos!

This story is not quite done yet, however. While Brady's early season outlook should be unfettered, Brady could still serve a suspension, perhaps this season, if the Second Circuit overturns Judge Berman's decision. Typically, an appeal in the U.S. court of appeals takes eight to 12 months, but a number of factors could influence timing. The NFL, however, could petition the Second Circuit for an expedited appeal, which would likely reduce the length of the timeline for a decision to two or three months.

Three judges will be selected to a panel that will eventually hear the NFL's appeal. Without knowing the composition of the three-judge panel -- which is important because the ideology of the panel on relevant topics such as labor relations and arbitrator discretion could vary significantly depending on which three judges are selected -- it's difficult to predict the likely outcome of the case. That said, the NFL faces an uphill climb in convincing at least two of the three appellate judges that Judge Berman misapplied the law. Appellate courts typically do not reverse district court judges on their orders to vacate or confirm arbitration awards.

Clearly, fantasy owners who have yet to draft should move Brady up their draft boards accordingly, likely into that second tier of quarterbacks, behind Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. After a slow start to 2014, from Week 5 through Week 16, Brady ranked second in the NFL in passing touchdowns (29) and fifth in yards per game (294.4). ²

However, even though Brady's short-term value soars with Judge Berman's ruling, fantasy owners should still proceed with some caution when assessing Brady's season-long or keeper prospects. While it would be surprising if Judge Berman's decision is reversed, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. An appellate ruling against Brady during the offseason likely would mean that he would be staring at a four-game suspension to start the 2016 NFL season.

Worse, if the NFL's petition for an expedited appeal process is granted, the Second Circuit could render a decision this year. An order coming during the season that reinstates the suspension could be disastrous for fantasy teams, particularly if Brady is forced to serve his suspension during the fantasy playoffs.

We can finally at least say we have some clarity on "Deflategate." Unfortunately, it may not be over quite yet.