FSGA Football Futures and Props Draft Recap 2024

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Published on July 1, 2024

FSGA Futures and Props Draft: NFL and College Football Best Bets 2024

The FSGA put together several industry drafts this week and I was fortunate enough to participate in their Futures and Props draft. It's a unique draft in which 17 teams draft props for the upcoming season and place a wager between $250 and $1,750 on each selection. Each team has an imaginary $10,000 bankroll to draw from. You'll see the full rules below, including which betting markets are available. If you want to see how the entire draft shook out, you can check out the draft board here.

This draft is so interesting because there really is no roadmap. No tried and true strategy. No ADP. You can completely whiff on your first five picks and still win if you somehow stumble into a league-winner in the end game. That's what makes this league so fun; it's a unique exercise that has so much fluidity and variability.

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The Ground Rules

Snake Draft
17 Teams, 12 Rounds
$10,000 Bankroll
$250 Min Bet, $1,750 Max Bet Per Pick

Betting Markets

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Draft Strategy

This is my fifth go-round in this league so for as unique of a format as this is, I at least have a handle on what I want to do going into the draft. There's enough sample in this league that proves you need to hit on at least a couple relative long shots or one crazy long shot with a big bet behind it to truly be in contention. Going 12/12 on -110 props isn't going to get you to the podium here. Of course, going 0/12 on +1000 or longer bets isn't going to do you much good, either.

Knowing the room is important. I was drafting right next to fellow CFB junkie Eric Froton from NBC Sports Bet and the great John Laub was also in this league. As the draft unfolded, I noted that there were more than just three college football experts in the room as Brett Lanier from Bettor Vision, Adam Shapiro from Advance Local Media and the guys from Square to Sharp all went heavy at the college football markets early.

This was good and bad. Good because it narrowed my focus in prioritizing the college football bets I felt I had to have and it also stemmed the tide of NFL markets getting totally picked over by the time I shifted focus over there. Bad because, well, inevitably some of my college football bets were going to get snatched up and they did.

Beyond taking my hacks at the college markets, I wanted to get at least one Super Bowl bet in my portfolio along with some longshot NFL futures that are voted on. Narratives win out a lot of the time for such things, and I had my eyes set on bets for Offensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year along with Coach of the year and Comeback Player of the Year.

2023 Results

Georgia to win the National Championship (+220)
- Still heartbroken about this
Jordan Travis to win the Heisman (+1600)
- This was live until late in the season when Travis suffered a devastating leg injury
Penn State to win the Big Ten (+600)
- Lesson learned. Never again.
Jaguars to win the AFC South (-155)
- What a collapse. This was in the bag!
USC to win the PAC-12 (+200)
- Woof
UCLA to win the PAC-12 (+1500)
- Woof
Bills Under 10.5 Wins (-110)
- The anti-collapse. This looked like a lock going into December. Thanks a lot, Josh Allen.
Texas Tech to win the Big 12 (+1100)
- Not even going to defend this one.
Lions to win the NFC North (+130)
- Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
John Metchie for CPOY (+2000)
- I still think the thought process was solid, but it was impossible to know how far off Metchie was from being a full-go. He played 285 snaps in 16 games.
Houston Texans OVER 5.5 Wins (-110)
- Texans Optimism was my best call of 2023.
Nolan Smith for DROY (+2500)
- The board was pretty dried up by this point but I still envisioned a bigger season out of Smith than just 18 tackles and fewer defensive snaps than special teams snaps.

Draft Recap

Alright, enough preamble. Let's see the picks.

Round 1

The Pick: Ohio State to win the National Championship (+375, max bet of $1750)

I wrote about this at length in my CFP National Championship Picks. Here are the cliff notes for why the Buckeyes were my first bet in this draft

Elite Talent with a 90 percent Blue Chip Ratio, the best mark in the nation
Improved Quarterback Room
Best Backfield in College Football
Experienced, Talented Defense
An OC in Chip Kelly that can maximize the rushing threats on the field
A Coach Who Knows He's Cooked If He Doesn't Win It All

Round 2

The Pick: Nico Iamaleava to win the Heisman (+1600, $1000 bet)

If I could have done it again, I would have thought harder about hedging the national championship with another and taken Ole Miss at the same odds as the bet I placed. It didn't make it back around to me in the third and it would've been great to have that in the portfolio. Alas.

Like the Ohio State bet, I broke down the case for Iamaleava for Heisman in my Heisman Watch article last week. Long story short, I think the Heisman market is more open than ever this year with the expanded playoff and as long as Tennessee finishes in the Top 12, one of the major boxes for Heisman candidacy will be checked.

The other, more important, detail is that Iamaleava should have dominant production. It'll look a little different, but I'm getting 2021 Bryce Young vibes from this Vol. He basically got to redshirt and learn the system as a highly touted freshman and is now ready to be unleashed very much like Young was in his Heisman season. I think 4,250 yards of total offense and ~40 total touchdowns are in play for him. Tennessee should only be an underdog in one game as it stands and I think Iamaleava delivers a memorable season in Knoxville.

Round 3

The Pick: Packers to Win the Super Bowl (+1900, $1,000 Bet)

I really would have liked to have a conference champion market option available. It's a much better bet to target the Packers to win the NFC than it is to bet on them beating Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 59 (yes, I'm a Ravens fan and I'm already conceding the AFC to the Chiefs again). Still, I absolutely believe the Packers can get there, and anything can happen in the Super Bowl.

For one, I think the supposed top of the NFC is due for a backslide. The 49ers have come heartbreakingly close so many times, I wonder if the scar tissue is starting to collect. Plus, I wonder how long Brock Purdy can continue his magic act. And the defense lost some serious depth up front, headlined by Arik Armstead. If that unit takes a step back and more is put on Purdy's plate, it could be rough sailing. Especially if Brandon Aiyuk is playing elsewhere. A lot of ifs, yes, but I'm not sold that the 49ers will just run away with the NFC again.

The Eagles fell apart down the stretch last year and I'm not sold that the slate is totally wiped clean there, either. I'm not a huge fan of either of the coordinator hires and I'm not sold that Jalen Hurts is much more than good. He is not elite; he works well in favorable setups but I'm not sold that he can go toe-to-toe with the best in the game or bring the Eagles back from a deficit.

The Cowboys, well...

Moving on. The Lions will be tough again this year. This is their shot. All the pieces are in place on offense, and our Jim Coventry does an excellent job of what can happen to the defense if the secondary improves in his Detroit Lions win total column. They may be the Packers' biggest obstacle, especially with the divisional detail.

As for the Packers themselves, I'm sold that Jordan Love is the guy. The supporting cast isn't littered with household names yet, but each receiver and tight end can execute their functions, which are all masterfully drawn up and customized by Matt LeFleur.

TL;DR - The Packers are ascending. The 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys will regress. Then we'll just need the Pack to simply be better than the AFC Champion for one day in February. Simple enough.

Round 4

The Pick: Nick Chubb to win Comeback Player of the Year (+1200, $500 bet)

I don't regret taking this bet. I do, however, regret not taking some more solid wagers in this range and waiting to nab Chubb for CPOY in the 7th or 8th round.

The NFL recently stated the criteria for Comeback Player of the Year. No longer will a player win the award simply for being bad the previous year. I call this the Joe Flacco Clause. They actually have to come back from something like a serious injury or illness now. How about that?

The table is set for a storybook comeback by Chubb. He's done it once before already; in 2015, his knee did all sorts of things that knees shouldn't do when Georgia was playing on Tennessee's cursed turf. He came back and was one of the best running backs in college football over the next two seasons.

Last year, Chubb's knee did similarly concerning things in Week 2 at Pittsburgh. He missed the remainder of the season and it's anyone's guess as to when Chubb will be back on the practice field. That said, Chubb expects a full recovery by this season and will play in 2024. That alone is remarkable. If he looks even 80% of his former self this year and plays in enough games, he will have a strong case to win CPOY.

The unknown regarding Chubb's timeline led to me reining in the bet amount to just $500, but the odds are good enough to make it more than worth it if he does ultimately cash this ticket.

Round 5

The Pick: Cleveland Browns to win the AFC North (+480, $500 Bet)

Ohio State and two Browns picks through five rounds? I'm disgusted with myself. That's fine, that's my usual state of being anyway.

For the Browns, it was 100% a bet on the number. I plugged the AFC North Odds into our betting odds calculator to find some probabilities. The best Ravens odds are +140, giving them a 41% implied probability. The Bengals are next up at +165 for a 37.7% implied probability. Then we get to the Browns, who have a 17% probability per the odds.

Now, are the Ravens and Bengals that many orders of magnitude better than the Browns? The Browns made the playoffs last year with the ghost of Joe Flacco at quarterback and an offensive line that was missing Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills for the bulk of the season. The defense was elite and brings most of its pieces back, headlined by Myles Garrett. The starting 22 on both sides of the ball is as strong as any in terms of overall depth of talent.

Unfortunately, it all falls on whether Deshaun Watson's shoulder(s) and whether he can tap back into his Houston Texans form. If he's as bad as he's been these first two years in Cleveland, then we're probably looking at a mediocre team that falls out of the playoff hunt by December. But if Watson is just solid, the rest of the team can take it from there.

The Ravens lost a ton from last year's roster and coaching staff. The Bengals are being coy about Joe Burrow's recovery from the wrist injury. Something's amiss here and the Browns are a strong value at this price.

For what it's worth, if you're in on the Browns to win the AFCN, their best odds are at DraftKings (+600).

Round 6

The Pick: Ja'Marr Chase for Offensive Player of the Year (+700, $1,000 bet)

I was surprised to see this one still available. Luckily for me, OPOY had barely been touched through the first five rounds as only Breece Hall (+2200) was taken by the time this round started. PrizePicks targeted Jonathan Taylor (+2500) earlier in the round and with the fear that this would start a run on that market, I had to pounce.

If you've listened to the RotoWire Fantasy Football podcast this offseason, you're aware that I think this is going to be an unbelievable season from Chase. The former LSU star has had 1,000 yards in each of his three NFL seasons, but I think his best is still yet to come. More specifically, that time is now.

Chase enters Year 4 as one of the best receivers in the league already. His numbers suffered late last season without Burrow, and in a way, that works to our advantage this season. For example, if Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey repeat what they did last year, it will feel ho-hum compared to a Chase year in which he erupts for top-tier production.

Long story short, if Joe Burrow is himself, this sets up as Chase's peak season. And Chase's peak is going to be OPOY-worthy.

Round 7

Caleb Williams for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+210, $1,000 bet)

Betting the favorite for a given award always feels -EV but at the same time, it all sets up nicely for Williams. You've heard it enough at this point, "no No.1 overall pick has ever been in a better situation." It's true though. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, a good offensive line, and an ascending defense make for a pretty cushy landing spot.

I think Williams has the talent to have won the award in a rockier environment, but in Chicago it's basically his award to lose. He'll have the starting job right away. He'll have the production (he's rightfully being drafted in the top ten rounds of best ball drafts according to our best ball ADP data). He'll have the chance to lead the Bears to a Wild Card spot.

This award isn't always a lock to go to a quarterback. But at the same time, it's clear that they get the tiebreaker when everything else is equal. Puka Nacua and Sam LaPorta were monsters last year and yet it was still C.J. Stroud at the end of the day.

The odds were also pretty appealing here; Williams was listed at +210 and right now, you can't get him at anything better than +150 at BetRivers or BetMGM per our Offensive Rookie of the Year odds page.

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Round 8

The Pick: North Carolina State to win the ACC (+700, $500 bet)

This is mostly a hedge against the "favorites" in the ACC. Per the ACC odds, Florida State (+290), Clemson (+400), and Miami (+450) lead the way. I don't believe in any of them. Louisville is next in line at +650 but I'm not buying that either.

Florida State going from a loadout of Jordan Travis, Trey Benson, Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, Jaheim Bell to D.J. Uiagalelei and a cavalcade of unproven weapons is a big step down. The 'Noles being +290 after the year they had last year is telling.

I think Clemson will continue their Nine Inch Nails era and stay on its Downward Spiral. I could see three ACC losses from the Tigers, including one to the 'Pack early on.

Miami is getting some buzz with the Cam Ward addition and a solid-looking group returning. With Miami, I'm just not going to believe it until I see it. It's there on paper, but that's often been the case with The U and it always seems to end with some inexplicable losses anyway.

NC State is like the Utah analog in the PAC-12 (RIP) or K-State in the Big 12 before Utah entered the fore. The 'Pack play a tough, hard-nosed brand of ball that always makes its conference foes uncomfortable. The defense is always one of the best in the conference if not the country and help is on the way on the other side of the ball.

The Robert Anae addition at OC was one of the best hires from this year's coaching carousel. He'll get to cook with Grayson McCall, who is in his fifteenth* year of college football. Kevin Concepcion is one of the best underclassmen receivers in the country and transfer RB Jordan Waters punched in 12 touchdowns on the ground for Duke last season.

The game at Clemson could make or break this bet, but I think NC State has the goods to get it done this year. I'm equally as confident in them as the other teams I've discussed, and I'm getting them at much better odds.

*unconfirmed. But he's been in college for a while.

Round 9

The Pick: Georgia Tech OVER 5.5 Wins (-110, $700 Bet)

A lot of my early bets pained me but no bet felt worse to put down than backing my hated Yellow Jackets. Ick.

I have to be objective, though. Georgia Tech is building something that is more Ramblin' than Wreck. I was in the house for their game against Georgia last season and Tech made it a very uncomfortable night for the Bulldog faithful.

The quarterback is solid with Haynes King back in the fold and Eric Singleton is yet another promising young receiver in the ACC. The defense is coming along. The schedule is navigable. In fact, I wouldn't be totally stunned if they upset Florida State in the opener while FSU works to get settled with so many new pieces.

Essentially, this is a "Do you think Tech makes a bowl this year?" bet. And I do. Sadly.

Round 10

The Pick: Jared Verse for Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1000, $675 Bet)

The DROY race is wide open this year. A defender wasn't taken in this year's draft until pick 15 with Indianapolis' selection of Laiatu Latu. That signals that there isn't a clear top dawg the way there has been in recent years when the likes of Will Anderson, Sauce Gardner, Micah Parsons and Chase Young were all taken in the Top 5.

Latu (+550) and Dallas Turner (+450) are priced as the favorites in the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds and that's all well and good, but the gap between them and Verse at 10/1 seems extreme when they went within five picks of each other.

Verse is going to step into a prominent role coming off the edge under a new defensive coordinator who will have to make things work without Aaron Donald collapsing the pocket every down.

It helps that Verse has the ability to go for double-digit sacks this year. Verse is athletic (4.58 40, 127-inch broad jump) with size to hold the edge (6-4, 254) and long levers to disengage blockers (33.5-inch arms). He had 9.0 sacks in each of his two seasons at Florida State in 12 and 13 games, respectively. Verse already showed he could level up without dropping off after starting his career at Albany before immediately starring at Florida State. He can do it again.

I have to give credit to my colleague, Mario Puig, for pointing me in Verse's direction for the DROY market.

Round 11

The Pick: Jim Harbaugh for Coach of the Year (+600, $500 Bet)

Coach of the Year almost always hinges on which coach can exceed low expectations. The Chargers are still getting some respect in Vegas with NFL win totals odds set at 8.5. Still, that puts them on the periphery of the playoff picture going into the season and a Wild Card berth would likely get Harbaugh some consideration for the award.

Harbaugh is a proven winner everywhere he's gone, including the NFL. He and Greg Roman, along with the offseason additions to bolster the trenches and run game, will create a more blue-collar team than we saw during the Brandon Staley era. It's not a pretty style, but it's a style that can win in today's league when everyone is so worried about going the other way.

For the record, I would have liked to make my Coach of the Year bet on Jerod Mayo at +2500 but he was snatched up by Vaughn Dalzell of NBC Sports Bet late in the 10th round. There's a much lower bar for him to clear and I think Mayo and Drake Maye will combine to turn things around in New England.

Round 12

The Pick: San Francisco 49ers UNDER 11.5 Wins (-110, $900 Bet)

I'm always leery of a team coming off of a Super Bowl loss. After such a long climb to get close to the mountain top only to come up short, there's some scar tissue there the next season.

On paper, it makes sense to have the 49ers as a Super Bowl contender and the favorites to win the NFC. The offensive core is back and it added Ricky Pearsall in the first round of the draft. I know there's mounting evidence to the contrary, but I'm still not entirely sold on Brock Purdy and I wonder if the other shoe is going to drop at some point this season. He had shaky moments last year but never stayed down for too long, to be fair.

The defense is a concern, too. The defensive line had so much depth last season that it could just do hockey-style line changes in the trenches to keep everyone fresh. Arik Armstead was a stalwart in the middle of the line, and now he's in Jacksonville. Clelin Ferrell, Randy Gregory, Javon Kinlaw, Chase Young and Sebastian Joseph-Day are all gone from that defensive line group last season as well.

Not having that depth luxury will put this 49ers defense to the test. It's worth noting that Dre Greenlaw is coming off of an Achilles injury in the Super Bowl, too.

Some regression on both sides of the ball along with a Super Bowl hangover would make it tough to get to 12 wins. I expect to be sweating this one out all year long, but I think the 49ers fall just short of the over.

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