IDP Analysis: Winfield Arrives

Here are some of the IDP player value shifts from the past week.

RISING

Alexander Johnson, (3-4) ILB, DEN

Not only did Denver cut 2019 tackle leader Todd Davis, but Davis' replacement – Mark Barron – is questionable or doubtful for Week 1. It's a setup for Johnson to pull away as Denver's top IDP following a quiet but convincing breakout season in 2019. Johnson played 743 defensive snaps in 2019, accumulating 93 tackles (51 solo), 1.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles. Based on Denver's current depth chart, Johnson will likely need to play closer to 1,000 snaps in 2020, all but guaranteeing a triple-digit tackle rate.

Antoine Winfield Jr., S, TB
Tampa Bay named Winfield one of its starting safeties, giving the rookie second-round pick the green light in most IDP formats. As much as it might be difficult to see tackle opportunities in the ground game with a stout front seven ahead of him, Winfield should see plenty of post-reception shots at ballcarriers. Winfield displayed his unique mult-category upside at Minnesota last year especially, as he totaled 88 tackles (3.5 for loss), three sacks, two forced fumbles and seven interceptions (one returned for TD) in 13 games.

Troy Reeder, MLB, LAR

With previously assumed starter Travin Howard done for the year with a torn meniscus, Reeder is listed as the starting inside linebacker next to lead linebacker Micah Kiser. Reeder had great pro day numbers out of Delaware last year and piled up tackles at a high rate (58 over 300 defensive snaps and 306 special teams snaps), but Pro Football Focus assigned him brutal play grades over his 170 run defense snaps, 124 coverage snaps and four pass-rush snaps. There could be IDP upside with Reeder if he makes the most of his upcoming opportunity, but he might need to raise his level of play to maintain his playing time.

Kenneth Murray, LB, LAC

Murray was a presumed starter once the Chargers selected him 23rd overall in the 2020 draft, but the Chargers' initial depth chart made it a bit more official by listing him with the starting defense next to Kyzir White and Denzel Perryman. White (coverage) and Perryman (run defense) are limited specialists who are probably restricted to part-time roles, so Drue Tranquill might play and/or produce more than either of White or Perryman even if he's playing off the bench. Murray in any case has the opportunity to emerge as an immediate IDP option after totaling 257 tackles (29.5 for loss) over his last 28 games at Oklahoma. As a top athlete on a defense that could spend plenty of time on the field, Murray has a lot of IDP upside as a rookie.

Nate Gerry, OLB, PHI

A converted college safety as a former fifth-round pick, Gerry could take up a three-down role going into his fourth season at linebacker this year. He was listed as a starter in Philadelphia's first depth chart, and the other two starting linebackers – T.J. Edwards and Duke Riley – might be liable to play part-time roles. Edwards might have coverage limitations and Riley might have run-defense limitations, leaving the two at platoon risk with the other. Gerry likely has the most plausible three-down role of the trio, and therefore the most IDP potential of the three in the meantime. Gerry notably flashed pass-rushing and coverage upside to this point in his career, with 2.5 sacks and three interceptions over his last 764 defensive snaps.

Jaleel Johnson, DT, MIN

Johnson is only likely to have IDP utility in deeper formats, but he's at least worth monitoring as a fill-in option as he heads into 2020 with his first starting role. Now 26 as a former fourth-round pick out of Iowa (2017), Johnson flashed useful production last year after posting less impressive numbers in his first two years. If he maintains the ground gained with last year's showing while stepping into a higher play count this year, then Johnson could yet emerge as a DL2 option in some formats. Johnson logged 410 snaps last year, finishing with 29 tackles (15 solo) and 3.5 sacks. If he were to maintain that production rate over 720 snaps as starter this year then it would project to roughly 51 tackles (26 solo) and six sacks.

 
 
FALLING

Von Miller, (3-4) OLB, DEN

Miller will unfortunately be out indefinitely following an ankle tendon injury Tuesday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Miller is one of the best defenders of recent decades and was on track for a renaissance year in an improving Denver defense, so the injury is especially cruelly-timed with him turning 32 in March. Jeremiah Attaochu will have to step up during Miller's absence.

Blake Cashman, (3-4) ILB, NYJ

Cashman appeared to be in the race to start at inside linebacker for the Jets this year, but going into Week 1 he's listed behind Avery Williamson on the Jets depth chart. Williamson is returning following an ACL tear last August after starting for the Jets in 2018. He finished that year with 120 tackles, three sacks and one interception on 1,115 snaps, making him an interesting IDP option if he is indeed ahead of Cashman. Neville Hewitt appears to be the true lead inside linebacker for the Jets at the moment, in any case.