Job Battles: August 17 Update

In addition to this week's update, you can click the links below to read the prior writings on the job battles around the league.

Detroit RBs, Washington RBs, and Philadelphia WRs
Indianapolis RBs, San Francisco RBs, and San Francisco WRs
Kansas City RBs, Washington WRs, and Atlanta WRs
Tampa Bay RBs, New England WRs, and Las Vegas WRs
Rams TEs, Pittsburgh RBs, and Atlanta RBs
Denver WRs, Tennessee TEs, and Philadelphia RBs
Buffalo RBs, Minnesota RBs, Detroit WRs
Kansas City WRs
Rams RBs
Miami RBs, Cleveland WRs
Jacksonville WRs, Seattle TEs
August 3: KC RB update, TB RB update, GB WRs, PHI WRs, DET WR update, WAS WR update
August 10: WAS RB update, LV WR update, PIT RBs update

San Francisco Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel (foot)
Brandon Aiyuk
Trent Taylor
Kendrick Bourne
Jauan Jennings
Tavon Austin
J.J. Nelson

Deebo Samuel is out with his broken foot and might miss some of the early San Francisco schedule, a complication that only became more serious in light of Jalen Hurd suffering a suspected ACL tear Sunday. Hurd is a former running back who was likely to pick up some of Samuel's after-the-catch tasks, but now the 49ers will be without both of them until further notice.

Brandon Aiyuk was locked into a three-down role as the Emmanuel Sanders replacement either way, so the first-round pick was in store for a busy year before Hurd or Samuel got hurt. With Hurd out, though, it's possible that the quality of Aiyuk's competition has lowered such that he'll increase his target share of the offense even as his snap count stays static. Speedy and outside-oriented, Aiyuk is where San Francisco has to take the ball if they want to move it downfield or on the sidelines.

In terms of replacing the Samuel/Hurd functions specifically, though, the 49ers are probably just down to Jauan Jennings, the rookie seventh-round pick out of Tennessee. Jennings registered truly awful workout numbers at the combine, logging a 4.72-second 40, 29-inch vertical, and 119-inch broad jump at 6-3, 215. Jennings was productive at Tennessee all the same, and it's because he's a bully on the field who bruises his way to yardage rather than running around defenders. If he can't imitate the YAC yardage the 49ers were hoping to get from Samuel and Hurd, then they might just need to call off the whole function altogether.

If the Deebo/Hurd function is gone, then it's more slack not just for Aiyuk but expected starting slot receiver Trent Taylor, who may well lead the 49ers receivers in receptions this year. Kendrick Bourne is still around too, but he projects as the swing wideout, backing up all the starting receivers and accumulating a healthy snap count just by taking the field when other receivers need breathers.

The free agent signings of Tavon Austin and J.J. Nelson offer additional possibilities, but both speedy receivers were unsigned for a reason. Austin's skill set just hasn't materialized in the NFL, and Nelson is prohibitively light at (a listed) 5-10, 160 pounds.

 
San Francisco Running Backs

Raheem Mostert
Tevin Coleman
Jerick McKinnon
Jeff Wilson
JaMycal Hasty
Salvon Ahmed

The only real update here is that Jerick McKinnon, knock on wood, has shown early promise in his return from the knee injury that robbed him of the last two years. There doesn't seem to be any resulting momentum for McKinnon to push for a starting role, but (A) that could change and (B) in the meantime he's already established himself as the clear favorite for passing-down work in the 49ers backfield. Even in an abbreviated role McKinnon's durability can't be taken for granted, but if his pre-injury speed and explosiveness are still intact then he could do considerable damage as a pass catcher, especially with the increasing slack on the 49ers passing game due to its injuries at wide receiver.

If McKinnon runs away with the pass-catching work in this backfield then it will be a significant constraining factor for Tevin Coleman and especially Raheem Mostert, given the much higher price in the latter case. As it otherwise looks for now, Mostert and Coleman are expected to fight over the vast majority of the carries. Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty and Salvon Ahmed are fighting for an RB4 role, which might come down primarily to special teams considerations.

 
Jets Tight Ends

Chris Herndon
Ryan Griffin

This one will be quick: there is no tight end competition with the Jets. Or at least, there isn't one between Chris Herndon, the unambiguous starter, and Ryan Griffin, one of the blocking tight ends battling for snaps behind Herndon. Rather than competing with Herndon, Griffin will battle the likes of Trevon Wesco and Daniel Brown.

Herndon's 2019 season was wiped out by a suspension and then an almost immediate season-ending injury upon his return, but his 2018 season was emphatically impressive for a rookie tight end. Herndon caught 39 of 56 targets for 502 yards and four touchdowns on 624 snaps that year, his age-22 season, which means he caught 69.6 percent of his targets at 9.0 yards per target in an offense that completed 57.1 percent of its passes at 6.5 yards per attempt. Herndon's deal was similar at Miami (FL) in college – showing up his teammates in the passing game but largely going overlooked because his teammates were at a level so much lower than him.

 
Tampa Bay Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski
O.J. Howard
Cameron Brate

Who knows whether there's anything to it, but NBC's Peter King predicted that O.J. Howard would lead the Buccaneers in tight end snaps in 2020. That prediction probably took Rob Gronkowski investors by surprise, because Gronkowski generally carries a TE1 price tag in 12-team leagues, going in the first 10 rounds. Not only that, but King suggested that Cameron Brate might play as many or more snaps as Gronkowski, too.

The Buccaneers traded a fourth-round pick to reel in Gronkowski from New England, so they presumably mean to make him a central piece of the offense's intended impact. One way to meet that condition while also limiting his snap counts would be to allocate a disproportionate number of his snaps toward situations like red-zone snaps, third-down snaps, hurry-up/catch-up situations, and so on. Particularly in the event that Tom Brady throws 30-plus touchdowns, there might be a way for Gronkowski to make his investors happy even if he ends up playing fewer snaps than they expected. Even if so, that's working with a razor-slim margin of error for Gronkowski, who at the very least is the most touchdown-dependent tight end going in the top 12 at the position.

If Gronkowski is getting a disproportionate share of the high-impact situations then it makes it that much trickier to chase Howard or Brate. Both of them are competent or better, but their targets are likely to be significantly less valuable than Gronk's. As much as Howard and his 4.51 speed pose a threat from long range, those half-court shots aren't traditionally the foundation of a reliable fantasy asset.