Job Battles: Making Room for Shenault

This Job Battles post will look at the non-DJ Chark Jacksonville wide receivers and the Seattle tight ends.

Jacksonville Wide Receivers (behind DJ Chark)

Laviska Shenault (225.29 NFFC, 202.95 BB10)
Dede Westbrook (209.71 NFFC, 196.46 BB10)
Chris Conley (288.07 NFFC, 239.48 BB10)
Keelan Cole (288.86 NFFC, N/A BB10)
Collin Johnson

DJ Chark is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver for the Jaguars, and after his breakout 2019 season the hope is that Chark can establish himself as one of the true alpha receivers league-wide, anchoring the Jaguars passing game volume on a major workload and propelling the Jaguars passing game with standout efficiency and explosiveness. Chark is definitely Jacksonville's best outside wide receiver, and his good play in the slot last year gives reason to believe he's also the team's best slot receiver. If so and if utilized accordingly, he should benefit from the best of Jacksonville's downfield opportunities and volume-padding underneath/intermediate targets both.

Even if Chark enjoys a mammoth season, though, the Jaguars will need other contributors to step up at receiver. There are a few interesting if not convincing candidates to take up certain tasks in certain volumes, and there might even be another standout fantasy option to emerge from the pack. If so, the most likely player to possess such upside might be Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville's 2020 second-round pick (42nd overall). Shenault (6-1, 227) is a unique prospect who draws a range of comparisons of varying merit, but the most recurring themes tend to single out his abilities as an after-the-catch threat, a notion supported by his 276 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground in his last 20 games. A quick glance at Shenault's Colorado film will sell the idea further – Shenault generally took short and intermediate targets before shiftily running through or around Pac-12 defensive backs. Shenault was otherwise monstrously productive as a receiver, turning 192 targets into 142 receptions for 1,775 yards and 10 touchdowns over the last two years (74.0 percent catch rate, 9.3 YPT). Not 22 until Oct. 5, Shenault's age-adjusted production at Colorado is about as good as it gets.

The Jaguars implied they'll make a special effort, using gadget functions if necessary, to get the ball to Shenault underneath, mentioning wildcat quarterback and h-back type functions among the considerations. Rather than the specific meaning of those terms, the more insightful takeaway might be the recurring them of underneath, open-field running scenarios.

Chark is locked in for his high-volume, often-downfield role at one receiver position, and Chris Conley was used as a downfield specialist at the other outside wide receiver position last year. Running from the slot, Dede Westbrook was the team's de facto lead receiver for underneath functions while Chark and Conley hogged the downfield shares of the passing game. If Chark and Conley continue to run downfield, then Shenault's theorized underneath functions would almost necessarily come at the expense of Westbrook. It would practically follow from there that Shenault would need to earn his reps at Westbrook's expense in the slot, where Westbrook's 7.0 ADOT (eighth percentile) rested safely short of those of Chark (11.9 yards, 62nd percentile) and Conley (14.3 yards, 84th percentile).

If the playing time is decided on merit, then there's reason to believe Shenault can displace Westbrook from the slot. With a 6-foot, 178-pound frame Westbrook is one of the skinniest receivers in the league, and his lack of density always projected as problematic playing in a high-traffic role like the one he's played the last two years. Drops have unsurprisingly been a consistent problem for Westbrook, who's liable to get ragdolled when he runs into the teeth of the defense. Westbrook arguably should have been used all along in the same role as Conley, stretching the field while playing mostly outside. That's how Westbrook was used at Oklahoma, where his sub-4.4 speed made him a uniquely dangerous downfield threat. The Jaguars choosing to invert his functions into that of an underneath specialist was always dubious at best, and the returns confirm this. In the 15 games Westbrook played last year he caught 66 of 101 targets for 660 yards and three touchdowns on 757 snaps (65.4 percent catch rate, 6.5 YPT) while the broader Jaguars passing game produced a baseline of 62.2 percent completed at 6.9 yards per attempt. According to Pro Football Focus, when Westbrook was targeted in the middle of the field at an intermediate or less depth last year he caught 32 of 44 targets for 263 yards (72.7 percent catch rate, 6.0 YPT) as opposed to 34 of 53 targets for 397 yards (64.2 percent catch rate, 7.5 YPT) when targeting the rest of the field. The 8.5 percent catch rate deficit is more than offset by the 1.5-yards-per-attempt surplus. Westbrook had better results over the middle in 2018, to be fair, but the point remains that Shenault specifically thrives in a part of the field where Westbrook has been only passingly decent the last two years.

Even if the Jaguars create room for Shenault by taking slot snaps away from Westbrook, there's a chance Westbrook could remain equally active by earning that many more snaps outside, likely at the expense of Conley. Conley was adequate in 2019, his elite speed and explosiveness making him a credible downfield decoy at all times while occasionally showing up with splash big plays. Playing 880 snaps, Conley drew 90 targets and caught 47 for 775 yards and five touchdowns (52.2 percent catch rate, 8.6 YPT). He'll likely remain at least adequate in this capacity, but if Shenault can displace Westbrook from the slot then Westbrook might provide the Jaguars with an upgrade over Conley on the outside. Westbrook has speed comparable to Conley, preserving the downfield decoy function, but Westbrook is almost certainly a better route runner and runner after the catch than Conley, who has always been more toolsy than productive due to skill set limitations. Considering Westbrook caught 80 receptions for 1,524 yards and 17 touchdowns his senior year at Oklahoma – 19.0 yards per catch – he's likely a plug-and-play option on the outside if the Jaguars choose to use him that way.

Chark-Shenault-Westbrook-Conley is already a deep group at receiver, but the Jaguars have more yet behind them. Although his arrow is pointed downward at this point, Keelan Cole remains a respectable receiver who has flashed starting upside in the past and otherwise is notable among Jaguars wideouts for his interchangeability between the slot and outside. Indeed, in addition to Shenault, Cole might be a second superior slot option for the Jaguars over Westbrook. The Jaguars placed a second-round restricted free agent tender on Cole this offseason, so they appear to value him as depth if nothing else.

The favorite for the WR6 role is likely rookie fifth-round pick Collin Johnson, who offers a fair amount of promise in his own right out of Texas. The concern with Johnson is that at 6-6, 222 he might be too skinny for how big of a target he is, leaving him vulnerable to the jam from shorter, stronger corners who can easily get their hands on Johnson's giraffe-like frame. When he's able to run free, though, it quickly becomes clear that he moves unusually well for someone of his build, and his wide receiver skill set otherwise appears polished. His most impressive college season was probably in 2017, when as a true sophomore (age ~20) he caught 54 of 100 targets for 765 yards (54 percent catch rate, 7.7 YPT) in an offense that only completed 59.7 percent of its passes at 6.7 YPA. Despite lacking the speed to consistently threaten downfield, 'graceful' is one of the first words that comes to mind when watching Johnson as a route runner, and his combination of reach and precision makes him an interesting red zone and sideline threat. For 2020, though, he'll likely remain a depth project for Jacksonville and might be at risk for healthy scratches.

To recap:

-Chark is alpha
-Shenault might be something close himself – Westbrook or Conley would have to pay if so
-Even if Westbrook loses in the slot, he might overtake Conley outside
-Cole can help in most areas if anyone struggles or gets hurt

Seattle Tight Ends

Greg Olsen (193.71 NFFC, 189.64 BB10)
Will Dissly (248.71 NFFC, 232.72 BB10)
Jacob Hollister (308.64 NFFC, N/A BB10)
Stephen Sullivan
Colby Parkinson

Despite losing most of the prior two years to foot troubles, Greg Olsen stayed healthy enough to play a three-down role at about 34.5 years old in 2019, logging 805 snaps in 14 games while missing two contests due to a concussion. In drawing 82 targets, catching 52 for 597 yards and two touchdowns (63.4 percent catch rate, 7.3 YPT), Olsen played quite well despite the modest volume. The Carolina passing game badly suffered under Kyle Allen, and Olsen was visibly frustrated at times in a way that he never displayed previously. Well, maybe he looked similarly frustrated during his years with the Bears, but who can remember. Last year's numbers were nonetheless a strong showing considering the Panthers completed 60.3 percent of their attempts at 6.5 YPA.

Now playing with the Seahawks on a one-year deal, Olsen is the favorite to open the year as Seattle's starting tight end. He's unlikely to be a workhorse in such a role, though, because the Seahawks still hopefully await the return of Will Dissly from his season-ending Achilles' tendon tear. Few players have been treated as cruelly with injury misfortune as Dissly, who already was last year attempting to return from a patellar tendon tear. Now he's suffered two of the most debilitating injuries known to football players, which casts a disheartening pall over a career where Dissly has otherwise been highly productive. Despite only playing tight end in the final two years of his Washington collegiate career, Dissly raced his way to 31 receptions for 418 yards and six touchdowns on just 41 NFL targets and 383 snaps in his first two NFL seasons (75.6 percent catch rate, 10.2 YPT). There's no precedent for what to expect of a player with Dissly's injury history, but his production all but compels the Seahawks to feature him if he's healthy enough to play.

One way Olsen and Dissly might coexist would be for the two to function slightly differently, namely for Olsen to play a disproportionate share of his snaps in the slot and running routes while Dissly – renown for his blocking abilities as a prospect – handles more of the traditional inline tight end reps. After logging 1,185 tight end snaps last year, the Seahawks could juice their tight end rep volume a bit by having Olsen take slot and wideout snaps that last year went to sub-replacement level receivers like Jaron Brown (379 snaps) and Malik Turner (248 snaps). There's a chance, basically, that Dissly could function as the lead true tight end, playing something like 600 to 700 snaps mostly inline, while Olsen functions as a pass-catching specialist at tight end and a backup to Tyler Lockett at slot receiver. It's easy to forget, but Olsen was a remarkable athlete out of Miami (FL), logging a 4.51 combine 40 at 6-6, 256. Phillip Dorsett and David Moore both primarily function outside, so if Olsen isn't the SlotWR2 for Seattle this year then it would almost necessarily be John Ursua, which is at once possible but unlikely.

Dissly and Olsen are both heightened injury risks, however, so the Seahawks can't take either for granted. That fact might have informed Seattle's choice to target the position in the offseason, placing a second-round restricted free agency tender on Jacob Hollister, who was overmatched in his team-leading 521 tight end snaps last year, as well as spending a fourth-round pick on Colby Parkinson out of Stanford and a seventh-round pick on Stephen Sullivan out of LSU. Parkinson (6-7, 252) is thought of as a potential jumpball specialist in the red zone, but he was inefficient in college and suffered a broken fifth metatarsal in his foot, which required surgical repair June 2 and has him on an uncertain timeline since. Sullivan (6-5, 248) was switched from receiver to tight end late in his LSU career and showed developmental athletic upside with a 4.66 40, 36.5-inch vertical, and 123-inch broad jump at the combine.

Given Parkinson's injury and Sullivan's ongoing conversion from receiver to tight end, we can probably assume Hollister will serve as Seattle's TE3 in 2020. One of Josh Allen's favorite targets at Wyoming, Hollister (6-4, 239) has a good pass-catching skill set but might lack the physical tools to thrive in a high-volume NFL role. More specifically, Hollister's light and thin frame leave him a bit vulnerable the more contact he has to withstand. Still, his strong collegiate production gives reason to think Hollister can produce better than he did as a third-year player in 2019, when he caught 41 of 59 targets for 349 yards and three touchdowns (69.5 percent catch rate, 5.9 YPT).