Job Battles: Quarterback Competitions

This article series will run through various competitions across the league for playing time and usage. This post will look at the quarterback struggles ongoing around the league, while upcoming articles will move around to the other positions.

The competitions are listed alphabetically for team location, and the players are listed in order of years in the NFL. A general verdict is issued at the end of each blurb.

Gardner Minshew vs. Aidan O'Connell, LV

Coach Antonio Pierce said O'Connell will "take the first snap" in the competition with Minshew, but there's nothing binding about that. It would be odd if Minshew had signed with the Raiders in free agency, and even odder yet if the Raiders had paid Minshew what they did (two-year, $25-million contract) if they wanted Minshew to be the backup. Then again, the Raiders likely understand that this is a rebuilding year and rather than winning much a more realistic goal would simply be the establishment of a Winning Culture, which of course the Raiders did not have before Pierce's ascent. Pierce might therefore be prepared to stand by O'Connell over Minshew if he truly believes O'Connell gives the Raiders more culturally than Minshew.

On the question of general ability, though, and certainly on the question of team investment, Minshew seems the one with more in his favor. Although O'Connell was a fourth-round pick in 2023 he probably shouldn't have been – O'Connell has no developmental upside because he's over-aged (26 on Sept. 1) and has no tools to speak of – and O'Connell's production at Purdue was otherwise defined by a lot of incompletions despite playing a checkdown style of quarterback. O'Connell may be a fine backup, but that's likely all he'll be.

Minshew, of course, should not be a starting NFL quarterback either. But whereas O'Connell might be an acceptable backup quarterback, Minshew has at least proven by now that he definitely is one. And as much as Minshew has similar limitations as a passer – namely, a total void of downfield ability – Minshew is much more mobile and is probably more capable of playing with urgency. O'Connell's only strength over Minshew is probably pocket poise – Minshew seems downright uncomfortable in the pocket – but it just isn't obvious what O'Connell's poise can amount to if he can't be counted on to hit easy targets.

Neither quarterback is likely to offer much fantasy utility outside of superflex or/and 2QB leagues. Pierce and the Raiders know neither of these guys can air it out much, so the offense will likely be defined by a run-heavy approach that tries to create playaction and bootleg looks to create easy YAC for Brock Bowers and to buy time for multi-move routes for Davante Adams.

Verdict: Minshew probably starts Week 1 and keeps the job as long as he avoids turnovers

Sam Darnold vs J.J. McCarthy, QB, MIN

The Vikings spent the 10th overall pick on McCarthy, so the question of McCarthy starting in Minnesota is one of 'when' rather than 'if.' The 'when' might still be an unsettled matter, however.

It's certainly true that the Vikings acquired Darnold before the draft as a cushion against the worst-case scenario, adding him at the time in case the Vikings managed to miss out on all of their viable quarterback targets in the first round. The Vikings won't be squinting or looking sideways to see any silver lining with Darnold throughout training camp. With that said, Darnold might be just good enough now to make this a close call for McCarthy, or even hold off McCarthy for much or most of the year.

McCarthy won't turn 22 until Jan. 20, and at Michigan he never operated an offense with much responsibility or exposure. The Michigan defense almost always prevented the possibility of forcing McCarthy to play catch-up against a lively pass rush, and the Michigan run game ensured that McCarthy was throwing against battered defenses without the luxury of sitting back against the pass. It's possible that the stress of the NFL game will require an adjustment period from McCarthy.

Meanwhile, it's worth remembering that Darnold has only started in bad offenses in the NFL. The Jets and Panthers weren't just some sort of bad – they were completely hopeless in a way that would tank most quarterbacks. Look at Baker Mayfield going from Carolina to Tampa Bay. When you switch the scene from one of the worst to a vaguely functional one, sometimes the quarterback all of a sudden looks vaguely functional, too. Throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison would by far be the easiest Darnold had ever had it in the NFL.

Of course, Darnold is probably not very good, and if he's decent as a starter for Minnesota it would only be due to the system carrying him. The hope in Minnesota is that McCarthy might amount to something more than that, and if Darnold stumbles at all in training camp or even the regular season it's easy to imagine the Vikings turning to McCarthy in a hurry. There's also the chance that McCarthy really is the truth and sort of just rises to the occasion in training camp – as much as McCarthy was sheltered in the Michigan offense, he never actually failed to any notable extent. It's possible that if McCarthy had faced greater tests he simply would have passed them.

Verdict: Tossup in the short-term, but McCarthy starts at the first sign of Darnold struggles, be it in training camp or the regular season

Jacoby Brissett vs. Drake Maye, QB, NE

The Patriots were lucky to get Maye with the third overall pick and they know it. They won't be looking for reasons to undermine him and favor Brissett instead. Still, Brissett is formidable competition, especially if the Patriots call a run-heavy offense.

New coach Jerod Mayo likely wants to instill a sense of identity and bring some stability to a New England offense that's been flailing in quicksand the last two years. Particularly given the mediocre New England route runners, bringing stability to the Patriots offense likely requires a run-heavy offense that plays a patient game and avoids shootouts. Brissett isn't the kind of quarterback to direct an air show, but if the Patriots have no shootout ambitions then Brissett's limitations might not materialize all that much on the field.

The long-term hope with Maye is that he can very much be the shootout-viable quarterback that more conventionally projects for playoff contention. He certainly has the tools to do it and certainly thrived as a max-usage quarterback at North Carolina, but the challenge for Maye in the meantime is to excel at the mundane details as much as Brissett does. Sometimes talented rookies aren't quite as polished on the Step 1 part of an assignment as a less-talented veteran, and the Patriots offense might not really have a Step 2 in 2024.

Verdict: Tossup for 2024. The Patriots figure to run an unambitious offense given their lack of pass-catching talent, and Brissett showed in Cleveland that he's a capable starter for an offense playing in its shell. The Patriots want to wage a war of attrition, slowly accumulating field positioning while tiring their opponent and avoiding turnovers. Maye should be adequate or better at conducting the same style of offense, but if the Patriots coaches fixate on the turnover question specifically then Maye could be the short-term loser despite his substantial promise for the long term. The Patriots might particularly favor Brissett if they lack confidence in their offensive line or/and pass catchers, because they'd rather Brissett take a beating than Maye.

Daniel Jones vs. Drew Lock, QB, NYG

This one appears pretty much settled. Lock is somewhat notable as far as backup quarterbacks go, but his presence with the Giants is more of an acknowledgment of Jones' return from his Week 9 ACL tear. They signed Lock not to truly compete with Jones, but more so just to hang around in case Jones' knee faces any complications from this point.

Verdict: Jones starts unless injury intervenes. Jones could theoretically get benched if he struggles, but when did that ever matter before?

Russell Wilson vs Justin Fields, QB, PIT

This competition seems more lively than the one with the Giants. Wilson is the safe favorite but Fields is certainly more interesting than Lock, and it's not as if Wilson deserves endless benefit of the doubt at this point.

Pete Carroll always knew, but the last two years made further clear that Wilson isn't varied enough as a passer to support a high-volume passing game. Wilson needs a stripped-down passing game that takes shelter in a high-volume run game, which draws the defense away from the sidelines and downfield, the two areas where Wilson remains quite effective as a passer.

As it turns out, Wilson's limitations don't really matter much to the Steelers. They don't want to throw the ball 35 times per game. If they could win throwing it 10 times instead, they would. In a two-tight end offense that gives upwards of 35 carries per game to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, Wilson's corner and downfield shots off playaction could be more than enough for the Steelers offense to get the job done. They're planning on a strong defense, too. The Steelers are serious about running a siege-style offense and if they stick with one Wilson might be able to lead them to a surprisingly strong record.

Then again, Wilson turns 36 in November and presumably can decline more than he already has. If Wilson struggles and complicates the Steelers' winning ambitions then they won't tolerate it for long. Fields himself likely needs a stripped-down passing game to thrive – he simply took too long getting to his third read in Chicago – but like Wilson, Fields is capable of surprisingly accurate passes when his preferred target is open.

Verdict: Wilson starts, but if his play declines from 2023 the Steelers are prepared to switch permanently to Fields.