Minnesota Vikings 2023 Betting Futures

NFL Futures: 2023 Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview

The Vikings were 13-4 last year. They were just one game behind the Eagles for the best record in the conference. This year, DraftKings Sportsbook has their win total at 8.5. With the books predicting them to see a five-game drop in wins, we need to decide if that is an under- or over-correction.

Team strengths

• Offensively, Minnesota has the ability to keep up with most opponents. Although their interior pass protection is below average, they get strong protection from their tackles, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill. And aside from a few implosion games each year, Kirk Cousins has played well in many shootouts over the years. In addition, he has one of the best receivers in the league with Justin Jefferson, and they should have depth with T.J. Hockenson, rookie Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn.
• They also have one of the better run defenses in the league despite losing Dalvin Tomlinson and Za'Darius Smith in the offseason. The only problem is that the NFL is a passing league, and if a great run defense isn't paired with a strong pass defense, it rarely matters as offenses choose to go with a pass-heavy approach.

Team Questions

• In past years, the Vikings had a very strong pass rush. However, Za'Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson are no longer with the team. It's also possible they let Danielle Hunter go before the season begins. But even if they hang onto Hunter, an aging Marcus Davenport is a significant dropoff from Smith on the opposite side.
• Another question mark is the rushing attack. In June, the team released Dalvin Cook. Even though Cook's underlying numbers showed that he was entering his decline phase, he was still significantly better than their other RBs on the roster. His immediate replacement, Alexander Mattison, looked good in his first two seasons, but was not as effective the past two years. As a result, Minnesota could have a below-average rushing attack despite an excellent run-blocking line.

Team Weakness

• The NFL is a passing league. If there is an area to be weak, the defensive secondary is not the place to struggle.  Aside from Byron Murphy, who is an average cover cornerback, the Vikings could have one of the worst coverage groups in the league. Any team that chooses to attack them through the air may face little resistance. 

The Bottom Line

• On offense, Minnesota may be a one-dimensional (passing) offense that is not an elite unit. On defense, their weak coverage may mean that no lead is safe and that they could be in the mix for giving up the most points in the NFL. They will likely be no better than .500 in shootouts while there could be a number of games in which they are soundly defeated.

The Schedule

• In terms of inter-conference play, facing the AFC West is a suboptimal draw for the Vikings. They also have games against the Eagles, 49ers and Bengals. 

Best Bet

With the flaws they have on their roster along with a challenging schedule, there is a strong probability that Minnesota finishes under .500. Betting them to win fewer than 8.5 games at -110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook is the recommended bet.