Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Los Angeles Rams vs. Miami Dolphins

The 4-4 Rams have struggled through injury this year but remain in the hunt for the division lead of the NFC West, where the 6-4 beatable Cardinals currently lead. The 2-6 Dolphins don't realistically have much playoff hope at this point, but just getting their offense back on track with Tua Tagovailoa would be a victory worth pursuing, and no doubt they'd love an actual victory to come along with it. With this game set in Los Angeles the Rams are favored by only 2.5 points, with the over/under at 49.0.

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa ($9200 DK, $12000 FD) has had an absolutely brutal year, but this matchup is accommodating enough that he should be able to get a bit back onto track here, especially if Tyreek Hill can play effectively through his wrist issue. The Rams secondary is in a clear state of rebuilding and isn't even ostensibly supposed to be able to hold up against above-average NFL passing games. If Hill is limited or out, though, then the precious margins get pressed a little more.

Matthew Stafford ($8600 DK, $12500 FD) has been highly effective the last two weeks, and it would make sense if he maintained momentum now that he has both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy. The Dolphins actually feature two tough corner matchups for those two, but when the Rams offense is really rolling they can hold serve even against tough defenses. It's difficult to see why Stafford should disappoint here, though just the same it's worth noting he has only one game with multiple touchdowns and no games with both 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.

RUNNING BACK

De'Von Achane ($9400 DK, $11000 FD) is a tough fade at the moment, not just because he's a singularly explosive running back, but because the last two weeks Achane has picked up a great deal of pass-catching work, drawing 16 targets in addition to 22 carries. If the Dolphins ever get their wideout duo going it might need to occur somewhat at the expense of Achane's recent receiving production, but the Dolphins would no doubt prefer to make both happen. Raheem Mostert ($7400 DK, $10000 FD) isn't on Achane's level but remains serviceable in his own right, to the point that it's not inconceivable to cash a lineup with both Achane and Mostert. In general they are difficult to budget together, though, and this game has no shortage of potential fantasy factors. Mostert's only edge on Achane is maybe in goal-line situations, but even that isn't a given and even Jaylen Wright ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) played nine snaps last week while Mostert only played 14.

Whereas the Dolphins backfield spreads the work around a bit, the Rams only give the ball to Kyren Williams ($10800 DK, $15500 FD). It's not clear why they do this, especially when Williams is as inefficient as he is (3.6 yards per carry, 4.7 yards per target) following the third-round selection of Blake Corum, but Williams' usage does not seem to be pending the satisfaction of any particular standard, and so if his playing time is immune to accountability then in this game too he should be extremely busy from scrimmage, including in scoring situations. Ronnie Rivers is a capable RB3 who, like Corum, is for some reason not allowed to play despite doing well when he does.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Tyreek Hill ($10000 DK, $14000 FD) is normally just about impossible to fade on a single-game slate, and this game too could very well be one of his biggest against a Rams secondary that simply isn't built to cover wideouts anywhere near this caliber. But Hill's Friday wrist injury makes things more confusing, even if Hill is declared active. If Hill's wrist holds him back at all then the difference might get made up by Jaylen Waddle ($6600 DK, $9500 FD), even though Waddle has struggled lately and for most of 2024. Waddle is clearly a very good receiver despite whatever else might be going on with the Dolphins, and these Rams corners can't cover him. Tight end Julian Hill ($800 DK, $5000 FD) is back, which actually makes the Miami offense worse, but Mike McDaniel loves the guy for some reason. Hill has a way of taking playing time from Jonnu Smith ($4400 DK, $8000 FD), though perhaps by now McDaniel sees that Smith should never be on the bench. Like Hill, Durham Smythe can play starter-level snaps but as a blocking specialist is unlikely to offer production from scrimmage. Odell Beckham ($2700 DK, $7500 FD) caught three passes for 15 yards last week, but Malik Washington ($2000 DK, $6000 FD) still played more snaps.

Puka Nacua ($9000 DK, $13500 FD) and Cooper Kupp ($9800 DK, $15000 FD) are at once difficult single-game fades and yet difficult single-game picks to budget at the same time. Either player is capable of a big, slate-breaking performance yet they're both expensive. For what it's worth, if the recent alignment splits hold Nacua should mostly see Kendall Fuller and Kupp should mostly see Jalen Ramsey. Both corners are good, so there's no obvious lean on that basis. Things might come mostly down to chance and game-plan quirks. Demarcus Robinson ($5600 DK, $8000 FD) is on a hot streak but so long as Nacua and Kupp are on the field defenses quite simply can't afford to pay much attention to Robinson, who otherwise does his job by staying where he's supposed to be for when Stafford needs to roll his way. Colby Parkinson ($3400 DK, $7000 FD) is a three-down player and major real-life contributor to the Rams, but his fantasy presence is rather modest (23 catches for 214 yards on the year), and both Hunter Long and Davis Allen have poached some snaps lately at tight end. Tutu Atwell can be productive at receiver but has seen his snap count mostly disappear whenever Kupp, Nacua and Robinson are all active.

KICKER

Joshua Karty ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) has done a decent job as a rookie, making 11 of 13 field goal attempts, but he hasn't demonstrated much range (one attempt from beyond 50 yards) and the Rams haven't give him many opportunities in general – Karty has only one double-digit fantasy outing so far. The conventional projected game script here should be totally viable, though.

Jason Sanders ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) is the more proven veteran of the two kickers, and although Sanders' accuracy sometimes could be better he generally sees more kicking opportunities than Karty. Six of Sanders' 18 field goal attempts occurred from beyond 50 yards, too, likely indicating greater fantasy upside than in Karty's case.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

This might not be the game where rostering a defense is worthwhile. The Rams ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) just do not have a great group of personnel at this point in their rebuilding process, and though the Miami offense has disappointed guys like Tagovailoa, Hill and Waddle won't stay down forever. If the Rams defense comes through here it will need to be on the strength of its front seven, where the rookie Florida State duo of Braden Fiske and Jared Verse has made some noise lately.

Miami ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) has a potentially overmatched defense in its own right, as its run defense has been poor all season and Sean McVay has a way of making any defense look worse. Particularly now that they have both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua available, the Rams offense looks tough.