Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Patriots vs. Jets

After giving out a few jabs last week about what felt like the 10,000th island game this season with at least one NFC East team , we're treated to a traditional AFC East battle Monday night as the winless Jets host the 2-5 Patriots. There is little argument about the Jets being the worst team in the NFL, as their 94 points scored are by far the lowest in the league, and their 238 points allowed are the third-most in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Patriots' 136 points are the second-fewest in the league, and the difference between the Jets and Patriots is almost the same as the difference between the Patriots and the Broncos, who have the third-fewest in the conference, and that's after scoring 58 in the past two games.

The Patriots have greatly struggled as well, scoring fewer than 13 points in four of their last five games, but to nail down that they're still viewed as significantly better than the Jets, they are 10.0-point road favorites in a game with a Week-9-low 41.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook.

QUARTERBACKS

One of the reasons the Jets are big underdogs at home is because starting quarterback Sam Darnold ($10,800 DK, $15,000 FD) is not expected to play after aggravating a shoulder injury that has hampered him since he suffered it in Week 4, coincidentally, the highest-scoring game of the season for the Jets. In his stead, Joe Flacco ($9,400 DK, $12,500 FD) will be under center, which has moved the line at least 3.0 points in favor of the Patriots.

Flacco was pretty awful in his two starts in Weeks 5 and 6, combining to complete 39-of-77 passes for 381 yards and one touchdown. A 50.6 percent completion rate is pretty bad, but it's even worse when you consider Flacco had just a 4.9 YPA in those starts, the lowest YPA of any quarterback this season with as many pass attempts as Flacco. The matchup also doesn't get much worse, as the Patriots have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, including zero passing touchdowns in each of the past three games, a span that also saw them hold two quarterbacks under 190 passing yards. You could dig a little deeper into it and consider who they've faced, but does that really matter when you're using it to make an argument for Flacco?

The quarterback situation couldn't be much different for the Patriots even though Cam Newton ($13,200 DK, $17,000 FD) has thrown for more than 175 passing yards just once in six starts this season, which came against the Seahawks in Week 2 when he finished with 397. Newton's lack of passing yards isn't as detrimental as it is for Flacco because he's rushed for at least 47 yards four times while scoring six rushing touchdowns. It also doesn't hurt that the Jets have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, including more than 300 passing yards in three of the past four games. Given the lack of overall talent in this game, Newton figures to be very popular despite being the most-expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he is also likely to be an extremely popular captain/MVP because he can score lots of fantasy points even without his receivers doing well.

PASS CATCHERS

The Patriots' wide receivers and tight ends have been a joke this season in terms of how they're basically unknown to most people, and nothing captures that more than the fact that three players are tied for the team lead with 21 receptions, which is tied for 113th in the NFL. Yes, 112 players have had more receptions than any Patriot this season. Making matters worse, Julian Edelman is one of the team leaders, and he is on injured reserve because of a knee injury. Joining him are wide receiver Damiere Byrd ($6,800 DK, $9,000 FD) and running back James White ($6,400 DK, $10,500 FD), who have combined for seven catches on 11 targets for 94 yards in the past two games.

It's really tough to get excited about the Patriots' pass catchers because the offense just doesn't involve them that much. Jakobi Meyers ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD) has been the most consistent receiver for them lately, catching four of six targets for 60 yards in Week 7 and six of 10 for 58 in Week 8, with both receiving totals leading the team. Those marks were the seventh and eighth-most receiving yards for any Patriots player this season, and the top three happened back in Week 2. Only one time has a Patriot had over 80 receiving yards this season (Edelman had 179 in Week 2), and while that doesn't mean we won't have one Monday night against the Jets dreadful defense, it's tough to get excited. Meyers could definitely be the most popular because he seems to have Newton's eye lately, with Byrd and White likely the next possibilities, as N'Keal Harry is out with a concussion. Byrd leads the team with 398 air yards, helping him to a team-high 12.4 aDOT, though Meyers isn't that far behind at 11.8, though with only 17 targets, his 201 air yards are pretty far back.

And if you're thinking that maybe the tight ends get used a lot because the wide receivers don't, well, nope. Ryan Izzo ($1,400 DK, $5,500 FD) is at the top of the depth chart, and while he's the most active player at the position for New England, he's only caught nine of 15 targets for 114 yards. Oh, and he's questionable to play because of a hamstring injury while his backup, Dalton Keene ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), is also questionable because of a knee injury, though he didn't even travel for the game with the rest of the team. Needless to say, you can take your shots with the Patriots' pass catchers, but the Patriots don't seem likely to take many shots themselves.

Jamison Crowder ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD) will be the most expensive active Jet on both sites if Darnold is ruled out, though we can't ignore that Crowder himself is questionable to play because of a groin injury. He has been the lone bright spot for the Jets this season, as he comes in with double-digit targets and at least seven catches in every game he's played. Unfortunately for the Jets, he's only played four games because of multiple injuries, but at least he produces when he plays, racking up more than 100 yards three times and scoring in two games.

The Jets will actually have their top three receivers for the first time all year if Crowder is healthy enough to play, as Breshad Perriman ($4,200 DK, $7,000 FD) and Denzel Mims ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD) are finally healthy themselves after missing time with concussion and hamstring issues, respectively. And while you might want to get excited about that, we have to remember that it's likely Flacco who is throwing their ways. That's not to say that can't be useful contributors, especially with how much the Jets are likely to have to throw while playing catch-up. Perriman could be a solid differential since more people are likely to be focusing on Mims, including potentially as captain if they can get some garbage time production out of him, while Crowder is just Mr. Consistency.

Crowder, Perriman and Mims being active makes it tough to think we'll get much out of Braxton Berrios ($5,400 DK, $8,500 FD) and Jeff Smith ($1,000 DK, $6,500 FD), who were serviceable while filling in for the group ahead of them on the depth chart, but there doesn't seem to be reasonable paths for them to produce unless someone suffers another injury. And if you really want to go nuts, tight end Chris Herndon ($1,600 DK, $5,500 FD) has been the Jets' biggest disappointment this season and has caught just one pass on three targets in the past three games. There are other guys on the depth chart, but no one else should be in the player pool for those who make only a few lineups, and even those who MME probably aren't looking much further.

RUNNING BACKS

It's tough to be optimistic about the Patriots' running backs because Newton leads the team in rushing attempts (59), rushing yards (298), rushing touchdowns (six), red-zone attempts (17), attempts inside the 10-yard line (12) and inside the five-yard line (eight). And in classic Patriots fashion, they don't have a traditional bell cow or even one close, though Damien Harris ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD) has been getting the most carries of late.  Of course, he's questionable because of an ankle injury, though it seems likely that he will play. He is coming off his best game of the season, rushing 16 times for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Bills, his second game with at least 100 (he had exactly 100 in his season debut against the Chiefs in Week 4), but we have to recognize that he's really not getting that many opportunities. Adding in that he has two targets this season and we can see that his volume upside is limited. The good thing is that we generally know he's getting the ball when he's on the field, as he has 51 total rushing attempts and targets while only playing 65 offensive snaps.

Clouding the situation further is that Sony Michel ($2,200 DK, $7,500 FD) could be activated from injured reserve after recovering from a quad injury and returning to practice a few days ago. Michel was pretty poor in the first two games of the season but then rushed nine times for 117 yards while catching two passes on two targets for 23 receiving yards against the Raiders in Week 3 before suffering the injury. The expectation can't be that he fully takes over the backfield if he is activated Monday, but any touches that Michel gets means less for Harris. Rex Burkhead ($4,600 DK, $10,000 FD) is also still around, though he's mostly been playing third fiddle behind Harris and White; adding Michel to the mix only pushes him further down. The Jets defense hasn't been great against the run, though they are better against it than the pass, but the very crowded backfield makes it really tough to center on one guy for those who make only a handful (or one) lineups. Avoiding the situation is also possible through Newton, which is why he figures to be very popular.

The Jets' backfield is about as brutal as it comes, with La'Mical Perine ($5,800 DK, $9,500 FD) and Frank Gore ($2,800 DK, $7,500 FD) battling for opportunities, with Ty Johnson ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) picking up whatever is left over. Perine was seven years old when Gore was drafted, and you'd assume that the Jets would want to see what the 22-year-old could do after losing eight consecutive games. However, coach Adam Gase seems to have different ideas, as Gore continues to get equal looks. Johnson, 23, should also presumably get the ball a few times to show what he can do, but there hasn't been much to indicate he'll get those.

The positive is that the Patriots have allowed at least 127 rushing yards to running backs in each of the past three games; the negative is that they also lost all those games handily, so the 31, 33 and 28 rushing attempts help explain the volume. That kind of backfield usage seems unlikely for the Jets because they are 10.0-point underdogs, so any potential edge someone might see that Perine or Johnson could get a big workload is thrown out because the Jets are unlikely to be close enough to justify their usage.

Captaining/MVPing any running back from this game seems like a strategy for those who adore chaos, as that seems like the only outcome needed where one of them has the type of explosive game you usually need to win large-field GPPs. And from a flex perspective, Harris is likely to be the most popular, but even then it's tough to get overly fired up about his upside.

KICKERS

Adding to the ridiculousness of this game, Patriots kicker Nick Folk ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) is questionable because of a back injury, and if he's unable to play then Justin Rohrwasser is expected to be called up from the practice squad. Rohrwasser isn't in the DraftKings or FanDuel player pool, so if he does have to play then we just have to expect him to be the highest-scoring player in an 18-3 game. Folk, who played for the Jets from 2010 through 2016, scored at least 7.0 fantasy points in four of his last five games, a span that amazingly included only two PATs in the last two. However, as a significant favorite Monday night, he's likely to get more work than we've seen.

The Jets have a kicker issue too, as Sam Ficken ($3,400 DK, $8,000 FD) is doubtful because of a groin injury, which means Sergio Castillo ($3,400 DK) is expected to start. Castillo is not in the FanDuel player pool despite playing in each of the past two games, including hitting three of four field goals last week against the Chiefs (one was from 55 yards), and given the Jets' lack of touchdown success, he could be busy if they can move the ball down field but not punch it in. With a lower-scoring game expected, both kickers should certainly be in the cash and GPP conversation, but the grossness of this game would only be solidified if Rohrwasser and Castillo were the starters and highest-scoring players while being unavailable on FanDuel and only half available on DraftKings.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

When you're facing the worst offensive in the NFL, your defense gets pushed up in price, as the Patriots ($7,400 DK) are the fifth-most expensive active "player" on DraftKings, and yet they could be very popular, both as captain and flex plays. While we don't usually take points scored into account for choosing fantasy defenses, you may as well do it Monday because the Patriots are facing an offense that scored 10, zero, 10 and nine points in their last four games, respectively. It's also worth noting that Darnold was sacked 19 times in six games (only nine quarterbacks have been sacked more this season and they've all played more games), and while he isn't starting, it more goes to show how much the offensive line has struggled in protecting him (Flacco has been sacked five times in two starts).

The Jets offense has partially hidden how bad the defense ($4,000 DK) has been this season, and it's tough to see them being popular Monday night, even against a struggling Patriots. People who make a ton of lineups to play into the variance of the NFL will surely have them in the player pool because a random fumble or tipped interception could turn into a touchdown, but it's unlikely to be a popular move.