NFFC RotoWire Online Championship Review

Written by

Published on August 8, 2024

Fantasy Football Draft Analysis: Joe Bartel's NFFC RotoWire Online Championship

Friday saw my entry into the $250K grand prize, 12-team PPR contest otherwise known as the NFFC RotoWire Online Championship. Besides passing touchdowns rewarding six points, the scoring format is a standard full-point PPR. Last year was another relatively unsuccessful one, but I'm hoping to turn things around this time.

Here are the results of my draft. There are still 2,700 total spots remaining in this contest, so if you're interested in competing for the overall top prize, make sure to check out the NFFC.

Draft Results

Draft Picks

1.9 - WR A.J. Brown

For the third consecutive year, I was less than pleased with my draft slot. NFFC allows you to rank where you'd like to pick (the term is called KDS) and while in the previous two years I've gotten my literal least preferred spot, getting only my "fourth worst" draft slot didn't make me feel much better.

I think there's a monumental advantage in picking either 7th or 8th as I believe there's a sizable difference between the players available at that tier (the top RBs, Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown) and what's left directly after. I also think you can typically capitalize on the end of a tier in that second-round range, although admittedly my preferred selection, Chris Olave, provided Drake London doesn't fall, has lost a bit of luster due to the lack of optimism coming from New Orleans to date.

I mention all of this because while I think A.J. Brown is watching-paint-dry level of boring in terms of first-round selections, it's just the status quo when it comes to the back end of the first-round options. My plan initially was to take Garrett Wilson and truthfully I do think he'll outproduce Brown over the course of a 17-game season, but my SiriusXM co-host Mario Puig talked me out of going the Jets route during our show because he also selected Wilson in his NFFC championship a month ago at No. 10. Something catastrophic would have to occur for Brown to be a "bad" selection at this spot even if I think it's possible he's viewed more as top-20 guy in next year's drafts.

2.4 - WR Drake London

I'm always trying to learn from my past failures in this competition. Typically, I've nailed the first couple of rounds in a draft, but haven't built up enough WR/flex cache to properly prepare for injuries or ineffective play in a given campaign. This year, my plan was go aggressively heavy at wide receiver early on, which in theory will provide a safe floor until I correctly identify which combination of ho-hum RB dart throws make my lineup week to week. I'm a bit concerned that this range for London is just automatically assuming he'll operate as the team's main pass catcher with Kirk Cousins now in town and an offense as a whole that actually wants to utilize its best players (sneering directly at you, Arthur Smith). There's obvious pitfalls in that sorta assumption, but I think we also witnessed the "worst" case scenarios for London each of the past two years, and he was a quality enough WR2 even in that wasteland of mediocracy.

3.4 - WR DJ Moore

This was the first real decision I had to make. I really thought about picking Cooper Kupp, who provided he stays healthy should easily surpass this ADP. Of course, Kupp's health concerns are the exact reason why he's falling typically to this range across all draft platforms, and knowing that waiver wire fill ins are few and far between, I chickened out.

Brandon Aiyuk was also in consideration, but given the trade uncertainty and frankly, my selection of the star wideout in another prominent league, the Scott Fish Bowl, I didn't want to hold my breathe and assume everything would work. Listeners of my work on the RotoWire podcast network know that I'm always eager to pick new Packers running back Josh Jacobs whenever I can, but I was perhaps a bit greedy and was hoping news regarding his hardly-serious groin injury could have him fall somewhat in the ADP.

Thus I stuck to my initial guns and went wide receiver again. I think the reservations regarding Caleb Williams' prospects as an NFL QB are unwarranted, but if there's a wide receiver that "could" drop off to due lack of connection, injuries or otherwise, 32-year-old Keenan Allen seems like a far more likely victim than Moore, who broke out in a massive way in 2024. It's hard to imagine Moore being featured to the extent he was last season, and 96 catches on 136 targets, especially from Justin Fields, is a surprisingly effective catch rate that feels unrealistic to duplicate, but it's clear the 27-year-old is one of the more electric playmakers in the league. Maybe weather or just general Bears malaise makes the passing attack less reliable than other NFL offenses, but Moore should be as bulletproof as there is in whatever scenario you could concoct.

4.9 - RB Joe Mixon

It was almost eerie how the draft was mapping out exactly how I imagined it would. I felt confident that I would take a running back in the fourth round, and while I was hoping (ambitiously so) that Jacobs would fall here, Mario Puig had braced me for this exact outcome on Friday's show, so Mixon was an obvious pivot.

I've had some bad luck with this archetype of running back in years past. You know, the guy that we can confidently project to produce 900+ rushing yards, dabble in the passing attack and quietly score seven-plus touchdowns. The only problem is that if that sort of running back was as written in pen as the assumption goes, they'd be more like a top-24 selection as opposed to top-48.

The Texans were aggressive this offseason providing pieces to build around C.J. Stroud while he is still under his rookie contract, and while I can applaud that as a casual observer of the team, it's also fair to point out that those kinds of moves hardly work out the way a team wishcasts.

Mixon played in every game over the course of the season for just the third time in his career and enters his age 28-season already with a soft-tissue injury that will keep him out multiple weeks of the preseason. There's really not a whole lot behind Mixon on the depth chart so he should play, and play plenty when he's eventually healthy. But the burden of heavy volume isn't exactly comforting knowing Mixon's well-documented injury history.

5.4 - TE Mark Andrews

This is probably my least-favorite range of the entire draft. I'm out on both Rachaad White and James Cook this year, but in hindsight maybe I should have went with one of the two backs over Mark Andrews. The veteran tight end felt like the end of a tier for me and I've put an emphasis on acquiring an elite tight end in these high-stakes leagues in past years, but the prospect of getting Dalton Kincaid a full round later makes this pick a bit more frustrating in hindsight.

Taking Andrews also meant forcing myself to take a backup tight end in Isaiah Likely later in the draft. That might not be so consequential now, but it did end up costing me Rashod Bateman, who will likely be one of my most rostered players by the end of draft season.

6.9 - WR Jayden Reed

I was hoping C.J. Stroud would fall to me, but I actually think I prefer how this draft shaped out with Jayden Reed in the sixth round instead. So many of the wide receivers after Reed are guys that you could project to be the team's top option, but for one reason or another, have a cap on their upside in that position.

Reed could be the team's No. 1 target, already provided to be a weapon as a scorer, and more importantly feels like a really safe floor play even with all the obvious upside mixed in. Despite Green Bay's excellent depth at wide receiver, I don't think there's any scenario that sees Dontayvion Wicks or Bo Melton push Reed off the field provided everyone is healthy.

7.4 - RB D'Andre Swift

James Conner would have been my preferred running back, especially knowing I could get his handcuff in Trey Benson three rounds later, but that would have made for an uncomfortable roster build with Isaiah Likely already penciled in as a handcuff for Mark Andrews.

I'm not exactly sold on Swift being a three-down back in Chicago despite his contract. General manager Ryan Poles may be inclined to use his sway to ensure 2023 fourth-rounder Roschon Johnson has a role. Still, Swift profiles as the best pass-catcher in this backfield and that matters greatly in this format.

8.9 - QB Jordan Love

For those of you who aren't familiar, I'm a diehard Packers fan. I'm also one of those neurotic diehard fans who is convinced that using their favorite team's quarterback in fantasy is akin to walking under 100 ladders followed up by shattering 50 mirrors. You're spitting in the face of the football gods by assuming you can enjoy both your fantasy season and your real-life NFL season.

That works for lucky people, not me. That being said, ON PAPER this was the correct call in a league that rewards six points per passing touchdown. For the record (fantasy gods, you better be listening) I do think Brock Purdy would have been a completely fine selection and that he fell, inexplicably, a full three rounds later, makes me envious of that bargain

Still, I already had Jayden Reed on the team and was hoping to sneak Romeo Doubs onto the roster later in the draft. It's entirely possible Jordan Love turns back into a pumpkin after a magical 10 games last season, in which case I'll admit fault to all of Packers nation. But for now, there's been nothing but glowing reports from Love at training camp and as detailed above with Reed, the plethora of weapons in Green Bay should allow head coach Matt LaFleur to be a creative offensive wizard once again.

9.4 - RB Najee Harris

I ended up waiting until the final moments of the clock last round debating whether I should take Love, who felt like the end of the quarterback tier for me, or add Harris to an uneven RB group for me, so I was ecstatic that he fell despite four other backs getting drafted in that time span.

I think it's really curious that Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears and Jaylen Warren were all selected before a guy that's almost touched the ball over 1,000 times in his three seasons to date. Yes, Harris isn't explosive or doesn't have the sexy upside as some of these backs in this range, but we know he's going to average close to four yards a carry, we know that he can produce as a pass catcher and more importantly, we know Arthur Smith will LOVE using him.

10.9 - WR Joshua Palmer

I'm increasingly nervous that this whole Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman partnership is going to be miserable, but I'll confess that as an ardent Justin Herbert supporter, his latest injury, plantar fascia in his right foot, is about the worst-case outcome one could hope for if you wanted Herbert to prove the naysayers wrong.

I happen to like Ladd McConkey a lot after John McKechnie and Mario Puig talked up the Georgia product ad nauseum prior to his exceptional NFL Combine showing, but I don't think he's significantly different in Year 1 production than Palmer, who you can get substantially later.

Palmer also has a significant rapport with the Pro Bowl slinger, and I expect a baseline of 70 catches, 800 yards, four touchdowns can be sustained even in what figures to be a run-heavy offense.

11.4 - RB Chuba Hubbard

It was reported shortly after my draft that Jonathon Brooks likely wouldn't make his first NFL appearance until Week 4 as the Panthers are expected to place him on the regular season PUP list given the rookie is working back from a torn ACL in November.

I'm not confident Hubbard is anything better than a poor man's Zamir White, but a full month as the primary back in a system that wants to tote the rock is better than a couple of backs taken before that are strictly backups until the starter gets injured.

12.9 - QB Tua Tagovailoa

I got a little nervous here that I'd miss out on the backup quarterback run, which matters because I believe I 100 percent cursed my favorite team upon selecting Jordan Love. Hopefully this doesn't happen, but unlike most quarterbacks, if Tua Tagovailoa were to get injured again, it's obvious how the team would handle the situation, meaning it's a rare instance where I have a pseudo top-12 fantasy option week to week without the penalty of having to roster said player if he suffers a concussion/injury. It's a best of both worlds situation in a macabre sort of way.

13.4 - WR Gabe Davis

In hindsight, I just should have taken Rashod Bateman here, who I like infinitely more than Davis. It would have been way earlier than his ADP, but would anyone be all that surprised if the former first-round pick finally turns it around after getting healthy, especially over a miscast speed merchant who goes to a dysfunctional, and overfull, offense in Jacksonville?

14.9 - TE Isaiah Likely

Mentioned before, but this might be one of the rare instances in fantasy history where it's important to roster a fantasy handcuff that's not a running back.

15.4 - RB Audric Estime

Given this is such an early draft relative to draft season, I'm happy to make a dart throw on Estime, who could possibly push for starting time thanks to the hubris of head coach Sean Payton. I don't think the Notre Dame product is better than even an 85 percent Javonte Williams, but I am convinced Payton is just trying to set the stage for another bad Netflix Kevin James movie in four years with the personnel decisions he's making.

16.9 - Ravens Kicker

I feel really confident that you can "wait" on defense and kicker this year, as Jake Bates, the new Brandon Aubrey of kickers this season, is the easiest last-round selection at kicker for the Lions, but there wasn't anyone else in this range that I truly liked. Might as well get the first-ballot Hall of Famer who also happens to have a Week 14 bye.

17.4 - AJ Dillon

This is the actual backup to Josh Jacobs, not MarShawn Lloyd. Also can be confidently one of my first cuts if I'm really sweating something with my roster given most people don't seem to understand the hierarchy yet.

18.9 - Ricky Pearsall

I'm a little surprised Ricky Pearsall was even around to this point, but obviously with the impending news regarding Brandon Aiyuk, this already feels like a substantial windfall. I suspect Jauan Jennings is going to be far more annoying to Pearsall's fantasy value than people want to admit, and I also sneakily like Jacob Cowing too, but the Niners will be entirely invested in making their 2024 first-round pick "a thing" in the event they trade Aiyuk.

19.4 - Ben Sinnott

Everyone wants to find this year's Puka Nacua, but why aren't more people looking for this year's Trey McBride? Ben Sinnott has the prototypical size to play the position, was an absolute physical specimen at the NFL Combine and has the corpse of Zach Ertz operating as the only thing in his way on the depth chart. Sinnott is going to be in fantasy players' starting rosters by Week 7.

20.9 - Seahawks Defense

It's a defense, and they get to the play the Broncos and Patriots in back-to-back weeks to begin the season.