With free agency a couple weeks out, there's one last chance to bet on 2024 Futures before the lines start to move around a lot. While I can't necessarily say this is my favorite way to put money down on too-early NFL predictions, there are always some lines that stand out as better values than the rest.
I'll identify those below, and also discuss why the market might be less optimistic than I am about the player/team in question. All the lines come from DraftKings, though I'll note that futures lines tend to differ by site far more than lines for individual games, i.e., you should probably check out RotoWire pages like this one to compare odds from multiple sites.
The differences are sometimes massive, e.g., DraftKings has the Bears at 30:1 to win the Super Bowl, while FanDuel has them at 40:1 and MGM at 50:1. On the other hand, you're better off using DK if you want to bet on the Rams (see below), Eagles (20:1), Cowboys (20:1) or Vikings (55:1). For whatever reason, DK seems to have better prices for a lot of NFC teams, while FanDuel and MGM tend to offer more favorable lines for AFC contenders.
2024 NFL Futures Best Bets
Los Angeles Rams / +3500 to win the Super Bowl
This immediately stood out as my favorite available NFL Futures bet. For starters, the Rams are coming off a 10-win season in which their only losses after a Week 10 bye were an overtime game at Baltimore and a one-point defeat in the playoffs at Detroit. Every team they lost to in 2023 finished above .500, with the Rams massively overperforming expectations after an offseason exodus left them at +8000 to win the Super Bowl and with an over/under of 6.5 wins.
I unfortunately have to admit that I agreed with those numbers, figuring the Rams couldn't overcome a thin roster that would force them to give so many snaps to unknown/untested players. As it turns out, some of those guys were quite good, including fifth-round rookie wideout Puka Nacua (1,486 receiving yards), second-round guard Steve Avila (17 starts) and third-round pass rushers Byron Young and Kobie Turner (17 combined sacks).
The Rams continued their strong work finding good players with non-premium picks, and they also got career years from LB Ernest Jones (2021 third-rounder) and RG Kevin Dotson (2020 fourth-rounder). While much of that couldn't have been predicted, it's probably fair to say that a lot of the other stuff tends to come together if your team has great coaching and a few premium players at the right positions (e.g. QB Matthew Stafford, DT Aaron Donald, WR Cooper Kupp).
In addition to adding a fourth bonafide star in Nacua, the Rams enter this offseason with the 12th-most cap space in the NFL ($36 million), a full complement of draft picks and a relatively weak class of free agents. It's been years since the Rams had even one of those things working in their favor during an offseason, and now they've got all three going at the same time
They also have GM Les Snead, who has a track record of flipping picks for star players and owns a stock of 2024 draft capital that Tankathon ranks as seventh best in the league. If you bet on the Rams at +3500 right now, the hope is that they re-sign their best free agent (Dotson), add a couple quality starters from other teams and then use some of the draft picks to trade for another veteran. Even if only two of those three things happen, the odds aren't likely to stay at +3500 for long.
Fifteen teams currently are listed with shorter odds to win the Super Bowl, including the Bears, Jaguars, Jets and Chargers. Being in the same division as San Francisco likely hurts the Rams here, though you could make similar arguments for the Chargers (Kansas City) and Jets (Buffalo, Miami).
Winning more games than the Niners might be a tall task, but making the playoffs as a wild card in the QB-deficient NFC shouldn't be too hard for a team that's led by McVay/Stafford/Donald/Kupp/Nacua and should have better roster depth than in 2023. Putting the Rams at +3500 implies that they're tied with Atlanta (also +3500) as the seventh best team in the conference... ha.
Note: Stafford at +3000 to win MVP also makes sense if you think the Rams can challenge the Niners for NFC West supremacy.
- WR Malik Nabers / +6000 to be No. 3 overall pick
I'm generally opposed to draft betting, in part because stuff that seems obvious to draft analysts isn't seen as obvious by the teams actually making the picks. It's hard to make smart bets without a set of baseline assumptions, and it's also hard to set good lines. The way books deal with this is by erring on the safe side (from their standpoint) and setting skewed lines that all but ensure a strong ROI for the house. It's easier to get away with this because draft betting mostly appeals to extremely casual bettors rather than the type of people that will go line-shopping.
In any case, I do see one notable exception on DraftKings, with Nabers at 60:1 to be picked third overall. The favorite for that pick is LSU teammate Jayden Daniels (+140), followed by Drake Maye (+150), Marvin Harrison (+225), J.J. McCarthy (+800), Joe Alt (+3000), Bo Nix (+3000), Michael Penix (+4000) and Olumuyiwa Fashanu (+5000) before we get to Nabers.
And while I certainly understand why Nabers isn't the favorite, it's odd to see him so low when he's universally expected to be a Top 10 pick and often mentioned among the Top 5. He might even be a No. 1 overall candidate in some weaker draft classes, considering he's 20 years old and had 3,003 receiving yards in three seasons in the SEC (including 1,569 yards and 14 TDs in 2023).
I think Nabers (and arguably Washington's Rome Odunze) did enough this past season that we should at least question the assumption of Harrison being the first WR drafted, even if it remains the most likely outcome. This line treats it as a near-sure thing, in addition to perhaps overestimating the probability of No. 3 being a QB. Yes, the Patriots need one, but they might trade the pick or sign a veteran signal-caller... especially when they know that drafting Daniels/McCarthy means missing out on Harrison/Nabers.
You won't find anyone that thinks Daniels is a better QB than Nabers is a WR, and the former was a late-emerging prospect behind a Heisman-winning performance in his age-22/23 season. That's not to say Daniel can't be a franchise QB, just that I don't necessarily buy the current chatter putting him clearly ahead of McCarthy and likely to be picked ahead of Harrison and Nabers.
Pittsburgh Steelers / +4500 AFC Champions
Only the Broncos (+6000), Raiders (+6000), Patriots (+7500) and Titans (+9000) have longer odds to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 59. Each of those teams had losing records in 2023, while the Steelers snuck into the playoffs as a wild card despite having some of the worst QB play in the league. There's a lot of concern that they'll run things back with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, in which case this bet would basically be money flushed down the drain.
On the other hand, they might make a move for Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson, in which case there'd be hope for decent QB play on a team that already has a good defense, solid O-line, above-average playmakers and one of the better head coaches in the NFL. Mike Tomlin has still never finished a season with a losing record, even though his teams have been outscored four of the past five seasons while starting either Pickett, Rudolph or late-stage Ben Roethlisberger.
Cousins or Wilson could give the Steelers the best passer they've had since Roethlisberger suffered a severe elbow injury in Sept. 2019, while a combination of Fields, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would make Pittsburgh a solid candidate to lead the league in rushing.
A boring offseason is possible, sure, but it's not guaranteed. While the Steelers currently are 24th in projected effective cap space ($5.2 million), they have a lot more flexibility than the number suggests, with numerous costly veterans entering the final seasons of their respective contracts. They can free up about $20 million without cutting any starters and then use extensions/negotiations/trades to lower or eliminate cap hits for key players like T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Diontae Johnson.
Apart from guys on rookie contracts, the Steelers don't have a single player with guarantees for his 2024 salary. That equates to a lot of flexibility, though the way they've negotiated contracts does seem to have impacted how the Rooneys are viewed by their players, which in turn can make it more difficult to sign premium free agents. The hope is that they make an aggressive move for a QB and otherwise use draft picks and mid-range free agents to shore up the roster.
Other Bets to Consider on DraftKings
DE Will Anderson / +2500 DPOY- OLB T.J. Watt / +700 DPOY
Philadelphia Eagles / +2000 Super Bowl Champions
Dallas Cowboys / +2000 Super Bowl Champions
Watt finished Top 3 in DPOY voting four of the past five seasons, with the only other year (2022) being one in which he missed seven games. Voters heavily favor sacks over other considerations, and Watt has recorded 13 or more in five of the past six seasons, including 22.5 in 2021 (when he won the award) and 19.0 in 2023. He should probably be the betting favorite ahead of Micah Parson (+550), rather than part of a four-way tie for second place. Team performance isn't nearly as big of a factor here as it is for MVP honors.
Others Bets to Consider on FanDuel/MGM
QB Joe Burrow / +1,000 MVP (FanDuel)
WR Justin Jefferson / +15000 MVP (MGM)
WR Tyreek Hill / +15000 MVP (MGM)
Indianapolis Colts / +3000 AFC Champions (MGM)- Cincinnati Bengals / +15000 Super Bowl Champions (FanDuel)
FanDuel generally has the best odds for 2024 MVP bets, but MGM tends to have better numbers for the top non-QBs. It's of course extremely hard for anyone but a QB to win the award nowadays, but Jefferson or Hill could get it done if there's no dominant quarterback season and one of them threatens 2,000 yards while leading his team into the playoffs.
