This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Chicago Bears @ 
New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 9
After conspiring with T-Swift the Almighty to keep her out of Denver to nail the Broncos' upset of the Chiefs, I'm back covering my favorite team to complain about, YOUR Chicago Bears! From afar, I watched with great pride as the Bears dug themselves a 24-7 halftime hole en route to a 30-13 loss in LA against the Chargers. Justin Herbert got back on track while Tyson Bagent looked like a DII QB with film against him. Bagent and his band of Bears roll into The Big Easy this week to take on the Saints, who sit at 4-4 and are off an impressive beatdown of the Colts in Indy.
Bears @ Saints Betting Odds for Week 9
Saints -8.5
Saints ML -375, Bears ML +315
Total 41
If you follow me elsewhere or are a client of mine, you'll know I am not a fan of the Saints. Many influential power ratings disagree with me, but at 2-5-1 ATS on the year, my view has been more accurate. This was largely due to their inept offense early in season without Alvin Kamara. However, Kamara and the offense were clicking last week in Indy and they come back home to face an equally inept defense in Chicago. Before Sunday's results, this line opened at Saints -5.5. By Monday, it moved to -7; by Tuesday, it was -7.5 before settling at its current spot at -8.5. Currently, 68% of all bets have been on the Saints, which explains the line movement, but only 27% of the money is on them. It looks to me that the sharps let Joe Public (and likely other sharps early on at 5.5/6) pound the Saints to get the number up and are now buying back on the Bears at 8.5. A three-point middle is a nice place to be for the NFL. The total has stayed virtually stagnant at 41.
Bears @ Saints Betting Picks This Week
The Saints' defense is good. Very good. In fact, their first six games all went under this total of 41. However, their last two games have resulted in 55 and 65 points, coinciding with the offense being at full strength. On the other side, Chicago games have gone over this total in all but one contest (against Minnesota in their first game without Justin Jefferson). In every Bears game, it seems one of the teams finds a way to score 30. This week, I see that team being the Saints. Even a repeat of last week's 30-13 loss to the Chargers takes the game over the total, which is my best bet for this game. From a side perspective, I have to follow the logic of the bets and money and would lean to the Bears at +8.5, but at +315, if you think this will be a close contest, I'd sprinkle a bit on the Bears Moneyline. The Saints are still a team lead by Derek Carr and his ability to send games sideways quickly. I don't see that happening here, but a 3:1 insurance policy isn't bad. It also pairs well with the over as one has to assume the Bears will have to put plenty of points on the board to pull the upset.
Bears @ Saints Best Bet: OVER 41 (universal)
Bears @ Saints Prediction
New Orleans is starting to hit its stride and is looking more like the team the books thought they would be. Their 4-4 record isn't spectacular, but is good enough to be tied for first in the putrid NFC South, so they are motivated and right in the thick of things. Alvin Kamara is rolling and Taysom Hill is doing his thing again. The Bears actually have the third-best rush defense in the NFL, but is that because they are good up front or because they are 30th against the pass and teams don't have to bother running? Either way, I expect a heavy dose of Kamara out of the backfield and a breakout game from Chris Olave, who leads the NFL in unrealized air yards. I see the Saints jumping out to an early 17-3 lead in the first half and duplicating those 17 points in the second half en route to a 34-13 victory.
