NFL Box Score Breakdown: Snaps, Personnel and Advanced Stats from Week 1

This article is part of our Box Score Breakdown series.

The games on Thursday and Friday brought hope for a higher-scoring season after back-to-back down years, but Sunday was more of what we saw in 2022-23, only worse, with the afternoon contests averaging less than 200 passing yards per team and numerous big-name players at QB, WR and TE turning in duds.

Running backs fared better, with seven recording at least 82 rushing yards and a TD while a few others put up strong fantasy scores once their receiving stats are included. It was a big day for older RBs in particular, namely Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, James Conner and Aaron Jones — all denizens of the so-called RB Dead Zone. We also saw encouraging performances from early picks like Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley and De'Von Achane, along with a huge effort from late-round selection J.K. Dobbins.

You'll find more details on all those guys, and many more, in the game-by game breakdowns below, with key points for fantasy put in bold and a slew of playing time / usage stats provided for every offense. One thing to be careful with early in the season is overall play volume for each team. Over the past three seasons, no team averaged less than 56.1 plays per game ('21 Seahawks) or more than 69.7 ('21 Ravens). But in any given week, it's normal to see a few teams in the mid-70s to low-80s and a few others in the low-to-mid 40s.

For Week 1, the high-volume teams were Houston (75), Baltimore (74), Philadelphia (74) and Cleveland (70). On the other side of the spectrum we had Indianapolis (43), Cincinnati (48), Jacksonville (50), Kansas City (50) and Atlanta (50). In the long run, better teams tend to run more plays and lesser teams tend to have fewer snaps. For a one-week sample, however, it's usually much more chaotic, and we'll even see some teams that get crushed (e.g. Cleveland) end up with lofty overall volume because they gave up quick-strike TDs to the opposition and/or had drives lasting double-digit snap in garbage time.

This is a good thing to keep in mind for players like Jonathan Taylor (16 carries) or Zack Moss (nine carries) who didn't get huge touch counts but also didn't lose much work to backfield mates. And then there's Bijan Robinson, whose total of 23 touches and 111 yards becomes all the more impressive when we realize how few plays the Falcons ran. 

Any RB/WR/TE with a target, carry or snap share of at least 10 percent is listed below. Any personnel grouping used on at least 10 percent of snaps is listed, in addition to rates for 11 and 12 personnel (by far the two most popular sets league-wide).

Ravens (20) at Chiefs (27) 

Ravens Personnel: 11 - 23% / 12 - 53% / 21 - 14%

74 Plays — 52 DBs — 7.2 aDOT — 26-of-41 for 273 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 10 scrambles

• The Ravens ran 24 more plays than the Chiefs, mostly because they got the final drive of both halves, with a 10-play FG drive at the end of the second quarter and an 11-play, almost-TD drive at the end of the fourth.
  • Baltimore went against reputation in this one. Nearly all the success came in obvious passing situations. The opening TD drive featured conversions on 3rd-and-9 and 3rd-and-11, with those two plays accounting for 62% of the yardage. The other TD drive was a 49-yard score by Isaiah Likely on 2nd-and-17. And then there was the FG drive in a two-minute drill at the end of the first half and a FG on the penultimate drive. Not once did the Ravens score by running the ball well and staying on schedule.
    • They also were called for five illegal formation penalties, which apparently is a new point of emphasis... but none really ended up mattering if you go back and look at how the drives played out.
• The snap share and touch count obviously weren't what you wanted to see if you drafted RB Derrick Henry, but it wasn't quite as bad as it looks at first glance.
  • Henry took 37 of 60 snaps (62%) that weren't inside the two-minute warning of either half. He even played nine of 12 snaps on Baltimore's second-to-last drive, which is kind of strange given that he was taken off the field in a lot of neutral-ish situations earlier. The final drive started with Baltimore down by 10 points with 10 minutes remaining, and Henry only got the ball twice (on a 2nd-and-1 and a 4th-and-1) on that drive. Per usual, the Ravens didn't show much time-related urgency until the matter was forced on the final series; they used 30+ seconds of play clock multiple times on the penultimate drive. Reminder: John Harbaugh will never change, not even in a little.
• TE Isaiah Likely was the unexpected star of the night, and he even played nine of the 21 snaps in 11 personnel (compared to 12 snaps for Mark Andrews) plus four of the 11 snaps in 12 personnel. In other words, Likely stole playing time from Andrews in single-TE formations, in addition to sharing the field in multi-TE sets. Both guys played every single snap in 12 personnel, but the 22 pairing (albeit for just four snaps) was Likely and Charlie Kolar, with Andrews not on the field. As for third-and-medium/long... Andrew got 10 of 11 snaps, with Likely taking seven of 11.
  • There's a real chance Andrews ends up dropping to low-end TE1 range, but I'd be surprised if he falls any further than that, and for now I'm viewing him as a mid-range TE1 (lower than before Thursday, but not by too much. His snap and route shares were still decent by TE standards, and he's never had much luck against Steve Spagnuolo's defenses. 
  • Pegging Likely's value is even tougher. He should be added wherever available in case he thrives as an Aaron Hernandez-type player, but the more likely scenario entails settling in as a low-end TE1 or streaming/backup type. He caught a lot of check-downs in Thursday's loss, but he also saw a deep ball (incomplete) and some intermediate targets en route to 113 air yards.
    • Likely was motioned on a team-high 16 snaps (31%), but only two of those were motion at the snap. The 16 motion snaps accounted for four of his targets and 28 of his yards.
• WR Zay Flowers led Baltimore's skill players with 88% snap share and 93% route share, but Rashod Bateman (84% snaps, 88% routes) wasn't far behind.
  • Bateman had 121 air yards on five targets (24.1 aDOT), while Flowers had 58 AY on 10 targets (5.8 aDOT). I don't have a problem with throwing Flowers short passes, but the quick throws to him have become too frequent and thus too predictable. which is especially frustrating given that he's perfectly capable of getting open on intermediate and deeper routes. If anything, he's a more natural deep-ball target than Bateman, who has been tasked with most of those downfield routes going back to last season.
    • Last year, Flowers had 53 receiving yards on 14 RPO screen passes. He also saw 14 RPO passes that weren't screens... and produced 231 yards on those plays. Anybody know Todd Monken's phone number?
    • Flowers had four targets on 13 motion snaps, including five plays in motion at the snap. His motion rates were slightly below last year's but not to an extent that necessarily signals strategic change after a one-game sample.

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 46% / 12 - 36% / 13 - 14%

50 Plays — 30 DBs — 5.3 aDOT — 20-of-28 for 291 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack, 0 scrambles

• The Chiefs had multiple TEs on the field for 52% of their plays, not far off from Baltimore's 58%. That number presumably will drop once WR Marquise Brown (shoulder) is ready, which could be as soon as next week, but it's at least a good reminder that the Chiefs used multiple TEs at the third-highest rate last season (36%, behind only ATL and NE).
  • The Chiefs went three-wide on just seven of 27 first-down snaps but all nine of their third-down snaps (every third down was at least three yards to go).
• RB Isiah Pacheco had the role many of us hoped for, playing 80% of snaps and getting a carry/target on 45 percent of his plays. The touch count (17) is pretty darn good when you consider the Chiefs ran 12-15 fewer plays than usual.
  • I've been pro-Pacheco and anti-Samaje Perine, but I still wouldn't recommend victory-lapping this one. Remember that Perine signed with KC just eight days before the game. Also, the Chiefs had just nine third-down snaps (six of which went to Perine, three to Pacheco) and no two-minute drills.
• TE Travis Kelce had a quiet night receiving-wise, but he led the Chiefs skill-position players with 88% snap share and 83% route share.
• WR Rashee Rice led the team in targets and was second to Kelce in snap share (76%) and route share (77%). It was nearly all short stuff (4.5 aDOT), like last year, but Rice looked even better running his routes and gaining yards after the catch.
• WR Xavier Worthy played 62% of snaps, third most among KC skill players, and ran the same number of routes as Rice (23, 77%).
  • The rookie had a 21-yard rushing TD on his first NFL touch, and he was later left wide open for a 35-yard receiving score. He was targeted only three times, but the combination of big plays and sturdy route share is encouraging. TBD if Brown's return negatively impacts Worthy's playing time.

Stock ⬆️:   TE Isaiah Likely

Stock ⬇️:   TE Mark Andrews / RB Derrick Henry 

  Ravens Injuries 🚑: OLB Kyle Van Noy (orbital fracture)    

Packers (29) at Eagles (34) 

Packers Personnel: 11 - 78% / 12 - 21%

58 Plays — 37 DBs — 9.3 aDOT — 17-of-35 for 260 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 0 scrambles

• QB Jordan Love is expected to miss 3-6 weeks after suffering an MCL sprain on the second-to-last play of Friday's game.
  • The Packers have playoff expectations and $14.6 million in cap space, but they didn't invest in a reliable backup QB or kicker this offseason. Now they're looking at starting Malik Willis for about a month. Also, K Brayden Narveson missed a 43-yard try Friday night.
• RB Josh Jacobs got 19 of the 25 RB opportunities, playing 77% of snaps on first down, 71% on second down and 64% on third down. He took 20 of 21 snaps in the first quarter (95%) and 62% thereafter.
  • Emanuel Wilson took the remaining snaps. With MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) inactive, Ellis Merriweather was recalled from the practice squad for depth but didn't play any snaps on offense or special teams.
  • Jacobs got off to a slow start, while Wilson had gains of 14, 5 and 18 yards on three consecutive snaps in the second quarter. But Jacobs ran hard all night and eventually broke off runs of 22 and 32 yards in the second half to finish with a solid rushing line and 103 total yards.
• TE Tucker Kraft led GB's skill players in snaps (95%) and finished second in route share (76%), but he was targeted on just three of his 28 routes and had the most pass-block snaps of any tight end Week 1 (eight, tied with NYG's Theo Johnson).
  • TE Luke Musgrave played every snap in 12 personnel but just three snaps in 11. He ran only eight routes (22%) and didn't catch either of his targets.
• WR Jayden Reed took 90% of snaps in 11 personnel but didn't play at all in 12 personnel. The missed snaps hurt his route share (73%) but not his production, as he had a 33-yard TD on his only rush attempt, a 70-yard receiving score and then catches of 33 and 26 yards on the final two drives. He was arguably the best player for either team in this game.
  • Reed's six targets were second most on the team on a night where eight Packers drew multiple looks but none had more than seven. He took 66% of his snaps from the slot and 19% tight to the formation, lining up on the perimeter just six times (15%).
  • Reed went in motion on 17 of 41 snaps, including 14 where he was in motion at the time of the snap. No other Packer had more than five plays in motion at the snap. Reed was also Green Bay's leader in this regard last year, but at a rate about 60% as often as what we saw Friday.
• Romeo Doubs led the WRs in snaps (90%), routes (89%) and targets (seven), catching four passes for 50 yards (he also had a drop).
• WR Christian Watson took 71% of snaps in 11 personnel and 31% in 21 personnel. He ran the same number of routes (27, 73%) as Reed and scored a TD, but Watson didn't do much otherwise.
  • WR Dontayvion Wicks had a rough night, with zero catches on three targets even though he was open on all three plays. He dropped his first pass, slipped and fell on his second, and then was underthrown by Jordan Love on the third. He also ran far fewer routes than Reed/Doubs/Watson, so it's hard to envision 2024 fantasy value without one of those guys getting hurt (or failing spectacularly).  

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 66% / 12 - 24%

74 Plays — 41 DBs — 8.0 aDOT — 20-of-34 for 278 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 5 scrambles

• RB Saquon Barkley was targeted just twice but otherwise had a monstrous role, taking 81% of snaps and 26 of the 28 RB opportunities en route to three TDs (one receiving).
  • Kenneth Gainwell got the backup snaps, while rookie Will Shipley had a few plays in two-RB formations with Barkley also on the field.
• WRs DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown both did their thing, with the former providing key short/intermediate catches (including one that essentially clinched the game) and the latter providing fireworks with a long-distance TD. Both were on the field for nearly every snap, and they accounted for 18 of Philly's 29 targets.
  • Smith took 55% of his snaps from the slot, compared to 25% last season. However, he only had five motion snaps, including two where he was in motion at the snap. The Eagles mostly put their RBs and TEs in motion; Brown had just three motion snaps (in motion at the snap all three times)
• TE Dallas Goedert didn't quite have an every-down role (81% snaps), ceding 10 snaps to Grant Calcaterra in 11 personnel and also coming off the field for the four plays with Barkley and Shipley together.
  • Goedert still finished third on the team in routes, targets and receiving yards, as expected.
  • Calcaterra led the team with 13 motion snaps, including seven where he was in motion at the time of the snap.
• Jahan Dotson was the No. 3 receiver but finished without a catch on one target. The Eagles didn't use quite as much 11 personnel Friday as they did under Brian Johnson in 2023 (or Shane Steichen in 2022).

Stock ⬆️:   TE Tucker Kraft / QB Malik Willis

Stock ⬇️:   TE Luke Musgrave / WR Dontayvion Wicks

  Packers Injuries 🚑: QB Jordan Love (MCL)   

Steelers (18) at Falcons (10) 

Steelers Personnel: 11 - 41% / 12 - 26% / 13 - 30%

66 Plays — 28 DBs — 5.8 aDOT — 17-of-23 for 156 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 3 scrambles

• RB Najee Harris got 58% of snaps and 22 of the 30 RB opportunities (73%), while Jaylen Warren was at just 29% of snaps and four opportunities.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson got 14% of snaps and four carries, taking a chunk of the work that went to Warren last year. Maybe that has something to do with Warren's summer hamstring injury, but it's probably more about Arthur Smith liking Patterson / the reality that Patterson can still play some.
  • The only not-terrible news for Warren was that he played 16 of 29 snaps in 11 personnel, suggesting his playing time will improve a bit in neutral/positive game script.
  • Harris took 78% of the snap in multi-TE Formations.
• QB Justin Fields didn't do much for fantasy managers but played surprisingly well from Pittsburgh's standpoint apart from a continuation of the snap-exchange issues that plagued him this preseason. It was a problem with veteran center Nate Herbig (IR - shoulder) in August and rookie center Zach Frazier on Sunday, so I'm inclined to think Fields is at least part of the issue. 
  • Frazier looked good besides the snap issues. The weak links were RT Broderick Jones and fill-in starter Spencer Anderson (played left guard in place of an injured Isaac Seumalo).
• TE Pat Freiermuth got 73% of snaps and 72% of routes, right in line with his rates from the past. His four targets were second most on the team, so this game somewhat alleviated concerns about his role, though there are still big questions about Pittsburgh's passing production/volume being a huge limiting factor.
  • Freiermuth played 23 of 29 snaps in 11 personnel (slightly disappointing) and six of 18 in 12 personnel (very disappointing), but his snap/route shares ended up alright because the Steelers ran 20 snaps in three-TE formations (and two with four TEs on the field).
• WR Van Jefferson got a few more snaps and the same number of routes as George Pickens, who nonetheless easily led the team in targets and yards. Nobody should panic over 80% route share and 32% target share, but I do think the Steelers should have Pickens on the field more often.
  • Pickens played every snap in 11 and 12 personnel but got none of the 20 snaps in 13 personnel (one-wide). Scotty Miller took 17 of the 20 snaps in 13, with Jefferson handling the other three.
  • Miller, Jefferson and No. 3 receiver Calvin Austin are all kind of useless as pass catchers. Jefferson is a good blocker, I guess, and Austin can be used on reverses and jet sweeps, but none of them is even a top-100 NFL WR in terms of catching passes.
• K Chris Boswell and OLB T.J. Watt won this one for the Steelers. Boswell went six for six on field-goal attempts, including three from 50-plus yards, and he even had a decent punt late in the fourth quarter after P Cameron Johnston suffered a potentially serious injury.

Falcons Personnel: 11 - 48% / 12 - 44%

50 Plays — 28 DBs — 6.5 aDOT — 16-of-26 for 155 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 0 scrambles

• RB Bijan Robinson had a McCaffrey-esque role, taking 90% of snaps and getting a carry/target on 46% of Atlanta's plays.
  • Tyler Allgeier stole only three carries, and a bunch of his snaps came with Robinson also on the field, including a 4th-and-1 that Robinson converted on an end-around.
  • The lack of work is actually good news for Allgeier's value in most fantasy leagues. He was never going to be startable with Robinson healthy, and Robinson has more injury risk if he's getting gargantuan workloads.
  • Robinson looked incredible, even if the stats are ordinary. He moves like a scatback, but he's 215 pounds and not at all afraid to use his strength/power when he can't dance around guys or run past them.
• TE Kyle Pitts had 96% snap and route shares but was targeted just three times, salvaging his fantasy day with a TD on a play where he was left wide open.
  • Pitts never purely stayed in to pass block but there were some plays on which he chipped T.J. Watt before going out for a pass route. He won't be asked to do that more than once or twice most weeks.
• WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney also had 96% route shares and rarely came off the field, but they combined for just six targets on Kirk Cousins' 26 passes.
  • London was in motion at the snap eight times. Pitts four times, Robinson three, Mooney four... and Charlie Woerner 11. The Falcons had someone in motion at the snap on 34 of 50 plays but the motion guy was targeted just twice all game.
• No. 3 receiver Ray-Ray McCloud led the team in targets and receiving yards but got only 48% of snaps and 64% of routes. The Steelers did a nice job keeping the ball away from London/Pitts, but this will probably be McCloud's season high for target share/rate. 
• Zac Robinson was McVay-like in rarely taking his best guys off the field, but Robinson didn't follow his mentor's usual approach of running nearly every play from 11 personnel. The Falcons instead rotated No. 3 WR Ray-Ray McCloud and No. 2 Charlie Woerner a bunch.
• QB Kirk Cousins played one of his worst games ever. We'll cut him some slack given that he's coming back from an injury, playing for a new team and had to deal with T.J. Watt and Mike Tomlin's defense. But it'll be time to hit the panic button if Cousins is still stinking come Week 3.

Stock ⬆️:   QB Michael Penix

Stock ⬇️:   RB Jaylen Warren

  Steelers Injuries 🚑: P Cameron Johnston (leg)   

Cardinals (28) at Bills (24) 

Cardinals Personnel: 11 - 55% / 12 - 25% / 13 - 15%

60 Plays — 38 DBs — 5.9 aDOT — 21-of-31 for 162 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks, 3 scrambles

• RB James Conner took two-thirds of the snaps and 20 of the 28 RB opportunities (71%), essentially mimicking his role/usage from late last season when he produced as an RB1.
  • Conner took 72% of snaps on first down, 81% on second down and 31% on third down, with Demercado getting 69% of the third-down snaps.
  • Trey Benson subbed in for a few early down plays and took four touches for 18 yards.
• WR Marvin Harrison was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments on a Sunday full of them, drawing only three targets on 33 routes. The good news? Harrison led Arizona in snap share (90%) and tied Michael Wilson for the lead in route share (94%).
  • The bad news? Harrison looked... bad. It's just one game, and his first, but another week looking this slow/lost would have me genuinely concerned. 
  • Kyler Murray couldn't get anything going downfield, going 0-for-3 on passes of 20-plus air yards and 1-for-4 on passes in the 10-19 range (the only completion being Wilson's TD).
• TE Trey McBride wasn't far behind Harrison/Wilson in workload, getting 85% of snaps, 89% of routes and a team-high nine targets (29%). McBride even had 75 air yards, thanks to an incomplete deep look (all the passes he actually caught were short ones).
• WR Greg Dortch got 62% of snaps, 66% route share and 26% target share, taking 51% of his snaps in the slot en route to seven touches for 51 yards.
  • Dortch accounted for eight of Arizona's 12 plays with a guy in motion at the snap, but he was targeted just once on motion snaps. Harrison, by the way, didn't go in motion presnap even once all game.

Bills Personnel: 11 - 38% / 12 - 38% / 6OL - 16%

58 Plays — 30 DBs — 7.2 aDOT — 18-of-23 for 232 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 5 scrambles

• The Bills were one of two teams (NE being the other) that used six o-linemen on more than three plays Week 1. Additionally, Buffalo ranked fourth in 12 personnel use (38%), and fourth to last in using 11 (also 38%). 
  • The Bills had three or more WRs on the field for only 44.8% of their snaps.
• RB James Cook got 60% of snaps, 56% route share and 22 of the 29 RB opportunities en route to 103 total yards. That's basically his role from down the stretch last year, or slightly better even.
  • Ty Johnson played more than rookie Ray Davis off the bench but then left in the fourth quarter with a knee injury.
• WR Curtis Samuel was merely the No. 4 receiver, getting 28% of snaps and 32% of routes. He's no superstar, but that seems strange unless his turf toe (reported in August) is a concern or there's some other injury.
  • The only encouraging thing for Samuel was that he was in motion at the snap on six of his 16 plays.
• Rookie Keon Coleman easily led the Buffalo WRs in snap share (72%), route share (88%) and target share (22%), putting up 4-51-0 on a day that saw Josh Allen attempt only 23 passes.
  • Coleman got 88% of snaps in 11 personnel and 64% in 12 personnel. The Bills rotated their WRs heavily in 12 personnel, whereas Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins were a fairly steady grouping for three-wide sets.
• Mack Hollins got the second most snaps (60%), while Khalil Shakir was second in route share (72%) and continued his 2023 efficiency with 3-42-1 on three targets.
  • Shakir took 71% of his snaps in the slot. Samuel got 44% of his snaps in the slot.
  • Shakir played 24 of 25 snaps in 11 personnel (96%) but just five of 28 snaps in 12 personnel (18%).
• TE Dalton Kincaid had just one catch and two targets, but he led the Buffalo skill players in snap share (88%) and was second in routes (84%).
  • Kincaid took 49% of his snaps tight to the formation, 41% in the slot, 6% wide and 4% in the backfield.
  • Kincaid was in motion on a team-high 19 plays (37%), but just one of those was motion at the snap.

Stock ⬆️:   RB James Cook / RB James Conner

Stock ⬇️:   WR Curtis Samuel

  Cardinals Injuries 🚑: RT Jonah Williams (knee)

  Bills Injuries 🚑: RB Ty Johnson (knee) / CB Taron Johnson (arm)

Titans (17) at Bears (24) 

Titans Personnel: 11 - 84% / 12 - 10%

61 Plays — 38 DBs — 7.7 aDOT — 19-of-32 for 127 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 3 sacks, 3 scrambles

• The Titans used 11 personnel on 84% of snaps, a higher rate than every team besides the Rams and Browns.
• RB Tony Pollard got 62% of snaps, 40% route share and 20 of the 28 RB opportunities, playing 75% of snaps on first down, 79% on second down and 13% on third down.
  • Tyjae Spears got nearly half his snaps on third down and four of his eight touches on a single drive in the second quarter.
  • The Titans ran four plays with both on the field together. Spears got the ball on two of those, and Pollard got it on one.
• WR DeAndre Hopkins played only 25% of snaps but at least seemed to avoid setbacks with his knee. Next week he'll presumably get a lot of the snaps that went to Treylon Burks this past Sunday.
• WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd each played 84% of snaps and topped 88% route share.
  • Ridley also had 26% target share and a whopping 69% of the air yards.
  • Boyd took 65% of his snaps in the slot, with Ridley at only 24%.
• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo scored a TD but his role wasn't encouraging; 57% snap share and 51% routes, with Josh Whyle getting 37% route share (but no targets).
  • Okonkwo took three of the eight snaps in multi-TE formations and 34 of 52 in 11 personnel (65%).
  • Okonkwo played 64% of snaps on first down, 53% on second and 57% on third.

Bears Personnel: 11 - 70% / 12 - 17%

53 Plays — 33 DBs — 7.8 aDOT — 14-of-29 for 93 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 2 scrambles

• RB D'Andre Swift had a tough day along with the rest of Chicago's offense, but his 68% snap share and 61% route share were basically best-case scenario, and he got 11 of the 15 RB opportunities.
  • RB Roschon Johnson was a healthy scratch. Travis Homer subbed in for some passing downs, and Khalil Herbert got his carries on back-to-back plays in the second quarter (3rd-and-1, 4th-and-1).
  • The only negative for Swift was Hebert subbing in for those short-yardage carries, as it makes me wonder if Herbert might also get the goal-line work if/when the Bears are able to create such a thing (kidding, of course... I think Caleb Williams and Co. will be just fine).
• WRs Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze both missed part of the fourth quarter. In Allen's case, it may have been the heel injury from this summer nagging him. In Odunze's case, he left with about four minutes remaining and now is scheduled for an MRI on his knee.
  • Before the fourth quarter, DJ Moore took 88% of snaps while Allen and Odunze both were at 81%. Allen had 10 of the 24 targets pre-Q4, with Moore getting seven, Odunze three, and nobody else more than one.
  • Allen took 47% of his snaps in the slot. Odunze took 44% in the slot. More was at 22%.
  • Prior to the fourth quarter, Moore played 13 of 14 snaps in formations with one or two WRs. Allen got 50%, and Odunze took 43%.
• TE Cole Kmet got only 49% of snaps and 39% route share, with both numbers being below Gerald Everett's. Each TE was targeted once.
  • Kmet should be dropped in most leagues. I don't agree with Shane Waldron, but it's hard to deny that he likes Everett as much / more than Kmet. Maybe the cream rises to the top, maybe not. In deep leagues, that's perhaps worth waiting on. In typical 10/12-teamers, there are better bench options freely available. Everett can be added in deep leagues where he's unrostered, but he's not worth adding in most formats.

Stock ⬆️:   RB D'Andre Swift

Stock ⬇️:   RB Tyjae Spears & TE Chigoziem Okonkwo  /   TE Cole Kmet

  Bears Injuries 🚑: WRs Rome Odunze (knee) & Keenan Allen (heel/unspecified)

Patriots (16) at Bengals (10) 

Patriots Personnel: 11 - 53% / 12 - 19% / 6OL - 28%

64 Plays — 29 DBs — 6.9 aDOT — 15-of-24 for 121 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 4 scrambles

• The Patriots used six O-linemen on a league-high 28% of snaps. Thirteen of the 18 plays were one-wide formations. Five of the 18 had two WRs on the field.
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson took 80% snap share, 60% route share and 28 of the 35 RB opportunities (80%) en route to a career-high 28 touches for 126 yards and a TD.
  • Stevenson played 81% of snaps on first down, 83% on second down and 73% on third down. 
  • Antonio Gibson got five of his seven carries on first down. Stevenson got the clock-killing work on the final drive, plus both of the inside-the-10 carries.
  • Stevenson didn't even get great blocking overall; he did a ton of his damage after contact, averaging 4.78 yards after contact per attempt. There were even a couple plays where he had nice gains after getting hit in the backfield.
• TE Hunter Henry led the Patriots skill players in snap share (84%) and route share (80%) but was held to 2-18-0 on three targets.
  • Austin Hooper also played a bunch, mostly in multi-TE formations. Henry took 74% of the snaps in 11 personnel. Both guys played every snap in 12 personnel, as the Patriots didn't use another tight end (they instead had OT Caedan Wallace get 28% of snaps as the sixth lineman).
• The Patriots had four WRs at 54-61% snap share and 56-72% route share.
  • WR DeMario Douglas took 34 of 39 snaps in 11 personnel (87%) but only four snaps otherwise.
    • Douglas took 82% of his snaps in the slot. Every other Patriots WR had five or fewer slot snaps.
  • WR Tyquan Thornton took 28 of 39 snaps in 11 personnel (72%) but only nine snaps otherwise.
  • WR Ja'Lynn Polk got 27 of 39 snaps in 11 personnel (69%) but only eight other snaps.
    • Thornton and Polk were on the perimeter for more than 85% of their snaps.
  • WR K.J. Osborn had the lowest snap rate in 11 personnel (59%) but got more playing time (16 snaps) in heavier sets, predictably.
    • Polk, Osborn, Douglas and Henry each had 4-6 plays in motion at the snap. But the Patriots targeted their motion player just three times all game.

Bengals Personnel: 11 - 69% / 12 - 29% 

48 Plays — 35 DBs — 5.6 aDOT — 21-of-29 for 164 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 3 scrambles

• The Bengals used two-TE formations a bit more than usual with Tee Higgins (hamstring) inactive, but they were still above average in use of 11 personnel (12th - 69%).
• RB Zack Moss got 67% of snaps, 44% route share and 11 of the 17 RB opportunities (65%), with Chase Brown handling the rest.
  • Moss took 65% of snaps on first down, 47% on second down and 85% on third down. He also got carries from the 10-yard line and then the 5-yard line, plus the lone short-yardage carry (3rd-and-1), with each of those three runs being successful.
  • The negative for Moss was a pair of drops. Brown is probably a better pass catcher, but Moss may get the third-down snaps anyway for blocking.
• WR Ja'Marr Chase got 84% of snaps and 88% of routes while tying Andrei Iosivas for the team lead with 21% target share.
  • Iosivas played every single snap, while Trenton Irwin was the No. 3 receiver with 65% snap share and 66% route share.
• QB Joe Burrow looked fine to me. He didn't throw downfield much but had enough velocity on his short throws and was mostly accurate. Burrow didn't get great blocking, but I thought the bigger issue was that none of Cincinnati's skill-position players besides Chase played well. The Bengals opened with three straight three-and-outs before settling in and moving the ball. But they only got eight series total, thanks to Charlie Jones' muffed punt and New England having some long drives.
  • Tanner Hudson losing a fumble at the goal line didn't help, and that was one play after Mike Gesicki failed to make a catch (admittedly a difficult one) in the back of the end zone on a perfect throw from Burrow.
  • Hudson, Gesicki, Drew Sample and Erick All each finished with 19-52% snap share and route shares below 50%.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Rhamondre Stevenson / RB Zack Moss

Stock ⬇️:   RB Chase Brown

Texans (29) at Colts (27) 

Texans Personnel: 11 - 56% / 12 - 38%

76 Plays — 38 DBs — 8.1 aDOT — 24-of-32 for 234 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 4 sacks, 2 scrambles

• The Texans used British Brooks as a fullback for a few plays, but they've mostly moved away from 21 personnel after releasing FB Andrew Beck. They instead used a lot of 12 personnel (two TEs), with Brevin Jordan and either Dalton Schultz or Cade Stover.
• RB Joe Mixon handled 72% snap share, 53% route share and 33 of the 37 RB opportunities.
  • Dare Ogunbowale took nine of his 13 snaps on third down.
  • Dameon Pierce looked good on his three carries but rarely subbed in.
    • This is another one where the starter's huge workload isn't bad news for the backup. Pierce was never going to have stand-alone value, and his lack of playing time off the bench increases the chances of Mixon missing time with an injury.
  • Whatever the single-game record is for toss plays, Mixon may have broken it. These weren't wide tosses where a guy looks to get way outside, but rather zone tosses where he ran right outside the tackle most times. It was kind of embarrassing for the Colts to get beaten by the same play over and over, especially when it happened (again) on Houston's final drive and Indy couldn't get the ball back.
• WRs Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell all landed between 83-89% route share, with Diggs getting both TD catches but the other two dominating air yards.
  • Collins is so, so good. Diggs isn't by any means washed, and Dell is an up-and-coming star, but Collins is the best real-life player of the three, regardless of how things play out in fantasy terms.
  • The Big 3 accounted for 21 of Houston's 31 targets, each seeing at least six.
  • Diggs took 48% of his snaps in the slot, whereas Dell got only 22% there. But Dell was put in motion 10 times to Diggs' five, including a team-high six plays in motion at the snap.
• Dell got just six of 30 snaps in 12 personnel (20%) but played every single snap in 11 personnel. And he was targeted on two of his six snaps in 12 personnel, FWIW.
  • Diggs got 42 of 44 snaps in 11 (96%), with Collins at 91%.
  • Robet Woods and Xavier Hutchinson got the 13 personnel snaps, but those were just two running plays and two kneel-downs.
  • Collins got 73% of snaps in 12 personnel. Diggs was at 60%. Woods and Hutchinson also chipped in there, but it didn't matter much in terms of routes because just seven of the 30 snaps were passes.
• TE Dalton Schultz played 89% of snaps in 11 personnel and 79% of snaps overall, allowing for 81% route share. That's the role fantasy managers were hoping for, although target volume remains a concern given the WR talent around him.

Colts Personnel: 11 - 77% / 12 - 23%

43 Plays — 24 DBs — 16.5 aDOT — 9-of-19 for 212 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 3 scrambles

• RB Jonathan Taylor took 95% of the snaps and tied for the team lead in routes (86%). Trey Sermon subbed in for two snaps but didn't touch the ball.
  • Taylor was the only RB in the league to account for 100% of his team's RB touches. It looked like he chose the wrong hole/cut a couple times, but physically he appeared the same as ever.
• WR Michael Pittman had 91% snap share, 86% route share and eight targets on 18 routes (not counting scrambles), but he was either well covered or QB Anthony Richardson missed the throw.
  • Pittman didn't go in motion at the snap even once. Apart from him getting zero, the motion snaps/tasks were split pretty evenly, with nobody getting more than five motion snaps.
• Speaking of missed throws... WR Adonai Mitchell was open on four of his five targets, but Anthony Richardson misfired three times, including on what should've been an easy 29-yard TD.
  • Mitchell was the No. 3 receiver, getting 65% of snaps and 71% route share, with his target share (26%) and air yards (28%) even more encouraging.
  • Mitchell led the WRs in slot rate (46% of snaps), with Pittman at 28% and Pierce at 19%. That sounds promising, but it might mean Mitchell loses more snaps than Pierce when Josh Downs (ankle) returns. Both Mitchell and Pierce looked good in this one.
• WR Alec Pierce tied for the team lead in routes (86%) and had a 60-yard TD and a 57-yard jump ball among his three targets.
  • The touchdown was one of the best throws I've ever seen, but Richardson was otherwise wildly inaccurate, and the Colts offense didn't do much apart from his two big plays to Pierce and a 54-yard, catch-and-run TD by No. 4 receiver Ashton Dulin (on a pass that could've been intercepted if LB Azeez Al-Shaair turned his head a split-second earlier).
• The tight ends rotated, with Kylen Granson leading the way at 58% of snaps and 57% of routes. That'll likely be a dead end for fantasy value again.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Joe Mixon / RB Jonathan Taylor

  Colts Injuries 🚑: DT DeForest Buckner (back)

Jaguars (17) at Dolphins (20) 

Jaguars Personnel: 11 - 74% / 12 - 20%

50 Plays — 25 DBs — 9.3 aDOT — 12-of-21 for 162 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 1 scramble

• RB Travis Etienne played 82% of snaps in the first half but only 56% in the second half, with Tank Bigsby having an 8-5 advantage in carries after halftime.
  • Bigsby had three of Jacksonville's first four carries in the third quarter, and then the fifth was a 10-yard run by Etienne on which he fumbled out of the end zone for a touchback, costing himself a chance at his second TD of the day. He wasn't benched or anything, but Bigsby continued playing a good bit in the fourth quarter.
  • I doubt Bigsby will be startable in many leagues when Etienne is healthy, but this at least confirms that the team's confidence in the backup is growing, whereas last year they didn't trust him and he might not have seen more than 10 touches per game even in the event of an Etienne injury. Bigsby now looks like a solid handcuff, if nothing else.
• TE Evan Engram had his normal shares; the issue was a lack of team passing volume, with Trevor Lawrence throwing 21 times (including two throwaways).
  • Jacksonville's top five skill players all had either three or four targets.
• WR Christian Kirk played fewer snaps than Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas, but Kirk's 83.3% route share was second best on the team.
  • Kirk dropped two passes, while Thomas made the most of his opportunities (4-47-1 on four targets) and got three-fourths of the snaps and routes.
  • Davis also had an efficient game, with 3-62-0 on three targets while leading the Jacksonville skill players in snaps (96%) and routes (92%).
  • Kirk took 63% of his snaps in the slot. Davis was at 23% and Thomas at 18%.
• QB Trevor Lawrence mostly played well, but the Jaguars ran a lot early, then their play-calling got really conservative for a stretch in the third quarter and into the fourth, and then he was sacked on his final two plays (partially his fault... the first one it looked like he could've checked down to Evan Engram, and on the second he had room to scramble but stayed in the pocket and got taken down).
• Top CB Tyson Campbell left in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury. He dealt with hamstring and quad injuries for much of last season, and Jacksonville's corner depth looks shaky (to put it gently).

Dolphins Personnel: 11 - 29% / 12 - 17% / 21 - 35% / 22 - 17%

65 Plays — 40 DBs — 5.8 aDOT — 23-of-37 for 338 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 0 scrambles

• Miami had a league-high 12 skill-position players with double-digit snap shares... a bunch of teams didn't even have that many skill guys active on gameday.
  • Of course, the ball largely went to the usual suspects, and the yardage/production tilted even more in their favor.
• RB De'Von Achane got 54% of the snaps, 55% route share and 17 of the 31 RB touches (55%), including finishing second on the team with seven targets (on 22 routes).
  • Achane's early usage was more encouraging than the final stats. He got 58% of snaps and 10 of the 13 RB opportunities before halftime, compared to 46% and seven of 17 RB opportunities in the second half.
    • I think the less encouraging second-half usage may have been lost in the celebrations. This was a win for Achane's value and a loss for Mostert's, but Jeff Wilson getting five carries and 16% of snaps in a close game is a slight damper on the Achane excitement.
  • Achane took 45% of snaps on first down, 54% on second down and 56% on third down.
• WR Jaylen Waddle missed a few snaps to be checked for a concussion. He played a great game otherwise but was targeted on just five of 28 routes, taking a backseat to Tyreek Hill and Achane in terms of usage.
  • Hill's role was the usual. Fewer snaps than other elite WRs (71%), but it doesn't matter because he's targeted on such a high rate of routes and does so much damage with his chances.
• TE Jonnu Smith got only 29% of snaps and 40% of routes, working in a timeshare with Durham Smythe and Julian Hill.
  • Smythe and Hill played together in multi-TE formations, while Smith got 61% of the snaps in 11 personnel (the Dolphins use 11 less than other teams, of course).
• Hill and Waddle both played 87% of snaps in 11 personnel, with Braxton Berrios getting 100%.
  • In 12 and 21 personnel (two wide), Hill took 74% of snaps and Waddle took 63%.
  • In 22 personnel (one wide), Waddle got nine of the 13 snaps and Hill the other four.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Tank Bigsby / WR Brian Thomas

Stock ⬇️:   RB Travis Etienne / RB Raheem Mostert

  Jaguars Injuries 🚑: CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring)   

  Dolphins Injuries 🚑: LB David Long (hand)

Panthers (10) at Saints (47) 

Panthers Personnel: 11 - 80% / 12 - 16%

55 Plays — 39 DBs — 11.2 aDOT — 13-of-31 for 161 yards — 0 TD, 2 INTs, 4 sacks, 4 scrambles

• The Panthers removed key players late in the game, including WRs Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen and eventually QB Bryce Young.
  • Before the fourth quarter, Johnson played 97% of snaps and drew six of Carolina's 17 targets.
• Rookie TE Ja'Tavion Sanders had the second-largest snap share pre-Q4 at 84%, but he was targeted just once.
  • Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble both were inactive with injuries. One or both should be back within the next week or two, so Sanders' role may decline.
• WR Adam Thielen played 81% of snaps before the final quarter, with Xavier Legette (57%) and Jonathan Mingo (49%) rotating in the other spot.
  • Thielen took 68% of his snaps in the slot. Mingo was at 36%, Legette at 28% and Johnson at only 22%.
• RB Chuba Hubbard played 60% of snaps before the final quarter, taking five of the eight RB carries but not seeing any targets.
  • Miles Sanders had three carries and two targets before the fourth quarter, equaling Hubbard's opportunities (five apiece) on 41% of snaps. It looked like more of a 1A, 1B thing than Hubbard being the clear lead.
• Young couldn't have played worse. I watched more of this game than I should've, and it was every bit as bad as the stats suggest... no silver linings. The Panthers' blocking wasn't even that bad; Young was just flat-out terrible.
  • If you really want to reach, Legette leading the team in catches and targets could be considered a silver lining?

Saints Personnel: 11 - 32% / 12 - 27% / 21 - 26%

62 Plays — 26 DBs — 9.5 aDOT — 19-of-24 for 200 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 1 scramble

• The Saints matched Miami for personnel diversity / giving snaps to a slew of different players, albeit aided by garbage time in what was by far the ugliest blowout of the week.
• New Orleans rested a lot of key guys in the fourth quarter, including RB Alvin Kamara and WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
• Before the fourth quarter, Kamara took 60% of snaps and 19 of the 27 RB opportunities (70%), with Jamaal Williams at 31% and eight opportunities.
  • That's if we don't count Taysom Hill, who had five carries and two targets on 36% of snaps before the fourth quarter. Hill took 12 snaps in the backfield (non-direct snap), seven as an in-line tight end, one in the slot and one direct snap.
• Before the fourth quarter, Olave got 87% of snaps, Foster Moreau took 86% and Shaheed had 75%.
  • It was a frustrating day for Olave's fantasy managers, as Shaheed, Moreau and Juwan Johnson did damage early and then the Saints bled clock in the second half.
  • Shaheed had a long-distance TD on the opening drive and led the team in targets (five) and receiving yards (73). He also played more snaps than his 2023 norm, prior to the fourth quarter.
• Moreau had only 44% route share but played more than twice as many snaps as Juwan Johnson, who put up 2-26-1 (but on only 48% route share).
• WR Cedrick Wilson took 75% of snaps in 11 personnel, working as the No. 3 receiver. (A.T. Perry was inactive with a hand injury, but reports from Saints beat guys suggested Wilson was the No. 3 WR ahead of Perry anyway.)
• Hill took only one direct snap but 
• The Saints thoroughly dominated from start to finish, but they lost three starters to injuries along the way (see below), including top corner Marshon Lattimore.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Rashid Shaheed

Stock ⬇️:   RB Chuba Hubbard / QB Bryce Young

  Saints Injuries 🚑: TE Foster Moreau (head) / CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) / G Lucas Patrick (toe)

Vikings (28) at Giants (6) 

Vikings Personnel: 11 - 69% / 12 - 2% / 21 - 28%

51 Plays — 26 DBs — 7.7 aDOT — 19-of-24 for 208 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 sack, 1 scramble

• WR Jordan Addison played two snaps in the third quarter before exiting with an ankle injury. He drew a team-high four of the 14 targets before halftime, playing 93% of snaps.
  • Brandon Powell played 50% of snaps in the first half, well ahead of Jalen Nailor, who was at only 21% snap share pre-halftime but then played more after Addison's injury and scored a TD.
    • Vikings beat writers expected Nailor to be the No. 3 over Addison. Maybe Nailor's recent ankle injury was a factor, or maybe Kevin O'Connell just decided to favor Powell's experience).
• RB Aaron Jones took 53% of snaps, including 59% before the fourth quarter, and had 16 of the 28 RB opportunities (57%).
  • Myles Gaskin's lone touch was at the very end, with Minnesota up by 22 inside the two-minute warning. Before that, Jones dominated the clock-killing work with five consecutive carries.
    • Prior to those five carries, Jones and Chandler were deadlocked at 11 touches apiece.
• Jones took 62% of snaps on first down, 59% on second down and 27% on third down.
  • Chandler also got just 27% of snaps on third down. The Vikings ran four plays with FB C.J. Ham as the lone back on third down (including one on which he caught a check-down and then lost a fumble in the first quarter). Using Ham as the third-down back at times isn't a new thing for O'Connell, by the way.
• WR Justin Jefferson had 100% route share and a short TD catch on fourth down. He also caught a deep ball; he played well but had a quiet game by Jjetta standards.
• TEs Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver had a near-50/50 split of snaps, routes and targets, essentially ending any hope of that spot providing fantasy utility while T.J. Hockenson (ACL) is unavailable.

Giants Personnel: 11 - 56% / 12 - 31%

68 Plays — 49 DBs — 4.5 aDOT — 22-of-42 for 186 yards — 0 TD, 2 INTs, 5 sacks, 2 scrambles

• RB Devin Singletary finished with 71% snap share and 15 of the 23 RB opportunities (65%), but backups Tyrone Tracy and Eric Gray both got 3-4 snaps in the first quarter. Singletary then took 93% of snaps in the second quarter, 79% in the third and  65% in the fourth.
  • Singletary played 69% of snaps on first down, 77% on second down and 68% on third down, i.e., he was the trusted guy for every situation but came off the field some.
• WR Malik Nabers played every snap and caught five of seven targets for 66 yards in an otherwise disastrously inefficient offense. His target share was only 18.4%, and he got only 46 air yards on a day where Daniel Jones had a 4.5 aDOT.
  • Nabers got 81% of his snaps on the perimeter and 18% in the slot. The lack of slot work might seem disappointing, and he did drop a pass, but Nabers was put in motion 14 times, including 10 times at the snap, and he caught four passes for 62 yards on six targets on those plays.
• WR Wan'Dale Robinson took just two of 21 snaps in 12 personnel but nonetheless led the team in targets, catches and air yards. A lot of his targets were shy of the sticks on third down.
  • Robinson played all 39 snaps in 11 personnel and took 76% of his snaps in the slot.
  • Robbinson was targeted on four of his 11 motion snaps (seven in motion at the snap).
• WR Darius Slayton was second on the team in routes (79%), while Jalin Hyatt didn't play much (22% snaps, 17% routes).
• TE Theo Johnson was the clear No. 1 over Chris Manhertz and Daniel Bellinger, but the rookie didn't do much with 87% snap share and 70% route share.
  • Johnson finally caught a pass in the fourth quarter, after his first three targets were either drops or miscommunications with Daniel Jones.
• Jones was absolutely awful. His interior linemen didn't help, nor did five drops, but Jones seemed like the biggest problem — more so than the playcalling or blocking. That's probably to be expected, given that Jones is 10 months removed from ACL surgery and was one of the worst starting QBs even before the injury.

Stock ⬆️:   QB Sam Darnold

Stock ⬇️:   WR Jalin Hyatt

  Vikings Injuries 🚑: WR Jordan Addison (ankle)   

  Giants Injuries 🚑: CB Nick McCloud (knee)

Raiders (10) at Chargers (22) 

Raiders Personnel: 11 - 75% / 12 - 17%

59 Plays — 40 DBs — 4.4 aDOT — 25-of-33 for 257 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 sacks, 3 scrambles

• The Raiders went three-wide on 75% of snaps, using multi-TE Formations much less than I'd expected. 
  • Brock Bowers got only a few more snaps than Michael Mayer but doubled his route total (70% to 35%) and led the team in targets (eight).
    • Bowers took 48% of his snaps inline and 45% in the slot, while Mayer was at 68% inline and 21% in the slot.
• RB Zamir White got 13 of the 18 RB carries but just two of the eight targets and played 39% of snaps.
  • Negative game script didn't help White, but Alexander Mattison was also significantly involved early on, including a 31-yard TD reception in the first quarter (on which he made two defenders miss to take a short pass for a long score).
  • Mattison got more snaps than White in every quarter besides the third, including 88% of snaps in the fourth quarter.
  • White took 48% of snaps on first down, 47% on second down and 7% on third down.
  • White's lost fumble was on the second drive of the third quarter, i.e., it had nothing to do with his disappointing role. In fact, the Raiders went back to him for back-to-back carries on their next two plays after the fumble. White got four carries for 20 yards in a span of six plays, before the team transitioned to catch-up mode and mostly kept Mattison on the field down the stretch.
• No. 3 receiver Tre Tucker was targeted just three times but got nearly as many snaps/routes as Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
  • Adams drew three targets on the Raiders' first 12 snaps and just three more the rest of the game.
  • Meyers took a team-high 53% of his snaps in the slot. Tucker was there just 22% of the time, slightly less than Adams (25%).

Chargers Personnel: 11 - 57% / 12 - 9% / 21 - 17% / 22 - 15%

54 Plays — 28 DBs — 6.7 aDOT — 17-of-26 for 144 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack, 1 scramble

• RB J.K. Dobbins played more snaps than Gus Edwards in every quarter besides the fourth, taking 59% of snaps and 48% route share overall while getting 13 of the 25 RB opportunities (52%).
  • It was pretty close to 50/50 in terms of touches, with Edwards actually getting one more carry, but Dobbins overcame a slow start and had gains of 46 and 61 yards in the second half, with a 12-yard TD sandwiched in between.
  • Edwards had an unsuccessful two-point attempt in the fourth quarter, but Dobbins surprisingly got the other short-yardage carry (his 46-yard gain on 3rd-and-1) and both red-zone carries.
  • Dobbins took 41% of snaps on first down, 58% on second down and 87% on third down.
  • Dobbins couldn't quite break away from the defense the way he would've a few years ago — before ACL and Achilles' tears — but his agility and acceleration looked good and he made a few defenders miss. And his contact balance remains excellent.
• Rookie WR Ladd McConkey was third among the WRs in snaps (65%) and routes (78%) but led the team in targets (28%) and receiving production (5-39-1), including a short TD catch on which he juked two defenders.
  • McConkey played 28 of 32 snaps in 11 personnel (88%) and nine of 15 snaps in two-wide formations (60%). He just didn't get any playing time in single-wide looks, with those mostly going to Semi Fehoko.
  • McConkey took 51% of his snaps in the slot.
• WR Quentin Johnston got 67% of snaps and 82% of routes, right in the same range as McConkey but solidly behind Joshua Palmer (80% snaps, 96% routes).
  • Palmer had two passes go off his hands. Neither was an easy play, but both were catchable. The first was in the end zone, and the second was nearly intercepted after hitting his hand.
• TE Hayden Hurst was targeted just three times but got 63% snap share and 78% route share, while Will Dissly ran only five routes (19%).

Stock ⬆️:   RB J.K. Dobbins & WR Ladd McConkey  

Stock ⬆️:   TE Brock Bowers & RB Alexander Mattison

Stock ⬇️:   RB Gus Edwards  /   RB Zamir White

  Raiders Injuries 🚑: DE Tyree Wilson (knee)

Broncos (20) at Seahawks (26) 

Broncos Personnel: 11 - 64% / 12 - 10%

69 Plays — 49 DBs — 6.1 aDOT — 26-of-42 for 138 yards — 0 TD, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 5 scrambles

• The Broncos tied for the league lead with eight different personnel groupings, but 11 personnel (64%) was the only one they used more than seven times. That seems like an unnecessary element of complexity to add for a team with a rookie starter at QB in Week 1, and it's not like the Broncos have the WRs or TEs to create mismatches even if they can get the defense into a supposedly favorable look.
• RB Javonte Williams got 52% of snaps but only 12 of the 27 RB opportunities, with Jaleel McLaughlin at 36% snap share yet leading the team in carries (10) and also getting five of the seven RB targets.
  • Williams got 61% of third-down snaps and 72% of fourth-quarter snaps, so he may see more targets than McLaughlin moving forward if their roles stay the same (which is far from a guarantee).
  • Audric Estime took two carries on three snaps.
  • McLaughlin played only 29% of snaps on first down but 52% on second down. The Broncos were subbing the RBs in and out a lot, not necessarily alternating drives. And McLaughlin got the next touch/snap after losing a fumble in the third quarter.
• Josh Reynolds was the clear No. 2 receiver, getting 80% of snaps and 84% of routes, compared to 51% and 59%, respectively, for Devaughn Vele, though both had eight targets.
  • Vele caught each of his eight targets but for only 39 yards, with a 2.1 aDOT (RB range). He's 6-4, 210, and ran a 4.47 40, so not exactly the type of guy you'd normally expect to see that usage.
    • Vele took 77% of his snaps in the slot.
• WR Courtland Sutton had 29% target share and 62% of the team's air yards but finished at just 4-38-0 on 12 targets. He went 1-for-7 on targets 10-plus yards downfield.
  • Sutton also led the Denver skill players in snaps (91%) and routes (95%)
• TE Greg Dulcich took 68% of snaps and 66% route share but was targeted just three times on 29 routes. 
• 2023 second-round pick Marvin Mims was merely the No. 5 receiver, and 2024 fourth-rounder Troy Franklin was a healthy scratch. 

Seahawks Personnel: 11 - 73% / 12 - 27%

60 Plays — 28 DBs — 6.0 aDOT — 18-of-25 for 171 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• RB Kenneth Walker got 67% of snaps and 23 of the 31 RB opportunities (74%) en route to a 20-103-1 rushing line, and his shares likely would've been even larger if not for an abdominal injury late in the game.
  • Zach Charbonnet got the final four carries and two targets. Before that, Walker had a 20-4 advantage in carries and 3-1 edge in targets over his backfield mate, playing 80% of snaps before the final 10 minutes of regulation.
  • Charbonnet also scored a TD, from 30 yards out on a wheel route, but he averaged just 1.5 YPC and was stopped for a safety (Seattle's second of the game, incredibly). And over half his snaps came after Walker's final snap of the game.
  • Walker took 66% of snaps on first down, 71% on second down and 54% on third down. 
    • In addition to the lead in third-down snaps, Walker ran six more routes than Charbonnet, suggesting the new coaching staff doesn't prefer the former over the latter in passing situations.    
• WR Tyler Lockett played only 52% of snaps and ran three fewer routes than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but it was Lockett who led the team in every key receiving category (besides routes) and made the game-clinching catch.
  • JSN got 80% of snaps and 85% route share, taking 87% of the snaps in 11 personnel and 57% in 12 personnel. He was still mostly in the slot, however, getting 67% of his snaps there.
  • Maybe this is the start of a breakout, but I think Smith-Njigba still faces the problem of not being as good as Lockett, as was the case last year. And Lockett's reduced snaps could be related to his summer leg injury (though he certainly didn't play like he was injured).
  • DK Metcalf, meanwhile, was targeted on just four of his team-leading 25 routes (93% route share).
• TE Noah Fant handled 73% snap share and 74% route share, huge jumps compared to last season and more in line with his pre-Seattle numbers. He caught just two of four targets for 11 yards but should have some nice weeks ahead if this is his role.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Kenneth Walker & TE Noah Fant  

Stock ⬆️:   TE Greg Dulcich & WR Devaughn Vele

Stock ⬇️:   RB Javonte Williams

  Seahawks Injuries 🚑: RB Kenneth Walker (abdomen) / RT George Fant (knee)

Cowboys (33) at Browns (17) 

Cowboys Personnel: 11 - 60% / 12 - 8% / 21 - 20% / 22 - 10%

60 Plays — 35 DBs — 7.8 aDOT — 19-of-32 for 179 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 0 scrambles

• The Cowboys' final drive ended with seven and a half minutes remaining, so they never pulled starters (although they probably should've) from the blowout.
• RB Ezekiel Elliott took 50% of snaps and 12 of the 24 RB opportunities, with Rico Dowdle at 45% and nine opportunities.
  • That's 22 opportunities, rather than 24, if we don't count Hunter Luepke's two catches. He mostly played as a fullback/H-back/TE but did get one snap as the lone back.
  • The pre-halftime workload tilted more toward Elliott; he played 56% of snaps to Dowdle's 41% and had an 8-4 advantage for carries and 1-0 advantage for touches.
  • Zeke had a three-yard TD run and a nine-yard catch in the red zone, taking each of the Cowboys' three RZ snaps. Dowdle did convert a 3rd-and-1 in the second quarter, which was the only short-yardage carry.
  • Elliott took 50% of snaps on first down, 58% on second down and 43% on third down.
    • Both guys played in all situations, more or less.
• TE Jake Ferguson injured his knee in the third quarter and missed the rest of the game. He'll probably miss at least one game even though early reports are optimistic, leaving Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford to fill in at tight end.
• Jalen Tolbert didn't do much but was the No. 3 receiver, as expected, with 67% Of snaps and 69% route share.
• WR CeeDee Lamb got 32% of the targets and 42% of the air yards. Brandin Cooks was at 23% and 33%, respectively, and he scored the lone receiving TD.

Browns Personnel: 11 - 84% / 12 - 3% / 10 - 10%

70 Plays — 56 DBs — 8.8 aDOT — 24-of-45 for 169 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 6 sacks, 5 scrambles

• The Browns ran seven plays from four-wide formations. No other team had more than three (Denver) in Week 1. They were otherwise in 11 personnel for nearly the entire game (84%, second most), running just four snaps from heavier formations with fewer than three WRs on the field.
• RB Jerome Ford got 73% of snaps and 19 of the 24 RB opportunities, including 82% of snaps and 11 of 12 opps. before the fourth quarter.
  • Pierre Strong had eight snaps and one touch before the final quarter, then took 40% of snaps and four opportunities in Q4.
  • D'Onta Foreman played just one snap.
  • Ford's workload included 69% of the third-down snaps and a two-yard rushing TD deep in garbage time (29 seconds remaining).
• TE David Njoku left in the third quarter with what's believed to be a high-ankle sprain, potentially costing him multiple games. 
  • TE Jordan Akins played 96% of snaps in the fourth quarter and finished the game with 3-27-0 on four targets.
  • Njoku was one of the few Browns having a decent day, putting up 4-44-0 on five targets and 19 routes before the early exit.
• WR Amari Cooper had a rough game, catching two of nine targets on a team-leading 48 routes (94%). He should've had a long TD, but the ball bounced off his hands.
• WR Elijah Moore had more snaps (94%) and routes (92%) than Jerry Jeudy (81%, 82%), which doesn't seem smart. Not that Jeudy was brilliant or anything, but he at least scored at TD and avoided drops. Moore dropped two passes and generally looked lost/overmatched, again.
  • Moore took 52% of his snaps in the slot. Jeudy was at 28%, and Cooper at 26%. No. 4 receiver Cedric Tillman actually had the highest slot rate (58%).
  • Jeudy still got a ton of snaps and routes, but the combination of Moore playing so much and Deshaun Watson playing so poorly doesn't bode well for a late breakout for JJ.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Jerome Ford

Stock ⬇️:   RB D'Onta Foreman & WR Jerry Jeudy

  Cowboys Injuries 🚑: TE Jake Ferguson (knee)

  Browns Injuries 🚑: TE David Njoku (ankle)

Commanders (20) at Buccaneers (37) 

Commanders Personnel: 11 - 57% / 12 - 30%

56 Plays — 34 DBs — 5.2 aDOT — 17-of-24 for 184 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 8 scrambles

• QB Jayden Daniels scrambled on eight of 34 dropbacks. He and Lamar Jackson (10 of 52 DBs) were the only QBs with more than five scrambles Week 1.
• RB Brian Robinson got 67% of snaps and 15 of the 17 RB opportunities before the fourth quarter.
  • Austin Ekeler had just one carry and one target before Q4, then added a carry and three targets in the final frame (on 69% of snaps).
  • Robinson got 56% of snaps on first down, 60% on second down and 50% on third down, i.e., he wasn't always subbed out for Ekeler in pass situations.
• TE Zach Ertz played 70% of snaps and was second on the team in routes (81%), behind only Terry McLaurin, who got 89% route share and had 63% of the team's air yards on just four targets.
  • Daniels attempted only 24 passes, and at a 5.2 aDOT. It was basically all scrambles or dink-and-dunk besides a couple of incomplete downfield throws to McLaurin.
• WR Luke McCaffrey was second among the WRs in snaps (61%) and route share (73) despite playing just three of the 20 available snaps in multi-TE formations.
  • McCaffrey played 32 of 33 snaps in 11 personnel, with McLaurin getting 31 and the other WR spot shared between Dyami Brown (17 snaps) and Olamide Zaccheaus (16).

Buccaneers Personnel: 11 - 82% / 12 - 10%

61 Plays — 34 DBs — 5.0 aDOT — 24-of-30 for 289 yards — 4 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 3 scrambles

• The Bucs rarely deviated from 11 personnel, even with extreme positive game script.
• RB Bucky Irving took away more work than Rachaad White's backups typically got last year, leaving White with 69% snap share and 21 of the 33 RB opportunities (64%).
  • The split was more in White's favor in the first half - 74% of snaps, with a 9-3 advantage in carries and 4-1 advantage in targets.
  • Irving looked really good, picking up 76 yards on his 11 touches. He's neither big nor fast but may have the skills to make up for it.
• Not much went wrong for the Bucs on Sunday, but they did see one of the league's weakest CB groups thinned out even further, with Nos. 2-4 all exiting early. By the end of the game, they were left with No. 1 CB Jamel Dean and then a bunch of guys that are either slot corners or safety-corner hybrids.
• Jalen McMillan actually played more snaps than Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and that was true even before the fourth quarter.
  • McMillan was left wide open for what should've been a 30-yard TD early in the game. Baker Mayfield made a mistake in trying to lead him perfectly rather than slightly underthrowing it, but McMillan got a hand on it and should've caught it. Later in the game, the rookie got wide open for a 32-yard TD on a corner route.
• TE Cade Otton was targeted just twice but played 94% of snaps before the fourth quarter, maintaining his every-down role from last year.
• Evans and Godwin combined for 13 catches and three TDs on 14 targets, with Evans having over half of the team's air yards on six targets.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Bucky Irving  /   Brian Robinson

Stock ⬇️:   RB Austin Ekeler

  Buccaneers Injuries 🚑: CBs Zyon McCollum (concussion), Bryce Hall (ankle) & Josh Hayes (ankle).

Rams (20) at Lions (26) - OT

Rams Personnel: 11 - 100%

74 Plays — 51 DBs — 6.1 aDOT — 34-of-49 for 317 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 0 scrambles

• The Rams ran every single play from 11 personnel despite losing WR Puka Nacua to a knee injury in the second quarter.
• RB Blake Corum played one snap and didn't get a touch, while Kyren Williams took 91% of snaps and 21 of the 23 RB opportunities (but was held to 54 total yards).
  • Ronnie Rivers surprisingly was the No. 2 RB, a role that equated to just 10% snap share and two touches.
• WR Puka Nacua aggravated his August knee injury in the second quarter and missed the rest of the game. He's going to miss multiple games, it seems.
  • Tyler Johnson played 95% of snaps after halftime and accounted for five of the Rams' 23 targets in that span
  • Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell played a few snaps each but weren't targeted. Whittington had a one-yard rushing TD called back on a penalty.
• WR Cooper Kupp's 21 targets were a career high, and he added two carries for 10 yards while playing every single snap on offense.
• TE Colby Parkinson got 88% of snaps and 80% route share, with a 4-47-0 receiving line (but only five targets on 41 routes).
• The Rams came into the game without starting OTs Alaric Jackson (suspension) and Rob Havenstein (ankle), then lost swing tackle Joe Noteboom (ankle) and LG Steve Avila (knee) to injuries. 
  • They started Jonah Jackson at center and Avila at guard, which is the opposite of what had been expected all spring/summer (at least from the outside). Avila was supposed to move to center, replacing Coleman Shelton, while big-money addition Jackson played guard. Maybe the Rams were disappointed with what they'd seen from Avila at center.

Lions Personnel: 11 - 62% / 12 - 25%

61 Plays — 31 DBs — 6.8 aDOT — 18-of-28 for 217 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery split snaps 50/50 overall, with Gibbs getting 18% in the first quarter, 63% in the second, 33% in the third, 82% in the fourth and 25% in OT.
  • Montgomery had 5-45-1 rushing on the overtime drive, accounting for about two-thirds of his fantasy production on the night. 
  • Their roles looked similar to last year, with Gibbs getting way more targets even though Montgomery got some of the snaps in passing situations (62% on third down).
  • It'll be almost impossible for Gibbs to pay off at ADP if these are their roles throughout the year. He'll still be a solid fantasy starter, but perhaps more of a low-end RB1 than mid/high-end.
• WR Jameson Williams got 85% snap share and 93% route share, putting up 5-121-1 on a team-high nine targets and adding a 13-yard carry.
  • Williams' previous career high for snap share was 68%, or 72% if we include playoffs.
  • This was Williams' first game with more than seven targets or 69 receiving yards.
  • Williams accounted for 68% of Detroit's air yards - 130.
• TE Sam LaPorta and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown handled their usual roles in terms of snaps/routes, but they were held to 58 combined yards and uncharacteristically drew only two targets on 40 combined motion snaps (24 at the snap).
• WR Kalif Raymond was the No. 3 receiver but didn't see a target on 22 routes.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Kyren Williams / WRs Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson & Tyler Johnson

Stock ⬆️:   WR Jameson Williams

Stock ⬇️:   RB Blake Corum

  Rams Injuries 🚑: WR Puka Nacua (knee) / G Steve Avila (knee) / OT Joe Noteboom (ankle)   

Jets (19) at 49ers (32) 

Jets Personnel: 11 - 76% / 12 - 22%

49 Plays — 33 DBs — 5.8 aDOT — 19-of-31 for 203 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 sack, 1 scramble

• RB Breece Hall played 97% of snaps through three quarters and got each of the first 22 RB opportunities, before Braelon Allen took the final two touches in garbage time.
  • Hall and Aaron Rodgers were pulled late in the fourth quarter, while other starters (including Garrett Wilson) stayed in the game.
  • Hall got a carry or target on 22 of of the Jets' first 40 plays.
• WR Allen Lazard scored both of the receiving TDs and played every single snap, accounting for nine of the 29 targets and over half of the team's air yards.
  • Wilson saw two more targets and had nearly as many air yards but wasn't as productive.
  • Mike Williams ran just six routes (20%) as the No. 4 receiver in his first game back from an ACL tear. He'll likely overtake Lazard at some point, but it's perhaps not the guarantee that we might previously have thought.
  • Rookie Malachi Corley played only one snap.
• TE Tyler Conklin was targeted just twice, but his 77% route share tied Hall for third on the team. Conklin played 90% of snaps.
• CB Sauce Gardner and LB C.J. Mosley both missed some snaps due to injuries but returned to the game.

49ers Personnel: 11 - 40% / 12 - 13% / 21 - 40%

70 Plays — 33 DBs — 9.5 aDOT — 19-of-29 for 231 yards — 0 TDs, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 1 scramble

• RB Jordan Mason was the story of the night, taking 81% of snaps and rushing for 28-147-1 in a game where no other San Francisco running back took a carry.
  • The only negative for fantasy value was that Mason blocked on a bunch of his pass snaps, which is part of why he only drew one target. But it does seem his blocking is part of what the Niners like about him in the first place (his running also looked excellent Monday night, of course).
• WR Deebo Samuel took a bunch of snaps as a halfback (with no RB on the field) and tied his career high of eight carries, a number he reached twice in 2021 and twice in 2022.
  • Samuel never took more than five carries in a game last season.
  • He had eight carries and seven targets in the first half. Kyle Shanahan was a bit too aggressive/obvious with forcing him the ball, in my opinion, though it worked out fine for fantasy thanks to a two-yard rushing TD, a 25-yard reception and then some cheap PPR points.
• WR Brandon Aiyuk played slightly fewer snaps than usual but still had 78% route share. He failed to hang on to a pass in the end zone, which would've salvaged his fantasy night.
• TE George Kittle led the team in routes (91%), running four more than any other player.
• WR Jauan Jennings led the team in receiving despite running only 18 routes (56%) and missing part of the third quarter with an ankle injury. He returned not long after, and coach Kyle Shanahan labeled the wideout day-to-day Tuesday.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Jordan Mason / WR Allen Lazard

Stock ⬇️:   WR Mike Williams

  Jets Injuries 🚑: CB Michael Carter (ankle)

  49ers Injuries 🚑: Jauan Jennings (ankle) / G Aaron Banks (calf)

Vocab/Index

• DBs = QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks,  scrambles + scrambles
• RTs = Routes
• RT% = Percentage of team dropbacks on which the player ran a route
• aDOT = Average Depth of Target
• AY = Air Yards
• TS SZN = Percentage of team targets this season
• AY SZN = Percentage of team air yards this season

Personnel Groupings

• 11 = 1 RB / 1 TE / 3 WR
• 12 = 1 RB / 2 TE / 2 WR
• 21 = 2 RB / 1 TE / 2 WR
• 22 = 2 RB / 2 TE / 1 WR
• 13 = 1 RB / 3 TE / 1 WR