NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 14

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 14

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 14 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 11 games. The Broncos, Colts, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens and Texans are on bye in Week 14, while the Thursday Night Football (Packers-Lions), Sunday Night Football (Chargers-Kansas City) and Monday Night Football (Bengals-Cowboys) participants all play outside the main slate. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 14, but the biggest is the NFL $115K Guaranteed contest, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $115,000 to the top 1,156 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 6,700 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $115K Guaranteed lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 14 plays include a QB-TE stack against a generous pass defense, an affordable RB thrust into a larger role by injuries, and a trio of oft-targeted WRs facing defenses that give up plenty of receiving yards.

QUARTERBACK

Sam Darnold, MIN vs. ATL ($28): Darnold has excelled in coach Kevin O'Connell's QB-friendly Vikings offense, topping 15 fantasy points in all but two games while tossing multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 starts. With no shortage of appealing targets at his disposal, Darnold's a stack-friendly QB option in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium against a Falcons pass defense that has been particularly vulnerable on the road. Atlanta has allowed a 21:7 TD:INT overall, with 12 of those TDs coming in just five road games, and two of the last three QBs to host the Falcons threw for north of 300 yards with three-plus TDs. With Aaron Jones battling a case of fumbleitis (four fumbles, two lost in the last three games), the Vikings have even more reason to ride Darnold's arm against a Falcons defense that has limited RBs to only three rushing TDs all season.

Honorable Mentions:

Josh Allen, BUF at LAR ($39); Kyler Murray, ARI vs. SEA ($29); Baker Mayfield, TB vs. LV ($28)

Against the Grainers:

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NYJ ($30); Jameis Winston at PIT ($23); Will Levis, TEN vs. JAC ($20)

RUNNING BACK

Alvin Kamara, NO at NYG ($34): Only Saquon Barkley (1,766) and Derrick Henry (1,532) have more scrimmage yards than Kamara's 1,344 this season, as the versatile RB ranks seventh in the NFL with 894 rushing yards and leads all backs with 59 catches. The Giants are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs (118.1) and the the seventh-most receiving yards per game (38.2) to the position. New York's run defense is likely to get even worse down the stretch with star DT Dexter Lawrence (elbow) set to go on IR, and we got a preview of how low things can go without Lawrence on Thanksgiving, as the Giants allowed Rico Dowdle to become the first 100-yard rusher for the Cowboys since Tony Pollard in Week 3 of the 2023 season. Saquon Barkley ($40) is a no-brainer against the league-worst Panthers defense if you can find the cap space for him, but Kamara has a similarly appealing mix of workload and matchup.

Isaac Guerendo, SF vs. CHI ($10): If you weren't able to scoop up Guerendo off waivers in season-long fantasy after both Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle) got injured last week, at least you can still take advantage of his ascent to the top of the depth chart in daily formats. His valuation will likely soar next week, so use this opportunity while you can. The rookie fourth-round pick is averaging a robust 5.9 YPC in his young career and has proven he can excel with a sizable workload, producing at least 99 scrimmage yards during both games in which he got 10-plus touches. The RB depth behind him consists of Patrick Taylor (signed off the practice squad Wednesday) and Israel Abanikanda (claimed off waivers Tuesday), so Guerendo should get a chance to run wild behind San Francisco's stout offensive line against a Bears defense that's tied for the fourth-most rushing yards per game allowed to RBs (116.4).

Honorable Mentions:

Saquon Barkley, PHI vs. CAR ($40); Bucky Irving, TB vs. LV ($32); Tony Pollard, TEN vs. JAC ($24)

Against the Grainers:

Breece Hall, NYJ at MIA ($28); Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. LAC ($17); Travis Etienne, JAC at TEN ($15)

WIDE RECEIVER

Drake London, ATL at MIN ($29): Just like the Falcons, the Vikings have given up significantly more production through the air than on the ground. Minnesota's 182.6 receiving yards allowed to WRs per game are second-most in the league, which makes both London and Darnell Mooney ($22) appealing options. Mooney has been slumping recently though, and the 6-foot-4 London is a bigger factor in the red zone. London leads the Falcons across the board with 70 catches on 106 targets for 796 receiving yards and six receiving TDs, ranking seventh among all NFL wideouts in catches and eighth in TDs.

Jakobi Meyers, LV at TB ($28): While you aren't getting a bargain with Meyers, the surging wideout is still worth serious consideration against a beatable Buccaneers secondary that just allowed Adam Thielen to rack up 99 yards and a TD while narrowly missing another score on a replay review. Overall, Tampa Bay's allowing 14 catches and 162.3 yards per game to WRs -- fourth-most and seventh-most in the NFL, respectively. Brock Bowers has been drawing headlines with his gargantuan target share, but when the Raiders aren't throwing to their prized rookie TE, they are usually directing the ball to Meyers, who has at least 11 targets and 97 yards in three of his last four games.

Calvin Ridley, TEN vs. JAC ($25): Like London, Ridley has a more affordable alternative in Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($21), but while Westbrook-Ikhine has a remarkable eight TDs in his last eight games, Ridley has a 68-38 edge in targets over that span, suggesting that the former Jaguars wide receiver has a far higher baseline for catches and yardage. Ridley has been productive in his own right recently, averaging 5.2 catches for 82.7 yards in six games since taking over as the clear No. 1 WR when the Titans traded away DeAndre Hopkins. After watching Jerry Jeudy excel against his former team Monday, Ridley will look to put forth a similarly inspired performance in this revenge game, and a Jacksonville secondary that's allowing 181.4 yards per game to WRs (third-most in the NFL) will be hard pressed to stop him.

Honorable Mentions:

Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. ATL ($32); Marvin Harrison, ARI vs. SEA ($23); Khalil Shakir, BUF at LAR ($23)

Against the Grainers:

Malik Nabers vs. NO ($26); Jerry Jeudy, CLE at PIT ($24); Deebo Samuel, SF vs. CHI ($18)

TIGHT END

T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. ATL ($17): Hockenson has alternated subpar games with good ones since making his season debut in Week 9, and he has a nice opportunity to continue that pattern with another ceiling game in Week 14. He has averaged 7.5 catches for 93 yards in the previous two even-numbered weeks, and the star TE has had the opportunity to shake off any remaining rust from the knee injury that delayed his start to the campaign. WRs Justin Jefferson ($32) and Jordan Addison ($24) are also sensible stacking targets alongside Darnold, but Hockenson offers better potential bang for the buck against a Falcons defense that has benefited from facing some underwhelming TE rooms the last three games, but which gave up a combined 16 catches for 152 yards and two TDs to Cade Otton and Jake Ferguson in the two games before that.

Honorable Mentions:

Brock Bowers, LV at TB ($27); Trey McBride, ARI at SEA ($26); Will Dissly, LAC at KC ($13)

Against the Grainers: 

Travis Kelce, KC vs. LAC ($22); David Njoku, CLE at PIT ($19); Grant Calcaterra, PHI vs. CAT ($10)

DEFENSE

San Francisco 49ers vs. CHI ($13): San Francisco's banged-up defense has underperformed but still has plenty of talent, and this home game against the mistake-prone Bears offense is a nice get-right opportunity, especially if Nick Bosa (oblique) and/or Talanoa Hufanga (wrist) return to join fellow 2023 Pro Bowler Fred Warner. Chicago canned coach Matt Eberflus after the Thanksgiving Day time management debacle sent the Bears to a sixth consecutive defeat, but the other main culprit in that situation -- rookie QB Caleb Williams -- is still there. Williams is only two games removed from a four-game TD drought, and his propensity to hold the ball too long has led to Williams getting sacked a league-high 49 times this season. Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown spent last season as the offensive coordinator for a Panthers team that averaged 13.9 PPG before serving as the pass game coordinator and later offensive coordinator for this year's bottom-10 Bears offense (20.1 PPG).

Honorable Mentions:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. CLE ($19); Philadelphia Eagles vs. CAR ($18); New Orleans Saints at NYG ($17)

Against the Grainers: 

Tennessee Titans vs. JAC ($16); Miami Dolphins vs. NYJ ($13); Jacksonville Jaguars at TEN ($11)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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