This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
The Week 16 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features nine games. The Thursday Night Football (Saints-Rams), Saturday game (Bengals-Steelers and Bills-Chargers), Sunday Night Football (Patriots-Broncos) and Christmas Day game (Raiders-Kansas City, Giants-Eagles and Ravens-49ers) participants play outside the Week 16 main slate. Yahoo will run plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 16, but the biggest is the Holiday Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $100k Holiday Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 15 options include a trio of heavily targeted WRs facing vulnerable secondaries, as well as a TE who has thrived since his team's latest QB change.
QUARTERBACK
C.J. Beathard, JAC at TB ($20): Trevor Lawrence ($30) would be a safer choice if he's able to play, but Beathard offers excellent potential bang for the buck if Lawrence fails to clear the concussion protocol by Sunday. With so many top QB options playing outside the main slate this week, it makes sense to focus more of your cap space on other positions. Tampa Bay has allowed QBs to throw for more yards than any other team in the league, and the Buccaneers' six rushing touchdowns allowed to the position are tied for second-most in the NFL. Beathard looked good in limited action earlier this month, completing nine of 10 passes for 62 yards in addition to having a 43-yard pass to Calvin Ridley erased by a penalty in two drives after Lawrence injured his ankle against the Bengals.
Honorable Mentions:
Justin Fields, CHI vs. ARI ($31); Kyler Murray, ARI at CHI ($28); Baker Mayfield, TB vs. JAC ($27)
Against the Grainers:
C.J. Stroud, HOU vs. CLE ($30); Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. DAL ($29); Zach Wilson, NYJ vs. WAS ($20)
RUNNING BACK
Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. DAL ($26): Mostert leads the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns, including seven in his last four games. De'Von Achane is also around in Miami's backfield, but Mostert is the team's lead back, as he's handled 36 rushing attempts to Achane's 16 in the last two games, in addition to getting the goal-line work. Dallas just allowed 221 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns to Buffalo's James Cook, and the Cowboys are 3-4 on the road this season, with nine rushing TDs allowed in the four losses.
Kenneth Walker, SEA at TEN ($24): Walker has handled at least 17 touches in seven games this season, and he has averaged 18.2 fantasy points in those games. After reaching that benchmark in Weeks 2-6, Walker saw a drop-off in usage due to injuries, most notably an oblique that kept him out for a couple games. He finally looked back to full health in Seattle's last game, producing 112 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia's elite front while seeing 22 touches to backup Zach Charbonnet's four. If he's firing on all cylinders, Walker's a bargain in a game that could see Seattle playing with a lead against a Titans team that may be without starting QB Will Levis (ankle). Walker popped up on the injury report with a shoulder injury Wednesday, but with Seattle having just played Monday, his absence from Wednesday's practice was likely precautionary.
Honorable Mentions:
Rachaad White, TB vs. JAC ($28); Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. GB ($23); Aaron Jones, GB at CAR ($21)
Against the Grainers:
James Conner, ARI at CHI ($23); Devin Singletary, HOU vs. CLE ($17); Ty Chandler, MIN vs. DET ($17)
WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Evans, TB vs. JAC ($27): Evans is showing no signs of slowing down at age 30. He has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th time in as many NFL seasons and ranks 16th in the league with 115 targets. His 11 receiving touchdowns and six catches of 40-plus yards are both second only to Tyreek Hill, who has 12 and nine, respectively. Evans is much easier to work into lineups than Hill given the $13 difference in salary, plus the Tampa Bay star has the far superior matchup this week as the Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most touchdowns (15) and 10th-most yards (2,295) to WRs. If you play both sides of this all-Florida clash by locking in Beathard and Evans, you'll also have an obvious backup plan available if Lawrence plays for Jacksonville, as you can sub out Evans for Chris Godwin ($16) to afford the $10 increase from Beathard to Lawrence.
Calvin Ridley, JAC at TB ($23): Ridley may be an even better value than Evans and Lawrence/Beathard from the Jaguars-Buccaneers game. He has been targeted a whopping 25 times over two games since Christian Kirk (groin) went on IR, but the stout Cleveland and Baltimore secondaries were able to contain Ridley. Tampa Bay's secondary is unlikely to match that success, as only the Commanders have given up more yards to WRs than the Buccaneers' 2,732. With Zay Jones (hamstring) potentially joining Kirk on the sidelines Sunday, Ridley should continue to see all the volume he can handle, regardless of which QB starts for the Jaguars. Jags-Bucs ranks in the middle of the pack with an over/under of 42.5 points, but Tampa Bay's last two games both featured 54 total points, and two of Jacksonville's last three have had at least 58, so it has the potential to turn into a shootout.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. WAS ($20): Wilson's stock would go up if Zach Wilson clears the concussion protocol, but even if the Jets have to roll with Trevor Siemian at QB, New York's No. 1 WR should find success against the league's leakiest secondary. Washington's 2,785 yards allowed to WRs are the most in the league, and only the Eagles (24) have allowed more touchdowns to the position than the Commanders' 22. Wilson has 79 catches and three receiving touchdowns, while all other WRs who have played for Gang Green this season have combined for 47 catches and two receiving TDs, so there's little question which Jet is in the best position to take advantage of this favorable matchup.
Honorable Mentions:
DJ Moore, CHI vs. ARI ($31); Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. DET ($28); Tyler Lockett, SEA at TEN ($17)
Against the Grainers:
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at MIN ($28); Noah Brown, HOU vs. CLE ($19); Amari Cooper, CLE at HOU ($18)
TIGHT END
David Njoku, CLE at HOU ($22): Njoku and Joe Flacco took one game to get on the same page, but the pair have quickly formed a special connection, as the athletic tight end has caught 16 of 22 targets for 195 yards and three touchdowns in Flacco's last two starts. Njoku should stay heavily involved in the game plan against a Houston defense that has allowed the second-most receptions (91) and third-most yards (875) to the position.
Honorable Mentions:
Evan Engram, JAC at TB ($22); Trey McBride, ARI at CHI ($21); Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. WAS ($11)
Against the Grainers:
Sam LaPorta, DET at MIN ($26); T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. DET ($21); Cole Kmet, CHI vs. ARI ($16)
DEFENSE
New York Jets vs. WAS ($19): It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Jets' defense scored more points than the team's offense. Reeling Commanders QB Sam Howell has a 2:6 TD:INT in his last four outings, and he has thrown for 127 or fewer yards in each of his last two starts, the latest of which resulted in him being benched. With nothing to play for, the Commanders intend to trot the second-year QB back out there against a stingy Jets secondary that's tied for the third-fewest passing TDs allowed (15). Washington has allowed the third-most sacks (59), and keeping the pass rush at bay with the running game will be tough, as starting RB Brian Robinson (hamstring) is trending towards a second straight absence.
Honorable Mentions:
Cleveland Browns at HOU ($19); Green Bay Packers vs. CAR ($15); Chicago Bears vs. ARI ($14)
Against the Grainers:
Miami Dolphins vs. DAL ($16); Detroit Lions at ARI ($13); Washington Commanders at NYJ ($11)
