NFL Expert Picks: Week 11 Monday Night Football Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

NFL Expert Picks: Week 11 Monday Night Football Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 11

The Houston Texans (6-4) travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys (3-6) in an inter-conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Texans sit on top of the AFC South in 1st place, while the Cowboys rank in 3rd in the NFC East. This is another game in which the Cowboys will miss starting quarterback Dak Prescott .

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Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds

Texans -7.0 (bet 365 -120) / Cowboys +7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -115)

Texans ML (DraftKings Sportsbook -325) / Cowboys ML (Bet MGM +300)

Total OVER 40.5 (FanDuel -120) / UNDER 41.5 (Fanatics -115)

The Cowboys opened as -3.0 home favorites but after the Prescott injury it moved to Texans -6.5 and has lifted further to -7.0 and -7.5, both with extra juice The total opened 49.0 and has steadily declined to 43.0 after the Prescott injury and now sits at 41.0. 

The majority of the bets (82%) have come in on the Texans, while the handle (74%) has also come in on the Texans which reflects that the "sharp" money has come in on the Cowboys. There is a 8% difference on bets versus handle.

The total has money on the Under at 64% of total bets, and 75% of the handle. There is a 6% percent difference on the Under for bets versus handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, as the Texans have received 91% of the bets and 90% of the handle. 

Key Injuries

Texans -  DE Will Anderson (O), WR Stefon Diggs (O), DT Mario Edwards (S), LaDarius Henderson (O), OL Blake Fisher (O), CB Kamari Lassiter (Q)

Cowboys - WR CeeDee Lamb (Q), QB Dak Prescott (O), OL Zack Martin (Q), CB DaRon Bland (O), S Jourdan Lewis (O) 

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Texans vs. Cowboys Betting Picks 

The Cowboys might have a case as the worst team in football now as they come in off an ugly 34-6 loss to the Eagles. They were outgained 348-146 in total yards, including giving up 187 yards on the ground. They also only managed 49 yards passing which is going to make it extremely difficult for them to score.

If the Texans are smart, this game will be a TON of Joe Mixon and they let their defense win the field position game. 

Texans vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Cowboys Under 16.5 Points (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)

Secondary Bet : Texans Over 12.5 Points 1H (DraftKings -130)

Secondary Bet : Joe Mixon Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings Sportsbook -125)

Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction

This has become a lost season for the Cowboys with Dak Prescott's season ending injury and their defense ranking dead last in rushing and points allowed. The only question here is with the Texans track record of often going under their team total in the second half, could we get a back door cover? I do not think that will be the case here and I think the Texans will cover the number in a low scoring game.

Texans 24, Cowboys 13

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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