NFL Fantasy Football Reactions: Divisional Round Weekend

What a weekend! I love the divisional round of the playoffs. The No. 1 seeds enter the fray. Usually, the pretenders have been eliminated. Also, this year's wild-card games were mostly non-competitive. This weekend, we had three incredible matchups. 

All season when I've written this article, I've focused on looking ahead for teams/players. For the three exciting games, I'm not doing that as much. This was one of the best weekends of playoff football I've seen. My thoughts varied wildly throughout the games. Here's how I viewed the games as they were unfolding. 

Texans at Ravens

• The Ravens showed us textbook playoff football. They withstood the first-half punches from the visiting Texans. After coming out of the locker room, they methodically ran their offense and wore down the Houston defense. They never showed any signs of panic. Playing with a touchdown lead late in the third quarter, they leaned into the run. At that point, they drained the clock and added a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to put the game away.
• As we've seen all year, Lamar Jackson took what the defense gave him. In this game, there were opportunities to run when the middle of the field was left unattended. On other occasions, the edge rushers crashed in too aggressively. In those situations, Jackson had a number of big runs. The star QB ended the day with 100 rushing yards while running for two scores. As a passer, it wasn't a big yardage day, but Jackson added a pair of TD passes. It should be great seeing him in the AFC championship.
• On the ground, Baltimore got everyone involved. Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Jackson each had at least 10 rushes. When Edwards seemed to get nicked up in the fourth quarter, Dalvin Cook saw work. The beauty of this rushing attack is that they are well equipped to play the style of football that's often needed in cold-weather playoff games. As they did in this game, they made sure the Ravens didn't lose a double-digit lead in the second half of games.
• No Baltimore pass catcher had more than four catches or 41 yards (Zay Flowers led in both categories). Early in the game, the Texans blitzed often and dropped defenders in coverage. To a degree, the defensive plan worked in the first half. In the second half, the Ravens didn't need much from their passing attack. 
• The Texans should hold their heads high. Even though they were blown out in the second half, their season was wildly successful. Helped by a punt-return TD, they went into halftime tied at 10. Unfortunately, Ka'imi Fairbairn missed a field goal that would have given Houston a halftime lead. It's possible a made kick could have made the Ravens come out tight in the second half. Just the fact that the game was tied took away any potential advantage the Texans could have gained.
• C.J. Stroud was playing against an elite defense in cold weather. He also was without Tank Dell (midseason broken leg) and Noah Brown. It would have helped if the rookie QB had more weapons. Stroud didn't lead a TD drive and was held to 175 yards. There's no reason to think any less of Stroud. He will be a superstar for many years. I'm expecting him to be in the discussion as a top-four QB in 2024 fantasy drafts.
• Houston could have used a run game. They were facing a Ravens defense that routinely plays with light boxes. As a result, teams can often run on Baltimore. For fantasy, Devin Singletary often produces numbers. However, he's not a sustaining runner. He's unable to move the chains on a regular basis. As usual, he had one big run of 16 yards. Otherwise, he was often shut down on most of his carries. His ineffectiveness made defending the Houston offense much easier. In the offseason, Houston should consider getting a powerful early down back.
• Although Nico Collins led the Ravens with 68 yards, it never seemed likely that the Ravens would let Collins beat them. Often, they shaded extra coverage in Collins' direction. There were other times when they let him roam, but on those plays, they were often sending extra pressure toward C.J. Stroud. Ultimately, the breakout receiver wasn't a major factor. It was great to see Collins emerge as a star this season. There's no reason to keep Collins out of the discussion as a top-12 receiver in fantasy, especially given that he's playing with Stroud.

Packers at 49ers

• As the game began I realized it would be impacted by rain. I mostly felt that this is playoff football. Usually, we have playoff games in January that are impacted by freezing temperatures and/or snow. In California, rain is the main weather issue. I didn't think as to how it would impact one team more than the other. However, when adversity is added, part of the fun is seeing how teams overcome it.
• To open the game, the Packers wanted the ball first. Just like against Dallas, they wanted an early lead. The 49ers were on record as saying they would have deferred had they won the coin toss. They wanted to have the ball to end the first half and begin the second.
• For Green Bay, their pregame plan somewhat worked. They quickly moved down the field and put three points on the board. The Packers would actually get into the red zone on each of their first three possessions. They came away with a pair of short field goals. However, on one of of those drives, they tried to sneak Jordan Love on a fourth-and-one and came up short, giving the ball back to the 49ers.
• On those first three drives for the Packers, the play calling was excellent. Aaron Jones continued to play like a superstar. As we often see with Matt LaFleur's offense, receivers were often schemed open. The Packers offense seemed to handle the weather much better than the 49ers defense. On a number of occasions, we saw San Francisco defenders slipping. There was no such issue for the Packers. It looked like their equipment team prepared well for the field conditions.
• Coming out of those first three drives with six points made me wonder if that would cost the Packers later. The 49ers pieced together a scoring drive that began early in the second quarter. At the end of that drive, Brock Purdy dropped a dime (one of the few dimes he threw all night) to George Kittle for a 32-yard TD. After Anders Carlson kicked his second field goal with four minutes left in the half, Green Bay trailed 7-6. On a drive-to-drive basis, they had outplayed the 49ers, but they were losing. 
• Backtracking a bit, the 49ers didn't look great on offense. Kyle Shanahan is usually a master at scheming players open. Sure, there were occasions (like the Kittle TD) when players were open, but this didn't look like a Shanahan masterpiece.
• All teams deal with injuries. They are not an acceptable excuse for not performing in the NFL. At first, I was concerned to see all the attention that Christian McCaffrey was getting to his leg by the training staff. He had a calf injury in Week 17, but it looked like he was dealing with more than that. I began to wonder if he'd make it through the game. Then, Deebo Samuel tried to take on a trio of Packers defenders after a catch. On television, it didn't look to me like he took a disastrous hit. Obviously, I was wrong. We wouldn't see Samuel the rest of the evening. 
• Without Samuel, it was interesting to see the 49ers offense. The Green Bay defense payed more attention to Brandon Aiyuk. There were critical passing downs in the game that the 49ers had some combination of Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud and Chris Conley on the field. Suddenly, the San Francisco offense didn't look unstoppable.
• Anyway, the 49ers had their wish as they neared the end of the first half. They had the ball and were driving. However, they seemed to let too much clock wind down. They also seemed to be a bit passive in their attack. Yes, the weather was an issue, but it didn't seem like a reason to lack aggression. As the clock wound down, they got into field-goal range. On the kick, the Packers made a great play and blocked the attempt. Instead of trailing by four points, they trailed by just one. 
• Coming out of the locker room, the 49ers had the ball and certainly had their mind set on driving for a TD to open up the game. It didn't happen. The Packers continued to have answers on defense. They got good pressure on Purdy. In addition, the defensive backs made a number of plays difficult for the pass catchers. However, the biggest issue was Purdy. I remembered how he struggled in the rain earlier in the season against the Browns. In this game, he was struggling with accuracy. On some plays, pressure caused him to throw off his back foot. But many times, he just missed receivers. It was really costing the 49ers on the scoreboard. 
• With the game still 7-6 after the 49ers couldn't score on their opening drive of the second half, the rest of the third quarter was incredible.
• It was haymaker after haymaker. On third-and-long for the Packers, Bo Melton drew a long pass-interference call. On the next play, a 49ers' cornerback slipped and Melton was wide open for a TD. Then the 49ers struck right back on a 39-yard TD run by Christian McCaffrey. The scoring wasn't over. Green Bay came right back. With 5:23 left in the third quarter, Tucker Kraft scored a touchdown, and Aaron Jones converted the two-point conversion. To end the third quarter, the 49ers drove down field yet again. They were lined up for a field goal, but the clock expired. The first play of the fourth quarter was a Jake Moody field goal to bring the 49ers within four points, 21-17.
• At this point, it was anyone's game. That said, the Packers had the lead. Although I knew either team could win, I thought the Packers had more consistent answers on offense than San Francisco. Being it was the fourth quarter, we would find out which team would persevere.
• The Packers made their case. Aaron Jones, who was fantastic all night, had an incredible 53-yard run to get the team into 49ers' territory. If Green Bay could cap off the drive with a TD, it looked like they would advance to the next round. However, as was the case for many earlier drives, the offense stalled out. Still, they brought out Anders Carlson for a field-goal attempt that would've extended the lead to seven. That would have likely ensured that the game, at worst, would go to overtime. Unfortunately, the rookie kicker's attempt was just wide.
• Now, it was up to the 49ers. I noticed that the Green Bay pass rush that had been gotten pressure all night was no longer getting the same level of pressure. However, Purdy was still very erratic as a passer. Realizing the clock was at a point where it was one possession for the win, Shanahan instructed the team to drain the clock and try to keep moving the ball. Ultimately, Christian McCaffrey ran in a short TD to give San Francisco the lead with about a minute left.
• I noticed that the rain intensified in the last few minutes of the game. Not only would the Packers have to drive the ball about 40-50 yards to get into potential field-goal range, but the 49ers' pass rush wouldn't have to worry about Green Bay running the ball. After three plays produced 11 yards, the Packers had a first down. On the next play, Jordan Love scrambled to his right to get away from the pass rush. Instead of throwing the ball away harmlessly to the right side of the field, he launched a wobbly pass across his body into the middle of the field. 49ers' LB Dre Greenlaw closed in on the ball and intercepted his second pass of the game. I don't know if Love could have driven the Packers down the field, but the interception kept us from having a wild end to the game.
• The 49ers will play host to the NFC title game. Meanwhile, the Packers have to be excited about the 2024 season. They have their franchise QB and an incredible group of pass catchers. If they can improve on defense, they could be a dangerous team.

Buccaneers at Lions

• It took the Lions a while, but they figured out that they needed to relentlessly attack the middle against the Buccaneers defense. I was stunned that the Detroit coaching staff didn't realize that right away. The Lions faced this team in Week 6, and used the middle of the field extensively, leading them to an easy win. In this game, for most of the first half, the Lions were inconsistent on offense. Once they got Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown involved in the second half, they scored TDs on three consecutive drives. That allowed the Lions to pull away and punch their ticket to the NFC championship.
• Otherwise, the Buccaneers gave a strong showing in a tough road venue. I expected the Lions to put a lot of attention on Mike Evans. They didn't. On a number of occasions, Evans was wide open for easy completions. Although Baker Mayfield took quite a few hits and sacks, he continued to show toughness by hanging tough in the pocket and giving his receiver a chance. That they had the ball with two minutes left and an opportunity to drive the field and tie the game was impressive. Unfortunately, Mayfield threw an interception on the second play of the drive to end the game. From a numbers standpoint, the QB threw for 349 yards and two TDs. Of course, there were the two INTs. Interceptions remain a part of Mayfield's game.
• This game was tied at 10 going into halftime. Then the game became fun in the second half.
• The Lions almost got too cute on the drive that put them up 17-10 late in the third quarter. On first down, they ran the ball down to the two-yard line. It seemed likely they would run the ball, even if it took three more tries to score. Instead, they threw incomplete passes on second and third down. On fourth down, they brought No. 3 Craig Reynolds in the game, which was confusing. What do I know? Reynolds easily took the ball over the goal line.
• Near the end of the third quarter, the Bucs tied the game at 17.
• On a second-down play, Baker Mayfield tried to evade the pass rush. As he did, he threw the ball away. Replay showed the QB's calf was down before the pass was thrown. Before running the next play, Tampa Bay didn't hurry the snap. It appeared the Lions had plenty of time to challenge. If successful, it would have resulted in a third-and-long. Instead, Mayfield beat an all-out blitz by throwing a screen to Rachaad White that resulted in the game-tying TD. It's possible the Lions didn't challenge because they didn't want to lose a valuable timeout if it wasn't successful. Otherwise, it may have been a missed opportunity for the Lions.
• As the game moved to the fourth quarter, the Lions scored touchdowns on consecutive drives to put the game away. Tampa Bay scored a late TD to close the game to one score, but the Lions closed it out.
• After the 49ers looked mortal against the Packers, I won't sell the Lions short next week. I do expect the 49ers got their toughest playoff game out of the way, and I predict they'll win. However, I definitely think Detroit is capable of pulling off the upset.
• Tampa Bay had a great season after many analysts counted them out in September. However, the defense had a number of good players. On offense, Mayfield had a much better season that we've seen from him in many years. I assume they'll have similar offensive personnel next year. If they can keep their main stars healthy, they could repeat as NFC South champs.

Chiefs at Bills

• As expected, this game was far different than what we saw from these teams in past years. The one thing that was similar to those past games was that the defenses were basically irrelevant.
• The big difference from the Bills of year's past was their reliance on the run game. Before halftime, the Bills had 124 yards on the ground to 111 yards through the air. Not only did they jump out to an early lead, but they controlled the clock. It was clear early on that the Chiefs' defense had few answers for the Buffalo running game. 
• Meanwhile, the Chiefs had a bit more balance on offense. It was clear that the Kansas City coaching staff realized the Bills were short-handed at linebacker. Therefore, when they weren't running the ball, they were finding mismatches with pass catchers, especially in the intermediate area of the field.
• The only first half possession that didn't result in points (aside from the 20 seconds that KC possessed the ball before intermission) was when the Bills punted in the second quarter. Since they had the first possession of the game, the extra drive allowed Buffalo to go into the locker room with a 17-13 lead.
• In the second half, the teams kept scoring with relative ease. Finally, the first defensive stop came early in the fourth quarter, courtesy of the Chiefs' defense. On fourth-and-five, the Chiefs had just 10 players on the field, and the Bills faked a punt. Drue Tranquill made an amazing play. That led to Kansas City taking over near the Bills' 30-yard line. On the next play, Isiah Pacheco ran the ball inside the 5-yard line. Already leading 27-24, a touchdown may have given the Chiefs an insurmountable lead.
• As he has a tendency to do, Andy Reid got cute with the opportunity to open up that double-digit lead. Instead of giving the ball back to Pacheco or throwing to Travis Kelce, the play call was a toss to Mecole Hardman. What could go wrong? You guessed it. Hardman fumbled the ball and it rolled out of bounds in the end zone. And everyone knows that rule! The Bills took over at the 20-yard line. Again, I was stunned that such an important play went to a player who hasn't exactly been reliable. Maybe I shouldn't have been surprised. This year, more than ever, it feels as if the Kansas City coaching staff has made more big mistakes than I can remember.
• Fourth quarters of close playoff games often take on a life of their own. After three quarters of these teams moving the ball at will, we had three punts (and the Hardman fumble) on consecutive drives. It was noticeable that the offenses were playing tighter than they were for the first 45 minutes. With about five minutes left, the Bills were fortunate, as Josh Allen had the ball stripped out on a rushing attempt, but they recovered. All of this craziness took place in about a 10-minute stretch of game action. Every play had me on the edge of my seat.
• Of course, a Bills-Chiefs game always needs to come down to the end. The Bills were in field-goal range and looking to send the game to overtime. There was 1:43 left in the game. Tyler Bass trotted onto the field for a 44-yard kick. To the shock of Bills' fans, Bass missed the kick wide right. After the miss, two Pacheco runs moved the chains, allowing Mahomes to kneel  and end the game. Wow. Just wow! This was a classic.
• From a production standpoint, Travis Kelce was fantastic in the first half, but was much less active after intermission. Despite catching just five passes, the star TE posted 75 yards and caught both of Patrick Mahomes' TD passes. Isiah Pacheco continued to run hard and make the most of his touches. On 16 touches, the running back posted 111 yards and a TD.
• The incredible story for me is that the Chiefs struggled this season. The offense looked disjointed. Patrick Mahomes was a QB2 in fantasy from Week 10 on. Travis Kelce didn't play his best football. But, give credit to Kansas City. It went into a tough road venue against an excellent team and came out victorious. The Chiefs are underdogs to the Ravens next week. It's possible that Baltimore wins easily. However, I'm not ruling out the Chiefs.
• On the Buffalo side, aside from Josh Allen, not one player had great numbers. Allen rushed for 72 yards and accounted for three TDs. Otherwise, James Cook had 22 touches but failed to reach four yards per touch (82 yards total).
• The Bills had a weird season. About eight weeks ago, many thought they'd miss the playoffs. They started to balance out their offense. As a result, they earned the No. 2 seed. Regardless, it'll be another painful offseason for Bills fans. I still expect them to be one of the top teams in the AFC in 2024, but they really need to advance deeper in the playoffs before the organization needs to start turning over the personnel.