NFL Game Previews: Conference Championship Matchups

SUNDAY

Kansas City (+3.5) at Baltimore, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 3:00 p.m. EST

Last week's divisional-round game between KC and Buffalo ended up being dueling Michael Jordan memes, as Patrick Mahomes got fed up hearing about how it was his first career road playoff game, while Bills fans had to suffer through another wide right. Fortunately it doesn't seem like Shirtless Jason Kelce is also a meme (yet), but his brother's big game couldn't have come at a better time. Travis Kelce snapped his longest TD drought since he was a rookie with last week's two-touchdown performance, and you could argue it was the longest of his career if you count the Week 18 game he sat out. Kansas City's offense still isn't close to peak form, but if Mahomes-to-Kelce is clicking – they're now the QB-receiver duo with the most postseason TDs in NFL history, topping Brady-to-Gronk – the AFC West champs at least have a puncher's chance. The defense remains the strength of the team, though. The 24 points Buffalo managed last week was the most DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit had allowed since Week 13, and nobody has managed to rack up 400 yards of offense against them all year.

On the other hand, the KC defense has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, and Josh Allen exploited those issues to the tune of 72 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground last week. So it's probably not a great sign that Lamar Jackson also ran for two scores last week against the Texans while posting 100 yards on the ground, something he did only once during the regular season. Jackson hadn't run in a touchdown since Week 7, but he hadn't needed to with the rest of the roster firing on all cylinders. The Ravens were simply dominant this year – their four losses were all by single scores, so they weren't all that far off from a perfect regular season, and it's hard to find too many flaws with a squad that finished fourth in points per game scored and first in points per game allowed. Baltimore is also poised to get an emotional lift from the return of Mark Andrews, who went down in Week 11 and missed the last six regular-season contests plus the divisional round. Isaiah Likely's been a beast in his absence, catching five of Jackson's last 13 touchdown passes (plus one more in Week 18 with Tyler Huntley under center) and Andrews probably won't be ready to handle more than a handful of snaps, but if Jackson sees an opportunity to get his long-time tight end his first career postseason TD, you know he's going to take it.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (questionable, toe)
BAL injuries: TE Andrews (IR-R, ankle)

KC DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Jackson (KC 31st in rushing yards allowed to QBs, t-26th in rushing TDs allowed to QBs), Ravens DST (t-1st in takeaways, first in sacks, KC t-23rd in giveaways)

KC DFS fades: Mahomes (BAL first in passing DVOA, sixth in net passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (BAL first in DVOA vs. WR2, first in DVOA vs. deep throws) 
BAL DFS fades: Zay Flowers (KC fifth in DVOA vs. WR1), Rashod Bateman (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3, fourth in DVOA vs. deep throws)

Key stat: KC was 17th in red-zone conversions during the regular season at 54.1 percent (33-for-61); BAL was second in red-zone defense at 40.8 percent (20-for-49)

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 60-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pacheco gets held to 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Kelce and Rashee Rice. Justice Hill leads the BAL backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Gus Edwards also bangs in a short score. Jackson throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Andrews while also running in a score of his own. Ravens 28-17

Detroit (+7) at San Francisco, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST

Full disclosure: as a massive Barry Sanders fan when I was younger, I would love nothing more than to see the Lions get to their first title game since before the title game was called the Super Bowl. Detroit hasn't even been to an NFC Championship Game since 1991, when they got routed by a Washington team that went on to win it all under Mark Rypien, and their last appearance in an NFL championship game came against the Browns in 1957, Jim Brown's rookie season. (Tobin Rote threw four TDs as the Lions won it all, if you were wondering.) It would be very easy for this team to simply be happy to be here and fold it up against a statistically superior foe, but would you want to have to face Dan Campbell in the locker room afterward? Didn't think so. Last time we saw Jared Goff play outdoors he was throwing for 161 yards and getting picked off twice by the Bears, but the weather may not be too bad for this one, and the QB's home-road splits were overall not as wildly divergent in 2023 as in prior years. The key for Detroit might be their ground game, though. Aaron Jones ran for over 100 yards last week against the Niners, and San Francisco's run defense has shown other cracks over the last month or so – the Cardinals' James Connor and Emari Demercado, the Great Value version of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, combined for 150 rushing yards and two TDs back in Week 15.

The other bit of optimism Detroit can carry into this one involves Deebo Samuel's shoulder. When Samuel's been healthy this season, the 49ers looked an awful lot like the best team in the NFL. In the regular-season games during which Deebo played over 30 snaps, they went 12-1. (The one loss? Week 16 against the Ravens.) Without him able to handle his usual workload, San Francisco went 0-4 before finally winning one in the divisional round against Green Bay when the wideout/YAC machine got knocked out after only nine snaps and two catches. The Packers' secondary was worse than the Lions' unit this season, but not by a whole lot, and Detroit's defense through the air is seemingly the only true weakness of any of the four remaining teams. Brock Purdy did look a bit shaky last week, though, and the Lions' run defense might be up to the task of containing Christian McCaffrey, at least on the ground. I'm trying hard to convince myself there's a path to an upset here, but the numbers say otherwise.

The Skinny

DET injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, ribs), TE Sam LaPorta (questionable, knee), LB Alex Anzalone (questionable, ribs)
SF injuries: WR Samuel (questionable, shoulder)

DET DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: Purdy (DET 27th in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed, 27th in passing TDs allowed), Brandon Aiyuk (DET 23rd in DVOA vs. WR1, 24th in DVOA vs. deep throws)

DET DFS fades: Jameson Williams (SF third in DVOA vs. WR2), Sam LaPorta (SF fourth in DVOA vs. TE), Lions DST (t-23rd in sacks, SF t-6th in giveaways, t-6th in sacks allowed)
SF DFS fades: McCaffrey (DET first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)

Key stat: SF was first in the regular season in red-zone conversions at 67.2 percent (45-for-67); DET was 29th in red-zone defense at 66.0 percent

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Montgomery also punches in a score. Goff throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Amon-Ra St. Brown. McCaffrey erupts for 130 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 340 yards and three more scores, two to Aiyuk (who tops 100 yards) and one to George Kittle. 49ers 38-27

Last week's record: 3-1, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 o/u
2023 playoff record: 6-4, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 o/u
2023 regular-season record: 162-110, 126-136-10 ATS, 148-121-3 o/u