NFL Game Previews: Seahawks-Football Team Matchup

Seattle (+1) at Washington, o/u 46.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Speaking of struggling offenses, the Seahawks have managed a meager 13 points in two games since Russell Wilson rejoined the lineup, and with the team at 3-7 maybe they shouldn't have bothered rushing him back. Russ should be back to his usual self eventually (he says, staring mournfully at his DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett shares), but Seattle's season will be long over by the time he does. Those offensive struggles have disguised what has been a pretty good year for the defense. They haven't been Legion of Boom good, but they also haven't given up 30 points in a game since Week 3 and have held five consecutive opponents to 23 or less. Bobby Wagner probably deserves some consideration for Defensive Player of the Year for holding the unit together. Washington's won consecutive games coming out of its bye to keep the team's flagging wild-card hopes alive, and getting Ron Rivera a victory in his return to Carolina was pretty sweet. The good version of Taylor Heinicke has shown back up, but he could Jekyll and Hyde his way into a loss any time, and while there is talent around him in the offense — especially if Logan Thomas makes his return — Heinicke hasn't been able to take consistent advantage of it, and the team being down to its third-string center won't help matters. The defense has also recovered from its early season struggles, but without Chase Young to led the way it could only be a matter of time until it falls apart again.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Alex Collins (questionable, abdomen), RB Rashaad Penny (questionable, hamstring), RB Travis Homer (questionable, calf), LG Damien Lewis (questionable, elbow), RT Brandon Shell (questionable, shoulder), LB Jordyn Brooks (questionable, hip), CB D.J. Reed (questionable, knee)

WAS injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, groin), WR Adam Humphries (questionable, hip), TE Thomas (IR, hamstring), TE Ricky Seals-Jones (doubtful, hip), C Tyler Larsen (out, knee), RT Samuel Cosmi (out, hip), DE Montez Sweat (IR, jaw)

SEA DFS targets: Wilson $6,200 DK / $7,500 FD (WAS 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in TD% allowed), Lockett $6,300 DK / $6,800 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS targets: Heinicke $5,400 DK / $7,300 FD (SEA 25th in passing DVOA, 30th in passing yards per game allowed), J.D. McKissic $4,900 DK / $5,300 FD (SEA 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

SEA DFS fades: none

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: WAS is 31st in red-zone conversions at 46.9 percent; SEA is fifth in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: DeeJay Dallas leads the SEA backfield with 60 yards. Wilson erupts for 330 yards and four scores, hitting Lockett (who tops 100 yards) twice and Metcalf and Dee Eskridge once each. Antonio Gibson gains 80 yards, while McKissic collects 80 combined yards and a receiving TD. Heinicke throws for 270 yards and a second touchdown to DeAndre Carter but gets picked off twice. Seahawks 28-20

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (+3), o/u 52.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bucs haven't actually been sharp lately, losing games on either side of their bye before bouncing back against the Giants last week, but the struggles of the rest of the NFC South have left them with a bit of a cushion atop the division. Tom Brady got Rob Gronkowski back, but he still didn't quite look like himself, and the QB has been picked off five times in the last three games while failing to reach a 7.0 YPA in three of the last four. Of course, he also has 12 TD passes in those four games, so we're not exactly in Sam Darnold territory here. The Bucs will be taking on a Colts squad that's one of the hottest in the league, winning three straight and six of seven with the only loss in that stretch coming in overtime. Jonathan Taylor has been an absolute beast this season, and Frank Reich's embrace of that has been a big part of Indy's success — the second-year back has reeled off eight consecutive games with triple-digit scrimmage yards and at least one rushing touchdown (15 TDs in total, 13 rushing and two receiving) while averaging 6.3 yards per carry over that rampage. His streak will be put to the test against one of the best run defenses in the NFL, though Tampa Bay has a couple of key defenders, including nose tackle Vita Vea, nursing injuries. If Taylor gets rolling downhill, it would have the added benefit of keeping Brady off the field, but he hasn't needed many chances to put points on the board.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Antonio Brown (out, ankle), LG Ali Marpat (doubtful, abdomen), LB Devin White (questionable, quadriceps)

IND injuries: LG Quenton Nelson (questionable, ankle), K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip), LB Darius Leonard (questionable, ankle), S Khari Willis (IR, calf)

TB DFS targets: Giovani Bernard $4,900 DK / $5,000 FD (IND 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Mike Evans $&,200 DK / $7,500 FD (IND 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

IND DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none

IND DFS fades: Jonathan Taylor $9,100 DK / $9,800 FD (TB first in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed), T.Y. Hilton $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (TB third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: TB is ninth in red-zone conversions at 64.4 percent; IND is 29th in red-zone defense at 69.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette picks up 70 yards and a TD. Brady throws for 320 yards and three scores, finding Evans (who tops 100 yards), Bernard and Gronk. Taylor reaches 100 scrimmage yards but can't find the end zone. Carson Wentz throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Michael Pittman and Jack Doyle. Bucs 28-23

N.Y. Jets (+2.5) at Houston, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

After giving their rookie QB a month off to recover from a knee injury and get his head together, the Jets will turn the reins back over to Zach Wilson — not because they want to, but because their other options landed on the COVID-19 list. It's not exactly a vote of confidence in Wilson, but he hardly earned one after posting a sub-60 percent completion rate, 6.5 YPA and woeful 4:9 TD:INT through his first six NFL starts. He's rejoining a passing game that has a little different look to it than the one he left, however, as Elijah Moore erupted for 24-336-4 on 31 targets over the four games Wilson missed. It's reasonable to wonder if Moore will crash back to earth without, err, anyone else under center, but maybe the two rookies can boost each other's performances. The Texans are coming off a win over the disintegrating Titans, and another victory would have them in danger of losing a top-5 pick next year, but somebody has to win this battle of 2-8 teams (probably). Tyrod Taylor has returned to the lineup with back-to-back poor passing efforts, but he made up for it by running in two scores against Tennessee. The two teams have similarly talent-deficient rosters, so this one likely will be decided by whoever makes the fewest mistakes and turnovers. That was seem to favor the steadier veteran hand of Taylor over Wilson's nervous pro start, but the two QBs each have a game on their ledger this season with three-plus INTs, so it's not a given that's an advantage for the Texans.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Joe Flacco (questionable, COVID-19), QB Mike White (out, COVID-19), RB Michael Carter (out, ankle), WR Corey Davis (doubtful, groin), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (questionable, shoulder)

HOU injuries: QB Deshaun Watson (out), WR Nico Collins (questionable, hip), LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, thumb), C Justin Britt (IR, knee), DE Jonathan Greenard (out, foot), LB Christian Kirksey (IR, thumb)

NYJ DFS targets: Keelan Cole $3,100 DK / $4,900 FD (HOU 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)

HOU DFS targets: Taylor $5,300 DK / $7,400 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed), David Johnson $4,500 DK / $5,400 FD and Rex Burkhead $4,200 DK / $5,700 FD (NYJ 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Chris Conley $3,900 DK / $5,200 FD (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Pharaoh Brown $2,800 DK / $4,500 FD and Brevin Jordan $2,500 DK / $4,600 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

NYJ DFS fades: Moore $5,600 DK / $6,400 FD (HOU fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)

HOU DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU is t-19th in third-down conversions at 38.5 percent; NYJ are t-24th in third-down defense at 43.1 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Ty Johnson leads the NYJ backfield with 60 combined yards. Wilson throws for 250 yards and TDs to Cole and Ryan Griffin, but he gets intercepted three times, including a pick-six to Neville Hewitt (revenge game!). DJ leads the HOU backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Taylor throws for 230 yards and a score to Conley. Texans 30-17

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (+3.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Originally, I was mostly going to talk about Jason Garrett getting canned, but instead I find I have to do a bit of a deep dive on how the sausage gets made instead. My usual process is to determine the projected scores in games, then pull spreads, then tweak the projected scores if they happen to exactly match the spread or over/under total (to take an actual side). After that, I'll do final tweaks based on big injuries and weather, then pull all the stats I plug into the "Skinny" section, then write up this section and the "Scoop." I hit an issue with this game, though. I had the teams coming out as roughly equal, which meant a Giants win once home field was factored in. When I started pulling those stats, though, I couldn't find any area in which NYG was actually better than PHI that I could use for a "Key stat." Nothing. The Eagles came out better everywhere I looked. As a result, I had to flip the projected winner (though I did give NYG the win against the spread with that hook), something I pretty much never do. In other words, expect a Giants rout or something, though I have no clue how they'd pull it off. The Eagles have won three of four, scoring at least 30 points in all three victories, and they actually have a shot at catching the reeling Cowboys in the NFC East. Jalen Hurts still isn't much as a passer, throwing for less than 200 yards in all four of those games (and six of his last seven overall), but Philly is basically the NFC version of the Ravens now, leaning heavily on their QB-led running game and only throwing it when they have to, either to their one exciting young receiver or a tight end. The Giants have been alternating wins and losses since mid-October, so if the pattern holds they'll pull out a victory somehow, and to their credit the defense has held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less despite routinely giving up a lot of yards. Saquon Barkley didn't look quite like himself in his return last week, and Daniel Jones hasn't reached 250 passing yards since Week 4 with a 5:6 TD:INT and 5.6 YPA in the six games since, so there may not be much hope of the offense doing its part, even with Garrett's "aspire to mediocrity" game plan gone.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB Jordan Howard (out, knee), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral), DE Brandon Graham (IR, Achilles)

NYG injuries: RB Barkley (questionable, ankle), WR Sterling Shepard (out, quadriceps), WR Kadarius Toney (doubtful, quadriceps), S Logan Ryan (questionable, COVID-19)

PHI DFS targets: Miles Sanders $5,100 DK / $6,100 FD and Boston Scott $4,000 DK / $5,200 FD (NYG 30th in rushing DVOA)

NYG DFS targets: Evan Engram $3,800 DK / $5,500 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is fourth in third-down conversions at 46.1 percent; NYG are 11th in third-down defense at 38.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 PHI, average score 26-22 PHI, average margin of victory eight points. PHI won eight straight meetings before a 27-17 NYG victory in Week 10 of last season. Eight of the last 11 meetings have been decided by a single score

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sanders leads the PHI backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Scott adds 60 yards. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards but hits DeVonta Smith for one TD while running in another. Barkley puts together 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Jones throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Engram and Kenny Golladay, but he also throws a late back-breaking INT. Eagles 24-21

Carolina at Miami (+1.5), o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

So maybe the return of Cam Newton wasn't the solution to the Panthers' problems after all. Last week's loss to Washington dropped Carolina back below .500, and while the offense was a little more productive than it had been under Sam Darnold or P.J. Walker, that might have had a bit more to do with Christian McCaffrey than Cam. To be fair, the 32-year-old QB was reasonably efficient, but as had been the case before he left town the first time, he couldn't stretch the field — Newton's longest completion to a wide receiver last week went for only 13 yards, and it's not like DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are slouches. The defense is still good enough to keep things close, but this looks like a team destined to lose a lot of games down the stretch by a single score. The Dolphins have won three consecutive games, one of them even against a credible opponent in the Ravens, but they still have a big hole to climb out of at 4-7. Tua Tagovailoa continues to tease some upside despite a short-handed receiving corps, and a big finish to the campaign might be enough to let him keep the starting job in 2022. The defense is also getting back to its ball-hawking ways, generating seven takeaways and allowing only 12.0 points a game during the winning streak, so Miami might be positioning itself to play spoiler for somebody after Christmas. Five turnovers against the Texans and Jets is more like three against competitive clubs, though, so the Dolphins still have a lot to prove on that side of the ball.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: LT Cameron Erving (IR, calf), RG John Miller (doubtful, ankle), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot)

MIA injuries: WR DeVante Parker (IR, shoulder), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), C Michael Deiter (IR, foot), C Greg Mancz (IR, ankle)

CAR DFS targets: Brandon Zylstra $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Ian Thomas $2,500 DK / $4,200 FD and Tommy Tremble $2,500 DK / $4,600 FD (MIA 29th in DVOA vs. TE), Panthers DEF $3,100 DK / $4,700 FD (third in sacks, MIA 30th in giveaways)

MIA DFS targets: Jaylen Waddle $5,900 DK / $6,700 FD (CAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Mack Hollins $3,300 DK / $5,300 FD (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CAR DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: Albert Wilson $3,100 DK / $4,900 FD (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2), Mike Gesicki $5,300 DK / $6,200 FD (CAR third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: CAR is t-22nd in red-zone conversions at 56.3 percent; MIA is sixth in red-zone defense at 51.2 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: CMac piles up 120 scrimmage yards and a TD. Newton throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Zylstra. Myles Gaskin manages 70 yards. Tua throws for 260 yards and two scores, both to Waddle. Dolphins 23-20

Tennessee (+6.5) at New England, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Titans did an admirable job keeping themselves afloat despite their brutal rash of injuries, but last week's loss to the Texans could be the beginning of a huge slide. This is a team down its top two running backs, top two wide receivers and top three linebackers, with assorted other injuries scattered about the roster as well. Ryan Tannehill thrives when he can let other people have the spotlight; when the weight of the team is on his shoulders, he buckles, and guys like Chester Rogers and MyCole Pruitt aren't going to help him carry that load much. The Patriots, on the other hand, are a well-oiled machine where no one (other than the wizard on the sidelines and his weird homunculus assistant) has to do anything more than their job, and they're ridden a five-game winning streak to the top of the AFC East. Mac Jones is getting praised heaped all over him for a great rookie season, but the operate word there is "rookie," as he's really only been solid and competent. That just happens to be a massive improvement on the rest of his 2021 draft cohort. It's the defense that have been the real stars, even if most fans couldn't name two of the unit's starters. New England has multiple takeaways in five of the last six games and held its last three opponents to a combined 13 points, which is simply absurd. Somebody might solve the Pats eventually (their next three games: Buffalo-Indy-Buffalo), but this version of the Titans just doesn't seem to have the horses to do it.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: RB Derrick Henry (IR, foot), RB Jeremy McNichols (out, concussion), WR A.J. Brown (out, chest), WR Julio Jones (IR, hamstring), TE Geoff Swaim (questionable, concussion), RG Nate Davis (out, concussion), LB David Long (out, hamstring), LB Rashaan Evans (out, ankle), LB Jayon Brown (questionable, quadriceps), OLB Bud Dupree (IR, abdomen)

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, neck), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (questionable, knee), TE Hunter Henry (questionable, neck), RT Trent Brown (questionable, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (questionable, ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, ribs)

TEN DFS targets: none

NE DFS targets: Patriots DEF $3,900 DK / $5,000 FD (third in takeaways, first in points per game allowed, TEN t-28th in sacks allowed)

TEN DFS fades: Tannehill $6,100 DK / $7,200 FD (NE second in passing DVOA, third in TD% allowed), Rogers $3,500 DK / $5,300 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,000 DK / $5,700 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR3), Swaim $2,600 DK / $4,400 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE)

NE DFS fades: H. Henry $4,500 DK / $5,600 FD (TEN sixth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: TEN is 15th in third-down conversions at 40.5 percent; NE is sixth in third-down defense at 35.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: D'Onta Foreman picks up 60 yards. Tannehill throws for 220 yards and a TD to Dontrell Hilliard but gets picked off twice. Harris leads the NE backfield with 70 yards and a score. Jones throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, while Chase Winovich returns a fumble to the house. Patriots 31-13

Pittsburgh (+4.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Man, has this rivalry ever been flipped on its head. It wasn't long ago the Bengals couldn't buy a win over the Steelers; now they're favored by more than a field goal at home against them. Both teams remain firmly in the mix in the AFC North, but the close outcomes are starting to go against Pittsburgh, as they barely escaped with a tie against the winless Lions then came up short against the Chargers last week. Injuries on the defensive side had a lot to do with that — the 41 points Justin Herbert hung on them was the first time all year the Steelers had given up more than 27 — but the offense has also mostly been stuck in neutral, and that game also represented the first time in 2021 the team had scored more than 29. Najee Harris is increasingly the centerpiece of the offense, which isn't great when the RB in question has a 3.6 YPC, but with Ben Roethlisberger playing through injuries it's not like they have a lot of choice in the matter. Cincy came out of its bye with a resounding win in Las Vegas, the fourth time this season they've won by two touchdowns or more, including a 24-10 pasting of Pittsburgh back in Week 3. The two-Joe offense has leaned more on Joe Mixon than Joe Burrow the last couple weeks, but the young QB is capable of firing it back up at the drop of a hat, and after tossing only one TD the last two games, Burrow could be itching to air it out. Ja'Marr Chase was on the other end of two of his three touchdown passes in that Week 3 win, but that was with Tee Higgins sidelined. Like his quarterback, Higgins is likely feeling frisky after not finding the end zone since Week 2.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: LG Kevin Dotson (IR, ankle), LG J.C. Hassenauer (out, pectoral), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed), CB Joe Haden (out, foot)

CIN injuries: RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (IR, knee), CB Trae Waynes (IR, hamstring)

PIT DFS targets: none

CIN DFS targets: Mixon $7,500 DK / $8,000 FD (PIT 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

PIT DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: PIT is 17th in red-zone conversions at 58.1 percent; CIN is t-11th in red-zone defense at 54.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 PIT, average score 23-16 PIT, average margin of victory 11 points. CIN has won two straight meetings, including a 24-10 victory in Week 3, after losing 11 straight

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 10-12 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris manages 70 yards. Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth. Mixon racks up 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Burrow throws for 310 yards and three TDs, finding Chase, Higgins (who tops 100 yards) and C.J. Uzomah. Bengals 34-20

Atlanta at Jacksonville (PK), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Falcons are in free fall, having lost their last two games by a combined 68-3. Sure, it was against the Cowboys and Patriots, but that's still inexcusable. Matt Ryan looks old, throwing for less than 200 yards in the team's last three losses with a 1:6 TD:INT, but it doesn't help that the only healthy, dangerous weapon he has left is a rookie tight end. The Jags are, well, the Jags, 2-8 and currently with the third pick in the 2022 draft. Trevor Lawrence has been terrible, stumbling to a 56.4 percent completion rate and 4.8 YPA in four games since the team's bye, but he at least has only thrown one INT in that time (against one TD, but still). Like Ryan, the skill talent missing from the lineup is greater than the healthy options available to Lawrence any given week, and the team hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game all season and topped 20 points only three times. Even a matchup against Atlanta's generous defense can't be counted on to wake them up. Somebody's got to win this one I guess, but don't expect it to be pretty.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: RB Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, ankle), WR Calvin Ridley (out, personal), LB Deion Jones (questionable, shoulder)

JAC injuries: WR Jamal Agnew (IR, hip), C Brandon Linder (IR, knee), CB Shaquill Griffin (out, concussion) 

ATL DFS targets: Ryan $5,500 DK / $7,100 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed), Russell Gage $5,100 DK / $5,700 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Tajae Sharpe $3,900 DK / $5,000 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

JAC DFS targets: Trevor Lawrence $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (ATL 29th in passing DVOA, 29th in TD% allowed), Laviska Shenault $4,400 DK / $5,600 FD (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 32nd in third-down conversions at 31.7 percent; ATL is 30th in third-down defense at 45.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Patterson leads the ATL backfield with 90 combined yards and a score. Ryan throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Gage and Kyle Pitts. James Robinson gains 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for 240 yards and a TD to Marvin Jones. Falcons 24-23

L.A. Chargers at Denver (+2.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Oh goodie, a game between teams that usually do the opposite of what I expect them to do. Can we get the Vikings in here too for a three-way tussle? The Chargers are 2-2 since their bye with every game being decided by a single score, and they continue to be only as successful as their second-year QB. Justin Herbert put up 738 passing yards and a 5:1 TD:INT in those two wins, but 418 yards and a 3:3 TD:INT in the two losses. Part of the problem has been a banged-up offensive line that could be missing three starters this week, and had T.J. Watt been healthy for the Steelers last week to get after Herbert, he might have made a big difference in the outcome. Mike Williams snapped out of his scoring drought in that win, though, and the Bolts have one of the most dangerous offenses in the league when Herbert has time to survey the field. The Broncos also have some o-line issues and are likely to be without both their starting tackles, though, which could pose problems for Teddy Bridgewater. The 29-year-old has done his best to shed his dink-and-dunk label this year and take advantage of a talented receiving corps of his own, but that could be tough to do if Joey Bosa if in his face all afternoon. Fortunately, Denver may not need Bridgewater to air it out against one of the league's worst run defenses. Both the team's RBs have flashed at times this season, and this could be the game where they both put up big numbers.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: LG Matt Feiler (questionable, ankle), RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back)

DEN injuries: LT Garett Bolles (questionable, COVID-19), RT Bobby Massie (doubtful. Ankle), OLB Bradley Chubb (IR, ankle), S Kareem Jackson (doubtful, neck)

LAC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS targets: Melvin Gordon $5,300 DK / $6,300 FD and Javonte Williams $5,200 DK / $5,700 FD (LAC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPC allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed)

LAC DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: DEN is 27th in third-down conversions at 34.6 percent; LAC are 31st in third-down defense at 46.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DEN, average score 21-19 LAC, average margin of victory seven points. Nine of the last 11 meetings have been decided by a single score, but the two exceptions were both LAC victories. DEN is 7-1 in the last eight meetings at Mile High

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Austin Ekeler collects 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Herbert manages 240 yards and a TD to Keenan Allen. Williams leads the DEN backfield with 100 yards and a touchdown, while Gordon adds 80 yards and a score. Bridgewater throws for 250 yards and a TD to Noah Fant. Broncos 27-20

L.A. Rams at Green Bay (+1), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Rams come out of their bye healthy and presumably focused on catching the Cards in the NFC West. They'd lost two straight before their break, including what was effectively a no-show against the Niners, which wasn't a good sign for a team built to win the Super Bowl. Defenses seem to have adapted to the Cooper Kupp show by taking a page out of some basketball playbooks — if you can't stop the other team's superstar, just let him get his and make sure no one else beats you. Kupp had 22-217-0 on 26 targets in those two losses, but Matthew Stafford had a 2:4 TD:INT and 6.0 YPA. With Robert Woods lost for the season, the Rams might really need Odell Beckham to be more than a passenger down the stretch. The Packers have a firm hold of the NFC North and are one game back of Arizona for the No. 1 seed in the conference, but they're looking shaky too, losing two of their last three. Aaron Rodgers avoided the final injury report of the week, but the image of his toe is probably seared into the brains of a lot of reporters. Does anyone else feel like Rodgers needs to hire the best PR person in the business, like yesterday? This season has been one public faceplant after another for him, even if it hasn't affected him on the field much, and it seems like he's mere days away from jumping on Oprah's couch. Given that the Packers are down to a third-string left tackle, trying to jump out of Aaron Donald's way might have to suffice.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: none

GB injuries: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, knee), WR Allen Lazard (questionable, shoulder), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), LT Elgton Jenkins (IR, knee), C Josh Myers (IR, knee), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, shoudler), CB Kevin King (doubtful, hip)

LAR DFS targets: Tyler Higbee $4,200 DK / $5,400 FD (GB 26th in DVOA vs. TE)

GB DFS targets: Davante Adams $8,600 DK / $8,700 FD (LAR 22nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAR DFS fades: Van Jefferson $4,900 DK / $5,400 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)

GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB is ninth in third-down conversions at 42.5 percent; LAR are 23rd in third-down defense at 42.9 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, 11-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Darrell Henderson picks up 60 yards. Stafford throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Kupp and Higbee. Jones sits out again as AJ Dillon rumbles for 100 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Adams. Packers 23-20

Minnesota (+3) at San Francisco, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Vikings have won consecutive games against playoff-caliber opponents to stay in the playoff picture, including a huge victory last week over the Packers that kept their faint hopes of an NFC North title alive. The defense has not been up to Mike Zimmer's standards, coughing up more than 400 yards in three of four games since the team's Week 7 bye, but Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson have fired up enough offense to keep Minnesota in every game — they're only played one game all year decided by more than one score. The Niners have an identical 5-5 record after also winning two straight (and three of four), and offense has been the name of their game too with the team posting 30-plus in all three of those recent wins. Jimmy Garoppolo might be delaying the ascension of Trey Lance well past the beginning of next season, ringing up an 8.0 YPA or better in four consecutive with a 6:1 TD:INT, and his turnaround has helped keep the pressure off a backfield that hasn't been able to find an effective lead back who can last more than a couple games for Kyle Shanahan without breaking down. With neither coach playing the game they'd rather be playing, this one could be a chaotic mess — my favorite game plan of all.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: DE Everson Griffen (out, personal)

SF injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell (questionable, finger), RB JaMycal Hasty (out, ankle), DE Dee Ford (IR, back), LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, groin)

MIN DFS targets: K.J. Osborn $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (SF 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS targets: Brandon Aiyuk $5,300 DK / $6,300 FD (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIN DFS fades: Tyler Conklin $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (SF seventh in DVOA vs. TE)

SF DFS fades: 49ers DEF $3,100 DK / $4,000 FD (MIN second in sacks allowed, t-1st in giveaways)

Key stat: MIN is fifth in red-zone conversions at 67.7 percent; SF is t-18th in red-zone defense at 61.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook racks up 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 300 yards and two TDs, finding Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and Osborn. Jeff Wilson leads the SF backfield with 60 yards and a score, while Lance also runs in a red-zone TD. Garoppolo throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, but he comes up short on a potential game-winning drive at the end of the game. Vikings 30-28

Cleveland (+3.5) at Baltimore, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

This is a classic AFC North battle, in that neither team is close to 100 percent healthy and not likely to come out of this one in better shape than when they came in. The Browns are 6-5 but in the basement in the NFL's tightest division, and they've been alternating wins and losses for more than a month now. Kevin Stefanski is in an almost impossible situation with Baker Mayfield, who desperately needs time off to heal up, but even while hobbling around still arguably gives his team a better chance to win than Case Keenum. Cleveland has a bye next week, so if he were ever going to sit it would be for this one, but that's not going to happen against the hated Ravens. If Kareem Hunt makes it back into the lineup to put the running game back at full strength, that would at least take some pressure off Mayfield. Baltimore's on top of the division at 7-3, but the MVP talk around Lamar Jackson has quieted down after the team failed to score more than 17 points in two of his last three starts, though the offense certainly didn't look any better last week when he was sidelined with a mysterious illness. Between the patchwork backfield and Marquise Brown not being 100 percent healthy, it's a wonder he can produce any points at all, but mystery illnesses kind of force you to ask questions like, "How long has he actually been feeling fatigued?" and "How can the Ravens be sure he's fully recovered?"

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RB Hunt (questionable, calf), WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (questionable, groin), WR Anthony Schwartz (out, concussion), RT Jack Conklin (questionable, elbow)

BAL injuries: WR Brown (questionable, thigh), RT Patrick Mekari (questionable, ankle), DE Calais Campbell (questionable, concussion), CB Marcus Peters (IR, knee), CB Anthony Averett (questionable, thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, neck)

CLE DFS targets: Mayfield $5,100 DK / $6,600 FD (BAL 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed)

BAL DFS targets: Devin Duvernay $3,800 DK / $5,200 FD (CLE 23rd in DVOA vs. WR3)

CLE DFS fades: none

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL is t-6th in red-zone conversions at 66.7 percent; CLE is 28th in red-zone defense at 69.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 BAL, average score 28-19 BAL, average margin of victory 13 points. Six of the last nine meetings have been decided by 14 points or more

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 8-10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Nick Chubb bangs out 80 yards and two scores, while Hunt plays and adds 50 yards and a receiving touchdown. Mayfield throws for 230 yards. Devonta Freeman leads the BAL backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Jackson looks great, throwing for 280 yards and touchdowns to Sammy Watkins and Mark Andrews while running for 50 yards and a score of his own. Ravens 28-24

Chicago at Detroit (+3), 41.5 o/u – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

The Bears have hibernated their way to five consecutive losses, and couldn't even come up with a win last week coming out of their bye against a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens squad. It's to the point that Matt Nagy had to spend the lead-up to this game denying he knows anything about plans to fire him, which isn't quite the same thing as saying there are no plans to fire him. Rookie quarterback Justin Fields, who got hurt against Baltimore, will sit this one out as well, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the team's win probability. Andy Dalton injected some life into the passing game after replacing Fields, and seeing the veteran under center should be a welcome sight for Allen Robinson ... oh, wait, Robinson's hurt too. Welp. That just gives Nagy more reason to lean on David Montgomery, who romped for 106 yards and two TDs in Week 4 against the Lions. Detroit, of course, remains winless, following their tie against a Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers squad with a narrow loss to a Browns team led by a version of Baker Mayfield held together by gauze and (cough) willpower. The Lions have their own QB issues, as Jared Goff is dealing with an oblique issue but seems intent on missing only one game. Heaven forbid he give someone like David Blough or Tim Boyle a chance to steal his job, I guess. With nothing but draft position on the line the Lions have no reason to rush Goff back, but they also have a bit of a bulge on the two-win teams so Dan Campbell can afford to let Goff earn some Tough Guy Points and risk pulling out an ultimately meaningless victory against a division rival.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: QB Fields (out, ribs), WR Robinson (doubtful, hamstring), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable, shoulder), RT Germain Ifedi (IR, knee), DE Akiem Hicks (out, ankle), LB Danny Trevathan (IR, knee), OLB Khalil Mack (IR, foot), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, hamstring), S Tashuan Gipson (questionable, chest)

DET injuries: QB Goff (questionable, oblique), RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai (out, concussion), OLB Trey Flowers (out, knee), CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (IR, thigh)

CHI DFS targets: Dalton $5,500 DK / $7,200 FD (DET 28th in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed, 28th in TD% allowed), Montgomery $6,000 DK / $7,500 FD (DET 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Bears DEF $3,000 DK / $5,500 FD (t-1st in sacks, DET 30th in points per game)

DET DFS targets: Amon-Ra St. Brown $4,200 DK / $5,500 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

CHI DFS fades: none

DET DFS fades: T.J. Hockenson $5,200 DK / $6,100 FD (CHI fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: DET is 30th in red-zone conversions at 47.8 percent; CHI is 14th in red-zone defense at 55.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 CHI, average score 23-20 CHI, average margin of victory six points. CHI has won three straight meetings in Detroit, including the last two Thanksgiving games between them

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Montgomery racks up 120 scrimmage yards and a score. Dalton throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Darnell Mooney and Jakeem Grant. D'Andre Swift gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Goff starts and throws for 240 yards and a TD to St. Brown. Bears 24-23

Las Vegas (+7.5) at Dallas, o/u 51.5 – Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Remember when the Raiders looked like contenders in the AFC West? Ah, those were the days. Three consecutive losses after their bye have sent them into the basement in the division, and while they're still clinging to a .500 record, things look pretty bleak for the silver and black. An offense that took good care of the ball in the first half(-ish) of the season has coughed it up seven times in those three losses, with Derek Carr responsible for six. It's hard to blame him too much, as aside from Darren Waller he just has no reliable help around him, and he increasingly has that frantic look in his eyes of a QB who knows it's all on him to keep the team going, even though he's just not That Guy. Dak Prescott found himself in that position last week as for a brief moment it seemed like he might have no Amari Cooper, no CeeDee Lamb and no Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke eventually made it back into the huddle, though, and Lamb still has a shot at playing Thursday. (Plus, Dak might actually be That Guy). The biggest bit of good news for Dallas will be the return of Tyron Smith to guard Prescott's blind side, though, as the offensive line had a lot of trouble keeping a clean pocket the last two times the team faces an AFC West squad, both rough losses in which the Cowboys scored a total of 25 points.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), RG John Simpson (questionable, ribs), LB Nick Kwiatkoski (out, ankle), CB Trayvon Mullen (IR, toe)

DAL injuries: WR Cooper (out, COVID-19), WR Lamb (questionable, concussion), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), DE Randy Gregory (IR, calf)

LV DFS targets: Waller $6,400 DK / $7,300 FD (DAL 23rd in DVOA vs. TE)

DAL DFS targets: Elliott $8,000 DK / $8,400 FD and Tony Pollard $5,600 DK / $5,900 FD (LV 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 25th in YPC allowed), Dalton Schultz $5,300 DK / $6,000 FD (LV 27th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS fades: Bryan Edwards $3,900 DK / $5,300 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1)

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is 25th in third-down conversions at 35.6 percent; DAL is second in third-down defense at 32.2 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Josh Jacobs manages 60 yards. Carr throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Waller and DeSean Jackson, but he also gets picked off twice including a pick-six by (who else) Trevon Diggs. Elliot leads the DAL backfield with 80 yards, while Pollard adds 60 yards and a score. Prescott throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Schultz and Cedrick Wilson. Cowboys 31-17

Buffalo at New Orleans (+6), o/u 45.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The statistics mostly still say the Bills are among the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball, but their actual results keep coming up short. They're lost three of their last five, getting trucked by both Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor while also simply not showing up in Jacksonville, and the easy narrative would be that they got too full of themselves after beating up Kansas City in Week 5. Good job, now you're looking up at the Patriots in the AFC East, even if only by half a game. On the bright side, the only elite RB left on their schedule is Christian McCaffrey, as Alvin Kamara's knee injury will allow them to duck him in this one. A swoon in November is a lot better than one in January, and Josh Allen (five INTs in the last three games) and the team in general have time to get their house in order, and maybe even reclaim the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Saints are more obviously in trouble, losing three consecutive games while the front office gives a big contract extension to a player Sean Payton doesn't trust more than Trevor Siemian to run the offense. Siemian does have a 7:2 TD:INT over those three losses, but both picks came last week against the Eagles, and his 57.4 percent completion rate and 6.6 YPA over that three-game stretch are a lot less appealing. The New Orleans defense will just have to step up once again — the unit hadn't allowed a team to top 27 points against it all year until last week's flameout against a mobile QB in Jalen Hurts, which doesn't bode well for a clash with Allen, but it might be able to force him into enough mistakes to keep things close.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: LG Jon Feliciano (IR, calf), RT Spencer Brown (questionable, COVID-19) 

NO injuries: RB Kamara (questionable, knee), RB Mark Ingram (questionable, knee), TE Adam Trautman (IR, knee), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, knee), RT Ryan Ramczyk (questionable, knee), DE Marcus Davenport (questionable, shoulder)

BUF DFS targets: Cole Beasley $4,500 DK / $5,700 FD (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Bills DEF $3,100 DK / $4,500 FD (second in takeaways, second in points per game allowed)

NO DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: Zack Moss $4,700 DK / $5,700 FD and Devin Singletary $4,900 DK / $5,800 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Dawson Knox $4,400 DK / $5,900 FD (NO fifth in DVOA vs. TE)

NO DFS fades: Siemian $5,600 DK / $7,000 FD (BUF first in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Marquez Callaway $5,000 DK / $5,700 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Saints DEF $2,900 DK / $3,800 FD (BUF t-3rd in sacks allowed, second in points per game)

Key stat: NO is 21st in third-down conversions at 38.3 percent; BUF is fourth in third-down defense at 33.1 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Moss leads the BUF backfield with 50 yards. Allen throws for 280 yards and TDs to Beasley and Stefon Diggs while running for 40 yards and a score of his own. Ingram puts together 90 yards and a touchdown. Siemian throws for 260 yards but can't get the ball into the end zone. Bills 21-16

Last week's record: 9-6, 7-8 ATS, 7-8 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 102-62-1, 87-77-1 ATS, 75-88-2 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1216-734-7, 946-944-67 ATS, 685-732-28 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)