NFL Game Previews: Thanksgiving Matchups

THURSDAY

Chicago (+10) at Detroit, o/u 48.5 – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

The Bears have lost five consecutive games, and they keep finding new ways to do it. The first loss in that streak was the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary game. Two weeks ago, Chicago had a potential game-winning field goal blocked by Green Bay on the final play of the game. Last week, Caleb Williams led a fourth-quarter comeback from a 14-point deficit to force overtime, only for Sam Darnold and the Vikings to methodically march down the field and boot a winning FG properly. Flip those results around, and the Bears are 7-4 and right in the thick of the wild-card discussion. New OC Thomas Brown has figured out that Williams doesn't need to stay in the pocket all the time, which makes sense when the kid is capable of stuff like this. (I've watched that throw more than a dozen times, and I still have no idea how the physics of it work without telekinesis being involved.) It also makes sense given how awful the team's offensive line has been — the poor rookie QB has been sacked 24 times during the losing streak. The Bears have kept things close in this rivalry during the Dan Campbell era, going 3-3 the last three seasons, but that's a massive ask on the road here given the trajectory of these two NFC North squads.

To wit, the Lions were the first team in the NFL to reach 10 wins, getting there about 15 minutes ahead of Kansas City last week. That victory over the Colts may have come at a price, however, as David Montgomery left the game early with a shoulder injury and Amon-Ra St. Brown emerged from it with a sore knee. Campbell seems fairly optimistic about the chances of both guys playing Thursday, but given the quick turnaround, you never know. Detroit has been an absolute wrecking crew after some early-season hiccups — in seven games since the team's bye, the Lions' average margin of victory has been more than 22 points. Road Jared Goff showed up in Indy, even though he had a roof over his head, but the Lions didn't need him with the defense holding a third straight opponent to less than 300 yards and a second straight opponent to just six points. The last touchdown a team managed to score against DC Aaron Glenn's unit came just before halftime in Week 10, when C.J. Stroud found John Metchie for a 15-yard score. That's 10 consecutive quarters of nothing but field goals (and only four of those), and while it's easy to write that off as a product of facing nothing but AFC South squads, it's still impressive.

Key Info

CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)
DET injuries: RB David Montgomery (questionable, shoulder), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (questionable, knee), WR Kalif Raymond (doubtful, foot), LB Alex Anzalone (IR, forearm)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CHI DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery, Jameson Williams

CHI DFS fades: Caleb Williams, Cole Kmet
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

D'Andre Swift puts together 80 yards and a touchdown. Caleb W throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked four times, but he does find DJ Moore for a TD. Montgomery is active, but Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 140 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, while Craig Reynolds punches in a short touchdown. Goff throws for 300 yards and two more TDs, hitting Jameson W (who tops 100 yards) and Sam LaPorta. Lions 38-17

N.Y. Giants (+3.5) at Dallas, o/u 37.0 – Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Well, that didn't last long. After bravely leading the Giants to a 30-7 thumping at the hands of the Bucs last week in his first start of the season, Tommy DeVito developed a sore forearm, either from attempting 31 passes or from getting hit nine times, including four sacks. That probably puts Drew Lock under center for this one behind an offensive line down to its third-string left tackle. Lock's not great, but he gives the passing game a higher ceiling than DeVito does, assuming he has time to wait for routes to develop. This would be a good spot in which to lean on Tyrone Tracy, who reached 100 scrimmage yards in four of six games prior to the team's Week 11 bye before managing 70 on only 13 touches last week. Malik Nabers can probably work with anybody, and Wan'Dale Robinson's 4.1 aDOT highlights how close to the line he usually operates, but Darius Slayton will be happy to see someone with a bigger arm in the huddle. Big Blue is in the thick of the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, and the defense is doing its part too — the Giants haven't generated multiple takeaways in a game since Week 3, and haven't kept an opponent to less than 300 total yards or 100 rushing yards since Week 4.

Of course, the Cowboys might take that as a dare. Yeah, they beat the Commanders last week ... in a game that saw the two teams combine for 19 points through the first three quarters before all hell broke loose in the fourth. Had a hobbled Austin Seibert not left some points on the table earlier, this ridiculous catch and run by Terry McLaurin against a defense that, presumably, was trying to prevent a big gain might have been the game-winner. Dallas ended up with 34 points on the day, but 14 of those came on kickoff returns. Cooper Rush also came out of that game banged up, but unlike DeVito is looks like he'll play, denying the world a possibly legendary Drew Lock-Trey Lance battle. Rico Dowdle is still looking for his first rushing TD of the season, but the last four games he's averaging 4.6 yards per carry while compiling a respectable 295 scrimmage yards, so Dallas at least seems to have its running-game woes sorted. The defense has given up at least 26 points to six consecutive opponents, though, and even getting Micah Parsons back hasn't helped much. Dallas has yet to have both Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland in the secondary at the same time in 2024, though, so maybe that's the answer. Or maybe the solution is just to play their favorite whipping boys. The Cowboys beat the Giants in Week 4, have swept the last three season series and are 14-1 in this, umm, "rivalry" since 2017.

Key Info

NYG injuries: QB Tommy DeVito (questionable, forearm)
DAL injuries: QB Cooper Rush (questionable, knee), WR CeeDee Lamb (questionable, back), WR Brandin Cooks (IR, knee), TE Jake Ferguson (questionable, concussion), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, groin), CB DaRon Bland (questionable, foot), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYG DFS targets: Tyrone Tracy
DAL DFS targets: CeeDee Lamb, KaVontae Turpin

NYG DFS fades: none
DAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Tracy pops for 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Lock throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Nabers. Dowdle manages 70 yards and a score. Rush throws for 230 yards and two TDs, both to Lamb, but he also loses a fumble on a sack that Dexter Lawrence returns to the house. Cowboys 24-21

Miami (+3.5) at Green Bay, o/u 47.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

They're not dead yet! The Dolphins have won three consecutive games to climb to 5-6, and currently they would be the bubble team in the AFC, 1.5 games out of the final wild-card spot. It's hard to overlook that they haven't beaten a really good team yet this season, though. The Rams are the closest thing to a playoff team among their conquests, and the rest of their wins have come against the Raiders, Jaguars and Patriots (twice). Tua Tagovailoa has been locked in since returning from his most recent concussion, completing an absurd 76.5 percent of his passes over the last five games with an 11:1 TD:INT and 7.5 YPA, but his biggest weapons during that stretch have been Jonnu Smith (27-299-3 on 35 targets) and De'Von Achane (four receiving TDs). Tyreek Hill hasn't reached 100 yards in a game since Week 1, while Jaylen Waddle ended his own drought with an 8-144-1 line last week against New England. The weather at Lambeau Field on Thursday night may not be conducive to either guy breaking out, though.

It's flown a bit under the radar, but the Packers have won six of their last seven games, though it should really be 5.5 wins given how the Bears game ended. The one loss was against the Lions, which likely ended any shot Green Bay had at an NFC North title, but they're still comfortably in line for a wild card. Josh Jacobs has been a beast, topping 100 scrimmage yards in four straight games with a 4.9 YPA and six rushing TDs, including three in last week's romp over the shorthanded Niners. Jordan Love, however, still hasn't found a rhythm since his early season groin injury. He's completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes four times in the last eight games, and the last four games he's posted a 62.4 percent completion rate and 3:3 TD:INT. He does have an 8.8 YPA over that stretch, though, so a late surge is still a definite possibility. The defense remains hit and miss, but mostly hit — DC Jeff Hafley's unit has produced multiple takeaways in eight of 11 games this season but zero in the other three, and the three goose eggs have come in the team's last five contests. As with Love, the pieces are there for the Packers' defense to have a big finish to the regular season.

Key Info

MIA injuries: WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, wrist), EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee), LB Anthony Walker (doubtful, hamstring)
GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (NFI, appendix), WR Romeo Doubs (questionable, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: Jonnu Smith
GB DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: Dolphins DST
GB DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the high 20s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Achane gets held to 60 scrimmage yards, but he does catch a TD pass. Tagovailoa throws for 220 yards and a second score to Smith. Jacobs rumbles for 100 yards and a touchdown. Love throws for 250 yards and three TDs, one each to Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Packers 28-17

FRIDAY

Las Vegas (+13) at Kansas City, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The black and silver QB carousel will get another spin this week. Gardner Minshew's out again, this time with a broken collarbone that will end his season, and Aidan O'Connell will come off the IR to replace him. Probably. Unless his thumb is still sore, in which case it'll be Desmond Ridder. It probably won't really matter who's running the offense, as the Raiders have lost seven consecutive games while averaging 18.3 points and 286.3 yards of offense a game. Last week's 369 yards against Denver was actually a season high for Vegas, and it came with the top two running backs on the shelf, which does make you wonder why they're the top two backs. Brock Bowers is on track for the best rookie season by a tight end in history, Jakobi Meyers is reliable and Maxx Crosby still has a shot at his third straight season with double-digit sacks, but I'm not sure there's another player on this roster that would be a starter on a true contender. That's incredibly poor resource management for a franchise that's had five head coaches and only two winning records in the last decade.

As the team is wont to do, Kansas City made things a lot tougher than it needed to be last week against the Panthers, but the defending champs still came away with their 10th win of the season. They're three games up in the AFC West with six to play, and reinforcements are due to arrive with Isiah Pacheco set to come off IR, as well as pass rusher Charles Omenihu, who had 7.0 sacks in 11 regular-season games last year plus one more in the AFC championship against the Ravens, a game he lasted only six snaps in before tearing his ACL. The latter return might actually make the bigger impact, even if Pacheco is the bigger name — Kansas City has only one takeaway and six sacks the last four games, and the defense could use some splash plays. The hero of late has been Noah Gray, who's somehow posted back-to-back two-TD performances. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have never been afraid to stick with what's working, and what seems to be working right now is getting defenses to forget that Travis Kelce has a pretty good backup. It won't last, but without a true go-to downfield option, Mahomes will have to keep making do with what he has.

Key Info

LV injuries: QB Gardner Minshew (out, collarbone), QB Aidan O'Connell (IR, thumb), RB Alexander Mattison (questionable, ankle), RB Zamir White (questionable, quadricep), WR Tre Tucker (questionable, hip)
KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, ankle), K Harrison Butker (IR, knee), K Spencer Shrader (questionable, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Samaje Perine, Travis Kelce/Noah Gray

LV DFS fades: Ameer Abdullah
KC DFS fades: Xavier Worthy

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Alexander Mattison plays but manages only 40 yards. O'Connell starts and throws for less than 200 yards, but he does hit Bowers for a touchdown. Pacheco gets activated, but Kareem Hunt still leads the KC backfield with 80 yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Perine and DeAndre Hopkins. Kansas City 27-10

Last week's record: 9-4, 7-6 ATS, 10-3 o/u
2024 record: 114-65, 90-87-2 ATS, 93-85-1 o/u