NFL Game Previews: Week 1 Matchups

N.Y. Jets (+6.5) at Detroit, 45.0 o/u – Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Jets have handed the keys to Sam Darnold, and the third overall pick in this year's draft will get to make his debut in prime time. The organization hasn't exactly surrounded him with tremendous talent, but the team doesn't have the worst collection of skill players in the league either, though the mediocre-at-best offensive line could make it tough for Darnold to gel with his receivers, especially deep threat Robby Anderson. Matthew Stafford likely will have to carry the load again for the Lions, though there are the makings of a useful running game with journeyman jackhammer LeGarrette Blount joining second-round pick Kerryon Johnson in the backfield.

The Skinny:
• NYJ injuries: WR Jermaine Kearse (questionable, abdomen)
• DET injuries: none
• NYJ DFS chalk: none
• DET DFS chalk: Stafford (NYJ tied for 29th in TD passes allowed in 2017 with 30)
• NYJ DFS tournament plays: Isaiah Crowell (DET 31st in rushing TDs allowed in 2017 with 18)
• DET DFS tournament plays: Theo Riddick (NYJ 26th in passing-game DVOA vs. RB in 2017)
• Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Crowell manages 50 yards and a score. Darnold struggles in his debut, throwing for less than 200 yards and getting picked off twice. Johnson leads the Lions backfield with 70 combined yards. Stafford throws for 280 yards and three TDs, hitting Marvin Jones, Golden Tate and Riddick. Lions, 30-10

L.A. Rams at Oakland (+4), 49.5 o/u – Monday, 10:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Raiders' final season in Oakland didn't exactly get off to an auspicious start when the front office traded the team's best player, Khalil Mack, for draft picks, so what enthusiasm there is in the fan base will have to be generated by Jon Gruden, who hasn't coached an NFL game in a decade. Eep. Derek Carr gets a new target in Jordy Nelson, but Nelson looked like a shell of his old self last year, and there's no guarantee he'll be able to replace Michael Crabtree's production. The Rams won't take anyone by surprise this year, but they probably don't need to with a full-throttle offense built around Todd Gurley and a defense anchored by Aaron Donald. If Brandin Cooks adapts to the scheme quickly and gives Jared Goff a more consistent deep threat, they could break through the 30 PPG mark they just missed in 2017.

The Skinny:
• LAR injuries: LB Mark Barron (questionable, ankle)
• OAK injuries: RB Marshawn Lynch (questionable, groin), RB DeAndre Washington (questionable, knee)
• LAR DFS chalk: Gurley (more than 70 percent of team carries plus targets in 2017)
• OAK DFS chalk: none
• LAR DFS tournament plays: Cooper Kupp (OAK 29th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2017)
• OAK DFS tournament plays: Jared Cook (LAR 19th in DVOA vs. TE in 2017 – the only position they allowed a positive mark against)
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, wind less than 10 mph, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gurley rips off 100 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 270 yards and TDs to Cooks and Robert Woods, while Cory Littleton returns a fumble for a score. Lynch starts but only gains 40 yards. Carr throws for 240 yards and a TD to Amari Cooper. Rams, 34-13

Buffalo (+7.5) at Baltimore, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: There are teams with lower projected 2018 win totals in Vegas, like the Cards and Browns, but the Bills seem perfectly set up to be selecting first in next year's draft. Their defense has a reputation for being a solid unit, but it finished 18th in points allowed last season and a scary 26th in yards allowed, just one measly first down ahead of the Lions, who no one would mistake for having a solid defense. Their QB situation is a mess – even if Josh Allen proves to be a franchise player, he has a very steep learning curve ahead of him – and LeSean McCoy, the only reliable player they have on the offensive side of the ball, is a 30-year-old with more than 2,500 touches worth of mileage who's coming off the worst YPC of his career, is overdue for injury trouble and potentially faces off-field troubles. As for the Ravens, they actually do have a stout defense, and their one key absence (Jimmy Smith) probably won't cost them against Buffalo's passing "attack." The front office brought in some new weapons for Joe Flacco, but really the offense is just in a holding pattern until Lamar Jackson is deemed ready to take the reins.

The Skinny:
• BUF injuries: none
• BAL injuries: CB Smith (out, suspension); TE Hayden Hurst (out, foot)
• BUF DFS chalk: McCoy (more than 70 percent of team carries plus targets in 2017)
• BAL DFS chalk: Alex Collins (BUF gave up league-worst 22 rushing TDs in 2017); Ravens DST (sixth in PPG allowed in 2017 at 18.9, weather also a factor)
• BUF DFS tournament plays: none
• BAL DFS tournament plays: none
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 16-18 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: McCoy isn't efficient but does pile up 80 combined yards. Nathan Peterman throws for less than 200 yards and only gets picked off once, but Eric Weddle returns it for a TD. Collins streaks for 110 yards and a score. Flacco throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Michael Crabtree. Ravens, 24-3

Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants (+3), 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The big question for the Jaguars is whether last year's near-miss on a Super Bowl appearance was the start of something good for the franchise, or a mere blip in a long history of futility. The pieces would seem to be in place for the former, as the defense still boasts elite talent at all three levels and Leonard Fournette gives the offense a strong, consistent focus. In fact, the Giants may be attempting to follow that model to some extent, adding Alec Ogletree to bolster a linebacking corps that's been weak for years now and drafting Saquon Barkley to be their bell cow. Of course, the Giants have something the Jags don't – a game-breaking player on the outside in Odell Beckham Jr.

The Skinny:
• JAC injuries: WR Marqise Lee (out, knee); CB Jalen Ramsey (questionable, ankle); TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (questionable, abdomen)
• NYG injuries: DE/OLB Olivier Vernon (questionable, ankle)
• JAC DFS chalk: Fournette (NYG 27th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2017 at 120.8)
• NYG DFS chalk: Barkley (JAC 26th in YPC allowed in 2017 at 4.3)
• JAC DFS tournament plays: Donte Moncrief (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2017); Seferian-Jenkins (if healthy, NYG gave up league-high 12 TDs to tight ends in 2017)
• NYG DFS tournament plays: Beckham (JAC 1st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2017, but Ramsey less than 100 percent)
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, 11-13 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Fournette rumbles for 90 combined yards and two touchdowns. Blake Bortles throws for 200 yards and a score to Dede Westbrook. Barkley has a slightly disappointing debut, gaining 80 combined yards. Eli Manning throws for 240 yards and TDs to Beckham and Evan Engram, but he also gets picked off twice. Jaguars, 21-20

Tampa Bay (+9.5) at New Orleans, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: It's a tale of two suspensions in the Big Easy to kick off the season. The Bucs will be without Jameis Winston for three games, leaving the offense in the hands of erratic veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Saints, meanwhile, will be without Mark Ingram for four games and have only Mike Gillislee, who will have had exactly one week to learn the playbook, as depth behind Alvin Kamara. Kamara was a beast as a rookie in a timeshare, so the prospect of him getting 20-plus touches in this one – a mark he failed to reach in any game in 2017 – is a very tantalizing proposition. The recent track record of this NFC South rivalry suggests Tampa Bay might be able to keep things close, as five of its seven losses to New Orleans since 2013 have been by a single score or less, but then again those other two losses were by a combined 45 points. Whatever chance the Bucs have will depend on their QB rediscovering his Fitzmagic rather than being a Fitzfizzle.

The Skinny:
• TB injuries: QB Winston (out, suspension)
• NO injuries: RB Ingram (out, suspension)
• TB DFS chalk: Mike Evans (23.0 percent target share in 2017, down from 30 percent in 2016)
• NO DFS chalk: Kamara (TB 25th in passing-game DVOA vs. RBs in 2017); Drew Brees (TB 32nd in passing yards allowed in 2017)
• TB DFS tournament plays: DeSean Jackson (NO 18th vs. WR2, 16th vs. deep throws in DVOA in 2017)
• NO DFS tournament plays: Tre'Quan Smith (TB 27th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2017)
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 NO, average score 26-21 NO, average margin of victory nine points
• Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Peyton Barber thuds out 50 yards, while Jacquizz Rodgers picks up 50 combined yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 220 yards and a score to Jackson but gets picked off twice. Kamara erupts for 170 combined yards and two touchdowns, one running and one receiving, while Gillislee chips in a goal-line plunge. Brees throws for 270 yards and a second score to Michael Thomas. Saints, 34-10

Houston (+6.5) at New England, 51.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Coming into 2018, the Texans are arguably the most volatile team in the league when it comes to their range of plausible outcomes, but that's what happens when your best players on both offense and defense have injury concerns. Deshaun Watson took the NFL by storm in his too-brief debut last year, and while it's hard to imagine he'll keep up that incredible pace of production over a full 16 games schedule even if his knee is 100 percent healthy, it's also hard to ignore his upside. On the other side of the ball, J.J. Watt has only played eight games the last two seasons, making it impossible to tell whether the 29-year-old is still even capable of being an elite player – much less the best defender in the league – but he seems to be completely healthy heading into 2018. As for the Pats, it's the same old story, Tom Brady will be breaking in new targets, but what else is new. As long as the Brady-Belichick connection is intact, New England can beat anyone, any time.

The Skinny:
• HOU injuries: WR Will Fuller (questionable, hamstring); LB Whitney Mercilus (questionable, hamstring)
• NE injuries: WR Julian Edelman (out, suspension); RB Sony Michel (questionable, knee)
• HOU DFS chalk: DeAndre Hopkins (34 percent target share in 2017)
• NE DFS chalk: Brady (HOU 29th in QB rating allowed in 2017 at 99.5); Rob Gronkowski (HOU 27th in DVOA vs. TE in 2017)
• HOU DFS tournament plays: none
• NE DFS tournament plays: Phillip Dorsett (HOU 30th vs. WR2, 31st vs. deep throws in DVOA in 2017)
• Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lamar Miller piles up 90 combined yards. Watson throws for 250 yards and runs for 60 more, hitting Hopkins (who tops 100 yards) and Tyler Ervin for scores. Rex Burkhead leads the Pats backfield with 60 combined yards. Brady throws for 280 yards and three TDs, finding Gronk, Dorsett and Chris Hogan. Patriots, 27-23

San Francisco (+6.5) at Minnesota, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Jimmy G era begins in earnest in San Francisco. Garoppolo looked like a natural fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense in the second half last year, but teams have now had a whole offseason to prepare for him and the Vikings' defense was a top-three unit against the pass in 2017. He also may not have much of a running game to take the pressure off him, as the Matt Breida/Alfred Morris tandem seems like a pale shadow of the Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman backfield Shanahan deployed in Atlanta. Minnesota's offense could look very different this year, with John DiFilippo (a product of the Andy Reid coaching tree via Doug Pederson) taking over as coordinator, Kirk Cousins offering more upside than Case Keenum at quarterback and Dalvin Cook hopefully on the field for 16 games. How quickly that unit comes together will determine how likely the Vikings are to repeat as NFC North champs.

The Skinny:
• SF injuries: RB Jerick McKinnon (out, knee); LB Reuben Foster (out, suspension); LB Malcolm Smith (questionable, hamstring)
• MIN injuries: CB Xavier Rhodes (questionable, hamstring)
• SF DFS chalk: none
• MIN DFS chalk: Cook (SF 22nd in rushing yards allowed in 2017, 24th in passing-game DVOA vs. RB, plus thin at LB with Foster out)
• SF DFS tournament plays: Morris (MIN 1st in passing-game DVOA vs. RB in 2017, potentially eliminating Breida's main strength and handing Morris bulk of backfield touches)
• MIN DFS tournament plays: Laquon Treadwell (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2017)
• Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Morris leads the Niners backfield with 70 yards and a TD, while Breida is held to 40 combined yards. Garoppolo throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Trent Taylor. Cook explodes for 140 combined yards and two TDs. Cousins has a strong Vikings debut, throwing for 250 yards and scores to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Vikings, 31-20

Tennessee at Miami (+1.5), 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Titans have yet to get a full season out of Marcus Mariota, and the injuries that have curtailed his development have also put the franchise in something of a holding pattern. The quarterback threw more picks than TDs in 2017, and while he shows enough flashes to provide plenty of hope that a breakout is just around the corner, at some point those flashes need to become a steady beam of light. At least he should have the support of a dangerous running game this season, as Dion Lewis joins Derrick Henry in a prototypical thunder-and-lightning attack. The Dolphins' QB issues are more serious – Ryan Tannehill's career has become a cautionary tale of what awaits Mariota if he doesn't turn things around – and Adam Gase's status seems to be hanging by a thread, as a decent-on-paper defense could wilt in the south Florida heat if the offense can't find some kind of spark. Jay Ajayi might have given it the best chance of finding one, but he got chased away by Gase and has the Super Bowl ring to prove it. Whoops.

The Skinny:
• TEN injuries: LB Derrick Morgan (questionable, knee); LB Rashaan Evans (questionable, various)
• MIA injuries: WR DeVante Parker (doubtful, finger)
• TEN DFS chalk: Delanie Walker (MIA 28th in DVOA vs. TE in 2017)
• MIA DFS chalk: none
• TEN DFS tournament plays: Mariota (MIA 28th in QB rating allowed in 2017)
• MIA DFS tournament plays: Kenyan Drake (TEN 32nd in passing-game DVOA vs. RB in 2017)
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 80s, wind less than 10 mph, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry thunders for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Lewis adds 70 combined yards and a TD of his own. Mariota throws for 230 yards and a score to Walker while rushing for 40 yards. Drake slashes for 90 combined yards, while Tannehill throws for 240 yards and a TD to Albert Wilson. Titans, 24-16

Cincinnati (+3) at Indianapolis, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Welcome back, Capt. Andrew Luck. You return to a Colts squad with a patchwork running game, an offensive line that'll be relying heavily on a couple rookies, and possibly the worst collection of defensive talent in the league. Good, uhh, luck with that. On the other sideline, not much has changed for the Bengals. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are still a strong tandem in the passing game, Joe Mixon is looking to take a step forward as the lead back but has Giovani Bernard for support, and Vontaze Burfict is suspended. Same as it ever was. It's a roster that's probably good enough to sneak into AFC North title contention if Le'Veon Bell's contract situation wrecks Pittsburgh's season, but otherwise they figure to be middle of the pack once again.

The Skinny:
• CIN injuries: LB Burfict (out, suspension)
• IND injuries: RB Marlon Mack (questionable, hamstring)
• CIN DFS chalk: Green (29 percent target share in 2017)
• IND DFS chalk: T.Y. Hilton (27 percent target share with Luck under center in 2016)
• CIN DFS tournament plays: Bernard (IND 31st in passing-game DVOA vs. RB in 2017)
• IND DFS tournament plays: Jack Doyle (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2017)
• Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Mixon scampers for 90 yards and a touchdown, while Bernard adds 70 combined yards and a receiving score. Dalton throws for 270 yards and a second TD to John Ross while Green hauls in more than 100 yards. Andrew Billings also recovers a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown. Mack doesn't play, leaving Jordan Wilkins to lead the Indy backfield with 50 yards. Luck throws for 300 yards and touchdowns to Hilton and Doyle, but it's not enough. Bengals, 31-20

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+4), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: It seems safe to say Le'Veon Bell really means it this time. He's held out of the preseason before, but it's now less than 48 hours to kickoff as I write this and he still hasn't signed his franchise tag tender and reported to the Steelers. Week 1 is probably a lost cause, and a multi-week absence is beginning to look like a distinct possibility. Second-year back James Conner will start in his place, but Bell being out would probably mean Ben Roethlisberger airs it out a lot more rather than Conner simply inheriting Bell's usual touches. A rainy Sunday in Cleveland could throw a wrench into those plans, though. As for the Browns, the front office's offseason moves would suggest it thinks the team's never-ending rebuild is finally ready to bear fruit, but the Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry additions seem more designed to give the offense a sturdy floor rather than an exciting ceiling. The defense has some talent, but it also allowed the second-most points in the NFL last year. Without some serious improvement on both sides of the ball, Cleveland might keep games closer but doesn't seem likely to win many more of them.

The Skinny:
• PIT injuries: RB Bell (questionable, contract dispute); TE Vance McDonald (out, foot)
• CLE injuries: WR Josh Gordon (questionable, hamstring)
• PIT DFS chalk: Antonio Brown (28 percent target share in 2017 with Bell in the lineup, CLE 29th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2017)
• CLE DFS chalk: none
• PIT DFS tournament plays: Jesse James (CLE 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2017)
• CLE DFS tournament plays: Duke Johnson (PIT 23rd in passing-game DVOA vs. RB in 2017)
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 PIT, average score 25-17 PIT, average margin of victory 12 points, though the last three games (all PIT wins) were decided by four points or less
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, 22-24 mph wind, 75-85 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner starts and gains a respectable 60 yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Brown. Carlos Hyde leads the Browns backfield with 70 combined yards. Taylor throws for less than 200 yards but runs for 40, hitting Antonio Callaway for Cleveland's only points. Steelers, 20-7

Kansas City (+3.5) at L.A. Chargers, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Chiefs have handed their offense over to last year's first-round pick, Patrick Mahomes, but their bigger concern is a defense that has an awful lot of questions. Kendall Fuller was a nice addition, and if Reggie Ragland pans out and slides into Derrick Johnson's old role in the middle it would definitely help stabilize the unit, but the team is still depending heavily on less-than-dependable veterans like Eric Berry. The Bolts, now in their second season in Los Angeles, will once again look to 36-year-old Philip Rivers to keep things chugging along on offense, while Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are the twin engines of a strong defense. That might not be enough to end the Chargers' eight-game losing streak against their AFC West rivals, though.

The Skinny:
• KC injuries: S Berry (doubtful, heel)
• LAC injuries: TE Hunter Henry (out, knee); DE Bosa (questionable, foot)
• KC DFS chalk: Kareem Hunt (more than 75 percent of team carries plus targets in 2017)
• LAC DFS chalk: Keenan Allen (28 percent target share in 2017, KC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2017)
• KC DFS tournament plays: Chiefs defense (1:6 TD:INT, four sacks in two games vs. Rivers in 2017)
• LAC DFS tournament plays: none
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 KC, with the Chiefs winning eight straight. Average score 27-18 KC, average margin of victory 11 points.
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, wind less the 10 mph, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hunt gallops for 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 220 yards and a score to Travis Kelce. Melvin Gordon picks up 70 yards and a TD, while Rivers throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, both to Allen. Chargers, 24-20

Seattle (+3) at Denver, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: Earl Thomas is back in the fold for Seattle, at least for now – scuttlebutt is that the Seahawks, who desperately want to get something for him before he walks in free agency, and the Cowboys, who desperately need safety help, are playing chicken over what sort of draft pick Dallas should be sending in exchange. Even if Thomas is in the Week 1 lineup, though, he's just the last remnant of a once-fearsome secondary that looks more like the Legion of Bust these days. That could be bad news facing a Broncos offense that figures to be much improved with Royce Freeman in the backfield, Case Keenum under center and Bill Musgrave calling the shots in his first full season as coordinator in Denver. Musgrave has gotten the best out of QBs as diverse as Matt Ryan, Derek Carr and Steve Beuerlein, so Keenum isn't necessarily going to regress after his breakout 2017 with the Vikings.

The Skinny:
• SEA injuries: LB K.J. Wright (out, knee)
• DEN injuries: none
• SEA DFS chalk: Russell Wilson (DEN 28th in TD passes allowed in 2017 with 29)
• DEN DFS chalk: Demaryius Thomas (25 percent target share in 2017)
• SEA DFS tournament plays: Nick Vannett (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2017)
• DEN DFS tournament plays: Emmanuel Sanders (SEA 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2017)
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, wind less than 10 mph, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chris Carson starts, but Rashaad Penny leads the Seattle backfield with 50 combined yards. Wilson throws for 270 yards and TDs to Brandon Marshall and Vannett. Freeman piles up 90 combined yards. Keenum throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Thomas and Sanders. Broncos, 23-17

Dallas (+3) at Carolina, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: While most eyes are on the Cowboys offense and all the questions it contains – can Dak Prescott rebound? Who's he going to throw to? Is the offensive line going to function without center Travis Frederick? How big a workload can Ezekiel Elliott handle, anyway? – the defense, and especially the pass rush, may be poised to step into the spotlight. DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory and Taco Charlton could each make an impact in Week 1, especially against a Panthers O-line hit hard by injuries this preseason. Cam Newton can be hard to bring down, but if he doesn't have time to let plays develop his scrambling will only get Carolina's offense so far.

The Skinny:
• DAL injuries: DT David Irving (out, suspension)
• CAR injuries: LB Thomas Davis (out, suspension); WR Curtis Samuel (out, chest)
• DAL DFS chalk: Elliott (more than 85 percent of team carries plus targets in 2017)
• CAR DFS chalk: Greg Olsen (DAL 25th in DVOA vs. TE in 2017)
• DAL DFS tournament plays: Cowboys defense (CAR missing starting LT and LG from 2017 offensive line)
• CAR DFS tournament plays: none
• Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, wind less than 10 mph, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elliott pounds out 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 210 yards and a score to Cole Beasley, while Chidobe Awuzie returns a pick for a score. Christian McCaffrey finds 80 combined yards and a receiving TD, while C.J. Anderson runs for another 40. Newton throws for 220 yards and rushes for 50 more, hitting Olsen for a second touchdown, but he also gets sacked five times. Cowboys, 27-17

Washington (+1) at Arizona, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: Washington starts 2018 with a new quarterback in Alex Smith and a new starting running back, though not the one it expected – with rookie Derrius Guice lost for the year, the team will give Adrian Peterson another chance to find his old form. AP will do so against the team that gave him a brief lease on life last year after he flopped in New Orleans, but with David Johnson healthy again, the Cards had no need of him. Arizona also has a new QB, with Sam Bradford coming over in the offseason during the Great Minnesota Quarterback Purge, and his accuracy should mesh well with Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald on short routes. The less said about the rest of the offense, the better.

The Skinny:
• WAS injuries: none
• ARI injuries: DE Markus Golden (out, knee)
• WAS DFS chalk: none
• ARI DFS chalk: Johnson (WAS 32nd in rushing yards allowed in 2017)
• WAS DFS tournament plays: Smith (eight rushing TDs in last three years, ARI allowed a league-worst five rushing TDs to QBs in 2017)
• ARI DFS tournament plays: none
• Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Peterson runs for 70 yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jamison Crowder while running in a score of his own. Johnson tears off 150 combined yards and two TDs. Bradford throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Chad Williams. Cardinals, 27-24

Chicago (+7.5) at Green Bay, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: Trading for Khalil Mack suggests the Bears think they're ready to be contenders again, but a lot will be riding on the shoulders on second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky as well as new coach Matt Nagy, a product of Andy Reid's coaching tree. Trubisky has an interesting array of weapons at his disposal, including offseason additions Allen Robinson and Trey Burton, but it's not yet clear if the offense will be more or less than the sum of its parts. The Packers are just hoping Aaron Rodgers can stay on the field for 16 games. If he can, he'll cover for a lot of the ills elsewhere on the roster. Davante Adams is his clear top target with Jordy Nelson gone, and his career numbers against the Bears are staggering – 15 wins in 19 starts, with a 42:9 TD:INT and 107.2 QB rating.

The Skinny:
• CHI injuries: none
• GB injuries: RB Aaron Jones (out, suspension)
• CHI DFS chalk: none
• GB DFS chalk: Rodgers (see above)
• CHI DFS tournament plays: Allen Robinson (GB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2017); Tarik Cohen (GB 29th in passing-game DVOA vs. RB in 2017)
• GB DFS tournament plays: Geronimo Allison (CHI 26th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2017)
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 GB, average score 30-19 GB, average margin of victory 13 points. Both CHI wins have come in Lambeau Field, however.
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, wind less than 10 mph, less than five percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jordan Howard rumbles for 90 yards and a touchdown, while Cohen chips in 60 combined yards. Trubisky holds his own, throwing for 260 yards and TDs to Robinson and Burton. Jamaal Williams bangs out 70 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers fires up 290 yards and three scores, with Adams hauling in more than 100 yards and two of the TDs and Allison grabbing the third. Packers, 31-24

Atlanta (+1) at Philadelphia, 44.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: A playoff rematch from last year, this line has seen serious movement since the Eagles confirmed Carson Wentz won't be under center – it opened at Falcons plus-4, with an over/under of 47.0 points, making it clear what the public thinks of Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. Atlanta's offense is now in its second season with Steve Sarkisian calling the shots, but my opinion of him hasn't really changed since last year. He had almost no NFL track record when he took the job, and the team's scoring dropped more than 10 points per game (33.8 in 2016 to 22.1 last year) without Kyle Shanahan in charge. I've heard a lot of talk of the Falcons' attack "rebounding" now that the coordinator's more comfortable with the weapons at his disposal, but that assumes there's a better mean for Sarkisian to regress to, and there's really no evidence to back up that assumption.

The Skinny:

• ATL injuries: none
• PHI injuries: QB Wentz (out), WR Alshon Jeffery (out)
• ATL DFS chalk: WR Julio Jones
• PHI DFS chalk: TE Zach Ertz
• ATL DFS tournament plays: RB Tevin Coleman
• PHI DFS tournament plays: RB Darren Sproles, WR Mike Wallace
• Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 80s, wind less than 10 mph, chance of rain less than 10 percent

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman picks up 50 combined yards, while Coleman adds 60 combined yards and a score. Matt Ryan throws for 230 yards and a TD to Julio. Jay Ajayi scampers for 60 yards, while Corey Clement gains 40 combined yards and a touchdown and Sproles grabs a TD pass as well, creating an instant fantasy mess in the Philly backfield. Foles throws for 220 yards and a second score to Ertz. Eagles, 24-17

2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS