This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
NFL Week 15 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers -6.5 O/U 46.5 (49ers -2.5 O/U 48.5)
- Dallas Cowboys -6.5 at Carolina Panthers O/U 44.0 (Panthers -2.5 O/U 43.0)
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 at Cleveland Browns O/U 46.5 (Chiefs -4.0 O/U 45.0)
- Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans -2.5 O/U 49.5 (Texans -3.0 O/U 47.5)
- New York Jets -1.0 at Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 46.0 (Jets -3.5 O/U 40.5)
- Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints -2.5 O/U 42.0 (Commanders -7.0 O/U 43.0)
- Baltimore Ravens -6.5 at New York Giants O/U 44.0 (Ravens -15.0 O/U 43.0)
- Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 at Tennessee Titans O/U 46.0 (Bengals -5.0 O/U 48.0)
- New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals -3.0 O/U 44.0 (Cardinals -5.0 O/U 46.0)
- Indianapolis Colts -2.5 at Denver Broncos O/U 44.5 (Broncos -4.0 O/U 44.5)
- Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions -2.0 O/U 50.5 (Lions -1.5 O/U 55.0)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 O/U 42.5 (Chargers -3.0 O/U 46.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles -3.0 O/U 45.0 (Eagles -5.0 O/U 42.5)
- Green Bay Packers -1.0 at Seattle Seahawks O/U 47.0 (Packers -2.5 O/U 46.5)
- Chicago Bears -1.0 at Minnesota Vikings O/U 46.0 (Vikings -6.5 O/U 43.5)
- Atlanta Falcons -1.0 at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 45.5 (Falcons -4.0 O/U 44.5)
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NFL Week 15 Key Injury News
QB - Justin Herbert (LAC), Derek Carr (NO), Aidan O'Connell (LV)
RB - Bucky Irving (TB), Kenneth Walker (SEA), Isaac Guerendo (KC), Jonathon Brooks (CAR)
WR - George Pickens (PIT), Romeo Doubs (GB), Cedric Tillman (CLE), Demarcus Robinson (LAR),
TE - Tyler Higbee (LAR), Will Dissly (LAC)
NFL Week 15 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Ravens/Giants -14.5; the lowest spread is Lions/Bills -1.5
- The highest total game is Lions/Bills 55.0 ; the lowest total is Jets/Jaguars 40.5
- The Panthers are favorites for the first time since December 2022
- There are 7 road favorites in Week 15
- The five highest team totals are Ravens, Lions, Bengals, Cardinals, Bills
- The four lowest team totals are Giants, Saints, Jaguars, Bears, Raiders
NFL Week 15 Line Movement
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
The line originally opened with Dallas as 6.5 point road favorites. On December 3rd they were still favored by 1.5. But the Panthers competitive play against the Chiefs and Eagles has moved the line all the way to Carolina -1.0 and then -2.5 for a total of a 9 point swing.
The Panthers last closed as favorites on December 18, 2022. The other interesting note is that they are 0-9 in their last 9 games when favored. Even still, the Panthers are still getting money and this number could hit 3.
The total has not moved much from the opening line of 44.0 and is now at 43.0. Also keep in mind, the Cowboys played on Monday Night and have to travel, where as the Panthers will have an extra day of rest and play at home.
Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints
As we get into the last part of the season, the line movement trends to even more extreme especially if there is a key injury. Derek Carr is probably out with a fractured non-throwing hand, and that accounts for the recent line move.
The Saints opened as -2.5 point home favorites before the season, and then the game reopened on 12/3 with the Commanders as 3.0 point road favorites for a 5.5 point move. The Carr injury then pushed Washington to -6.5, -7.0, and even -7.5 now for a full 10 point move.
Home underdogs of 7 points or higher at 6-3-1 against the spread this season.
The total opened 42.0 and got all the way up to 49.0 a week ago, but the Carr injury news put the total back down to 44.5, 43.5, and now 43.0. This number remains in flux based on who plays quarterback for the Saints.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
Over the last 20 season, we have only seen a home underdog of 14.0 points or higher in 30 games; which is on average about a little over 1 game per season. The home dog is 17-12-1 in those last 30 games against the spread, but only 4-26 straight up.
We get that now in the Ravens/Giants game, as the Ravens have peaked as high as -15.0 road favorites after opening -6.5 in Week 1. The reopen on December 3rd had it Ravens -11.5 and it has steadily climbed since. The Ravens sit as -14.5 point road favorites as of Tuesday.
The Giants have lost 8 in a row straight up overall and 7 in a row straight up at home.
The total opened 44.0 and has dipped to 43.0 which further strengthens the position on the Ravens.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
It is hard to imagine the Colts opened -2.5 point road favorites, and now the Broncos are the -4.0 point home favorites. There are no key injuries in the game, so this line move of 6.5 points is all on the Broncos power rating improvement as they look to make a playoff push.
The Broncos have become point spread covering monsters at home going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
The total has remained close to the opening line of 44.5 and is sitting at 44.0
