This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
NFL Week 18 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens -5.0 O/U 46.5 (Ravens -17.5 O/U 41.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals -1.0 at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 45.5 (Bengals -1.5 O/U 48.5)
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons -6.5 O/U 45.5 (Falcons -8.5 O/U 47.5)
- Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys -5.5 O/U 46.5 (Commanders -4.5 O/U 44.0)
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers -3.0 O/U 47.0 (Packers -9.0 O/U 40.5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -1.5 O/U 46.5 (Colts -4.5 O/U 45.5)
- Buffalo Bills -3.5 at New England Patriots O/U 44.5 (Bills -3.0 O/U 38.0)
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 O/U 44.5 (Eagles -3.0 O/U 38.5)
- New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 O/U 43.0 (Bucs -13.5 O/U 43.5)
- Houston Texans -3.0 at Tennessee Titans O/U 45.0 (Texans -1.0 O/U 38.5)
- San Francisco 49ers -5.5 at Arizona Cardinals O/U 43.0 (Cardinals -3.0 O/U 44.0)
- Kansas City Chiefs -4.0 at Denver Broncos O/U 46.5 (Broncos -10.0 O/U 38.5)
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams -5.5 O/U 47.0 (Seahawks -3.0 O/U 39.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers -1.0 at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 44.5 (Chargers -5.5 O/U 41.5)
- Miami Dolphins at New York Jets -1.5 O/U 47.0 (Dolphins -1.5 O/U 39.5)
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions -5.0 O/U 47.5 (Lions -2.5 O/U 57.0)
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NFL Week 18 Key Injury News
QB - Jalen Hurts (PHI), Kenny Pickett (PHI), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA), Anthony Richardson (IND)
RB - Chase Brown (CIN), Aaron Jones (MIN), James Conner (ARI), Chuba Hubbard (CAR), Jerome Ford (CLE), Isiah Pacheco (KC), Kendre Miller (NO), Kenneth Walker (SEA), Tony Pollard (DAL)
WR - CeeDee Lamb (DAL), Christian Watson (GB), Joshua Palmer (LAC), Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
NFL Week 18 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Browns/Ravens -18.0; the lowest spread is Titans/Texans and Dolphins/Jets -1.0
- The highest total game is Lions/Vikings 58.0; the lowest total is Bills/Patriots and Texans/Titans 38.0
- There are 5 road favorites in Week 18
- There are 7 games with totals that have gone down by at least 6 points or more
- The highest teams totals are Ravens, Falcons, Bucs, Vikings, Lions
- The lowest teams totals are Browns, Bears, Giants, Saints, Patriots, Chiefs
- You will see a "tax" on lines in games where one team either benches most of its key starters or does not need the game.
NFL Week 18 Line Movement
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Line movements in Week 18 are more about who is motivated to win and playing their starters as opposed to the typical performance of the teams.
The Ravens opened -5.0 point home favorites and the line has skyrocketed all the way up to -17.5 with a peak of -18.0. The majority of the line move is the Ravens are still playing for the AFC North and the #3 seed. The Browns have also punted the season by starting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his 1 TD, 10 INT career line.
If the Ravens win, they lock up the AFC North and the #3 seed. They can still win the division with a Steelers loss. Playing this one Ravens first half is the way to go as they could rest everyone in the second half with a big lead.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
This game is the epitome of one team resting all of its key players against a team that makes the playoffs with a win.
The Chiefs opened -4.0 point road favorites, but they have clinched the #1 seed in the AFC and home field throughout the playoffs. The line has moved a full 14 points in favor of the Broncos at -10.0. It reopened at -7.5 and has steadily moved in favor of Denver.
The total has also moved significantly with the Chiefs presumably benching most of their offensive starters. It opened 46.5 and dropped to 38.5.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys opened as -5.5 point home favorites, but their disappointing season along with the suprising Commanders moved this line significantly even before considering the playoff implications. The line reopened Commanders -5.5 point road favorites for a full 11 point move. But this line has bounced around, going from -5.0, -3.0, -3.5, -4.0, and now -4.5.
While the Commanders have locked up a playoff spot in the NFC, there is a difference between the 6 and 7 seed. They want to avoid playing the Eagles and end up playing either the Bucs, Falcons, or Rams. Head coach Dan Quinn publicly said they will "fight like hell" to get the 6 seed.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs opened -2.5 point home favorites in Week 1, but the combination of all the Saints injuries and the Bucs playoff motivation has moved it a full 11 points to Bucs -13.5. The line actually peaked at -14.5 before seeing buyback on the Saints just because of the high number.
The Bucs have an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs while the Saints season has been injury plagued with every major offensive skill player missing significant time or out for the season.
Tampa Bay needs a win to lock up the NFC South and at least the 4 seed, with a potential of getting the 3 seed. This would be another game where you might want to look at the Bucs in the first half only as they could rest players in the second half.
