NFL Odds: NFL Line Movement for Week 1

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Published on September 3, 2024

NFL Line Movement and Odds Changes This Week

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

On the totals side, key numbers are - 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.

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NFL Week 1 Odds

BYES: NONE

NFL Week 1 Schedule

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 O/U 46.0-46.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles -2.5/-3.0 O/U 48.5/49.0
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons -3.0 O/U 42.0/42.5
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills -5.5/-6.0 O/U 48.0/48.5
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears -4.0/-4.5 O/U 45.5
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals -8.5/-9.0 O/U 40.5
Houston Texans -2.5 at Indianapolis Colts O/U 48.5/49.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins -3.0/-3.5 O/U 49.5/50.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints -4.0/-4.5 O/U 41.5
Minnesota Vikings -1.0/-1.5 at New York Giants O/U 41.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 O/U 40.5/41.0
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks -5.5 O/U 41.5/42.0
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns -2.5 O/U 42.0/42.5
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0/-3.5 O/U 43.5/44.5
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions -3.5 O/U 51.0/51.5
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers -3.5 O/U 43.5

RotoWire has the latest NFL odds from the best sports betting apps to help you find the best prices for your NFL bets this season.

NFL Week 1 Injury News

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN - Chase has been holding out and is worth about -1.5 to -2 points to the line according to experts.
QB
- Justin Herbert, LAC has been dealing with plantar fasciitis. He is expected to play, but it is something to keep an eye on this week to see if/when he practices.
RB
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET - Gibbs has been dealing with a hamstring issue and he does not appear to be at risk of missing Week One, but I would expect more of a timeshare with David Montgomery.
  - Christian McCaffrey, SF - CMC is listed as questionable with a calf injury.
- Jaylen Warren, PIT - Warren is listed as questionable with a hamstring which could mean even more of a workload for Najee Harris in the Arthur Smith run heavy offense.
WR
- DeAndre Hopkins, TEN - Hopkins was diagnosed with a strained knee in early August and is expected to be ready for Week One.
- Tyler Lockett, SEA - Lockett has been out with a leg injury and he is a true question mark for Week One against the Broncos.
- Puka Nacua, LAR - Nacua has been dealing with a bursa sac issue in his knee, but appears to be on track for Week One.

NFL Week 1 Odds Observations

Much like Week 1 2023, we have a lot of close competitive lines within the -2.5 to -4.0 point range with only 1 game current at -7 or higher (Bengals vs. Patriots)
The totals trend we saw in the Week 1 results last year are carrying over along with what we saw in the preseason. I do think we have a lot of very low lines that could end up being OVER.
There have been a TON of coaching changes especially on the coordinator front, keep tabs on these and which ones mean the most in terms of philosophy changes.

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NFL Week 1 Line Movement

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

This is the game with the biggest line movement on both the side and the total in Week One. Most of the early line movement was because of the Cowboys as there were contract situations on both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb which have been addressed.

The line opened Browns -1.0 and had bounced around between -0.5 and -2.0, but then ended up going to the Cowboys -0.5 before going back to the Browns -1.0. Even since mid-July, the money has been on the Browns with the line moving to -2.0 and now -2.5. If this line hits Browns -3.0, you can expect the Cowboys to get money.

While the line seems to have settled in on the Browns, the total has been plummeting since opening at 45.0 and has incrementally dropped 0.5-1.0 points. It is now 41.5.
The Cowboys have had what most have perceived as a terrible off-season as they have not addressed running back, wide receiver outside of Lamb, and the offensive line. The Browns have their own issues with concerns around quarterback Deshaun Watson, who did not look good in the preseason and both teams look to be offensively challenged.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

The NFL seems to have done a great job scheduling a lot of teams that are close to each other in Week One and this is another game in which both teams are evenly matched but also expected to be towards the bottom on the league in offense.

Jim Harbaugh takes over the Chargers head coaching position with expectations they will be the heaviest run team in the league. They have very few playmakers on offense outside of quarterback Justin Herbert. On the other side, the Raiders are starting Gardner Minshew at quarterback and do not have much outside wide receiver Davante Adams who might not be motivated to play for them.

The game line opened Chargers -2.5 and went to -4.0 two weeks ago, but then was bet down to -3.0. The total has taken a huge dip after opening 44.0, going to 42.5, 42, 41.0, and 40.5. While there are no totals under 40 points in Week One, we could see some move towards that with this being one of them.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

There is a lot to "unpack" here with several things on both sides that are having an impact on the line.

The Bengals opened -8.0 and moved to -9.5 before going back to -8.5. The Ja'Marr Chase contract holdout situation has a lot to do with the line moving down now. But the line moved up prior due to Jacoby Brissett being named the Patriots starting quarterback.

One thing that has not gone up and down is the total which opened 43.0 and has steadily moved down and is now at 40.5. The Patriots are expected to be the worst team in the NFL along with the worst offense has they had six games last year where they scored 7 points or less.

If this game was played in Week Four and Chase was definitely playing, we might be looking at -12 to -14 as I do not think the Patriots will score much. Their defense kept them in games last year, but without Bill Belichick calling plays and trading Matthew Judon, it's just not the same.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers

This is probably the most volatile game of the week with the 49ers opening at -5.5 and money has come in on the Jets repeatedly since the summer with the line down to -3.5. Most of the line movement on the Jets is because the 49ers were without Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams due to contract disputes. Aiyuk signed an extension and Williams ended his holdout Tuesday morning according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

There are a couple other smaller issues with the 49ers that are impacting the line move. Christian McCaffrey has been dealing with a calf strain and starting offensive lineman Aaron Banks has a broken finger. Both are expected to play Monday night, but it will affect the 49ers offense.

The total has also moved down 2 points from 45.5 to 43.5 which puts the implied game score around 23-20.