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NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Divisional Round Playoff Weekend
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
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NFL Divisional Round Weekend Odds
Divisional Round Weekend Schedule
Saturday, Jan. 20
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens -9.5 O/U 45.5 OPENED RAVENS -9.5 O/U 46.0
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers -10 O/U 49.5 OPENED 49ERS -9.5 O/U 50.5
Sunday, Jan. 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions -6 O/U 48.5 OPENED LIONS -6.5 O/U 48.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills -2.5 O/U 46.5 OPENED BILLS -3.0 O/U 46.0
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NFL Divisional Round Playoff Weekend Line Movement: Houston Texans 
at Baltimore Ravens 
The line opened at Ravens -9.5 and has stayed put so far early on, but there are some -8.5 lines out there (FanDuel) and -9s, which could be an indication of where the consensus line is headed. The total is 45 or 45.5 at most sportsbooks and has remained in that range since opening. There is one lesser-known sportsbook that has the total at 43, which is most likely a reaction to the early weather report.
The Ravens are the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a week of rest and home field with no major injuries. The Texans had an impressive win at home against the Browns, 45-14. The Ravens have had issues with being upset in the playoffs as a high seed, but the Texans are now on the road with a rookie head coach and quarterback.
It is hard to see the Ravens losing outright in this spot, but I still think the Texans will be able to put up some points but the weather report will dictate the total play.
Previous Matchup
Ravens 25-9 on Sept. 10, Ravens -9.5 O/U 43.5
Trends
Ravens are 6-3 last nine at home
Ravens won six in a row before losing to the Steelers in Week 18 and were 10-1 last 11
Four out of the last five Ravens home games have gone OVER
Texans are 4-4 SU in their last eight road games
Key Injuries
Texans - WR Noah Brown (IR)
DE Jerry Hughes, T Laremy Tunsil are listed as QUESTIONABLE
Ravens - CB Damarion Williams (IR)
TE Mark Andrews is eligible to return from IR
Weather - 27 degrees with 18 mph winds
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NFL Divisional Round Playoff Weekend Line Movement: Green Bay Packers 
at San Francisco 49ers 
Both games involving the top seeds have a similar setup and line with dominant teams facing young upstart teams. The key is figuring out if these dogs can hang to cover the spread or will just be overmatched.
The 49ers opened -9.5 and quickly moved to -10. The total opened 50.5 and has moved down slightly to 50.0. Again this could be an early weather indication. This is the highest total in a 49ers home game since Nov. 15, 2021. The 49ers have allowed more than 20 points at home just twice in the last 13 games (excluding Week 18).
Trends
The total has gone OVER in the last five Packers road games and seven out of nine
49ers are 19-4 straight up in their last 23 at home; but just 2-3 in their last five
49ers are 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games
Jordan Love has a 22:1 TD:INT ratio in his last nine games
Key Injuries
Packers - RB AJ Dillon, T Caleb Jones, and CB Jaire Alexander are listed as QUESTIONABLE
49ers - DL Arik Armstead, WR Jauan Jennings, S Ji'ayir Brown, S Tashaun Gipson, CB Ambry Thomas are listed as QUESTIONABLE
Weather - 55 degrees, 90 percent chance of rain, 5 to 10 mph winds
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NFL Divisional Round Playoff Weekend Line Movement: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
at Detroit Lions 
The Lions opened a consensus -6.0 home favorites with some -6.5s sprinkled around and the total of 48.5. The Lions were extremely fortunate against the Rams, winning 24-23 despite being outgained 425-334. The Rams were 0 for 3 in the red zone scoring touchdowns and settled for field goals.
The Bucs were impressive against an Eagles team that had one of the worst collapses in the second half of a season ever. The general consensus among handicappers and content providers is that this line is inflated by at least 2 points in favor of the Lions. There is strong value on the Bucs at anything +3.5 or higher.
The game plan the Bucs employed against the Eagles can translate to the Lions game and the Lions won their first playoff game in 31 years, so hangover could be in play. I really like the Bucs in the first half on the moneyline in a high-scoring game.
Previous Matchup
Lions 20-6, 10.15.23; Lions -3.0 O/U 43.5
Trends
The Lions are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as home favorites
The Lions are 7-3 to the OVER in their last 10 and 15-5 in their last 20 as home favorites
The Bucs are 5-2 to the OVER in their last seven as road dogs between 1-6 points
The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six as road dogs between 1-6 points
Key Injuries
Bucs - WE Rakim Jarrett (QUESTIONABLE)
Lions - WR Kalif Raymond (QUESTIONABLE)
Weather - Indoors
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NFL Divisional Round Playoff Weekend Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs 
at Buffalo Bills 
A half-point line move might not seem like a big deal, but it is in the playoffs and when it means -3 becomes -2.5 because 3 is the most "key" number in the NFL. More games land on a margin of 3 than any other number.
The Bills opened as -3.0 home favorites and the number has moved to -2.5 (albeit higher juice -122) with an opening total of 46.0 that is now 46.5. The difference between this week's game and the Dec. 10 contest is this one is in Buffalo, but the Bills come in with a significant amount of injuries on the defensive side.
The Chiefs are in an unfamiliar position in that they are on the road and underdogs in the playoffs. But they catch the Bills banged up and the home-field advantage for cold weather is negated.
Previous Matchup
Bills 20-17 12.10.23; Bills +2.0, O/U 49.0
Trends
Patrick Mahomes has NEVER played on the ROAD in the playoffs
The Chiefs are just 6-4 SU last 10 and 3-7 to the UNDER
The Bills have won six straight games
Key Injuries
Chiefs - OL Wanya Morris, WR Justyn Ross, WR Kadarius Toney (QUESTIONABLE)
Bills - LB Terrel Bernard, CB Rasul Douglas, S Taylor Rapp, LB Tyrel Dodson are listed as QUESTIONABLE
Weather 20 degrees, 5-10 mph winds
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