This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.
We're back at it for our Week 8 Underdog Pick'em selections. By now, we've settled into a nice rhythm so we'll just take a minute to highlight the primary tools I used to reach my picks and reference throughout the article:
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Chase Brown vs. Philadelphia – higher than 12 rushing attempts
It's an oversimplification to say that Brown has taken over the Cincinnati backfield, because the team doesn't seem to trust him as a pass blocker. However, Zack Moss saw only six carries in Week 7, one week after being benched for losing a fumble in the third quarter against the Giants. Meanwhile, Brown earned 15 carries.
The snap count between the duo is likely to remain relatively even, with Brown being the preferred rusher and Moss the receiving back. The Eagles aren't a good matchup for opposing backs, but this number is set low enough that we should still expect Brown to top it.
Cade Otton vs. Atlanta – higher than 44.5 receiving yards
There is some risk in this pick simply because the priority among Tampa Bay pass catchers is so unclear. In the chaos of losing his top two wide receivers in Week 7, we should expect Baker Mayfield to look to the remaining known quantity, which is Otton. After a slow start to the season, Otton was already starting to take on a significant role in the offense by earning at least six targets in four of his last five games. He's started to add some explosiveness to his profile as well, with three catches of at least 20 yards across the last three games. Opportunity and skill align for him to have a solid receiving day against the Falcons.
Joe Mixon vs. Indianapolis – higher than 78.5 rushing yards
This is another case where two strong factors that favor the "higher" converge. In the two games that Mixon has logged a full snap rate this season, he's attempted 30 and 25 rushes and racked up 159 and 115 yards. He also topped 100 yards on the ground in his return from an ankle injury in Week 6. In other words, the Texans lean heavily on Mixon, and why saw why with the uninspiring replacements who took over for him upon his injury. That alone is probably enough to justify the selection, except for in weeks in matchups against the most elite run defenses.
That certainly isn't the case in Week 8, when he sees the Colts. Indianapolis is the biggest run funnel in the league (opponents have a -11.5 pass rate over expectation). The one wrinkle to this is the potential return of DeForest Buckner (ankle), but he didn't practice Friday after logging a full session Thursday. If not a full-on setback, that at a minimum indicates he won't be ready to handle a full workload on Sunday.
D'Andre Swift vs. Washington – higher than 56.5 rushing yards
The story of Swift's season has closely followed that of the entire Bears offense. He was dreadful, and even apparently in danger of losing his role as lead back, to begin the season, but he has since turned things around to top 70 rushing yards in each of the last three games while clearly maintaining volume. Week 8 should be a good opportunity for him to continue that trend as the Commanders allow 5.17 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the fifth-highest mark in the league.
Lower
Anthony Richardson at Houston – lower than 56.9 completion percentage
This feels like a trap. Richardson's inaccuracy has been a major talking point in each of his starts and hasn't come close to hitting this mark in any of his four full games this season. Even his expected completion percentage (per NFL Next Gen Stats) is 60%, the second-lowest mark in the league to Brock Purdy. The Texans' secondary has been relatively friendly to opposing quarterbacks in terms of touchdowns, but their yards per attempt allowed and completion percentages (56.3 percent) are far stingier.
Zay Flowers at Cleveland – lower than 57.5 receiving yards
Flowers is questionable to suit up after suffering an ankle injury in Monday night's win over the Buccaneers. He managed only one limited practice throughout the week, so if he is active, we should expect that he won't be playing at full strength and perhaps as a decoy. For the purposes of this prop that's the ideal scenario.
If he does play a full snap count, this is certainly a more difficult pick to see get home. However, I'm interested to see how the Cleveland offense and defense respond to Jameis Wionston being under center, potentially leading a more competent offense.
Marcus Mariota at Chicago– lower than 17.35 fantasy points
Perhaps the Commanders will play Jayden Daniels (ribs) but that seems like a short-sighted decision. If Mariota is leading the way, he'll face a far tougher test than he did in relief in Week 7 against the Panthers. The Bears have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (14.2), with only Trevor Lawrence topping where this prop has set. Mariota's track record doesn't suggest he'll be the second.
Nick Chubb vs. Baltimore - lower than 49.5 rushing yards
The Ravens pass defense is a disaster, but their run defense is arguably the best in the league, as they've yet to allow an opposing running back top 50 yards on the ground in any game. While that's not necessarily predictive, it does illustrate how tough they have been on opposing backs.
Meanwhile, Chubb still isn't likely to be playing at full strength and will be in a committee of some sort. He also understandably was very inefficient in Week 7, his first game in roughly 13 months. This should be a quiet game from the Browns' rushing attack.
