The NFL postseason kicks off this weekend, with 14 teams left in contention to become Super Bowl LVIII champions. Let's take a look at each team's chances of advancing this weekend and potentially going all the way while examining some of the key stats that could help guide your NFL playoff betting strategies. All odds below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
AFC
Baltimore Ravens (wild-card round: bye, Super Bowl odds: +310)
Pros:
- Had an NFL-best 13-4 record and +203 point differential in the regular season
- Could get Mark Andrews (ankle) back during the playoffs, and backup TE Isaiah Likely has filled in admirably with 322 yards and dive TDs in six games since Andrews' injury
- Fourth-ranked scoring offense (28.4 PPG)
- Defense allowed a league-low 16.5 PPG
Cons:
- Lamar Jackson has a 1-3 career playoff record, with four total TDs and seven turnovers
- Justin Tucker went 1-for-5 on FG attempts beyond 50 yards in the regular season
Outlook: Baltimore had the NFL's best regular season but opponents that have had more time to dedicate game plans to stopping Jackson have found more success against him. This can be seen in both his playoff struggles and Baltimore's 3-3 record within the division compared to 10-1 against all other opponents. It's possible the 2023 MVP front-runner has outgrown those struggles, and a first-round bye has the Ravens one step closer to the Super Bowl, but bettors should plan on some low-scoring Baltimore playoff games with the defense leading the way.
Buffalo Bills: (wild-card round: -535 favorites vs. Steelers, Super Bowl odds: +650)
Pros:
- Fourth-ranked +140 point differential, with no losses by more than six points
- NFL-best five-game winning streak heading into playoffs
- Josh Allen produced 44 total TDs
- Fourth-ranked scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed)
Cons:
- Allen threw 18 interceptions
- Stefon Diggs' last eight games: 43.6 yards per game and one TD
Outlook: Buffalo heated up down the stretch and wound up with the No. 2 seed despite entering Week 18 without having sewn up a playoff spot. The Bills are heavy favorites in the wild-card round after having gone 7-2 at home, but covering a 10-point spread against the Steelers won't be easy, considering the Bills have won by more than seven points only twice since Week 5. Diggs' under the radar decline has put even more pressure on Allen's shoulders; the QB is a touchdown machine, but his turnovers have been costly in previous postseasons, and that seems unlikely to change here. The Bills were just 4-4 on the road, so securing the No. 2 seed was key, as they'll have home-field advantage through at least the Divisional Round.
Chiefs: (wild-card round: -218 favorites vs. Dolphins, Super Bowl odds: +1000)
Pros:
- Patrick Mahomes is 9-1 in the playoff at Arrowhead Stadium and 11-3 overall
- Defense allowed the second-fewest points (17.3) and yards (289.8) per game
- Only one loss by more than one possession
- Travis Kelce has a TD in nine of his last 10 playoff games, and at least 95 yards in seven of the last nine
Cons:
- Mahomes threw 27 TDs (second-fewest in his career) and a career-worst 14 interceptions this season
- Rashee Rice (938) was team's only WR with more than 460 yards
Outlook: Kansas City's poor wide receiver play has been well documented, and it dragged down Mahomes' numbers, while Kelce fell short of 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015. Mahomes has yet to play a road playoff game but that will likely change this postseason with the Chiefs seeded No. 3 in the AFC. Nonetheless, KC's Super Bowl odds look pretty appealing at +1000. Mahomes and Kelce are proven playoff performers, and the rookie Rice emerged down the stretch with 518 yards in his last six games, and this is the best defense the Chiefs have had in the Mahomes era.
Texans: (wild-card round: +114 underdogs vs. Browns, Super Bowl odds: +5000)
Pros:
- Rookie QB C.J. Stroud posted a 23:5 TD:INT in 15 games
- Defense allowed a league-low 3.35 yards per carry to RBs and a league-low 17 passing TDs
- Committed league-low 14 turnovers
- Won high-stakes Week 18 game vs. Colts while some other playoff teams rested
Cons:
- Lost WR Tank Dell (lower leg) for the season and could be without Noah Brown (back) and Robert Woods (hip) as well
- First playoff game for both Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans
Outlook: Stroud hit the ground running as a rookie, leading the Texans to a 10-7 record and the AFC South title. Outside of WR Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz, Stroud may not have many viable targets against the stout Browns defense in the wild-card round, which is why the Texans are home underdogs. The Texans will go as far as Stroud takes them, and they should only get better as they build up the franchise QB's supporting cast, but this young team will have to learn on the fly to make an unlikely deep run this year.
Browns: (wild-card round: -135 favorites at Houston, Super Bowl odds: +3000)
Pros:
- Defense allowed a league-low 270.2 yards per game
- Defeated both Ravens and 49ers
- Joe Flacco went 4-1 with 1,616 yards in five starts and multiple passing TDs in each game
Cons:
- Lost star RB Nick Chubb (knee) for the season Week 2
- Defense allowed 29.6 PPG on the road
Outlook: Deshaun Watson's season-ending shoulder injury was a blessing in disguise for the Browns, as Flacco has been much better than Watson was prior to getting hurt. The offense has come alive under Flacco while Cleveland's Myles Garrett-led defense has been outstanding all season, though the defense was much stingier at home (13.9 PPG allowed) than on the road (29.6), which doesn't bode well for a wild-card team. Cleveland has proven it can hang with the NFL's elite, but the Browns also don't seem substantially better than anyone on paper, especially given the perpetual risk of the magic running out for Flacco, who turns 39 this coming Tuesday.
Dolphins: (wild-card round: +180 underdogs at Kansas City, Super Bowl odds: +1800)
Pros:
- Tyreek Hill led NFL in receiving yards (1,799) and receiving TDs (13)
- Offense led NFL in yards (401.3) and ranked second in points (29.2) per game
Cons:
- 1-5 with a -91 point differential against playoff teams
- 0-10 in last 10 games with kickoff temperature under 40 degrees
- RB Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) and WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) both missed team's previous game
Outlook: Miami's Week 18 home loss to the Bills was crucial, as the Dolphins would have been the No. 2 seed with a win. Instead, they fell all the way to No. 6 and will travel to Kansas City, which is expected to have frigid single-digit degree temperatures Saturday night. Miami's banged up, can't beat good teams, and can't win in cold weather, so the 4.5-point spread in the Chiefs' favor seems low in Hill's return to Kansas City. Then again, far stranger things have happened in the NFL than one 11-win team beating another.
Steelers: (wild-card round: +400 underdogs at Buffalo, Super Bowl odds: +12000)
Pros:
- Went 3-0 with 27.0 PPG in three games with Mason Rudolph at QB
- Najee Harris rushed for 312 yards and four TDs during season-ending three-game winning streak
- Had eight comeback wins (tied for most) and four fourth-quarter comebacks (tied for second-most)
Cons:
- Only playoff team with negative point differential (-20)
- Coach Mike Tomlin is 3-8 in his last 11 playoff games
- Won't have DPOY candidate T.J. Watt (knee) for wild-card round and likely beyond
Outlook: Pittsburgh heated up down the stretch to sneak into the playoffs at 10-7, as surprisingly strong QB play from Rudolph coincided with significant improvement from the running game to power the team into the postseason. Tomlin's recent lack of playoff success can be chalked up to him getting the most out of limited rosters just to make the postseason, but this team seems to fall squarely into that category, though the Bills are a good draw for Pittsburgh all things considered given Buffalo's proclivity for beating itself.
NFC
49ers: (wild-card round: bye, Super Bowl odds: +220)
Pros:
- 19-5 in games started by Brock Purdy (including playoffs)
- Christian McCaffrey led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards
- Scored third-most PPG (28.9) and allowed third-fewest (17.5)
- Have won at least one playoff game in last seven trips to postseason
Cons:
- Six NFC Championship appearances since 2011, no Super Bowls
- Beaten soundly by Ravens
Outlook: The 49ers are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. They are relatively healthy (McCaffrey's late-season calf injury appears to be minor) and have looked close to unstoppable for stretches of the season, though the Ravens won by two touchdowns in San Francisco to end a six-game 49ers win streak in Week 16. The biggest knock on the 49ers could be that they have been in similar positions numerous times recently and failed to get the job done, including NFC Championship losses in each of the last two seasons. San Francisco will likely be favored in any game it plays this postseason.
Cowboys: (wild-card round: -360 favorites vs. Packers, Super Bowl odds: +750)
Pros:
- Second-best point differential in NFL (+194)
- 8-0 home record, with 37.4 PPG and 15.9 PPG allowed
- Dak Prescott led NFL with 36 passing TDs
- CeeDee Lamb led NFL with 135 catches, ranked second in receiving yards (1,749) and third in receiving TDs (12)
- Defense allowed fifth-fewest yards (299.7) and points (18.5) per game
Cons:
- Haven't reached NFC Championship Game since 1996
- 4-5 road record
Outlook: Dallas has a great opportunity to reach its first NFC Championship Game since 1996, as the Cowboys have been dominant at home and will be at AT&T Stadium through the Divisional Round. The offense has been electric at home, led by the Prescott-to-Lamb connection, while Micah Parsons and the defense turned in a top-five season as well. Dallas has been very beatable on the road, though, so the No. 2 seed will be hoping that the 49ers slip up before the NFC Championship Game.
Lions: (wild-card round: -175 favorites vs. Rams, Super Bowl odds: +1800)
Pros:
- RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 24 TDs
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked third with 1,515 receiving yards, tied Hill for second with 119 catches
- Tied for most regular-season wins in franchise history
- Allowed fewest fantasy points in the NFL to RBs
Cons:
- No playoff wins since 1992
- TE Sam LaPorta (knee) could miss wild-card round
Outlook: Only one other team in Lions history won 12 regular-season games, and that was also the last team to win a playoff game for this franchise, as the 1991 edition went 12-4 in the regular season before beating the Cowboys in the Divisional Round early in 1992. This year's group has a confident swagger about it, but the surging Rams are a tricky wild-card round matchup for Detroit, as LA was the second-best defense at containing RBs. Defending TEs was a weak point for the Rams, but coach Dan Campbell's decision to play his starters Week 18 led to LaPorta's knee injury. If the Lions beat the Rams, it would likely set up a rematch of the one-point Week 17 loss in Dallas, which featured a controversial penalty on a two-point conversion followed by an ill-advised decision from Campbell to still go for two after being backed up.
Buccaneers: (wild-card round: +130 underdogs vs. Eagles, Super Bowl odds: +6000)
Pros:
- WR Mike Evans tied for league lead with 13 TDs
- Fourth straight playoff appearance
- Tied for fewest TDs allowed to RBs (seven)
Cons:
- Allowed fourth-most passing yards
- Worst record among division winners (9-8)
Outlook: The Buccaneers are back in the playoffs in their first year post-Tom Brady, as their 9-8 record was good enough to win the weak NFC South. They're home underdogs in the wild-card round, even against the reeling Eagles, but there's plenty of playoff experience on this team, the defense has executed a bend-don't-break strategy successfully while allowing just 19.1 PPG, and Evans is still playing at an elite level
Eagles: (wild-card round: -155 favorites at Tampa Bay, Super Bowl odds: +1800)
Pros:
- Started this season 10-1 after making Super Bowl last season
- Jalen Hurts produced 38 totals TDs
Cons:
- Went 1-5 to close regular season
- Allowed second-most passing yards per game
- Point differential of +5 is second-worst among playoff teams
- Could be without WR Devonta Smith (ankle) and possibly A.J. Brown (knee)
Outlook: The Eagles looked like the best team in the NFL for the first half of the season but faded down the stretch, as the offense's continued success in short yardage situations thanks to the tush push was overshadowed by all the big plays the defense gave up through the air. Philadelphia certainly has the talent to win in Tampa Bay despite the struggles down the stretch, but a long playoff run seems unlikely given how bad the Eagles looked over the past few weeks, and having a couple key players banged up doesn't help matters.
Rams: (wild-card round: +145 underdogs at Detroit, Super Bowl odds: +4000)
Pros:
- Finished regular season with 7-1 stretch
- Core of coach Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp and DT Aaron Donald won Super Bowl LVI
- Puka Nacua set WR rookie records and second-year RB Kyren Williams broke out
- Allowed second-fewest fantasy points and second-fewest receiving yards to RBs
Cons:
- Went 1-6 against playoff teams before Week 18 win over resting 49ers
- Tied for second-most TDs allowed to tight ends (eight)
Outlook: The Rams were one of the hottest teams down the stretch, but it's possible that run was fool's gold, as three wins during that 7-1 stretch run came by one point, and LA beat only one playoff team all year before a Week 18 win in a battle of the backups against the 49ers. Coach Sean McVay has plenty of weapons to play with in Kupp, Nacua and Williams, and a Lions team that's heavily reliant on RBs and battling a key injury at TE offers an ideal matchup for a Rams defense that excelled against RBs and struggled against TEs.
Packers: (wild-card round: +285 underdogs at Dallas, Super Bowl odds: +9000)
Pros:
- Finished on three-game winning streak
- Youngest team in NFL
- RB Aaron Jones topped 100 rushing yards in each of last three games
- WR Jayden Reed scored seven TDs in last eight games
- Only one of Jordan Love's 11 interceptions came from Week 10 onward
Cons:
- One of two teams to sneak into playoffs at 9-8
- No player reached 800 receiving yards or 800 rushing yards
Outlook: Green Bay's rebuild is well ahead of schedule, as the team's in the playoffs in Love's first year under center with an inexperienced group of pass catchers. The Packers played the Rams without Stafford and came back against the Saints after Derek Carr got hurt. Those pair of lucky breaks coupled with a weak NFC allowed Green Bay to sneak into the last playoff spot. Love deserves credit for cutting down on turnovers in the second half of the season, and finally having Jones healthy down the stretch made a big difference, but the 7.5-point spread in Dallas seems low given the disparity in talent and experience between these teams and the Cowboys' stellar play at home.
