NFL Reactions: Conference Championship Games

The Super Bowl is a big party day for many fans. We love the big game, but we often have a lot of distractions due to parties. On championship Sunday, it's often a much more focused day for fans. When these games are competitive, this is my favorite day of the playoffs. As the schedule for these games was set, many were disappointed that the Ravens versus Chiefs wasn't the late game. I have to admit, the NFL got it right. We saw one of the most incredible comebacks in playoff history when the 49ers topped the Lions.

Chiefs at Ravens

• Wow! After the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Christmas Day, there was talk that they could miss the playoffs. I didn't believe that. However, I did think they wouldn't be a serious contender to make a deep AFC playoff run. It was hard to buy into a narrative that Patrick Mahomes could will this version of the Chiefs to a Super Bowl. Clearly, I was wrong.
• Also, it was hard to argue that the Ravens were, by far, the best team in the league. Baltimore had MVP play all season from Lamar Jackson. The offense was well designed by Todd Monken. In terms of the defense, they were excellent at all three levels. Their defensive coordinator, Mike McDonald, kept offenses on their heels all year. On this day, they weren't able to play that way for the full 60 minutes.  
• When I previewed this game, I said the Ravens would win seven or eight times out of 10 in this matchup. However, when I picked the game, I thought the KC experience in big games would be the difference. That led me to pick Kansas City by a 19-16 margin. Ultimately, when a big play was needed, the Chiefs converted. Conversely, when the Ravens needed the big play, they fell short. 
• I thought the Ravens had a massive edge in the running game. I have openly complained all year about the coaching staff's love affair with Justice Hill. Sure, he has games when he gets yardage. That said, he's not a sustaining runner. There's too much boom-or-bust to his game. I felt that the Ravens would pay (at some point) for using him over Gus Edwards. On the first drive, Hill was on the field, and it didn't surprise me they went three-and-out. As the game went on and they trailed, the game script took the rushing attack away from them, so neither RB was relevant.
• When the Chiefs were on offense, I thought they'd need to lean on the run game to have their best success. Andy Reid didn't feel the same way. Travis Kelce was a beast. In the first half, he had nine catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. The run game was used, but it was the secondary option. I was stunned that the Ravens didn't make a concerted effort to take Kelce out of the game. As a result, the Chiefs scored two early TDs and took a 17-7 lead into the half.
• While Kansas City was rolling out to their double-digit halftime lead, Baltimore had one big play. As we've seen many times, Lamar Jackson broke free from a sack. He then bought a little time and found Zay Flowers for a 30-yard TD. Otherwise, there were a number of Ravens' punts, and Jackson also lost the ball on a strip sack. Baltimore had about 70 yards on their TD drive but only about 30 yards in the rest of the half.
• The second half was a different story. The Chiefs were no longer able to move the ball. They struggled to move the chains and were punting on almost every possession.
• As a result, their defense was on the field way too much. With each passing drive, we could see them running out of gas. This was the chance the Ravens needed.
• We saw the Ravens starting to move the ball with ease. Unfortunately, mistakes crushed them. With the game still 17-7 at the end of the third quarter, the first play of the fourth quarter was going to be pivotal. Zay Flowers caught a pass over the middle and dove for the end zone. On his way in, L'Jarius Sneed stripped the ball out. The Chiefs recovered. It was a major opportunity lost for Baltimore.
• Again, with KC unable to move the ball, Baltimore quickly got the ball back. They made it all the way into field-goal range. Inexplicably, Lamar Jackson took a deep end-zone shot in triple coverage to Isaiah Likely. It resulted in an easy interception for the Chiefs.
• The Ravens would still have a chance to come back. They forced another Chiefs' punt. Baltimore drove the ball deep enough to get a field goal from Justin Tucker to close the score to seven points. There was still 2:34 left in the game. The Ravens had two timeouts. Defensively, they forced the Chiefs into a third-and-nine from their own 46 with 2:00 left. With the game on the line, Patrick Mahomes launched a 32-yard pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The veteran made sure to secure the ball in his belly. Game over.
• For the Chiefs, they played like a champion. They made big plays at the biggest times. Defensively, they had three takeaways. Offensively, they didn't turn the ball over. Coach Steve Spagnuolo dialed up a couple perfect blitzes that worked out. It wasn't the flashiest win, but that's often the nature of championship football. For this team, the Super Bowl is the expectation. Their regular season may not have been fantastic, but the end result is that they are in the Super Bowl again.
• I feel terrible for Lamar Jackson. He's now 2-4 in playoff games. The win last week against the Texans did little for his playoff reputation. It was always going to be his performance on the bigger stage against the top competition that would fuel the public's perception of the veteran QB. Throwing two interceptions and producing just one TD in a home loss will only make the critics louder. Jackson's story is far from complete. He's only been in the league for six years. At this point, unless he gets to a Super Bowl, the questions about his ability to 'win the big one' is going to be brought up every time he's in the playoffs. 

Lions at 49ers

• When this game started, it was clear the stage was not too big for the Lions. They received the opening kickoff. On that first drive, they used their advantage in the running game to go right down the field. A perfectly designed run to Jameson Williams turned into a 42-yard TD.
• The next time they had the ball, they blended in more passing with the run game. Again, they went right down the field. A TD run from David Montgomery made it 14-0. That was the score to end the first quarter. Detroit couldn't have asked for a better start.
• As the first half unfolded, I realized I had underestimated Detroit's ability to have success passing the ball in the middle of the field. For most of the season, the 49ers were extremely difficult to pass the ball against in that area of the field. I believed that the advantage was significant in San Francisco's favor. Both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta had consistent success in moving the chains. It was Detroit who had the edge against the best part of the San Francisco defense.
• On the other side of the ball, the 49ers were outmatched by a Lions defense that had been a very weak unit for most of the season. On their first drive, they tried to run the ball against the strength of the Detroit defense. That led to a punt. As the 49ers fell behind, Brock Purdy was dropping back to pass more often. However, the Detroit pass rush was getting consistent pressure. That led to Purdy looking shaky. For much of the first half, he was very inaccurate. Not only did he throw an interception that led to a Lions' touchdown that extended the lead to 21-7, but a pair of other drives ended with punts. 
• Playing with a double-digit lead encouraged the Lions to lean heavily on the run. In addition to the team having success on the ground, they were shortening the game. Detroit even ran on a third-and-12 that Jahmyr Gibbs converted into a first down. Unless the 49ers were going to figure out a way to stop this offense, the Lions had their opponent right where they wanted them. 
• At the half, the 49ers were trailing 24-7. It was going to take a minor miracle for San Francisco to come back. No matter how good their offense can be, the Lions went into the locker room knowing a ball-control offense would likely be enough to earn them a birth in the Super Bowl.
• When the second half started, the 49ers had the ball. They looked great in moving the ball past midfield. However, they went right back to looking like they did in the first half. They couldn't have been happy coming away with just a field goal to cut the Detroit lead to 14. 
• Afterwards, the Lions had their chance to answer. They also looked like the same team we saw in the first half. Detroit breezed down the field. After getting into field-goal range, they had a third down and four. Detroit called an odd play call when they handed the ball off to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and he came up short. Knowing Dan Campbell, it was no surprise that he opted to go for it on fourth down. Instead of going for the field goal to extend the lead to three scores, they threw an incomplete pass.
• With a bit of life, San Francisco quickly moved the ball down the field with most of the damage on a 51-yard pass to Brandon Aiyuk. A couple plays later, Aiyuk scored to cut the lead to seven. At this point, there were 20 minutes left in the game. 
• I know the Lions fans have had some rough times over the decades. I can't imagine how they felt on the first offensive play they ran after the Aiyuk touchdown. A handoff to Jahmyr Gibbs became a disaster. The rookie fumbled the ball and Arik Armstead recovered. A few plays later, Christian McCaffrey ran in his second TD of the day. Three minutes remained in the third quarter and these teams were tied at 24. If momentum was a real thing, the 49ers had it all at the moment.
• When the Lions got the ball back, both Sam LaPorta and Josh Reynolds were unable to hang onto passes that would've moved the chains. As a result, they went three and out. So on their two recent drives, they ran four plays. They were forced to give the ball back to the 49ers. There still were two minutes left in the third quarter. 
• As the game moved into the fourth quarter, the 49ers were moving the ball rapidly down the field. I was surprised that Kyle Shanahan used a timeout with over 12 minutes left. In a close championship game, we've seen games coming down to whether a team has a timeout left. After taking it, Brock Purdy was sacked on two straight plays. Still, the 49ers were in field-goal range, and Jake Moody converted to give San Francisco their first lead of the game, 27-24. These teams still had about 10 minutes left to earn their way to the Super Bowl.
• Detroit definitely needed something to flip the momentum back in their direction. They seemed to get it on an intermediate pass to Jameson Williams. The throw was almost intercepted by Ambry Thomas, but Williams was able to wrestle the ball away. That gave the Lions the ball over midfield. As the drive continued, the Lions faced a fourth-and-three. Again, Dan Campbell could have tied the game with a field goal. Of course, the Lions left their offense on the field. Knowing the game was on the line, the 49ers brought pressure. As we've seen over the years, Jared Goff often struggles when under pressure and on the move. You guessed it. Goff missed a wide open Amon-Ra St. Brown on a pass that would have had them near the 10-yard line. The 49ers now had the ball with a little more than seven minutes left. 
• It didn't take long for coach Campbell to pay for his mistake. After relying largely on the passing attack, Christian McCaffrey started to assert himself on the ground. It took about four minutes for the 49ers to drive down the field. After McCaffrey moved the ball inside the five-yard line, he needed a breather. That led to Elijah Mitchell scoring a short TD. That put San Francisco up by 10 points with three minutes left. Now, it was the Lions who needed a small miracle.
• Knowing the Lions needed two scores, the 49ers still brought pressure. However, they had their defensive backs give more cushion than usual to keep Detroit from making big plays. As expected, the defensive plan helped the Lions move the ball all the way down the field. But as they had the ball inside the five-yard line with about a minute left, the Lions made another big mistake. They had three timeouts. If they scored, and if they didn't get the onside kick, the 49ers would have needed to get a first down to end the game. Instead, they ran David Montgomery. He was stopped short of the goal. That forced the Lions to burn a timeout. Although they scored on the next play, they now needed an onside kick to have any chance to win. With percentages going against the Lions, they were unable to recover the kick.
• The 49ers pulled off a minor miracle to advance to the Super Bowl. Until Detroit scored their late TD, San Francisco had scored the first 27 points of the second half. They showed mental toughness. They showed the ability to make adjustments. They also needed some luck. In advancing through the NFC, they needed to score 10 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Packers in the divisional round. In this game, they trailed by 17 at the half. The 49ers may not have been dominant in the playoffs. Ultimately, it doesn't matter. They will now face the Chiefs for the title. 
• This was a bad beat for the Lions. Dan Campbell's aggressiveness was a big reason that Detroit had a great season. He stuck with what got him to this game. Many will rightfully question his decisions. Had they kicked one of the two potential field goals, it's possible the 49ers wouldn't have played a prevent defense on that last drive. Maybe the Lions wouldn't have won (or tied/ sent to overtime) after all. That said, a made field goal (or two) could have changed the momentum. It may have made the 49ers tighten up a bit more. The answer is that we'll never know. This is really tough for Lions' fans. I'm sure that many were making their Super Bowl plans at halftime. Let's not lose complete focus, though. This team is one of the best in the league. It's very possible they're still on the rise. It's not easy to have been this close, only to come short. There's no guarantee they'll be back to the NFC Championship, but let's hope they continue to build on what they've done with this franchise.